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FLASHBACK: Bernanke Blew Off Warnings About Housing Crisis Because He’d Been Hearing Them Since 1979

AP091107011859In today’s Washington Post, Binyam Applebaum and David Cho took a long look at the Federal Reserve’s complete failure to take note of the subprime housing bubble. “The Fed’s failure to foresee the crisis or to require adequate safeguards happened in part because it did not understand the risks that banks were taking,” they wrote. “[R]ather than looking for warning signs, the Fed had joined — and at times defined — the mainstream consensus among policymakers that financial innovations had made banking safer.”

Of course, much of the focus — and the blame — falls to current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and Applebaum and Cho rightly remind readers of Bernanke’s 2007 declaration that “we see no serious broad spillover to banks or thrift institutions from the problems in the subprime market.”

And it’s not like there was a shortage of warnings given directly to the Fed regarding the housing market’s problems. In one of many such instances, National City bank’s chief economist told the Fed in January 2005 that “an increasingly overvalued housing market posed a threat to the broader economy.” But “the message wasn’t well received” :

One board member expressed particular skepticism — Ben Bernanke. “Where do you think it will be the worst?” Bernanke asked, according to people who attended the meeting, one in a series of sessions the Fed holds with economists. “I would have to say California,” said the economist, Richard Dekaser. “They have been saying that about California since I bought my first house in 1979,” Bernanke replied.

As it turns out, nine of the top 10 subprime lenders were based in California, “including all of the top five — Countrywide Financial Corp., Ameriquest Mortgage Co., New Century Financial Corp., First Franklin Corp., and Long Beach Mortgage Co.”

This cuts right to the heart of whether the Fed should continue to retain its responsibilities over consumer protection. After all, there were plenty of people out there — both in and out of the government — who saw what was going on.

In 2001, then Treasury official and current FDIC Chair Sheila Bair tried, without success, to get subprime lenders to adopt a code of best practices and allow outside monitors to verify compliance. In 2002, Freddie Mac stopped purchasing some varieties of subprime loans, in an effort to discourage predatory lending.

In 2004, the Greenlining Institute (from California, incidentally) told the Fed that “unscrupulous” lending practices were spreading. Finally, in 2005, Federal Reserve Board governor Edward Gramlich tried to warned his colleagues “of the decline of lending standards and the dangers that this posed.”

All of which signals that the Fed is an institution biased toward the banks that it regulates and unwilling to take action against those banks, even when the financial safety of consumers is at stake. It was by no means the Fed alone that dropped this ball, but it certainly bears a good portion of the burden, which should be remembered as the Senate heads toward a vote regarding whether or not to confirm Bernanke for a second term.

Cross-posted on The Wonk Room.

Health

Lieberman: ‘I Believe President Obama Never Said A Public Option Was Essential To The Reform Goals’

This evening, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) took to the Senate floor to “declare” his support for the health care bill and explain his opposition to the public option and the Medicare buy-in. Lieberman, who has previously insisted that the White House never pressured him to support the public plan, argued that the popular provision is “not necessary” and suggested that President Obama never advocated on its behalf:

The creation of a new government-run health care, so-called public option or the expansion of Medicare to people under 65 is not necessary. Neither proposal would extend coverage to one person who will not be benefited by the new provisions of this bill….I believe President Obama never said a public option was essential to the reform goals he set out to achieve and that most of us have. When the president spoke earlier this year to the joint session of Congress, he said that a public option is, and I quote — ‘an additional step we can take’ end quote. An additional step, he said, but not an essential one. And then he added, and I quote again — ‘the public option is only a means to that end’ end quote. And concluded that we should remain, and I quote again — ‘open to other ideas that accomplish our ultimate goal.’

Watch a compilation of Lieberman’s speech:

During his address, Lieberman delighted — without the slightest hint of irony — in the fact that the Senate bill would expand coverage to “31 million more Americans.” “We say that so often, I think we forget the power of it,” he said. “Thirty-one million people who don’t have health insurance today will have it after this bill passes. That is a giant step forward for our society.”

Lieberman also warned against changing the Senate bill in conference. “This bill as it appears it will emerge from the Senate is delicately balanced,” he said. “I hope there will be no attempt to reinsert a so-called public option in any form in the conference report. That would mean that I would not be able to support the report, and I want to support it.”

