ThinkProgress Logo

Climate Progress

Are meteorologists climate experts?

Columbia Journalism Review asks “Why don’t TV weathermen believe in climate change?”

Meteorologists are not required to take a course in climate change, this is not part of the NOAA/NWS [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service] certification requirements, so university programs don’t require the course (even if they offer it). So we have been educating generations of meteorologists who know nothing at all about climate change.

Columbia Journalism Review has a fascinating article, “Hot Air:  Why don’t TV weathermen believe in climate change?“  Because people seem to think they should know something about climate, (anti-science) weathermen get undo attention in the (right-wing) media — see “Meteorological Malpractice: Accuweather’s Joe Bastardi pushes the “70s Ice Age Scare” myth again” and “Bastardi: “Global cooling is actually a cause of drought in California”.

moon-hoax.jpgHeck, a former TV weatherman has the most popular anti-science website in the world, WattsUpWithThat.  And of course, Weather Channel Founder John Coleman, a subject of the CJR piece, asserted in 2007 that global warming is “the greatest scam in history,” which puts him in the conspiracy wing of the disinformers with the now discredited Anthony Watts.  [Doesn't everyone know that the greatest scam in history is the whole moon-landing nonsense?]

The answer to the question, “Are meteorologists climate experts?” is “no,” or I should say, “not inherently.”  That’s clear from the CJR story (excerpted below) and from the opening quote of this post, which comes from an interview I did a few years ago with Dr. Judith Curry, Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.  [Yes, that Judith Curry, who wrote "an open letter to graduate students and young scientists in fields related to climate research"].

I originally asked the question in 2007 when Coleman wrote that now-infamous article claiming global warming is “the greatest scam in history,” and explained the source of his conspiracy theory:

Read more

Economy

After Whining About Being ‘Suppressed,’ Chamber Discloses It Spent $123 Million In Lobbying

9341Today’s Supreme Court ruling that opens the floodgates to unprecedented political spending by corporations is another major victory for the corporate lobbying giant — the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

In July, the organization declared its support for Citizens United in an amicus brief arguing that there is “no basis for restricting its core First Amendment right to engage in independent electoral advocacy.” In spite of the fact that the U.S. Chamber has topped lobbying spending year after year, the group had the gall to complain to the Supreme Court that its voice is being “suppressed”:

In particular, the electoral advocacy of the Chamber – a not-for-profit corporation – and of millions of its corporate members has been suppressed. This has occurred even though 96% of Chamber members are businesses with fewer than 100 employees, far from the immense aggregations of wealth hypothesized in Austin. Suppression has been imposed even when candidates have directly attacked business interests and when corporations have unique and valuable insight into the likely consequences of electing or defeating particular candidates. Although this Court has protected the ability of corporations to discuss “issues,” that is no substitute for direct and explicit speech about candidates.

After complaining about its influence being “suppressed,” the Chamber just disclosed that it spent a whopping $123 million to influence federal policy in 2009. Of all the corporations and associations spending money in D.C., the U.S. Chamber tops them all. The Chamber admitted to Roll Call that it was not “suppressed,” but rather, was “active in all of the major debates”:

“It shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone because it was an incredibly active year for the president and the economy,” said Tita Freeman, a chamber spokeswoman. “Hence the chamber was active in all of the major debates that impacted the economy and business community.”

Freeman said the big spike in spending in the fourth quarter was due largely to health care, including issue ads, meetings and letter-writing campaigns.

Aside from health care, the chamber listed a slew of other lobbying issues, including energy and climate change legislation, endangered species regulatory processes, executive compensation and travel promotion.

The Chamber isn’t happy with simply influencing Congress and the administration. It wants more — specifically, the opportunity to purchase its own fleet of friendly lawmakers.

As many federal lawmakers and the Obama administration push for cap-and-trade legislation, health care reform, regulatory reform, and corporate tax reform, the U.S. Chamber stands as the most well-funded opposition to progressive change. The group spent $10-$20 million of insurance-industry-provided cash on fighting reform. After Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts, the Chamber was quick to congratulate itself for running television ads in support of the candidate.

