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Yglesias

Resignations in Germany

Franz Josef Jung, Defense Minister of Germany at the time of the Kunduz airstrikes gone bad, got demoted to the Labor Ministry in the post-election cabinet reshuffle and will now be resigning from the cabinet altogether. General Wolfgang Schneiderhan and State Secretary Peter Wichert have already resigned over this matter.

In light of the fact that all this is happening in part because of an increased American emphasis on the need to reduce civilian casualties, it does strike me as worth wondering whether you can imagine anything comparable happening in the United States? In any bureaucratic organization, it’s one think to adopt rules or policies saying that such-and-such is a priority. It’s another thing entirely to demonstrate that doing such-and-such is, in fact, crucial to one’s career.

Climate Progress

Toronto Star: ‘Why media tell climate story poorly’

ImageThis piece by Tyler Hamilton, energy and technology columnist for the Toronto Star, was first published  here.

I apologize on behalf of my profession.

If it’s true that Canadians and Americans have become less concerned about the potential impact of climate change, and that more consider global warming a hoax, some blame can certainly be directed at the news media.

“The media (are) giving an equal seat at the table to a lot of non-qualified scientists,” Julio Betancourt, a senior scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey, told a group of environment and energy reporters during a week-long learning retreat in New Mexico.

I was among them, listening to Betancourt and two of his colleagues describe the measurable impacts climate change is having on the U.S. southwest. Drought. More frequent and damaging forest fires. Northward migration of forest and animal species. Hotter, longer growing seasons. Less snow pack. Earlier snow melt.

“The scientific evidence reported in peer-reviewed journals is growing by the day, and it suggests the pace of climate change has surpassed the worst-case scenarios predicted just a few years ago.

Read more

Climate Progress

Climate Progress viewable again by all

My apologies for those who use Internet explorer and had trouble accessing Climate Progress today.

I copied Dr. Curry’s post from MS Word — and that brings in a whole host of hidden HTML, which screws up the page for IE, but doesn’t seem to bother Firefox, which is why I didn’t notice it.

It should be fixed now and I will endeavor to avoid that mistake again.

Yglesias

Urban Institute Skeptical of Watered-Down Public Option

Trigger_mechanism_bf_1923 1

One issue that probably hasn’t gotten the attention it deserves is the growing evidence that the watered-down (i.e., “level-playing field”) version of the public option currently under consideration is so watered-down that it doesn’t really accomplish anything. A new report from the Urban Institute appears to make precisely that argument. As Igor Volsky explains:

The report says that the Senate and House’s public option provisions (which require the public plan to independently negotiate rates with providers) would have little hope of lowering costs in areas of the country with high provider concentration. In areas where hospitals have “too strong a market presence to be excluded from insurer networks,” hospitals could dictate prices, stripping the public plan of its ability to negotiate cheaper rates, the report warns. According to a 2006 study, 86% “of large metropolitan areas were considered to have highly concentrated hospital markets.”

The report’s authors suggest that a better compromise would be a trigger mechanism, in which the trigger, if pulled, unleashes a strong public option:

In the absence of enough political support to pass a strong public option at this time, a “trigger” for a strong public option should be considered for inclusion in health reform legislation whether or not a weak public option is included as a political compromise. Even the threat of such a plan being triggered offers the potential to affect market dynamics between insurers and providers.

I think this suggestion is probably correct, but also a bit politically naive. The concern about a trigger has always been that if the proponents of a public option don’t have the political clout to get one created in the 111th Congress, they’re definitely not going to have the clout necessary to get a trigger pulled by the 114th or 115th Congress. The stronger you make the hypothetical public option, the less likely it seems that the trigger will ever be pulled. The genius of a public option that actually exists, no matter how watered-down or opted-out or whatever, is that it actually exists and whatever good it can do it can actually do. And note Peter Harbage and Karen Davenport’s argument that a level playing field public option could do a great deal of good even without exercising the kind of market power that Urban is confirming the level playing field public option won’t have.