Climate Progress

What Bill McKibben doesn’t like about the Copenhagen Accord is precisely what I like about it.

UK’s Miliband calls out China as the Copenhagen spoiler

UNFCCC RIP

I have not been fond of how the United Nations has been running all things climate.   Both CAP’s Andrew Light and I have argued before, “we don’t need 192 nations to come to an agreement on mitigating carbon emissions in order to get the job done. We only need those countries responsible for 85% of emissions to move forward on the pathways identified by the IPCC with a promise to the world to do so in a responsible manner.”

That’s why much of what 350.0rg founder (and occasional CP guest blogger) Bill McKibben doesn’t like about the Copenhagen Accord is exactly what I like about it.  McKibben complains of Obama’s successful effort to prevent a complete failure at Copenhagen:

  • He blew up the United Nations….
  • He formed a league of super-polluters, and would-be super-polluters….

Hurray!

Most of the coverage and analysis on the Copenhagen Accord has been dreadful and devoid of important context, as I’ve said, and that includes McKibben’s analysis, which is, I believe, 100% backwards.

Today Nobelist Paul Krugman wrote of the Congressional debate over health care, “the fact that it was such a close thing shows that the Senate “” and, therefore, the U.S. government as a whole “” has become ominously dysfunctional.” And yet this “dangerous dysfunction,” as he puts it, is solely due to the need for a modest 60% supermajority that could only be dreamed of by those hoping for progress in the Alice-in-Wonderland world of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, where any single nation can veto the outcome:

Read more

Yglesias

Endgame

Stack of questions, with no answers:

— Ezra Klein’s response to Jane Hamsher’s case for killing the bill.

— Dana Houle on Ralph Nader and the ethic of responsibility.

— A better edition of “Politics as a Vocation” than the one I’ve been linking to.

— Surveillance state is more popular than blogs, less popular than cell phones.

— Obama really does deserve the blame for not appointing more liberal judges.

— Krugman on the filibuster.

The only real question about “B.O.B.” is whether it’s the best song of the current decade, as normal people say, or as the pedants would have it, of the previous decade.

Economy

FLASHBACK: Bernanke Scoffed At Subprime Warnings, Said He’d Heard Them Since 1979

AP091107011859In today’s Washington Post, Binyam Applebaum and David Cho took a long look at the Federal Reserve’s complete failure to take note of the subprime housing bubble. “The Fed’s failure to foresee the crisis or to require adequate safeguards happened in part because it did not understand the risks that banks were taking,” they wrote. “[R]ather than looking for warning signs, the Fed had joined — and at times defined — the mainstream consensus among policymakers that financial innovations had made banking safer.”

Of course, much of the focus — and the blame — falls to current Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and Applebaum and Cho rightly remind readers of Bernanke’s 2007 declaration that “we see no serious broad spillover to banks or thrift institutions from the problems in the subprime market.”

And it’s not like there was a shortage of warnings given directly to the Fed regarding the housing market’s problems. In one of many such instances, National City bank’s chief economist told the Fed in January 2005 that “an increasingly overvalued housing market posed a threat to the broader economy.” But “the message wasn’t well received” :

One board member expressed particular skepticism — Ben Bernanke. “Where do you think it will be the worst?” Bernanke asked, according to people who attended the meeting, one in a series of sessions the Fed holds with economists. “I would have to say California,” said the economist, Richard Dekaser. “They have been saying that about California since I bought my first house in 1979,” Bernanke replied.

As it turns out, nine of the top 10 subprime lenders were based in California, “including all of the top five — Countrywide Financial Corp., Ameriquest Mortgage Co., New Century Financial Corp., First Franklin Corp., and Long Beach Mortgage Co.”

This cuts right to the heart of whether the Fed should continue to retain its responsibilities over consumer protection. After all, there were plenty of people out there — both in and out of the government — who saw what was going on.

In 2001, then Treasury official and current FDIC Chair Sheila Bair tried, without success, to get subprime lenders to adopt a code of best practices and allow outside monitors to verify compliance. In 2002, Freddie Mac stopped purchasing some varieties of subprime loans, in an effort to discourage predatory lending.

