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Paging Neil Cavuto: UAH global satellite data has record WARMEST day for January

“It’s almost certain by now that January 2010 will also be the globally warmest January on the UAH record”

Yes the anti-science crowd, from WattsUpWithThat to FoxNews, have been touting cold snaps over a small fraction of the globe as evidence of the non-exist cooling trend (see “disinformers to media: Please make case for something that isn’t true using data we don’t believe“).

Well now even they have been forced to acknowledge that the global record that’s going to be set this month is, in all likelihood, for warming — because it is showing up on their beloved satellite data (click to enlarge).

UAH 1-10

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Yglesias

Endgame

When I get my money saved:

— Top Everclear reference in a post about international development.

— Industrial production and capacity utilization are increasing. Inventory rebound or real recovery?

— The internet should make it easier to do an international comparison of median income. I can’t find one.

— Glenn Beck thinks liberals hate Jews, doesn’t seem to know that Jews are overwhelmingly liberal.

— Keith Hennessy’s redesign has left me baffled.

— Team B revisionism.

I think the extent of my love for “Jane Says” is a pretty serious character flaw, but I just can’t seem to quit.

Politics

Wall Street Investors Lavish Scott Brown’s Campaign With Money, Get Out The Vote Operations

Scott Brown and Rudy Giuliani

Scott Brown and Rudy Giuliani

Major U.S. banks which instigated the financial crisis are set to pay out “record” bonuses and compensation — $145 billion by some estimates. State Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), the Republican candidate running for the special U.S. Senate election next week, announced yesterday that he would oppose the recently announced financial crisis responsibility fee on large banks.

Brown’s defense of the financial industry has not been ignored by Wall Street. Wall Street’s two largest political enforcers are also out fighting to elect him:

The Wall Street front group FreedomWorks is mobilizing get out the vote efforts for Brown this weekend. FreedomWorks organized the very first tea party protests, and has used its extensive staff and resources to mobilize rallies and advocacy campaigns on behalf of corporate interests. Dick Armey, who as a corporate lobbyist represented AIG, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch during the bailouit, is the leader of FreedomWorks. FreedomWorks is also funded and chaired by Steve Forbes and Frank Sands of Sands Capital Management.

The Wall Street front group Club for Growth is strongly “boosting” Brown and is expected to run ads in support for him. According to recent disclosures, the Club for Growth is funded by a $1.4 million dollar donation from investor Stephen Jacksons of Stephens Groups Inc, a $1.4 million dollar donation from broker Richard Gilder, and $210,000-$630,000 donations from at least 10 other investors and financial industry professionals. The Club is also supporting a slate of candidates to repeal health reform, while its other endorsed candidates have opposed a financial truth commission.

According to a ThinkProgress analysis of Brown’s latest Federal Elections Commission disclosures (part 1, part 2, part 3), filed on Jan. 8 and 11, business executives and Wall Street executives have lavished Brown’s campaign coffers with 11th hour contributions:

Scott Brown contributions

A report on financial industry compensation by New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo found that large financial corporations — including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Citigroup — spend between 25% to 50% of total revenue on paying out executive compensation. While the finance industry often refuses to offer lines of credit to American businesses struggling in this economy, they operate largely as vehicles to make bankers richer.

Brown casts himself as an everyday man, telling reporters “it’s me against the machine.” In fact, Brown is teaming up with Wall Street bankers to kill financial reform and preserve a system of Bush-era unfettered capitalism.

(ThinkProgress interns Nick McClellan and DJ Carella contributed research to this post.)

Yglesias

Mankiw Endorses TBTF Tax

Conservative economist and Bush advisor Greg Mankiw lays out the case for something along the lines of the Obama administration’s TARP recovery fee:

What to do? We could promise never to bail out financial institutions again. Yet nobody would ever believe us. And when the next financial crisis hits, our past promises would not deter us from doing what seemed expedient at the time.

Alternatively, we can offset the effects of the subsidy with a tax. If well written, the new tax law would counteract the effects of the implicit subsidies from expected future bailouts.

Will the tax law in fact be so well written? It certainly won’t be perfect. But it is possible that it will be better than doing nothing at all, watching the finance industry expand excessively, and waiting for the next financial crisis and taxpayer bailout.

Of course the logic of Mankiw’s argument is that the tax should be permanent, rather than temporary. It also implies that the tax rate should be higher than Obama’s proposal. I think it further implies that there should be a graduated rate structure. It’s pretty sad that the administration can’t even come up with a proposal that’s left-wing enough to suit Mankiw’s take on the situation.

Politics

Poll: Majority Of Voters Don’t Believe DADT Is Helping The Military, Support Total Repeal Of The Ban

Today, the New York Times reported that the Pentagon is “stepping up internal discussions on how gay men and lesbians might be able to serve openly in the armed services” in anticipation that Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell (DADT) will be repealed. A small group — put together by Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen to prepare for congressional hearings — recently met on the issue:

A one-page memorandum drafted by staff members as a discussion point for the meeting said that the chiefs could adopt the view that “now is not the time” because of the continuing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and that the military would be better off delaying the start of the repeal process until 2011.

