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Bolton: Strike On Iran Is No Problem As Long As It’s Accompanied By A ‘Campaign Of Public Diplomacy’

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad yesterday rejected a year-end deadline set by the Obama administration to agree to a U.N.-sponsored proposal for Iran to ship its low-grade uranium abroad for further processing.

On Fox News today, John Bolton — who has wanted nothing short of a military strike on Iran for years — dismissed any talk of sanctions and lamented that if Israel “take[s] a pass” on attacking Iran, then “Iran gets nuclear weapons.” When host Trace Gallagher wondered if attacking Iran might cause the opposition there to coalesce around the regime, Bolton said that wouldn’t be a problem because all that would be needed is an accompanying public diplomacy campaign:

BOLTON: I don’t agree with that, if handled properly. … I think a careful campaign of public diplomacy in the wake of a military strike could explain to the people of Iran who are knowledgeable and sophisticated, that the attack is not aimed against them, it’s aimed against this regime that they dislike so much.

Watch it:

Unfortunately, this kind of public diplomacy campaign didn’t work out so well coinciding with the U.S. war in Iraq. Indeed, just before the invasion, President Bush addressed the Iraqi people, saying the war “will be directed against the lawless men who rule your country and not against you. … We will tear down the apparatus of terror and we will help you to build a new Iraq that is prosperous and free.”

And while Bolton has routinely ignored questions of how military action will “play out” in Iran and the region, the consequences are real and sobering.

The Carnegie Endowment’s Karim Sadjadpour — an actual Iran expert, not just some war-hawk flack like Bolton — has said that any use of force would all but kill the Iranian opposition movement. “Khamenei and Ahmadinejad would actually welcome a military strike,” he said, adding that “it may be their only hope to silence popular dissent and heal internal political rifts.”

Update

The Wonk Room’s Matt Duss has more on how a military strike on Iran “is probably the best way to kill” the Green movement.

Yglesias

Endgame

I’m too busy acting like I’m not naive:

What you need to know about Copenhagen.

— Good news for people who like federal statistical news.

— Apparently if your brand new Samsung UN46B8500 shows up broken on December 22, the fastest they get a technician out to see you is January 4.

Naomi Klein—oy.

Five myths about a president’s first year.

This Julian Sanchez post got me listening to the underrated “Very Ape.

Politics

To appease conservatives, CPAC organizer promises that gay group won’t speak at the conference.

Earlier this month, conservative gay rights group GOProud announced that it would be a co-sponsor of this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). But the group’s inclusion as a co-sponsor has led to a backlash from the anti-gay right, some of whom are threatening to boycott CPAC if GOProud’s sponsorship isn’t removed. CPAC director Lisa De Pasquale told Hot Air last week that she was “satisfied” that GOProud “do not represent a ‘radical leftist agenda’ and thus “should not be rejected as a CPAC cosponsor.” But David Keene, the head of CPAC’s main organizing group, tried to calm the potential boycott by using a different tactic. In an e-mail to a right-wing radio host, Keene promised that GOProud would not have a speaking spot and that gay rights issues would not be “open to debate”:

In his e-mail response, Keene admitted GOProud “has signed on as a CPAC co-sponsor, but will have no speakers and we told them that, in fact, since opposition to gay marriage, etc are consensus positions (if not unanimous) among conservatives, these topics are not open to debate.” [...]

“I know that there are those who are as opposed to the sinner as the sin, but our view is that CPAC is inclusive and welcomes all of those who agree with us on most issues. I don’t know the GOProud people personally, but we find it difficult to exclude groups because of disagreements on one or two issues no matter how important many of us believe those issues to be … other examples: we have pro-life and pro-abortion co-sponsors, advocates of restrictive and more open immigration, supporters and opponents of the war in Afghanistan and supporters and opponents of some of the restrictions adopted in the war on terror since 9/11,” he continued.

“Some of these issues draw significant support on both sides of the question from the broad movement and these we often debate at CPAC … trade policy, immigration are example … while others like abortion are consensus positions and while we accept those who differ from the consensus, we see no reason for further debate. Gay issues fall within this category,” he said.

Yglesias

Emerging Economy Takeover!

This chart on Paul Kedrosky’s blog is interesting:

global-nominal-gdp 1

This reminds me, though, that I feel like the PPP concept has started to run amok as of late.

Let’s say I’m a company with global operations and I’m trying to figure out what to pay people located in different offices. In this context, the fact that $1 has more purchasing power in Beijing than in Boston or Brussels is very relevant. Similarly, it makes sense in a general kind of way to say that a guy earning $30,000 a year in Beijing is almost certainly enjoying a higher standard of living than a guy earning $30,000 a year in Boston. But the specific reason our $30,000 a year guy is so much better off in Beijing is that China is full of poor people who’ll do work for cheap. Thanks to container shipping and the WTO, a person in Boston can take advantage of poor Chinese people’s willingness to work in factories for very little money. But you have to actually live in Beijing to take advantage of the cheap haircuts, housekeepers, food carts, and whatever else that China has to offer.