In 2004, the Greenlining Institute (from California, incidentally) told the Fed that “unscrupulous” lending practices were spreading. Finally, in 2005, Federal Reserve Board governor Edward Gramlich tried to warned his colleagues “of the decline of lending standards and the dangers that this posed.”

All of which signals that the Fed is an institution biased toward the banks that it regulates and unwilling to take action against those banks, even when the financial safety of consumers is at stake. It was by no means the Fed alone that dropped this ball, but it certainly bears a good portion of the burden, which should be remembered as the Senate heads toward a vote regarding whether or not to confirm Bernanke for a second term.

Politics

World Net Daily poll on what to get Obama for Christmas: an ‘arrest warrant’ and a ‘ticket back to Kenya.’

The right-wing website World Net Daily (WND) has been the source of a variety of smears, particularly a campaign to question the legitimacy of President Obama’s citizenship. While WND exists at the fringes of the conservative movement, top Republican legislators frequent the WND radio program and the Republican National Committee, among other GOP organizations, fund WND through e-mail list rentals. The website, which files regular articles about the role of Christianity during the holiday season, has a new Christmas-themed poll which asks, “What would you like to give Obama for Christmas?” Readers have responded by voting for: “a court ruling booting his ineligible self from office, “a one-way ticket back to Kenya,” and “an arrest warrant”:

WND Obama Poll

Politics

‘Conservative of the year’ Dick Cheney denies there have been ‘any results’ from the stimulus.

Today, Human Events named former Vice President Dick Cheney the “conservative of the year,” publishing a laudatory essay on Cheney by former UN ambassador John Bolton. “Cheney knows that the personal attacks on him, as offensive as they are, in reality constitute stark evidence that Obama and his supporters are simply unable to match him in the substantive policy debate,” wrote Bolton. But in an accompanying interview with Human Events Editors Tom Winter and Jed Babbin, Cheney demonstrated that he doesn’t want to actually engage in a “substantive policy debate” by claiming that there haven’t been “any results” from President Obama’s stimulus package:

Dick Cheney is happy about something.Q: And that’s how you would create more jobs?

CHENEY: I would. But you have to work the spending side in terms of trying to wrap up some of the spending that’s going on out there. When you start talking about another ‘stimulus two’ of hundreds of billions of dollars and we haven’t seen any results to speak of, of stimulus one, we can anticipate that the Bush tax cuts that we put in place in ’03 that are going to expire in the end of next year. That is a real tax increase. That is going to happen without Congress having to do anything. It’s going to automatically kick in when those cuts expire. And that affects capital gains and investment income and those are measures that you would clearly not take if you were seriously interested in growing the economy.

Considering that the claim that the stimulus was a a “failure” is regularly thrown around by the right, it’s not surprising that the “conservative of the year” would repeat it. But the fact is that, as the CBO has reported, the stimulus is having its intended effect — creating or saving 600,000 to 1.6 million jobs. Additionally, the CBO found that “gross domestic product (GDP) was 1.2 percent to 3.2 percent higher, than would have been the case in the absence” of the stimulus.

Yglesias

The Racial Politics of Dune and Avatar

I very much enjoyed Annalee Newitz’s critique of the implicit racial politics of Avatar and the contrast with District 9:

In both Avatar and District 9, humans are the cause of alien oppression and distress. Then, a white man who was one of the oppressors switches sides at the last minute, assimilating into the alien culture and becoming its savior. This is also the basic story of Dune, where a member of the white royalty flees his posh palace on the planet Dune to become leader of the worm-riding native Fremen (the worm-riding rite of passage has an analog in Avatar, where Jake proves his manhood by riding a giant bird). [...]

Avatar is a fantasy about ceasing to be white, giving up the old human meatsack to join the blue people, but never losing white privilege. Jake never really knows what it’s like to be a Na’vi because he always has the option to switch back into human mode. Interestingly, Wikus in District 9 learns a very different lesson. He’s becoming alien and he can’t go back. He has no other choice but to live in the slums and eat catfood. And guess what? He really hates it. He helps his alien buddy to escape Earth solely because he’s hoping the guy will come back in a few years with a “cure” for his alienness. When whites fantasize about becoming other races, it’s only fun if they can blithely ignore the fundamental experience of being an oppressed racial group. Which is that you are oppressed, and nobody will let you be a leader of anything.

