ThinkProgress Logo

Climate Progress

Thad Allen: ‘It’s Logical To Assume’ The Oil Will Hit The Beaches

Thad Allen
USCG Cmdr. Adm. Thad Allen

The new commander of the BP-Halliburton oil disaster response believes significant amounts of oil will soon be hitting the fragile beaches and wetlands of the Gulf Coast. Admiral Thad Allen, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, was named today the “national incident commander” for the oilpocalypse unfolding from the explosion of BP’s Deepwater Horizon exploratory rig on April 20. His appointment follows Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano’s declaration that the disaster is a “spill of national significance,” as the oil slick from the underwater gusher tripled in size in one day. Changing wind direction has meant, fortunately, that only the leading edges of the slick have reached the farthest reaches of Louisiana’s Mississippi Delta. In a press briefing this afternoon, Allen explained that the future location of the slick is “dependent on the weather,” but that the sheer volume of oil means that “it’s logical to assume” the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida will be hit:

There’s enough oil out there it’s logical to assume it will impact the shoreline. The question is when and where.

Allen said that the underwater sea of oil will keep growing until BP is able to cap it, a process that “could go for 45 to 90 days.” If oil continues to flow at current rates for that length of time, that would add up to about 90 million gallons of oil, on the scale of the largest oil spills in history. The winds are expected to shift, directing the spill towards the Mississippi and Alabama coasts over the next 72 to 96 hours. The extended network of floating booms being deployed and dispersants sprayed from C-130s will only mitigate, not stop, the oil’s impact.

Allen led a “2002 planning exercise in New Orleans for an oil spill in the Gulf Coast,” and is applying lessons learned from that exercise today. In 2005, Allen rose to public prominence when the hapless FEMA director Michael Brown asked him to take over the Hurricane Katrina response, a week after the global-warming-fueled storm had made landfall, killed thousands, and left hundreds of thousands of people homeless. It’s a good sign that Allen is being called in this time when this new fossil-industry disaster is just hitting our shores.

Politics

Cuccinelli channels John Ashcroft, censors Roman goddess’ clothing on the Virginia seal.

The “Great Seal” of the Commonwealth of Virginia depicts the Roman goddess Virtus standing over the defeated Tyranny and has been in use since 1776. Virtus is holding a spear and a sheathed sword, and the garb she is wearing exposes her left breast. (An earlier rendition of the seal traced back to Thomas Jefferson shows the goddess wearing even less clothing.) However, far-right Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) is now tinkering with the historic seal:

The seal depicts the Roman goddess Virtus, or virtue, wearing a blue tunic draped over one shoulder, her left breast exposed. But on the new lapel pins Cuccinelli recently handed out to his staff, Virtus’ bosom is covered by an armored breastplate.

When the new design came up at a staff meeting, workers in attendance said Cuccinelli joked that it converts a risqué image into a PG one.

The joke might be on him, said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “When you ask to be ridiculed, it usually happens. And it will happen here, nationally,” he said. “This is classical art, for goodness’ sake.”

Cuccinelli’s spokesman said that the pins were paid for by funds from the attorney general’s political action committee. In 2002, Bush attorney general John Ashcroft became the subject of national ridicule when he “spent $8,000 on blue drapes” to cover two nude statues at the Justice Department. An unscientific poll on the website of the Virginian-Pilot finds that 96 percent of the more than 4,000 people who have taken the survey think Cuccinelli’s decision was a “bad idea.”

Yglesias

Cocktail Party Watch

I don't actually drink cocktails, just had bourbon on the rocks.

When I was reading Ashley Parker’s very amusing piece on the Obama administration’s younger staffers the thought that came to mind was that for a place that often feels like a very small town it’s in some ways bigger than it seems. After all, I think I’ve actually never encountered someone in a social situation and then it turns out that he or she is working in the administration. Indeed, I rarely even see anyone who I knew socially before they joined the administration. Mostly executive branch political appointees seem to work very long hours and you don’t see them much and the most compromising social relationships media types tend to have is our tendency to all hang out with each other all the time.