The same memorandum, according to a military official who has seen it, also said that “every indicator of opinion over the past 16 years shows movement toward nondiscrimination based on orientation” and that “in time the law will change.”

Indeed, recent polling confirms this indicator. ThinkProgress obtained results from a November poll on DADT conducted by Democracy Corps that shows likely voters support ending the ban on gay men and women serving openly in the military by a 55 to 35 percent margin:

Democracy Corps Data

Pollsters Stan Greenberg and David Walker note that they “intentionally phrased this question using the most conservative language possible to avoid any suggestion of bias”; other surveys have shown even higher levels of support for repealing DADT. More from the results of likely voters:

53 percent of self-ascribed Republicans oppose lifting the ban. 71 percent of Democrats favor repeal, as do 58 percent of Independents.

– Only 11 percent believe that DADT makes the military stronger. 61 percent believe it makes no difference either way.

63 percent believe that a repeal of DADT should be implemented across the military all at the same time, rather than branch by branch.

– Catholic voters approve of repealing the ban in even higher numbers than the general public, with 64 percent in support and 29 percent in opposition.

In today’s White House press briefing, spokesman Robert Gibbs responded to today’s New York Times story, saying, “[T]here have been discussions in the Pentagon — they will continue. We don’t have — I don’t yet have a time line out of those discussions. But I know they do continue.” In November, Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) said that a DADT repeal would “likely be included as part of next year’s Department of Defense authorization bill in both chambers of Congress.” However, in a C-SPAN interview set to air Sunday, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton (D-MO), who played a “major role” in crafting DADT, said that he opposes repealing the law.

Alyssa

Purists

So, I’ve been reading through Hero Complex’s awesome, three part interview with Neill Blomkamp over the past few days.  And while the guy definitely has a lot of ideas about movies I agree with (original stories are a neat idea! Sci-fi and social messaging can work really well together!  An intimate association with place can only make movies stronger!), I feel like there’s something a bit…precious in his resistance to Hollywood, especially for a guy who made a blockbuster, and whose mentor is Peter Jackson.  Take this:

GB: It’s an admirable goal but other filmmakers have found that, if they want to make well-budgeted special-effects movies, they have to bend to studio pressure to make films that are remakes, adaptations, sequels, etc. Studios feel far more comfortable with “known quantity” properties when the budgets go north of $100 million.

NB: That’s exactly right and that’s precisely the reason I don’t want to do high-budget films. I’ve said no already to doing the Hollywood movie thing with big budgets. And that is the exact reason.

Now, District 9 wasn’t made for Avatar money, but $30 million isn’t pocket change to anyone, not even a movie studio.  The truth is, no matter how often Blomkamp says things like this:

GB: It’s interesting – most directors in your position would have sought a bigger budget at this point, especially if they wanted their next film to be an action or special-effects film. You have a different plan. Could you talk more about that?

NB: I’ve been offered films – a lot of films, in fact – with seriously high budgets, and I’ve turned them all down. The reason is exactly what you said earlier: Once the budgets get bigger, you can’t do what you want as a director, unless you’re Peter Jackson or James Cameron. And even then, the pressure is still on the filmmaker. Even if the studio isn’t clamping down on you, all the pressure is on the director. And if you screw that up, the jeopardy situation is even worse. The way you don’t get yourself in that jeopardy situation is by making films that aren’t as risky financially. I just want to make films that have enough of a budget to pull off high-level imagery but also have a budget that is low enough that I can do what I want.

I just don’t really believe he wants to make a true, tiny-budget indie.  There’s this very weird moment when he says movies based on video games don’t work, and the interviewer asks why he was going to make the Halo movie, and his response is essentially “moving on.”  And then there’s the standard Hollywood-bashing:

GB: So it’s not the familiarity of the face that bothers you, it’s the physics of stardom and Hollywood.

NB: Yeah exactly. That’s it. I don’t want egos and personalities on the set that make it more difficult to make the film. I don’t want people who take the focus away from the movie and the ideas behind the movie.

GB: Considering that stance and what you’ve said about the Hollywood machine, is it uncomfortable for you to promote your movie with an eye toward it as an awards season contender?

NB: A little bit. Sony has kind of pushed for awards and, really, if I feel like people are watching the film because they are interested in the film, then it’s fine. I’m fine with that. But if I feel even remotely like I’m being asked to be a salesman, I have a problem.

