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Yglesias

QDR on China

The QDR seems to not have a great deal to say about China. This the most extended discussion that I can seem to find, on page 60:

China’s growing presence and influence in regional and global economic and security affairs is one of the most consequential aspects of the evolving strategic landscape in the Asia-Pacific region and globally. In particular, China’s military has begin to develop new roles, missions, and capabilities in support of its growing regional and global interests, which could enable it to play a more substantial and constructive role in international affairs. The United States welcomes a strong, prosperous, and successful China that plays a greater global role. The United States welcomes the positive benefits that can accrue from greater cooperation. However, lack of transparency and the nature of China’s military development and decision-making process raise legitimate questions about its future conduct and intentions within Asia and beyond. Our relationship with China must therefore be multidimensional and undergirded by a process of enhancing confidence and reducing mistrust in a manner that reinforces mutual interest. The United States and China should sustain open channels of communication to discuss disagreements in ordert o manage and ultimately reduce the risks of conflict that are inherent in any relationshop as broad and complex as that shared by these two nations.

I think that’s all easy enough to accept as far as it goes. But I think it also illustrates that for all the vastness of its budget, the Department of Defense has a limited relevance to the international relationships that really matter. When you think about the impact of China on the lives of Americans, the complicated interplay between trade flows, budget deficits, and currency value is far, far, far more significant than this business about how China’s defense budget isn’t fully transparent. But that’s all the Treasury Department’s problem.

This in turn highlights the fact that it seems pointless to try to draw a budgetary distinction between “security” and “non-security” agencies. Our interests around the world are inherently connected to the impact of the world on events inside our borders.

Politics

Deficit Peacock Evan Bayh Hits ‘Far Left-Wing Blogs’ For Criticizing Obama’s Spending Freeze As Too ‘Austere’

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), appearing on Fox News Sunday, attacked “far left-wing blogs” for criticizing President Obama’s proposed non-security discretionary spending freeze. Bayh burnished his anti-spending credentials by noting his opposition to recent omnibus spending bills, although he supported the much larger American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, and has repeatedly promoted the federal spending for creating thousands of jobs in his state. Speaking to Fox’s Chris Wallace, Bayh sided with Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), the ranking Republican on the House Budget Committee, and an advocate of draconian spending cuts during the recession:

If you look, I suspect Paul does not, but if you look at the far left-wing blogs and that kind of thing they’re severely criticizing the president for being too fiscally austere. My own take on this, Paul is right. Domestic discretionary spending increased last year. I voted against the omnibus, I voted against the “minibus” and that’s last year. the question is where do we go now? The freeze is important. He identified $20 billion if you aggregate over the next ten years is $250 billion less spending. Does it solve all our problems? No. But it’s a step in the right direction.

Watch it:

Bayh is a “deficit peacock” — someone who likes to harp on deficits, while at the same time voting for budget-busting expenditures like a $250 billion tax cut for the heirs of wealthy families. Despite Bayh’s preening, “far left-wing” blogs haven’t been the only critics of Obama’s freeze. Additionally, part of why progressives are criticizing Obama about is not that the spending freeze is too “austere,” but that it doesn’t go after defense spending. As Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Lawrence Korb has argued, “If President Obama is serious about controlling spending, he can’t exempt the Pentagon.” And House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) concurs, telling reporters that the entire defense budget “should not be exempted” from the freeze.

Yglesias

Boehner Rejects Bipartisanship

225px-John_Boehner_official_portrait

I think John Boehner has a reasonable take on the question of bipartisanship:

Despite White House overtures for congressional Republicans to work with Democrats, the top GOP official in the House said Sunday that such opportunities are limited.

“There aren’t that many places where we can come together,” House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio said on the NBC program “Meet the Press.”

Republicans were elected to stand by their principles, and those principles are different than the “leftist proposals” offered by President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats, Boehner said.

I think that’s right, and it’s reflected in the fact that the US House of Representative is a fairly well-functioning legislative body. It’s a body organized around two major political parties that outline competing, somewhat coherent agendas that command large-scale support from their own members and little support from the opposition. Some issues scramble the coalitions and leave the door open to large-scale bipartisanship, but the bulk of the legislative terrain consists of systematic disagreement on important issues. There are biannual elections at which the American people put either one party or the other in charge, and having won an election the winning party attempts to govern in a way that maintains the confidence of the voters.

It’s a perfectly good system. Sometimes a majority sees its margins trimmed (1996, 1998, 2000) other times it sees its margin enhanced (2002, 2008) and sometimes a majority is replaced by a rival majority (1994, 2006) and the House’s policy agenda changes accordingly. Boehner’s ideas are different from Nancy Pelosi’s ideas, and if he wants his ideas to prevail he needs to assemble a majority prepared to support him. That’s his responsibility as an opposition leader, whereas Pelosi’s responsibility is to frame a successful governing agenda that maintain’s the public’s faith in her co-partisans. It’s a system where power aligns with responsibility, and where those with power are held accountable for their use of it.

The Senate, by contrast, is a mess.

Politics

Will Scott Brown support repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell?

