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The year climate science caught up with what top scientists have been saying privately for years

Key aspects of the climate are changing faster than expected and if we stay on our current emissions path, we face catastrophe

In 2009, the scientific literature caught up with what top climate scientists have been saying privately for a few years now:

  • Many of the predicted impacts of human-caused climate change are occurring much faster than anybody expected — particularly ice melt, everywhere you look on the planet.
  • If we stay anywhere near our current emissions path, we are facing incalculable catastrophes by century’s end, including rapid sea level rise, massive wildfires, widespread Dust-Bowlification, large oceanic dead zones, and 9°F warming — much of which could be all but irreversible for centuries.  And that’s not the worst-case scenario!
  • The consequences for human health and well being would be extreme.

That’s no surprise to anybody who has talked to leading climate scientists in recent years, read my book Hell and High Water (or a number of other books), or followed this blog.  Still, it is a scientific reality that I don’t think more than 2 people in 100 fully grasp, so I’m going to review here the past year in climate science.  I’ll focus primarily on the peer-reviewed literature, but also look at some major summary reports.

Let’s start with the basics.  Heat-trapping greenhouse gases are at unprecedented levels, and the paleoclimate record suggests that even slightly higher levels are untenable:

In two key papers, we learned that the planet is warming from those GHGs just where climate science said it would “” the oceans, which is where more than 90% of the warming was projected to end up (see “Skeptical Science explains how we know global warming is happening: It’s the oceans, stupid!“).  The key findings in the second study are summed up in this figure:

Figure [2]: Time series of global mean heat storage (0-2000 m), measured in 108 Jm-2.

Read more

Media

Matthews: Politico Serves As The Drudge-Like ‘News Conduit’ For Dick Cheney

Last month, Politico conducted an “interview” with former Vice President Dick Cheney. As ThinkProgress noted at the time, the paper’s top reporters — Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen — transcribed Cheney’s attacks on Obama without challenge, criticism, or rebuttal.

Indeed, Cheney has been using Politico as his print version of Fox News. In May, Politico’s Allen was leaked an “exclusive” preview of Cheney’s attacks on Obama’s decision to close Guantanamo. Again in October, Allen “broke news” that Cheney was attacking Obama’s Afghanistan policy. And just last week, Allen again reported a Cheney attack on Obama’s handling of the Christmas Day terrorist incident that was released “in a statement to Politico.”

Does Cheney “have a thing with Politico?” MSNBC’s Chris Matthews asked Politico’s Jonathan Martin today on Hardball. “He uses you like he’d use Drudge or somebody,” Matthews charged. A stunned Martin had no response for why Cheney has been so willing to give Politico “exclusives.” “You’d have to ask the Vice President, Chris,” Martin responded, “I’m not sure.” Matthews kept pressing the issue:

MATTHEWS: I mean, he’s got his own news conduit.

MARTIN: You know, we aggressively report on both sides.

MATTHEWS: It’s not reporting. He feeds you this stuff. … I do like Politico. He’s feeding you guys this crap. [...]

What’s he call up and say? “I got a hot one for you, Jon. Can you take — what’s your email address?” Is that what he does?

Watch it:

Yglesias

Endgame

Just run through it:

— Bryan Caplan’s case for baby-selling makes me want to re-read Susan Moller Okin’s essay on Robert Nozick.

— Did al-Qaeda ever matter that much?

— Fifteen years ago Iran was less than five years away from a nuclear weapon.

— Swedish government’s music promotion site is pretty awesome.

— Mike Shanahan is in DC talking to the Redskins.

Start out the new year with “Walls” from the forthcoming Shout Out Louds album.

Politics

Conservatives Should Learn To Google Before Claiming Obama Doesn’t Use The Words ‘Terror’ Or ‘Terrorism’

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) does some talking.Last week, former Vice President Dick Cheney attacked the Obama administration’s approach to terrorism, saying that Obama has been “trying to pretend we are not at war.” The White House aggressively hit back at Cheney, saying he either “willfully mischaracterized” Obama or is “ignorant of the facts.” Politifact called Cheney’s criticism “ridiculously” false because “a review of Obama’s statements of the past year makes it clear he has often said the United States is at war against terrorist organizations.”

