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“Independent” critique of Hockey Stick revealed as fatally flawed right-wing anti-science set up

mann1.jpg

No one can possibly undo all of the damage to climate science and individual scientists done by the diarrhea of disinformation spewing out of the anti-science crowd.   In large part that’s because of the reckless laziness of many in the status quo media, such as CBS, who prefer easy sensationalism to thoughtful journalism.

Few scientists have been more victimized than Michael Mann, Director of Pennsylvania State University’s Earth System Science Center.  Than again, few scientists have been more vindicated than Michael Mann (see “Penn State inquiry finds no evidence for allegations against Michael Mann” and below).

That’s why I feel compelled to keep doing my small part in helping to set the record straight as often as possible — and to publicize the tremendous work of others doing the same, such as the blogger Deep Climate, who has uncovered previously unknown details of just how some of the most fraudulent charges against Mann and the Hockey Stick graph were trumped up by the anti-science crowd in the first place.

Remember the question scientists are trying to answer:  Is the planet now as hot (or hotter) than it has been in a millenium?  Try two millennia (see this 2008 PNAS study, which is the source of the figure above, and this “seminal” 2009 Science study).

In the interests of not spending my time rewriting the terrific work done by others, let me urge you all to read Deep Climate, while I excerpt a very good summary by DeSmogBlog:

Read more

Yglesias

No One Expects The Spanish Inquisition

Waterboarding2 1

To recap a bit of history, back in the early days of the Bush administration a man named Donald Rumsfeld—deemed one of the worst secretaries of defense in American history by John McCain—was running the Pentagon. He had a guy working for him named Marc Thiessen as a speechwriter. This was all when George W Bush was president, one of the worst in history. In addition to Bush, Rumsfeld, and Thiessen there were other dimwitted and immoral people in charge of running the government. One thing that dimwitted and immoral people do when under pressure is decide that lashing out with a kind of dimwitted and immoral violence is going to help them. Consequently, they got the dimwitted and immoral idea that they ought to torture people with techniques they got out of techniques the US government has developed to train soldiers in torture-resistance.

This was a bad idea, so they were warned that it was a bad idea. Instructor Joseph Witsch told a Pentagon working group on interrogations “The physical and psychological pressures we apply in training violate national and international laws … I hope someone is explaining this to all these folks asking for our techniques and methodology!” They established a Behavioral Science Consultation Team at Gitmo that was told “Bottom line: the likelihood that the use of physical pressures will increase the delivery of accurate information from a detainee is very low.”

But Marc Thiessen and his friends aren’t very smart and they are very immoral. They love inflicting violence. So they went ahead and tortured. One technique they used, waterboarding, bears a great deal of similarity to the so-called “tormenta de toca” from the Spanish Inquisition. Since the Spanish Inquisition is famous for its cruelty, sometimes critics of the kind of dimwitted cruelty beloved by Marc Thiessen and his pals point out the similarity. But Thiessen doesn’t like this comparison so earlier today he called me out for making it, observing:

Apparently, Yglesias has not bothered to read Courting Disaster. If he had, he would know better than to make this ridiculous argument. Even a basic review of the facts makes clear Yglesias is completely uninformed.

Courting Disaster is Thiessen’s book, and if he wants me to read it he’ll have to force water down my throat to induce the sensation of drowning. But having summed that up, we come to Thiessen’s big point. It turns out that during the Spanish inquisition, in addition to the basic “water cure” elements beloved by Thiessen they also used “Sharp cords, called cordeles, which cut into the flesh, attached the arms and legs to the side of the trestle and others, known as garrotes, from sticks thrust in them and twisted around like a tourniquet till the cords cut more or less deeply into the flesh, were twined around the upper and lower arms, the thighs and the calves.” So you see, it’s totally different—when Thiessen and friends were running the show, they did tie people down to boards (like in the Spanish Inquisition!) and they did pour water on them (like in the Spanish Inquisition!) but in the Spanish version they used the cords to cause additional painful torture whereas in the more refined Bush/Rumsfeld/Thiessen era the water torture itself was deemed sufficient!

And that, my friends, is the advance of civilization over time.

I suppose the natural question to ask, though, is why these kind of comparisons to the Spanish Inquisition and the Khmer Rouge and the Korean War-era People’s Liberal Army seem to bother torture advocates so much. The basic point made by torture advocates (when they’re not quibbling about whether or not you should call techniques poached from a torture resistance manual “torture”) is that the problem with liberals is that we’re not sufficiently willing to engage in brutal treatment of prisoners in order to compel their cooperation. But do you know who really didn’t shy away from brutal treatment of prisoners? The Spanish Inquisition! The Khmer Rouge! These are people who knew how to get the job done and it strikes me as deeply hypocritical of torture fans to turn around and get all squeamish and liberal when they hear that the inquisitors added a garrote or two into the torturing fun. The core element of the water torture is the same, even though different iterations of it are conducted in somewhat different ways—that’s the point of the Inquisition comparison.