During the Senate special election in Massachusetts, Republican Scott Brown was criticized for his lack of support for LGBT rights. The Massachusetts Family Institute put out a report card showing that he supports the ban on gay men and women serving openly in the military, a position also noted by MassEquality, a leading state gay political group. However, in an interview with ABC News that aired today, Brown said he still hadn’t taken a position on repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell:

WALTERS: You’re a Lieutenant-Colonel. On Wednesday the President announced that he wants to work with Congress to repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. What’s your view?

BROWN: I think it’s important, because as you know we’re fighting two wars right now. And the most — the first priority is to — is to — is to finish the job, and win those wars. I’d like to hear from the generals in the field — in the field — the people that actually work with these soldiers to make sure that, you know, the social change is not going to disrupt our ability to finish the job and complete the wars.

WALTERS: But Senator, your own view.

BROWN: That’s my view.

WALTERS: So you can’t say whether you’re for or against it?

BROWN: No. I’m going to wait to speak to the generals on the ground.

Watch it:

Climate Progress

Lindsey Graham: “Every day that we delay trying to find a price for carbon is a day that China uses to dominate the green economy.

With 20 million jobs at stake globally, China poured $440 billion into clean energy last year. Our only hope to match them is the bipartisan climate and clean energy jobs bill

It is shaping up to be the Great Game of the 21st century.  To top officials and business executives here at the World Economic Forum, Topic A this year was the race to develop greener, cleaner technology….  it is a battle for potentially millions of jobs and trillions of dollars in export revenues.

“Six months ago my biggest worry was that an emissions deal would make American business less competitive compared to China,” said Senator Lindsay Graham, a Republican from South Carolina who has been deeply involved in climate change issues in Congress. “Now my concern is that every day that we delay trying to find a price for carbon is a day that China uses to dominate the green economy.”

He added: “China has made a long-term strategic decision and they are going gang-busters.”

Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister, agreed. “It’s a race and whoever wins that race will dominate economic development,” she said….

In the energy sector alone, the deployment of new technologies, like wind and solar power, has the potential to support 20 million jobs by 2030 and trillions of dollars in revenue, analysts estimate.

That’s the NY Times reporting Saturday from Davos, “Race Is on to Develop Green, Clean Technology.”  And they have another terrific piece today on the front page from Tianjin, “China Leading Global Race to Make Clean Energy.”

Politics aside, what is most amazing about the emergence of the conservative senator from South Carolina as a leader on climate and clean energy is that he is clearly better at messaging on this than most progressives, possibly even including the president.  Why?

Graham understands the core issues and is not afraid to be blunt about them — see Lindsey Graham: “The idea of not pricing carbon, in my view, means you’re not serious about energy independence. The odd thing is you’ll never have energy independence until you clean up the air, and you’ll never clean up the air until you price carbon.”

Some 20 million jobs — and trillions in wealth — by 2030 are at stake, and America may give up without much of a fight.  We only have one hope of matching China, as I (and others) have said again and again (see “The only way to win the clean energy race is to pass the clean energy bill“).

Read more

Yglesias

Your 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review

The final version of the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review is now out and about on the Internet for your reading pleasure. The idea of the QDR is that it both serves as a statement of intent, indicating what high-level DOD policymakers tend to pursue in terms of budget objectives and resource-allocation, and also that it functions as high-level guidance for career personnel as to what their bosses want everyone to do.

Robert Farley makes the case for why these debates are worth delving into. I’m with Farley that the primary change in overall strategy seems to be that they’ve dropped the totalizing conceit of a “Long War” and not really replaced it with anything. I think that’s the right call. It’s good to have a unifying strategic theme, but it’s not at all good to be so devoted to coming up with one that you embrace an idea that doesn’t make sense. The fact of the matter is that the US Department of Defense is routinely asked to engage in a rather miscellaneous set of undertakings. My preference would be to pare back this set of undertakings to something more modest and coherent, but insofar as that’s not on the table at the moment it’s better to try to be clear-sighted rather than delusional.

In brass-tacks terms, this all seems to be very good news for people who make helicopters.

Media

Ailes Defends Beck’s Incendiary Rhetoric: ‘He’s Talking About Hitler And Stalin’ Killing People, So It’s ‘Accurate’

Shortly after President Obama’s inauguration, Fox News anchors and media personalities began attacking his administration and its policies. The White House fired back, calling Fox the “communications arm of the Republican Party.” Today on ABC’s This Week, host Barbera Walters asked Fox News CEO Roger Ailes if the White House and his network have “kissed and made up.” “We’re fine,” he said but added one caveat. “Well I’ll pick a fight if you want. I’d be happy to get into one.”

Arianna Huffington then called out Ailes, particularly because of Fox News host Glenn Beck’s radical rhetoric, talking about people “being slaughtered.” But Ailes dismissed the criticism, saying Beck was “probably accurate”:

HUFFINGTON: But Roger it’s not a question of picking a fight and aren’t you concerned about the language that Glenn Beck is using which is after all, inciting the American people. Three’s a lot of suffering out there as you know and when he talks about people being slaughtered, about who is going to be on the next killing spree.

AILES: He’s talking about Hitler and Stalin slaughtering people so I think he was probably accurate.