Between Brown’s election victory and the Supreme Court ruling, the most anti-reform corporations in the country are circling their wagons and their wallets around the U.S. Chamber and its fight to increase corporate influence in American politics at the expense of the average American. Today’s Citizens United ruling is a gift by the court’s conservative justices to their efforts.

Update

Mother Jones and Talking Points Memo have more on the Chamber’s victory today.

Yglesias

Endgame

Drop and don’t copy yo, don’t call this a co-opt:

— Online dating profile advice.

Vermin infestation closes RI Avenue Safeway; sadly DCRA doesn’t have jurisdiction over congress.

— Failing to pass health will lead to political disaster.

— Why US politicians are such power hungry sociopaths.

— $200,000 worth of Red Bull stolen from the Navy.

— Yikes.

Recent events making me recall the period circa 10 years ago when my political views were substantially more left-wing. Thus, Rage Against The Machine: “Bulls on Parade”.

Economy

Are House Democrats Thinking Of Extending The Bush Tax Cuts For The Wealthy?

taxcut1.jpgDuring the presidential campaign, a key plank in then-candidate Obama’s platform was cutting taxes for 95 percent of Americans, but allowing the Bush tax cuts for those in the top tax bracket to expire on schedule in 2011. “I would roll back the Bush tax cuts on the wealthiest Americans back to the level they were under Bill Clinton, when I don’t remember rich people feeling oppressed,” Obama said at the time.

Obama reiterated this commitment as President, saying “we need to end the tax breaks for the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans, so that folks like me are paying the same rates that the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans paid when Bill Clinton was President.” And last week, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner swatted away reports that the administration was thinking about reversing course and extending all of the Bush tax cuts. “That’s not something we’ve contemplated,” Geithner said.

When asked if the administration would “go along if Congress took such a step,” Geithner replied, “I don’t think that would be good policy for the country, and I don’t think it’s a necessary thing to do.” Well, it seems like Geithner and the administration need to start convincing House Democrats that extending the cuts isn’t necessary:

– REP. GERRY CONNOLLY (D-VA): I think there is a certain logic to leaving well-enough alone for now, given the fragility of the economic recovery.

– REP. HARRY MITCHELL (D-AZ): Given the unique economic difficulties we face as a nation, this is the wrong time to raise these taxes. We need to retain these tax cuts that encourage investment that stimulates growth and job creation.

In an era when everyone seems to be running around screaming about the deficit, there’s absolutely no reason to extend these cuts, which this year will give millionaires more in tax breaks than 90 percent of Americans will earn in income. The Bush tax cuts have delivered $715 billion to the wealthiest one percent of the country over the last ten years, and extending the cuts would give households in that one percent $60,000 in additional breaks per year, with millionaires receiving a $150,000 annual break. Over ten years, that amounts to another $1.2 trillion in lost revenue.

Now, Mitchell and Connolly are both making the argument that this is about timing, and that raising taxes may choke economic recovery. Leaving aside that we still have another year before Bush’s cuts expire, as Michael Ettlinger pointed out, “while lower taxes during a recession can help the economy rebound, lower taxes for the wealthy are about the worst way to do it”:

Lower taxes for middle- and low-income people is a much better way to help the economy because middle- and low-income families are much more likely to spend their money than the wealthy. And it’s spending that we need to create the demand that will encourage businesses to hire and invest…If we decide we don’t want to raise taxes in a recession we should instead move the tax cuts around a bit. That is, let the tax cuts on those making over $250,000 expire and use the money to give tax cuts to people who could use the help and — more importantly for the economy — are more likely to spend the money they receive.

Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) “dismissed the argument that allowing taxes on investment to rise now would slow the recovery.” “There’s no proof that the Bush tax cuts had anything but a negative effect,” he said.