But Cheney’s ridiculous attack wasn’t the only barb launched by conservatives at Obama over things he supposedly doesn’t say. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) complained both yesterday and today that Obama is not “willing to use the word” terror. As the Plum Line’s Greg Sargent pointed out, DeMint’s claim has no merit. Similarly, The New Republic’s Editor-in-Chief Marty Peretz rejoiced on his blog yesterday that Obama “finally” used “the word ‘terror’” in his weekly address on Saturday:

President Obama used the terms “terrorism” and “terrorist” six times in his weekly address to the nation. I don’t know how long it has actually been since he’s uttered those words. But my memory is that it’s been a very long time. By using them, however, he was able to make, as it were, structural corrections, talking about Al Qaeda as “a network of violence and hatred” strung out “from East Africa to Southeast Asia, from Europe to the Persian Gulf.”

Simple research would have let Peretz know that it had “actually been” only two days since Obama referred to the Christmas Day plot as an “attempted act of terrorism” that underlined the need for “continued vigilance on homeland security and counterterrorism efforts.” Indeed, in Obama’s address at West Point announcing his escalation in Afghanistan on Dec. 1, he used variations of the word “terror” six times:

– “America, our allies and the world were acting as one to destroy al Qaeda’s terrorist network and to protect our common security.”

– “Gradually, the Taliban has begun to control additional swaths of territory in Afghanistan, while engaging in increasingly brazen and devastating attacks of terrorism against the Pakistani people.”

– “Years of debate over Iraq and terrorism have left our unity on national security issues in tatters, and created a highly polarized and partisan backdrop for this effort.” 

– “In the last few months alone, we have apprehended extremists within our borders who were sent here from the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan to commit new acts of terror.”

– “We will strengthen Pakistan’s capacity to target those groups that threaten our countries, and have made it clear that we cannot tolerate a safe haven for terrorists whose location is known and whose intentions are clear.” 

– “And that’s why I’ve made it a central pillar of my foreign policy to secure loose nuclear materials from terrorists, to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.”

Peretz also praised a New York Times editorial for using “the words ‘terrorism’ and ‘terrorist,’ locutions it otherwise quite faithfully avoids, especially in its news reports.” Clearly, Peretz is unfamiliar with the New York Times’ ample subject category on its website for “terrorism.” To know this, all he would have to do is use what former President Bush called “the Google.”

Yglesias

Keeping Yemen in Perspective

Sana 1

It’s just words, but the idea, that instability in Yemen is a “global threat” seems obviously overblown. As I said before the challenge posed by Yemen—a country that, I promise you, no prominent American pundits or politicians know anything about—is to articulate the idea that America can have some interests in a place without wildly overstating the extent of those interests.

I wrote about this for The National in an article on the “safe haven” theory of national security:

But there are real questions about how reasonable this fear of safe havens is. For one thing, the strategy is frighteningly unbounded. Today America is worried about chaos in Afghanistan, but there are also indications that al Qa’eda has found safe haven in Somalia and Yemen. Broken states, alas, are not all that rare. To suggest that the United States could succeed in its mission to vastly improve governance in Afghanistan, given enough time and money and manpower, hardly provides evidence that the task could be repeated in Sudan and Nigeria and Chad. If it’s true that the world’s security depends on eradicating every pocket of instability on Earth, then we really are doomed.

These situations are problematic. When examined closely, in most cases there are probably some things we can do that will make them less problematic. Some of those things will be very costly and some will have reasonably low costs. When the costs are low, we should take action. Where exactly to draw the line is going to be hard to say. But it’s necessarily an exercise in line-drawing. Given that you can’t go all in everywhere it would be a huge mistake to randomly go all-in on some in the news hotspot only to find that resources aren’t available to do anything else.

Media

More Tablets

Still not getting this:

If it comes through, demand for electronic books, newspapers and magazines should soar. This will create an exciting design challenge for their publishers to develop seductive ways of presenting their content on e-readers. In theory, e-newspapers could combine the convenience of the printed product with the dynamism of their Web sites. And e-magazines should be more visually compelling with higher resolution images than their Web versions. As well as helping publishers to tackle the thorny problem of how to make money from the Internet, it could enable them to create dazzling new e-media.

Reading news on my computer or my phone is already very convenient, in part because I always have my phone with me and often have my laptop with me. Adding a third device into the mix isn’t going to be more convenient. The presumption here seems to be that there’s some large number of people who find print papers more convenient, but who are nonetheless driven to the web in search of “dynamism.” In fact, I assume that most people who prefer to read on paper are reading on paper, and those of us who read online do so precisely because it seems convenient.

Advances in screen resolution to facilitate higher-quality images would, of course, be welcome if it can be done in a cost- and energy-effective way. But why not just make the screens on laptops better?