I’m the kind of weak-kneed liberal who thinks that the government of a free people neither must nor should seek security through torture, so I’ll concede that I’m not nearly as well-versed in the precise ins-and-outs of different ways of torturing as a sicko like Thiessen is. But what’s the point. If torture in the name of a good cause is as awesome as Thiessen says it is, then why is it such a point of pride to try to maintain that what he advocates isn’t quite as brutal as what was done in the Inquisition? Could it be that somewhere lurking beneath the defensiveness, the partisanship, the blinkered worldview, and the immorality is a little nub of a conscience?

Health

Boehner And Cantor Ask Obama To Abandon The ‘Legal’ And ‘Ethical’ Reconciliation Process

BoehnerAndCantorHouse Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and Republican Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) have written a letter to President Obama asking him to abandon the current health care reform bills and eliminate “the possibility of reconciliation” before convening his February 25th health summit:

If the starting point for this meeting is the job-killing bills the American people have already soundly rejected, Republicans would rightly be reluctant to participate. Assuming the President is sincere about moving forward in a bipartisan way, does that mean he has taken off the table the idea of relying solely on Democratic votes and jamming through health care reform by way of reconciliation?

Given the GOP’s reluctance to negotiate on health care reform and the Democrats’ repeated overtures at bipartisanship, Obama shouldn’t abandon a legislative tactic that subjects legislation to a simple majority vote. After all, reconciliation was designed to help bring spending and revenues in line with the fiscal policy and lower the deficit — which health reform would undoubtedly accomplish.

The GOP has repeatedly used the reconciliation process to enact its agenda. In 2001 and 2003, Republicans broke with tradition and used the reconciliation to “enact a large tax cut that greatly increased federal deficits and debt.” During the 1990s, Republicans pushed through key provisions of their signature legislative agenda, the Contract with America, using budget reconciliation.

As rising GOP star Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) pointed out in April, Democrats have the “right” to pass health care reform through the reconciliation process. “It is their right. It is what they can do,” Ryan admitted. In June, former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) said of the reconciliation process, “But it’s legal, it’s ethical, you can do it. And it has been suggested and accepted by the administration, pretty directly that if it came down to it, they’re going to drive this thing through a fifty-vote door. ”

Update

Robert Gibbs has responded to the GOP letter. Without directly addressing their concerns, Gibbs reiterated the President’s commitment to health care reform:

He’s open to including any good ideas that stand up to objective scrutiny. What he will not do, however, is walk away from reform and the millions of American families and small business counting on it.

Health

Republicans Reflexively Dismiss Health Summit As ‘A Hollow PR Blitz’

Rep. Tom Price (R-GA)

Rep. Tom Price (R-GA)

Rep. Tom Price’s (R-GA) reaction to President Obama’s February 25th health care summit pretty much sums up the Republican response: accuse the Democrats and the President of not reaching out, while they’re reaching out.

In other words, break the Olive Branch in half and pretend that the term compromise — which, the Merriam-Webster dictionary defines as “settlement of differences by arbitration or by consent reached by mutual concessions — really requires Democrats to abandon their plans and accept the Republican proposals.

From Price’s priceless statement:

It seems the only play the President knows how to run is a hollow PR blitz. Republicans welcome honest discussion, but this event reeks of political gamesmanship. Throughout this debate, Republicans have been stiff-armed from participating, our plans ignored, and our ideas blatantly misrepresented. It’s quite telling that only now, once the President’s plan is considered to be on political life support, does the White House seek input from Republicans.

The fact that the President has indicated he is still completely wedded to a government takeover of health care demonstrates that despite the rhetoric, he just hasn’t gotten the message from the American people. Americans have no interest in handing personal medical decisions to the government and are sick of Washington’s unchecked growth and power.

The only constructive discussions will start with a blank sheet of paper. The American people have soundly rejected the President’s big-government approach to health care, and tinkering at the margins of it will not bring about bipartisan consensus. Enacting positive health care reform still remains possible, but it will require the President to accept that his plan is a non-starter with the American people.