But this should remind us that the majority of funds that employers and people pay in insurance company premiums ends up in the pockets of doctors, hospitals, and other purveyors of medical services. Compared to other countries, Americans pay for more services and we pay more for them. The evidence that all this extra money is getting us extra value is hard to come by. But note that even mild suggestions for mild shifts in direction away from the status quo—such as the recently floated idea that women aged 40-50 with no identifiable risk factors for breast cancer should be spared the expense and inconvenience of mammograms that lead primarily to false positives and painful, unnecessary treatment—tend to be greeted with hostile reaction from the public.

Politics

Bachmann and Palin to unite for Tea Party convention.

palinbachmann1Sarah Palin will star as the keynote speaker at next February’s First National Tea Party Convention, which will take place in Nashville, TN. Also attending: Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN). The right-wing Minnesota congresswoman has previously asserted that Democrats are trying to “sabotage” both her and Palin “to make sure that we don’t have a prominent national voice.” The Washington Independent reports that tickets to see the Bachmann/Palin show “are available for the bargain price of $549.”

Alyssa

Looking Back Not In Anger But In Sadness

Image used under a Creative Commons license courtesy of hugochisholm.

I don’t listen to the radio very much on a day-to-day basis.  We live in the era of the iPod so much that I never even bothered to find a station in the DC area, leaving me lost when I hop in a ZipCar.  But when I go home to visit my parents, I vacillate between KISS 108 and 104.5.  And the latter almost always leads me to that inevitable moment when you revisit something from your past that you remember fondly, only to discover that it was probably always terrible.  This visit around, it was Meredith Brooks’ “Bitch,” a blast from the ancient past, by which I mean 1997.

I can’t say why, exactly, I retain such good memories of the song.  I was thirteen when it came out, and hearing a woman howl “I’m a bitch!” on the radio seemed…daring, I suppose, a year before “Baby One More Time” hit airwaves and a new generation of young female singers began redefining those standards.  But the lyrics are really kind of dreadful, and the message is worse.  ”I’m your hell, I’m your dream / I’m nothing in between.”  Really?  Maybe it’s just that at 25 I feel a little weary of all this nonsense, but do we really want to celebrate that kind of female mercuriality?  Is being nice to a dude part of the time supposed to make up for treating him terribly the rest of the time?  Is it authenticity or just an excuse to act out?  And that whole “I’m a goddess on my knees,” thing?  Well, there are some meaningful ways to talk about the power of submission, but the whole thing comes across as semi-crude and just another one in a list of opposites.  And that’s the most sophisticated the song gets.

I’m not devastated or anything.  But I’ll admit to having perked up a little when I heard those opening chords.  They just won’t be the same next time.

Media

In Praise of the Financial Times

John Judis has done a couple of posts recently noting how much better the Financial Times does of covering events outside the borders of the United States than do American newspapers. I agree and was tweeting the other day about how much more impressive the FT is than American papers. In their defense, American papers do tend to be as-good or somewhat-better at covering U.S. domestic political intrigue (what did Mitch McConnell say yesterday?) but there are lots and lots of good new media and/or specialty news outlets doing that kind of thing.

Politics

New Report: Triggered Public Option Is Better Than The Existing Public Option Provisions

A new report from the Urban Institute argues that a “strong” public option — one that is triggered in the event that overall growth in national health spending exceeds a pre-determined target — may do more to control health care spending than the public option proposals offered in existing legislation:

In the absence of enough political support to pass a strong public option at this time, a “trigger” for a strong public option should be considered for inclusion in health reform legislation whether or not a weak public option is included as a political compromise. Even the threat of such a plan being triggered offers the potential to affect market dynamics between insurers and providers.

The report says that the Senate and House’s public option provisions (which require the public plan to independently negotiate rates with providers) hold little hope of lowering costs in areas of the country with high provider concentration. In areas where hospitals have “too strong a market presence to be excluded from insurer networks,” hospitals could dictate prices, stripping the public plan of its ability to negotiate cheaper rates, the report warns. According to a 2006 study, 86% “of large metropolitan areas were considered to have highly concentrated hospital markets.”

Policymakers can overcome the political challenges of enacting a strong public option — one which compels Medicare providers to participate and establishes Medicare-like reimbursement rates — by placing the plan behind a trigger mechanism which “would allow private insurers the opportunity to show that they can provide affordable coverage under the new health reform rules.”