Alyssa

The Woman (Or, Thoughts on Sherlock Holmes at the Request of Dara)


Magnifying Glass by Auntie P.
Image used under a Creative Commons license courtesy of Auntie P.



It certainly took me long enough to get around to seeing Sherlock Holmes, for which I apologize.  I promised frequent reader and real-life pal Dara I’d write about the movie, which at long last I have.  I should preface this entry by saying that I’m a bit of mental Holmes fan.  One of the nicest gifts I ever received was the Leslie Klinger edition of the short stories, and I was once drawn into a shouting matching in college over Holmes and the role of depravity in Victorian society.  So that dedication will, by necessity, inform some of what I write here.


First, the plot is sheer and utter rot.  Really, just utter nonsense.  The movie relies heavily on speculations of the occult, which feature but rarely in Holmes stories and for good reason.  They always come across as nonsensical, and while they give Guy Ritchie an excuse to show off some special effects, it means the whole movie is a bit silly.  The filmmakers were always going to have to invent an original plot for a full-length Holmes movie, I think.  They’re short stories for a reason: most of these cases absorb Holmes for several days or a week, and then not fully.  It takes a much more complex mystery to fully absorb Holmes intensely and fully for a significant period of time.  There are some Holmes stories that could be plausibly adapted into a full-length movies, but some of them, most particularly A Study in Scarlet, aka Sherlock Holmes Fights the Mormons, are probably unsaleable for political reasons, or are too tame for today’s tastes, like The Hound of the Baskervilles.  The Final Problem, which has Holmes and Watson journeying across Europe in flight from Professor Moriarty, and Holmes working for months to catch a criminal mastermind, has the scope and drama for a full movie, but it requires substantial setup of Moriarty as a criminal mastermind, something this movie does only intermittently effectively.  The Final Problem could make a marvelous conclusion to a franchise, but only if a) Brad Pitt is not cast as Moriarty and b) the story can be done with the appropriate tension and drama.


My complaints about the plot aside, I actually think the movie does quite a nice job of interpreting Holmes.  There’s a lovely scene towards the beginning of the movie that I think does very well at explaining Holmes’ isolation.  He’s meeting Watson and Watson’s fiancee for dinner, and as Alex Remington and I discussed after watching the movie together, as the movie shows Holmes hearing and noticing everything going on in the restaurant, it’s clear how inescapable and even unbearable his powers of observation make the world for him.  But the scene also ends with a wonderful note: Holmes offends Watson’s fiancee, and they leave, but as they depart, Holmes’ dinner is served.  He ordered early, well-aware that the dinner party wouldn’t make it through the evening, or even to the meal, intact, so there was no reason to wait.  It’s a poignant, subtle self-aware moment.


That said, the film’s great tragedy is in its utter misunderstanding of Irene Adler.  In the movie, she’s an old fiancee of Holmes’, and a master criminal.  She never, however, actually seems exceptionally competent, except in a scene where she handily dispatches and robs a pair of footpads in an alley–Holmes tracks her easily, for example.  And there’s not a lot to her life of crime.  Adler’s just a sassy super-criminal.  She apparently cares about Holmes a lot.  But she’s eye candy, and it’s a waste of time for Rachel McAdams.  It’s particularly unfortunate given what a marvelous character Adler is in the Holmes canon.  In the stories, she’s a genuine adventuress, someone who lives by her own highly articulated moral code.  She’s not a criminal, per se, though she is suspected of being a blackmailer at one point.  The wonderful thing about that suspicion is not that she’s an unrepentant criminal, but that Holmes and others are wrong about her.  They underestimate her both as a survivor, who can elude a great detective, and as a moral being.  Making her a master criminal and nothing else in the movie debases her, and ruins an excellent plot device.

Yglesias

The Tablet Hype

freescaletabletreference2

Andrew Golis observes that the tablet concept has been on the verge of saving the legacy media for fifteen years and that trend shows no sign of stopping. It’s kind of like the old joke about how Brazil is the country of the future and always will be. I’ll say that as a gadget lover, I find the current outbreak of tablet-mania a bit hard to understand. After all, what problem is an Apple tablet supposed to solve?

From the very first iPod I ever owned, I immediately started dreaming of an iPhone. After all, for a few years I’d already gotten used to carrying around a cell phone. Now I had this other cool new device. An iPhone would combine the two devices, simplifying things, and Apple would design it in such a way as to look cool. Obviously a bit more than that went into making the product, but at the end of the day that’s it—your iPhone is an iPod that also makes phone calls and it has an aesthetically pleasing design.