The truth is, Republicans are lucky to receive any hearing at all. After all, Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) attempted to reach a bipartisan health care bill for months, only to produce produce a fairly watered down proposal that every Republican — with the exception of Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) — abandoned. As Baucus remarked some months later, “we worked very hard to get a bipartisan bill. That side of the aisle started working with us but gradually they began to bleed politically,” Baucus said. They realized “that they would do a better chance in the 2010 elections by just not working with us, but just attack attack attack attack attack and try to score political points to defeat any honest effort to get health care reform.”

This is a take-two for bipartisanship and it’s up to the Republicans to meet the Democrats half way. They can either turn the event into “a hollow PR blitz” that “reeks of political gamesmanship” or abandon all of the government-takeover nonsense and figure out how to make reform work. The summit will be what Republicans make of it.

Politics

Bolton: Either Iran Gets Nukes Or ‘Israel Or Somebody Else Uses Military Force To Stop It’

Last week, Iran’s President Mahmoud Amadinejad said Tehran would have “no problem” agreeing on a deal to send its enriched uranium abroad for further enrichment. But today, Iran told the IAEA that it would back out of the deal and begin enriching its uranium stockpile in Iran.

On Fox News today, John Bolton declared that “Iran simply has no intention of being talked out of its nuclear weapons program” and that “very severe sanctions” will not work. Later, when host Gregg Jarrett asked if military action is “the only answer,” Bolton agreed:

JARRETT: Is military force probably in the end the only answer?

BOLTON: There are two outcomes, one is Iran getting its nuclear weapons, the other is Israel or somebody uses military force to stop it. That’s where we are.

Watch it:

Bolton has been calling for military strikes on Iran to eliminate its nuclear program for sometime, despite claiming that he “always said, that the use of force against Iran’s nuclear program is deeply unattractive.” Last year, he said that “targeted force” is the “only option.”

But Bolton conveniently never discusses the sobering consequences of military action on Iran. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said war with Iran would be “disastrous” and “the last thing we need.” “There is no military option that does anything more than buy time,” Gates said last year. Retired Gen. Anthony Zinni answered war hawks like Bolton calling for military action against Iran:

After you’ve dropped those bombs on those hardened facilities, what happens next? … [E]ventually, if you follow this all the way down, eventually I’m putting boots on the ground somewhere. And like I tell my friends, if you like Iraq and Afghanistan, you’ll love Iran.

A top defense official said an attack probably would “incentivize the Iranians to go all the way to weaponize” their nuclear material and have “a number of destabilizing” consequences for the region. Bolton actually thinks attacking Iran “would lead to greater stability in the region” but that if anything goes wrong, a simple “campaign of public diplomacy” will sort everything out.

Justice

Rep. Susan Davis Supports ‘Limited Moratorium’ On Third-Party Discharges

Rep. Susan Davis (D-CA), the chairwoman of the House Subcommittee on Military Personnel, has said that Congress should institute a moratorium on third-party Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell (DADT) discharges until Congress formally repeals the policy. Davis estimated that outings by a third party make up for 30-40 percent of all DADT discharges and said she hoped to attach the moratorium to the upcoming defense authorization bill. “That would be the really first act of Congress to just put a hold on any discharges,” she said during a radio interview on KPBS San Diego public radio:

I think what’s being suggested here is a kind of limited moratorium. I don’t know whether the language that comes forward would be a total moratorium. I suspect that it might be easier to get this limited moratorium through with more support.

Listen:

During the Davis’ interview, Abe Shragge, professor of history, war and American society at UCSD, compared conservative arguments against repealing DADT to the case put forward by proponents of racial segregation of the military.

“That same argument was offered in the late 1940s, before President Truman integrated the services racially, that this would affect recruitment, it would reflect badly on the readiness of the service. That well qualified people who’d be very uncomfortable if forced to serve with or next to or in close proximity to African Americans would simply have to leave. That didn’t’ happen then. And I would not expect it to happen in any great numbers now.”

Last week, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) also suggested that Congress would pass a moratorium and on Saturday Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) promised to add an amend to the budget that would deny “funding to the military for the costs of pursuing inquiries, dismissal proceedings and other procedures associated with enforcing” DADT.

Yglesias

Stepping on the Monetary Gas Pedal

We had Brad DeLong and Stephen Cohen in the office on Friday to talk about their excellent new book, The End of Influence. I missed the first half of the event since I was on a radio show, so I’m glad we have the video:

This part of our official CAP writeup hits on the part of their argument that has the most short-term relevance, though it’s not really at the core of what the book is about:

DeLong suggested that the Obama administration can begin to fix this dilemma by appointing “competent economists” to the Federal Reserve Board to reduce and eliminate global imbalances that trap the United States and China in financial terror.