HUFFINGTON: No he was talking about this administration.

Watch it:

For months, Beck has been linking progressivism to both communism and fascism. But more than just highlighting the atrocities committed by Hitler and Stalin, Beck has directly linked them to the progressive movement. “Progressives want you dead,” Beck said just this month. Beck once said that progressive “vampires” have the “taste of blood” and are going to “start getting more and more violent.”

Beck also recently aired a “documentary” on “the atrocities of Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara — ‘the true unseen history of Marxism, progressivism and communism’ as Beck described it.” It turns out the film wasn’t all that “accurate,” as Ailes claimed. History professors called it a “complete lie” and that Beck “lives in a complete alternative universe.”

Indeed, Beck also once likened himself to “Israeli Nazi hunters,” saying that “to the day I die, I am going to be a progressive hunter.”

Yglesias

Obama’s Spending Priorities

More details are emerging:

The budget for the 2011 fiscal year, which begins in October, will identify the winners and losers behind Mr. Obama’s proposal for a three-year freeze of a portion of the budget. Many programs at the National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation and the Energy Department are in line for increases, along with the Census Bureau.

Among the losers would be some public works projects of the Army Corps of Engineers, two historic preservation programs and NASA’s mission to return to the Moon, which would be ended as the administration seeks to reorient the space program to use private companies for launchings. Mr. Obama is recycling some proposals from last year, including one to end redundant payments for land restoration at abandoned coal mines; Western lawmakers blocked it in 2009. Mr. Obama will propose a total of $20 billion in such savings for the coming fiscal year.

Based on what we’ve heard so far, Obama’s sense of priorities within the budget appears sensible to me. The OMB team seems to be doing a good job of identifying which programs are worth spending money on and which have lower value. But this raises the question of how the specifics will relate to the overall freeze. If it turns out that “western lawmakers” once again block cuts in “reduntant payments for land restoration at abandoned coal mines” is the White House going to pare back its planned increases in NIH programs? That, it seems to me, would be very bad policy. The case for an overall freeze is weak in macroeconomic terms. Cutting bad programs is fine, but given the current economic situation funding good ones is more important.

Security

Krauthammer On Abdulmutallab: ‘The Guy Is Nigerian,’ So You ‘Have To Assume’ He Wasn’t ‘Acting Alone’

Today’s Fox News Sunday panel looked at Attorney General Eric Holder’s decision to hold terrorist trials in federal courts rather than military commissions. The discussion quickly shifted to Holder himself, and whether he should be fired. NPR’s Juan Williams argued that Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol and Washington Post columnist Charles Krauthammer were lobbing “unjustified” attacks on Holder since the Bush administration repeatedly tried terrorists in civilian courts.

Krauthammer then cited the case of the failed Christmas Day bombing by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, saying that the Obama administration should have assumed that he “has people who are working with him” because he’s Nigerian:

KRAUTHAMMER: You arrest a guy who’s got a bomb in his underpants. You know, it’s likely he didn’t do it at home in his kitchen. … The guy is Nigerian. You’ve got to assume — you have to assume that he has people who are working with him.

WILLIAMS: Because he’s a Nigerian?

KRAUTHAMMER: Why do you assume otherwise? It makes no sense at all. You capture a terrorist and in almost all of our plots there are groups of terrorists. [...]

WILLIAMS: We have made such progress in terms of breaking down al Qaeda and getting them in terms of the structure to malfunction that there are now more lone wolves now and it’s tougher to capture and know the extent of knowledge they have at any one moment. There was no evidence, on the face of it on that day, had come from an al Qaeda training camp.

When Williams asked whether Holder should be held “accountable for all intelligence failures, including intelligence failures by the British and everybody else who didn’t understand what Abdulmutallab was up to,” Kristol smirked and shrugged his shoulders. Watch it:

On Jan. 5, President Obama admitted that there were “human and systemic failures that almost cost nearly 300 lives” on Christmas Day. He added that it “was not a failure to collect intelligence; it was a failure to integrate and understand the intelligence that we already had.” Unlike what Kristol was trying to argue, it was not solely the fault of “incompetence” by Holder.

Transcript: Read more

Yglesias

Why Choose?

File-L.N.Tolstoy_Prokudin-Gorsky

From an interesting NYT piece on JD Salinger:

Depending on one’s point of view, he was either a crackpot or the American Tolstoy, who had turned silence itself into his most eloquent work of art.

Tolstoy was a great novelist, but wasn’t he also a crackpot?

Update

The more I think about this, the less I like it. Tolstoy was something of a crackpot. He was also one of the greatest artists of all time. The idea that if Salinger we don’t regard Salinger as a crackpot we should regard him as the equivalent to Tolstoy seems doubly ridiculous.

I note that on twitter someone was mounting the case that Dostoevsky is better than Tolstoy. These debates will, of course, go on and on. What I would say is that Dostoevsky’s peak moments are more magnificent but that there’s also more weak material in there. Dostoevsky famously wrote under sharp debt-related financial pressure and thus the material is sometimes of uneven quality (consider the quality gap between the first third of The Idiot and the last third) whereas with Tolstoy it’s all good.

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