Yglesias

Foreign Policy and Domestic Paralysis

Fred Kaplan surveys the notion that legislative paralysis in a supermajority rules Senate may turn Barack Obama into a “foreign policy president.” I was talking with a European diplomat earlier today, and while we didn’t specifically discuss this idea, our conversation, which basically just ranged across international issues, made it clear to me that this can’t work.

The crux of the matter is that most of the key items on Obama’s international agenda—from climate change to non-proliferation—require congressional action for anything to happen. Even on the Middle East Peace Process, part of the key to Bibi Netanyahu’s strategy has been his (accurate, in my view) sense that he could win any necessary congressional battle if Obama tried to deploy leverage against him. There are lots of things a president can do in the face of a reluctant congress, but most of them aren’t very progressive. You can start a war. You can undertake covert operations somewhere. You can have the NSA initiate an illegal surveillance program. But you can’t really move toward a co-operative world without the ability to get cooperation from congress.

Politics

Will Brown Give Back The Federal Money That Subsidized Health Reform In Massachusetts?

Senator-elect Scott Brown (R-MA) supports Massachusetts’ 2006 health care reform but opposes the near-identical Senate health care bill. During the campaign, Brown promised to provide the 41st vote for any national reform effort that required states like Massachusetts to finance reform elsewhere:

Thank you for the question, the health care plan is not good for Bay State Health Center here in Springfield, I worked on that health care bill, the problem with it is that we have 98% of our people insured and we have to look at pricing it’s getting out of control – but the Federal plan, taking a half trillion from Medicare, why would we go and subsidize the failure of other states – not only would we be paying for our plan, we’d be paying for everyone else – and look at the back door deals – I think people have lost confidence – and I think that we need to go back – I’d work on it – why do we need a one size fits all government approach we already did it.

Watch it:

But if Brown believes that Americans should not have to finance other states’ reform efforts, he should return the federal dollars that subsidize Massachusetts’ Medicaid expansion. After all, the state’s 2006 health care reform legislation included an expansion of Medicaid for children up to 300% of the federal poverty level and increased enrollment caps on existing Medicaid programs for adults. Massachusetts relied “very heavily on federal Medicaid funds to finance the plan, including $385 million in annual federal Medicaid payments that would have been lost in the absence of a plan to reduce the number of uninsured.”

Massachusetts used federal funds because, like all states, it lacked the economic capacity to invest in something as big as health care reform. Only the federal government can fix the systematic problems plaguing the health care system and improve the system in an equitable manner. Brown’s insistence that states can do reform on their own, is just a back door way for preserving the status quo that denies millions of Americans the kind of reforms that they’re financing in Massachusetts.

Climate Progress

Sen. Jeff Merkley argues against Lisa “Dirty Air” Murkowskis radical attempt to overrule science

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) cosponsors Dirty Air Act

Say No to the Dirty Air Act.

That’s Sen. Lisa “fiddle while Nome burns” Murkowski defending her Dirty Air Amendment.  And yes, I can’t decide what the best nickname for her is.  If you’re known by your accomplishments, then it could be Lisa “top fundraiser from utility industry” Murkowski.

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) has a terrific response on Grist, “An argument against Murkowski’s radical attempt to overrule EPA scientists“:

Read more

Security

President’s New Budget Will Ensure Nukes Reliability

large_budget-obamaThe President’s new budget, due out shortly after the State of the Union address, will likely sweep the knee of one the main conservative arguments against the START treaty and efforts to cut nuclear weapons in general.

One of the central arguments of conservatives opposed to arms control is the bogus notion that the US shouldn’t cut its nuclear forces because the existing nuclear arsenal is “deteriorating” and is increasingly unreliable. In a December letter to the President, all 40 Republican Senators plus Senator Joe Lieberman told the President that they could not support a START treaty unless the reliability of the US nuclear weapons could be assured. These arguments conveniently overlook the recent independent scientific study from the JASON advisory group – this is essentially the gold standard of nuclear studies. The study found that the nuclear arsenal was in fine shape and would continue to be, as long as current modernization programs were adequately funded. JASON essentially killed conservative rationale for a new warhead.