“Ninety-eight percent of economists think a weaker dollar will help the economy,” but it is a difficult sentiment to express without being seen as treasonous, Cohen explained. The value of the dollar must drop in order for us to save more. Our goods will become cheaper, we will export more, and bring down the trade deficit.

And, yes, Europe should be “printing money” too. Somehow the “central bank independence is good because it will stop monetary authorities from sparking inflation to create short-term election-timed reductions in unemployment” principled seems to have morphed into the principle that the idea of central bank independence is that monetary authorities should act with callous disregard for the human consequences of their policies. It’s nuts.

Alyssa

Personal Jesus

I don’t know a huge amount about gospel, but Kelefa Sanneh’s New Yorker profile of gospel singer Tonéx is well worth buying last week’s issue of the magazine to read (and you’ll have to, since only an abstract is available online).  For those not in the know, as I wasn’t, Tonéx was a major new voice in gospel, someone who managed to push the form closer to pop and hip-hop, before he finally decided to acknowledge that he’s sexually attracted to men, and that he doesn’t feel like that’s something that needed to be fixed.  That revelation, and the gospel community’s reaction to it, has exposed a central contradiction of the form: gospel has historically relied on gay men to be some of its greatest innovators, but it doesn’t tolerate their open presence.  Sanneh’s piece is a fantastic look at the impact of social change on an artistic form.  As he writes:

It’s clear that the old arrangement can’t last forever.  Gospel music has offered generations of same-gender-loving singers a place to call home, in exchange for their obedience, or their silence.  This tricky and somethings hard bargain shaped the genre, guiding its transfigured love songs, its expressions of praise and sorrow, its twinning of the orthodox and the outrageous.  And there’s no telling what gospel will sound like when that tacit arrangement no longer holds.

Read it, and then check out some of Tonéx’s music.  ”Personal Jesus” is a pretty great place to start:

 

Politics

Cantor Opens The Door To GOP Rejecting Obama’s Bipartisan Health Care Meeting

In an interview with CBS News’ Katie Couric that aired before the Super Bowl yesterday, President Obama announced “that he would convene a half-day bipartisan health care session at the White House to be televised live this month.” “I want to come back and have a large meeting, Republicans and Democrats, to go through systematically all the best ideas that are out there and move it forward,” said Obama.

The top Republicans in both the House and Senate responded by saying that while they “look forward” to the discussion and”appreciate the opportunity to share ideas with the President,” they believe that the “best way to start on real, bipartisan reform would be to scrap” the health care reform bills that have passed both the House and Senate. The office of another GOP leader, House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA), suggested that Republicans would not attend the White House meeting unless the Democrats abandoned their proposals:

After going it alone on health care reform for nearly a year, President Obama has decided he wants to bring Republicans into the conversation. Here’s the problem: unless the President and Speaker Pelosi are willing to scrap their government take over and hit the reset button, there’s not much to talk about.

Republicans believe the status quo is unacceptable, but so is any health reform package that spends money we don’t have or raises taxes on small businesses and working families in a recession. To that point, House Republicans have offered the only plan, that will lower health care costs, which is what the President said was the goal at the start of this debate.

The Plum Line’s Greg Sargent writes that Cantor is essentially saying “that the only way Dems can win bipartisan cooperation is to fully embrace the GOP health care plan and nothing more.” Cantor’s stubborn refusal to discuss health care openly with Obama appears to have support in the conservative base. Michelle Malkin wrote today that “Republicans should feel zero obligation to participate in yet another White House health care dog-and-pony show: Just say no.” On Fox News, conservative consultant Andrea Tantaros — who works for a PR firm that represents health care clients — declared that “the only way Republicans should meet with” Obama is if he “is committed to starting over, scrapping that stinker of a bill.” Watch it:

The White House does not intend to start over at the meeting. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius told the Huffington Post’s Sam Stein today that while Obama is willing to “add various elements” to health care legislation suggested by Republican lawmakers, he is “absolutely not” hitting the reset button on the legislative process.

The Wonk Room’s Igor Volsky notes that “at the end of the day, it will be up to the Republicans to meet the Democrats half way” and “if they still insist on starting over, they’re effectively taking themselves out of the process and giving the reins to the Democrats.” After crowing about the need for more transparency in health care negotiations, will Republicans follow through on Cantor’s threat to boycott public, televised discussions with the president that could result in more Republican ideas being incorporated into reform?

Update

Rush Limbaugh also argued for rejecting the meeting today, telling his audience that “this is no time for bipartisanship.”


Update

,In a letter sent to White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel today, Cantor and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) wrote that “If the starting point for this meeting” is the bills that passed the House and Senate, “Republicans would rightly be reluctant to participate.”

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