The report recognizes that “many proponents of a strong public option oppose a compromise relying on triggers because they believe that triggers would never be pulled” and suggests that structuring the trigger around overall growth in national health spending — rather than affordability — would make it more likely that a public plan would be established in the absence of meaningful cost containment.

“Opponents of a public option could argue to override the trigger by claiming that factors other than health plans’ inability to manage spending caused the lack of affordability,” the report warns. A “triggering event tied to affordability” could subject the public option “to the same controversy as now, with opponents arguing that other policies should be adopted instead of a public option and increasing the likelihood of congressional pre-emption of the trigger.”

To avoid these pitfalls, policymakers should consider basing the trigger on “overall growth in national health spending.” “An advantage of using growth in national health expenditures (NHE) is that the data are regularly and consistently reported and are directly related to the purpose of a public option — to create competition with private insurers to reduce health spending growth,” the report notes.

Cross-posted on The Wonk Room.

Health

New Report: Existing Public Option Provisions Would Not Lower Costs, Better To ‘Trigger’ Robust Public Plan

A new report from the Urban Institute argues that a “strong” public option triggered in the event that overall growth in national health spending exceeds a pre-determined target, may do more to control health care spending than the public option proposals offered in existing legislation:

In the absence of enough political support to pass a strong public option at this time, a “trigger” for a strong public option should be considered for inclusion in health reform legislation whether or not a weak public option is included as a political compromise. Even the threat of such a plan being triggered offers the potential to affect market dynamics between insurers and providers.

The report says that the Senate and House’s public option provisions (which require the public plan to independently negotiate rates with providers) would have little hope of lowering costs in areas of the country with high provider concentration. In areas where hospitals have “too strong a market presence to be excluded from insurer networks,” hospitals could dictate prices, stripping the public plan of its ability to negotiate cheaper rates, the report warns. According to a 2006 study, 86% “of large metropolitan areas were considered to have highly concentrated hospital markets.”

Policy makers can overcome the political challenges of enacting strong public option — one which compels Medicare providers to participate and establishes Medicare-like reimbursement rates — by placing the plan behind a trigger mechanism which “would allow private insurers the opportunity to show that they can provide affordable coverage under the new health reform rules.”

The report recognizes that “many proponents of a strong public option oppose a compromise relying on triggers because they believe that triggers would never be pulled” and suggests that structuring the trigger around overall growth in national health spending — rather than affordability — would make it more likely that a public plan would be established in the absence of meaningful cost containment.

“Opponents of a public option could argue to override the trigger by claiming that factors other than health plans’ inability to manage spending caused the lack of affordability,” the report warns. A “triggering event tied to affordability” could subject the public option “to the same controversy as now, with opponents arguing that other policies should be adopted instead of a public option and increasing the likelihood of congressional pre-emption of the trigger.”

To avoid these pitfalls, policy makers should consider basing the trigger on “overall growth in national health spending.” “An advantage of using growth in national health expenditures (NHE) is that the data are regularly and consistently reported and are directly related to the purpose of a public option—to create competition with private insurers to reduce health spending growth,” the report notes.

Yglesias

Dubai World and “Negotiating” the AIG Payouts

Dubai World, which is a state-owned company out of (you guessed it) Dubai, has announced the need to restructure its debt payments creating a lot of uncertainty in markets as to whether this amounts to a sovereign default that should lead people to panic. Willem Buiter says there’s no need to freak out, that this is basically just a real estate company having problems, and Paul Krugman observes that “US bond prices are up right now, suggesting that the Dubai thing hasn’t raised expectations of default.”

It’s worth thinking about this, however, in the context of suggestions from the SIGTARP and others that Timothy Geithner should have driven a harder bargain with AIG’s counterparties rather than paying out the full value of AIG’s debts on credit default swaps. The only way to achieve this would have been for the US government to credibly threaten to default on the debts of a US state-owned company. It looks like the world financial system probably can process the default of a Dubai-owned company without that unduly impairing the ability of major sovereigns to borrow. But still people are clearly at least somewhat nervous. An American default scenario would have posed much bigger risks and would have done so at a period when the whole world looked more vulnerable to shocks.

For what it’s worth, though, Felix Salmon seems to agree with me about the relevant linkages but reaches the opposite conclusion and thinks sovereigns should let state-owned enterprises default on their debts all the time.

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