However, the study did point out some areas for improvement in maintaining reliability. An op-ed yesterday by George Schultz, Bill Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn argued similarly that some additional measures should be taken to ensure the continued efficacy of our nuclear labs and nuclear stockpile. Conservatives might have tried to hang their hat on these points – using them as reasons to block arms-reduction efforts like the START treaty. But it appears now that the Administration’s new budget will take dramatic steps to address the concerns of the JASON study and of the four horsemen, thereby assuring the reliability of the US nuclear arsenal and the irrelevance of any new nuclear warhead. In what looked like a certain degree of coordination, Vice President Biden issued a statement following the four horsemen op-ed saying:

These four statesmen have shown us the path to improved security by urging us to do all we can to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and to strengthen the nonproliferation regime, while maintaining a safe, secure and effective nuclear arsenal. Their vision has inspired our efforts and we will continue to be guided by their contributions. As we pursue the vision President Obama laid out in Prague last April, release our new budget in February… people will see the consensus we have sought translated into action.

In other words, the White House heard the recommendations of the four statesmen and is going to follow through on their recommendations. After all the Vice President’s office wouldn’t highlight the op-ed if it was going to ignore its recommendations. Furthermore, the Albuquerque Journal reported this past weekend that:

The Obama administration is preparing to ask Congress for a 10 percent increase in the U.S. nuclear weapons budget, according to an internal memo. The National Nuclear Security Administration’s budget for nuclear weapons research, development, maintenance and manufacturing would rise to 7 billion in 2010, up from $6.38 billion this year, according to a Dec. 22 memo from Energy Secretary Steven Chu to the Office of Management and Budget.

By increasing spending on nuclear maintenance efforts, the President’s budget insures the US nuclear arsenal will remain reliable well into the future. Hence, conservative arguments that we can’t cut nuclear weapons because our arsenal is not reliable just have no basis in reality.

Politics

Las posibilidades de la reforma inmigratoria no han cambiado a pesar de la elección del martes en Massachusetts

Sen-elect Scott Brown (R-MA)Por Andrea Nill

Esta semana, el diario Politico publicó un artículo señalando correctamente que “todo no está perdido” para los Demócratas después de la elección del Republicano de Massachusetts Scott Brown para el Senado. Sin embargo, un tema que Politico sí identificó como “tóxico” es la reforma inmigratoria. De acuerdo a Politico, hay señales de muerte para el tema por el hecho de que el Senador John McCain (R-AZ) “no quiere jugar”, lo que significa que hay “menos Republicanos que cruzaran líneas políticas para votar” a favor de una reforma. Pero el razonamiento de Politico no sólo carece de relación alguna con la elección de Brown, sino que también está basado en un análisis infundado e incorrecto.

Para empezar, las elecciones de anoche no representan un referendo en la agenda legislativa del Presidente Barack Obama, la cual incluye el tema de inmigración. Las encuestas de salida muestran que solo el 38 por ciento de votantes en Massachusetts indicaron que su voto estaba basado en su oposición a las políticas de Obama. De hecho, votantes independientes representaron en gran medida la victoria de Brown. Dichos votantes también apoyan la reforma inmigratoria integral por un amplio margen y votaron por el Senador Edward Kennedy (D-MA)—un ávido defensor de los derechos inmigrantes— de una forma abrumadora año tras año. En todo caso, el triunfo de Scott representa una frustración con la inacción de los partidos políticos. Además, abarca un sentido colectivo de impaciencia con la falta de recuperación económica. La reforma inmigratoria podría tratar con ambos temas.