To my mind, though, this makes a hash out of the idea that it makes sense to inflate our estimate of China’s output as a whole by using the PPP adjustment. China’s relatively low GDP when not PPP-adjusted reflects the fact that thanks to China being so full of poor people, its domestic market is quite small on a per capita basis. That seems to me to be a real feature of the Chinese economy that we don’t want to “adjust” away.

Alyssa

All I Want for Christmas

Is you guys.  Seriously, readers, you are the single best gift I could have received this year.  I’ll be off for the next two days cooking, opening presents, eating, and generally being familial.  But as a very small token of my regard, I leave you with an exceedingly cute depiction of Mariah Carey as Santa’s curvy little helper:

Politics

Poll: Lieberman’s favorability rating has plummeted in the past two weeks.

Joe Lieberman In recent weeks, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) has faced ire from advocates for the public option, which he successfully forced the Senate to drop from its legislation by threatening to filibuster it. Now, a new CNN poll has found that Lieberman’s “favorable ratings have taken almost a 10-point drop in the past two weeks“:

Sen. Joe Lieberman’s (I-Conn.) favorable ratings have taken almost a 10-point drop in the past two weeks, a new poll found.

31 percent of people told a CNN poll conducted Dec. 16-20 that they had a favorable opinion of Lieberman, a key Senate centrist who’d opposed healthcare reform only until recently. Opinion toward Lieberman, though, was down from a 40 percent favorable rating in the same CNN poll conducted December 2-3 of this year.

Poll respondents’ unfavorable opinion of Lieberman ticked upward over the same period. 34 percent of those polled said they now have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman, compared to 28 percent who have an unfavorable opinion.

Yglesias

How Bad is Doughnut Insurance?

180px-stethoscope-2

Jon Gruber’s contribution to the how should we improve the health care bill says we ought to make the minimum coverage package more generous:

If I could add one thing to the Senate bill in conference committee it would be an improvement in the actuarial values for those individuals and families with incomes in the range of 150% to 300% of the poverty line. The Senate bill provides for relatively limited benefits for those low income individuals — much lower than the House. Given that the Senate bill covers preventive care, and caps out of pocket expenses, this is essentially a “doughnut hole” issue — the Senate bill provides very little coverage (if any) between the preventive care and the out of pocket maximum. Essentially we are putting fairly low income individuals into high deductible plans. Moving towards the House on these actuarial values (even if we don’t get all the way there) would greatly improve the insurance coverage we provide to low income populations.

I have mixed feelings about this. One thing this bill does is transfer resources, on net, from high income people to lower income people. And additional net transfers of resources from high income people to people in the 150%-300% percent of FPL range strikes me as desirable. But I can’t think of any obvious reason why those resources should specifically take the form of non-preventive, non-catastrophic health insurance coverage as opposed to more generous Pell Grants or lower payroll taxes or whatever.

In other words, there’s a general case for having the rich subsidize the poor. And there’s also a specific case for public provision of certain kinds of goods like schools. I think both preventive health care and catastrophic health care fit the specific case. Other health insurance only fits the general case.

But of course my argument hinges in part on how generous bill’s definition of “preventive” is. So how generous is it? Well, since I’m getting this information from the unreliable method of trying to actually read the bill rather than have an expert summarize it for me, I’ll quote the legislative language. I believe the controlling provision is this one:

COORDINATION WITH PREVENTIVE LIMITS.—Nothing in this paragraph shall be construed to allow a plan to have a deductible under the plan apply to benefits described in section 2713 of the Public Health Service Act.

That’s the legislative language that gets glossed as “no cost-sharing for preventive services.” So what does Section 2713 of the Public Health Service Act say? Well, the bill amends it to say:

(a) IN GENERAL.—A group health plan and a health 8 insurance issuer offering group or individual health insurance coverage shall provide coverage for and shall not impose any cost sharing requirements for—

(1) evidence-based items or services that have in effect a rating of ‘A’ or ‘B’ in the current recommendations of the United States Preventive Services Task Force;

(2) immunizations that have in effect a recommendation from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with respect to the individual involved; and

(3) with respect to infants, children, and adolescents, evidence-informed preventive care and screenings provided for in the comprehensive guidelines supported by the Health Resources and Services Administration.

So if these various panels do their jobs right, then I’m not super-concerned about this issue. I wouldn’t have a problem with doing what Gruber wants, but I wouldn’t freak out about it either. The more important issue, I think, is getting the preventive services stuff implemented correctly.

In the long run, it seems to me that insofar as the government is going to make a categorical requirement for insurance companies to provide a government-specified list of services that we might as well cut out the middleman and have the government directly provide coverage for this stuff. The way the bill lays it out seems to me to generate extra paperwork for no real reason.