But why do I want a tablet? Magazine publishers seem to want me to want a tablet because after I have my tablet I’m allegedly supposed to want to pay them for tablet versions of their magazines. But that can’t be why I want a tablet. Is it supposed to replace my laptop? Is the idea that conventional laptops are too easy to type on? Or does it replace my kindle somehow? If you could make an iPhone-esque touch screen much bigger and do it at an affordable price, that might be a cool feature to ad to future MacBooks or iMacs—I’m sure programmers could devise something interesting to do with a new user interface—but nothing about typing on an iPhone has ever made me say if only I could replicate this experience in a device that doesn’tfit in my pocket!!!!

Politics

GOP House candidate says defeating liberals is more important than defeating terrorists.

Former state legislator Allan Quist is a Republican running to replace Rep. Tim Walz (D-MN) in 2010. As the Minnesota Independent reports, Quist told an audience at the Wabasha County Republicans Christmas party that the “big battle” he thinks conservatives should be fighting is not against terrorists, but liberals in Washington, D.C.:

Allen Quist, a Republican who is seeking to defeat Rep. Tim Walz in southern Minnesota’s First Congressional District, told attendees of the Wabasha County Republicans Christmas Party in mid-December that beating the “radical” liberals in Washington, D.C., is a bigger battle than beating terrorism.

“Our country is being destroyed. Every generation has had to fight the fight for freedom… Terrorism? Yes. That’s not the big battle,” he said. “The big battle is in D.C. with the radicals. They aren’t liberals. They are radicals. Obama, Pelosi, Walz: They’re not liberals, they’re radicals. They are destroying our country.”

Watch Quist’s full speech:

On NBC’s Meet the Press yesterday, White House homeland security adviser John Brennen remarked, “I think we have to remember who the enemy here is. The enemy is al Qaeda. And as this finger-pointing is going on in Washington here, these partisan politics and agendas, quite frankly, I find it very disappointing that people would use this issue, issue of tremendous import of national security and forget that it is al Qaeda that is killing our citizens.”

Economy

Business Lobbyists Yearn For The Days When Elaine Chao Ran The Labor Department

AP080129010155With the calendar turning to 2010, the Associated Press took a look back at the first year of Labor Secretary Hilda Solis’ tenure, pointing out that “her aggressive moves to boost enforcement and crack down on businesses that violate workplace safety rules have sent employers scrambling to make sure they are following the rules.”

In many ways, Solis has completely reversed the course of the Labor Department that was set by her predecessor, Elaine Chao. And Solis’ crackdown has business lobbyists yearning for the days when Chao ran the show:

“Our members are concerned that the department is shifting its focus from compliance assistance back to more of the ‘gotcha’ or aggressive enforcement first approach,” said Karen Harned, executive director of the National Federation of Independent Business’ small business legal center…Chao has claimed that success was the result of cooperating with businesses to help them understand the myriad regulations. Keith Smith, a spokesman for the National Association of Manufacturers, said his members “want to build upon [Chao's] progress and recognize what’s working.”

Of course, what worked for big business didn’t work at all for workers, as Chao’s Labor Department spent eight years “walking away from its regulatory function across a range of issues, including wage and hour law and workplace safety.”

Consider some of Chao’s legacy. The Government Accountability Office found that her Department “did an inadequate job of investigating complaints by low-wage workers who alleged that their employers were stiffing them for overtime, or failing to pay the minimum wage.” In one survey, 68 percent of low-income workers reported a pay violation in the previous week alone.

The Department’s own inspector general blamed “a lack of management emphasis on worker safety” for unsafe conditions at mines leading to a jump in worker deaths, while fines for workplace safety violations fell so low that employers began “factoring them in as part of their cost of doing business rather than complying with labor laws.” In all, “workers lose $19 billion in wages and benefits through illegal practices, nearly 6,000 American workers die on the job, and at least 50,000 workers die due to occupational disease” each year.

Solis, meanwhile, “slapped the largest fine in [Department] history on oil giant BP PLC for failing to fix safety problems after a 2005 explosion at its Texas City refinery.” She is hiring 250 additional wage-theft inspectors, and “started a new program that scrutinizes business records to make sure worker injury and illness reports are accurate.”

Labor Department staffers were so disgruntled under Chao that they threw a “good-riddance party” to cheer her departure. But for big business, Chao’s tenure meant acting with impunity and facing puny fines on the rare occasions that that were caught, and they’d like to go back.

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