This seems really dopey to me.  Look, you can’t want to make movies with significant budgets, and want them to be seen by a lot of people, and have Peter Jackson as your mentor even as you insist he’s not responsible for your success because he’s just so busy, and also be totally pure.  I’m a big believer in and defender of the popcorn movie as an artistic concept.  I don’t see what’s wrong with making something awesome and gorgeous and original and heartrending that also happens to make hundreds of millions of dollars–in fact, doing that, as Blomkamp did this summer, seems like the ultimate purist’s trick on the capitalists and the studios.  But all this pretending strikes me as a little…silly.  If what Blomkamp wants is to make totally pure art, he can always shoot movies of South Africa and get ‘em exhibited somewhere.  If he wants to be an ambassador for the country, he can make documentaries, or work in a trade bureau or a human rights organization.  He chose to do something else, and I’m glad he did, because he clearly has a lot of talent for it.  But he shouldn’t pretend he chose to do anything other than what he did, which is to make outrageously original and moving entertainment.  That’s worth a lot in my book.  Blomkamp shouldn’t be afraid of the profits.

Economy

Why Dodd Should Not Abandon An Independent Consumer Financial Protection Agency

Sens. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Richard Shelby (R-AL)

Sens. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Richard Shelby (R-AL)

Multiple media outlets are reporting that Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) is considering dropping the proposal to create a new Consumer Financial Protection Agency (CFPA) from his regulatory reform bill. The CFPA has been the target of intense lobbying on the part of the banking industry, aided by Republicans and conservative Democrats, and according to Bloomberg News, Dodd “may agree to shelve the proposed agency…and replace it with a division within another federal agency to help advance the broader bill.”

Dodd’s reported deal would involve dropping an independent CFPA, in return for a beefed up consumer division within a bank regulator. According to American Banker, “sources pointed to the way the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency works with the Treasury Department. Though it is part of the Treasury, the OCC conducts its operations freely and is funded by assessments on the banks it regulates.”

If these reports are true, they are extremely troubling. The CFPA is one of the most important parts of the regulatory reform effort, and is meant to correct a deficiency in the current system, under which lots of agencies have consumer protection as part — but not the primary concern — of their missions. As Ezra Klein put it, “the whole point of the CFPA is that those other agencies tend to abandon [consumer protection] because it’s not core to their responsibility.”

We already have plenty of examples showing how consumers are forgotten by regulators with divided mandates. After all, the Federal Reserve was given consumer protection powers in 1994 that is simply never exercised. The Office of Thrift Supervision and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency both have consumer protection responsibilities as well, but neither can credibly claim to have stopped banks from running roughshod over consumers.

“For years, the OCC has had the power and the responsibility to protect both banks and consumers, and it has consistently thrown the consumer under the bus,” said Harvard University Law School professor Elizabeth Warren. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Sheila Bair confirmed yesterday that regulators were hesitant to rein in banks during the boom years, saying “it can be very difficult to take away the punch bowl when people are making money at it now.”

Mike Calhoun, the president of the Center for Responsible Lending, said that “we are skeptical that there is any structure other than a free-standing agency where the consumer regulator is not pressured by the same interests that produced the crisis that we are still trying to get out of.” Indeed, what would give a division housed within a bank regulator the power to overcome the inherent bias that regulators have shown toward banks and whatever practices they employ to make a buck? And if this division is really going to be so powerful that it can overrule the head of the agency in which it is housed, why not just break it out into its own agency?

At the end of the day, abandoning the CFPA may do wonders for expedience and getting some token Republican support for regulatory reform, but that is not worth once again relegating consumers to secondary status behind the financial titans.

Yglesias

Why a Financial Reg “Package”?

This idea of dropping the Consumer Financial Protection Agency in order to build bipartisan support for financial regulation overhaul seems like a bad one for all the reasons you’ve read on other progressive blogs.

But it reminds me to wonder: Why does this all have to be a package? With health care, the basic story is that you can’t do community rating without a mandate, you can’t do a mandate without subsidies, and you can’t do subsidies without pay-fors so right there you have a four-legged health care stool. But if there’s bipartisan support for a resolution process for large financial services firms, then write a bill creating one and let it pass with bipartisan support. If less-progressive members want to block the CFPA then write a CFPA bill, have them block it, and then campaign against them as shills for the banks. Some of the aspects of financial reform are closely connected, but it seems to me that this both can and should be broken down into a few different chunks. But maybe I’m missing something. Does this really need to be an all-or-nothing package?

Yglesias

People Actually Building New Houses

Ten years ago my neighborhood consisted pretty much entirely of vacant lots and parking:

mvtbefore

Nowadays we have a few more buildings, including the large complex I live in, but it’s still mostly vacant lots and parking. But as of, say, 18 months ago there were high hopes and big plans around all those spaces. But for a good while now everything been shut down and nobody’s been actually building anything. Now comes the news that one project is back on track with work being done. Certainly a welcome sign for me, and I’d like to think it’s a sign of economic recovery, but I have my doubts.

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