Health

Republicans Lead A Revolt Against 10 Percent Tax On Indoor Tanning Salons

Sen. Harry Reid’s (D-NV) decision to replace the so-called Botox-tax in the Senate health care bill with a 10 percent levy on indoor tanning salons has sparked quite the outrage. Republican lawmakers, appalled at the idea of using spray tans to maintain those artificial orange glows for the C-SPAN cameras, stumbled and stuttered their way through an incoherent critique of the tax, demanding that Democrats “explain” the new fee and joking that that the government could tax “anyone who goes to the beach” or doesn’t wear sunscreen that blocks “everything that the sun might produce.” Victor Zapanta compiled this video:

In part, Republicans are just playing dumb. Over the summer, the International Agency for Research on Cancer “raised their warning of tanning beds from ‘probably carcinogenic to humans’ to ‘carcinogenic to humans,’” concluding that “the ultraviolet light used in tanning beds (as with the sun’s rays) has been shown to raise the risk of skin cancer.” “The report cited the group’s own research analysis published in 2006, finding the use of tanning beds before age 30 to be associated with a 75% increase in melanoma risk.”

Taxing the cancer causing activity would dissuade Americans from sliding under the UV rays, lower national health expenditures and improve quality of life.

Cross-posted on ThinkProgress.

Alyssa

Artistic Influences

Everybody working in culture’s got ‘em.  Artists love to talk about ‘em.  AllMusic even includes a standard (if sometimes suspect) list of influences and influencees in artist pages.  And as a critic, I’ve got mine, too.  I love A.O. Scott’s mordant tone (This line from his Star Trek review stands as one of my favorite all-time sentences in a critique: “Jim still manages to defy the continuity team and switch hair color from dirty blond to redhead and back again. Don’t worry, he’s still a natural dickhead underneath.”) if not always his conclusions and Manohla Dargis’s crusading spirit.  But if I’m going to name someone who changed not just the way I write about movies but the way I watch them, credit has to go to a less famous source: Tony Palumbi.

Tony and I were buddies in high school.  We were fellow debate nerds, he was on a better swim team than I was.  For a long time, during the summer, he’d meet me after my job at the town swimming pool, we’d bike over to his house, and we’d watch a ton of action movies.  I don’t know that I’d actually seen an action movie before Tony and I started hanging out.  I was pretty freaked out by violent action sequences due to a tendency towards bad nightmares.  He helped me get over that, and to appreciate the art of a good fight scene–and the unique sense of humor that often accompanies such fights.  The movies we watched ranged from ridiculous to awesome, but a lot of them stuck with me, among them Hackers*, Plunkett & Macleane (the combination of which gave me a Jonny Lee Miller fixation for a while…ahh, youth.), Blade, and Starship Troopers.  Maybe I would have gotten there on my own, but without Tony, I’m not sure I would be writing pieces like this one praising our transformation into a fanboy nation.

We sort of fell out of touch towards the end of college and after.  But thanks to the magic of the internet, Tony found me through Ta-Nehisi’s post on my piece on Brittany Murphy.  Turns out, he has a blog that’s a combination of pop culture and humor writing, and it’s really good.  You should check it out.  I clearly get the most out of being back in touch with one of 

*Hackers may be dated as hell, but it is totally awesome, and informed a huge amount of my high school bravado.  If only real-life hacking was so hilarious, and involved so much cross-dressing.  And if only Jesse Bradford had gone on to have an actual career.

Politics

Republicans Revolt Against Tanning Salon Tax: What’s Next? Taxing ‘Anyone Who Goes To The Beach’?

Sen. Harry Reid’s (D-NV) decision to replace the so-called Botox-tax in the Senate health care bill with a 10 percent levy on indoor tanning salons has sparked quite the outrage. Republican lawmakers, appalled at the idea of using spray tans to maintain those artificial orange glows for the C-SPAN cameras, stumbled and stuttered their way through an incoherent critique of the tax, demanding that Democrats “explain” the new fee and joking that that the government could tax “anyone who goes to the beach” or doesn’t wear sunscreen that blocks “everything that the sun might produce.” Victor Zapanta compiled this video:

In part, Republicans are just playing dumb. Over the summer, the International Agency for Research on Cancer “raised their warning of tanning beds from ‘probably carcinogenic to humans’ to ‘carcinogenic to humans,’” concluding that “the ultraviolet light used in tanning beds (as with the sun’s rays) has been shown to raise the risk of skin cancer.” “The report cited the group’s own research analysis published in 2006, finding the use of tanning beds before age 30 to be associated with a 75% increase in melanoma risk.”

Taxing the cancer causing activity would dissuade Americans from sliding under the UV rays, lower national health expenditures and improve quality of life.

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