I did, however, want to chime in and say that I think this is unfair to Dune. The Avatar narrative starts with a form of reactionary anti-capitalism and thus ends re-inscribing the logic of colonialism inside an ostensibly anti-imperialist story. Sully defects to the alien camp, and they swiftly and unproblematically accept him as their (soon-to-be-victorious) leader precisely because of the great tactical acumen to which he (allegedly) has access precisely because he is not a noble Na’vi savage.

In Dune, by contrast, the willingness of the Fremen to accept Paul Atreides as a leader is explicitly portrayed as in part a consequence of colonialist manipulation by the Bene Gesserit missionaria protectiva. Thus, Frank Herbert is more exploring the colonialist logic of this narrative than performing it. And perhaps more important, the Fremen maintain their agency despite accepting Atreides’ leadership. They’ve taken the story of the messiah from the outside and made it their own. Paul becomes much more the vehicle for their concept of planetary transformation and galactic jihad than the leader of the movement. Ultimately, what Paul does and does not want has only a limited relevance to what the Fremen he “leads” decide to do.

Climate Progress

Finally, the truth about the Hadley/CRU data: “The global temperature rise calculated by the Met Offices HadCRUT record is at the lower end of likely warming.”

And the falsehoods about the Russian Institute of Economic analysis are exposed

Everybody but the anti-science disinformers have known for a long time that the Hadley/CRU (Climatic Research Unit) temperature data UNDERestimates — not OVERestimates — the recent global temperature rise.  I’ve repeatedly written about how this data excludes “the place on Earth that has been warming fastest” (see “Why are Hadley and CRU withholding vital climate data from the public?” and “What exactly is polar amplification and why does it matter?“).   So has NASA’s James Hansen (for years) among others.

The disinfomers — people like the Competitive Enterprise Institute –  have been trumpeting yet more ass-backwards disinformation on this, spun from the Russian Institute of Economic Analysis (but debunked by Tim Lambert aka Deltoid and others).  Now the Met Office has buried them with a new analysis, published Friday on their website:

New evidence confirms land warming record

Read more

Security

Bolton Contradicted By Cheney On ‘Aim’ Of AEI Speech

CheneyHailing Dick Cheney as “Conservative of the Year” in the current issue of Human Events, former ambassador John Bolton makes this transparently false claim in reference to Cheney’s speech at the American Enterprise Institute last May:

So, a major Cheney speech at AEI shortly after leaving the vice presidency was neither surprising nor aimed at the new Oval Office occupant. What was surprising, unprecedented and even unpresidential, however, was the Obama Administration’s reaction. Instead of leaving it to allies in Congress, Cabinet officers, or the media to debate the former Vice President, the White House scheduled a speech by the President himself on precisely the same topic.

The idea that Cheney’s speech was not “aimed at the new Oval Office occupant” doesn’t even pass the laugh test. AEI itself billed the speech in precisely that way, and conservative outlets promoted it as essentially an emergency intervention into President Obama’s dangerous refusal to embrace torture as a tool of American national security.

Or, alternatively, you could take Cheney’s word for it. Here’s what he says about the speech in the Human Events interview that ran along with Bolton’s fan letter:

Q: What pushed you into giving that speech [at AEI in May] and making the points you made on interrogations and gathering of intelligence?

CHENEY: When I left government, I did not plan to be active in any political sense of the word. I didn’t have a plan to go out and engage in controversy or make political speeches. What got me here was the notion that they [the Obama administration] were going to do two things: One was to investigate and possibly prosecute the CIA personnel who carried out our policies. And the other was to go after the attorneys in the Justice Department.[...]

And I thought it was just plain wrong not to stand up and defend them as well as to defend what we’d done. And it didn’t look to me like anybody was going to do it if I didn’t do it. And I was perfectly happy to do it.

So even Dick Cheney is completely out front that the speech was, in fact, “aimed at the new Oval Office occupant.” As to why Bolton would assert otherwise, it’s just a necessary part of his through-the-looking-glass argument that there has been nothing at all unusual or unprecedented about Cheney’s relentless attempts to publicly undermine the new president and his policies, and that the only unusual thing is Obama’s puzzling concern with rebutting Cheney’s brave, selfless, and totally-uninterested-in-repairing-his-own-disastrous-legacy “truthtelling” as it’s been relentlessly amplified by right-wing media over the past year.

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