La reforma inmigratoria y la economía no son mutuamente exclusivas. Asimismo, los prospectos de una reforma inmigratoria siempre han sido ligados a la capacidad de atraer el apoyo bipartidista. McCain “no está en el terreno de juego” porque esta vez la pelota no está en su cancha. Aunque McCain co-patrocino el proyecto fracasado de reforma inmigratoria en el 2006, el Senador Lindsey Graham (R-SC) está tomando las riendas asociándose con el Senador Charles Schumer (D-NY) para crear un proyecto de ley que tendrá que evitar los serios escollos de propuestas que fracasaron en el pasado. En lugar de trazar un linea entre los Republicanos y Demócratas, la reforma inmigratoria señala una oportunidad para que ambos partidos le demuestren a los votantes que pueden trabajar juntos para hacer algo en el Congreso.

En última instancia, está en el interés de McCain y de Brown de apoyar la reforma inmigratoria integral. En el 2009, casi el 30 por ciento de inmigrantes en Arizona (ó 294,541 personas) eran ciudadanos de EEUU naturalizados —lo que significa que son votantes con una conexión cercana a la experiencia de inmigrantes. Entre tanto, la población de Massachusetts nacida en el extranjero representa más del 14 por ciento de la población total del estado y el 17 por ciento de la fuerza laboral. También forman 12.7 por ciento (ó 403,915) de votantes registrados. Ni Martha Coakley ni Brown hicieron campañas entre las comunidades latinas e inmigrantes. Sin embargo, hoy durante una llamada de prensa, la presidenta del Consejo Nacional de La Raza Janet Murguía acotó que ignorar la comunidad Latina y el tema de inmigración puede tener consecuencias devastadoras:

Se han hecho promesas de ambos lados sobre este tema…la inactividad significa que habrá consecuencias. Ciertamente, no sólo para los latinos, pero para votantes indecisos…Las campañas deben captar a la comunidad latina de forma proactiva si quieren su apoyo. Claramente no vimos el alcance (de la campaña de Coakley) a la comunidad Latina que se hubiera esperado para generar el apoyo necesario para hacer una diferencia…

Eliseo Medina, Vicepresidente Ejecutivo de SEIU, señaló además que “perdimos un voto que hará nuestro trabajo más difícil – pero no imposible.” Mientras la viabilidad de reformar las leyes inmigratorias de EEUU no cuenta con el escaño de Brown, Brown puede encontrarse en una posición en la cual necesite la reforma inmigratoria más que la reforma lo necesita a él.

Yglesias

Myths of 1996

I don’t want to object too strenuously to anything Bruce Reed says in this column, but I do think that veterans of the Clinton White House have a tendency to overstate the role of tactical political shifts in their post-1994 success:

Finally, Democrats should remember that a party willing to take voters’ lessons to heart has the chance to build a strong, more enduring bond with the electorate because of it. In 1994, Bill Clinton took the voters’ message as a directive to govern the way he campaigned and be the president he was elected to be, not the president Congress wanted him to be.

The main point I would make about this is just that there wasn’t very much volition involved in Clinton’s rightward turn after the midterms. When the pivot points in congress take a dramatic leap to the right, it’s simply not possible to push aggressive progressive policies. Second, Clinton’s later success is easily explained in terms of the economic expansion:

hibbs6 1

The question you have to ask is whether there’s anything Clinton did post-midterms that was centrist in some way he wasn’t in his first 2 years that significantly contributed to good macroeconomic performance? I think you could plausible argue that both the 1993 budget deal and NAFTA helped spur growth in the 1990s, but those happened before the turn toward triangulation.

By the same token, a lot of the same applies to left-wing critics of Clinton. With Newt Gingrich in the Speaker’s chair what can you do? Given a sharply restricted ability to make big progressive change, managing the country’s domestic and international affairs responsibly while trying to advance small positive change on a bunch of different fronts is the best you can do. And it’s what he did. The alternative is to do what Bush did after 2006 and basically just stop doing anything at all until all of a sudden the world economy is on the brink of collapse.

Older

Switch to Mobile
ThinkProgress Signup Overlay Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress

Sign Up