This all got undermined, though, because last night I was invited to a bona fide insidery cocktail party straight out of Glenn Greenwald’s worst nightmare (Cass Sunstein was even there) where I met Eric Lesser who’s heavily featured in the article. So arguably my point is discredited, but I prefer to think of it as an “exception that proves the rule” kind of situation since I’m invited to fancy parties roughly never. At any rate, this is a funny anecdote Parker put together:

“What do you say to the first lady?” one male staff member, dubious of the first lady’s efforts to set him up, moaned to me during dinner at the J&G Steakhouse in the W Hotel last summer. “‘I didn’t like her? She wore a push-up bra?’”

Anyways, this was the kind of party where they have a photographer whose job it is to document all the famous/important people who are there. So my official place in the pecking order was established by the fact that Ezra Klein was photographed and I was not.

Yglesias

Writing a Blog Post on My New iPad

My dad bought me an iPad for my birthday (not actually until May 18) so I thought I would try it out as a blogging device. Verdict? Not so hot. Even up if I were more fluent with the keyboard, to produce content at high-volume it really helps a lot to have a bigger screen and you need robust multitasking. As a reading device, however, it’s great. The browser is great, NetNewsWire is great, the Kindle ap is great (indeed, I think Apple and Amazon should just cooperate on this basis rather than trying to push separate reader/store combos).

Think if it as the high-end glossy magazine paper of the digital world.

Yglesias

Policy Success/Policy Failure

Robert Farley writes about the fact that when you get something done right you tend not to get much credit for it:

These explanations aren’t mutually exclusive. Styles is certainly correct to argue that the American public is less than fully attentive to disasters that happen to brown people. However, I think that Galrahn is also right, and that there’s a very serious dilemma in this story [Haiti earthquake relief going well] for advocates of good governance. Sensible, responsive, well-staffed, well-funded governance tends to prevent horrible things from happening. When horrible things do happen, authorities respond quickly and effectively. Crisis prevention and effective crisis response, however, are inherently less interesting and less attention-getting than failed crisis response. If the 9/11 hijackers had been captured prior to conducting their attacks, very few people outside the intelligence community would have much recollection of a crucial policy victory. If the Bush administration had conducted adequate preparation for Katrina and responded effectively, there’d be relatively little shared memory of the disaster.

Success and failure in crisis response, consequently, have asymmetric political effect. The Obama administration’s response to the Haiti earthquake, in my view, has been a resounding success for responsible, capable governance. No one will remember that in six months. Bush’s response to Katrina will endure in the political memory for decades. On the one hand this is (politically) good for progressives, given that conservative efforts to gut governance tend to result in horrible disasters. On the other hand, because policy and execution failures stick in the mind longer than successes, it’s difficult to convince the general public of the importance of a responsible approach to government. In the rhetoric of anti-statist nutjobs, Katrina actually becomes an argument against adequate government, while success in Haiti fades from history.

The couple of times I’ve been brought in for meetings with members of the Obama economic policy team, this is brought home to me. Those of us brought in from the outside generally want to know why everything is so terrible. Those on the inside generally want to know why they’re not getting more credit for having (a) averted a much-worse looming catastrophe, and (b) mounted a policy response that seems a good deal more effective than what European elites are doing or than Japanese elites did after their financial meltdown. The answer, it seems to me, is that while it’s a little irrational of people to forget policy successes we also expect the people running the country to do their jobs properly. It’s great that the response to the financial crisis avoided a 1930s-style period of 20 percent unemployment, but that’s the job and you don’t get a gold star for marooning us at 10 percent.

Politics

Secretive Right-Wing Plutocrats Use Front Groups To Attack New Campaign Finance Disclosure Bill

On Thursday, Senate Democrats, along with Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) and Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE), unveiled sweeping campaign finance reform aimed at curbing campaign abuses in the wake of the conservative Citizens United decision by the Supreme Court, which struck down decades of campaign finance law. The main focus of the DISCLOSE Act (Democracy is Strengthened by Casting Light on Spending in Elections) is to increase disclosure requirements on corporations, labor unions, trade associations, and nonprofit advocacy groups that spend money on ads to influence federal elections. The DISCLOSE Act forces the CEO of a corporation or head of an advocacy group to personally appear in the organization’s ads and take responsibility, and for the top funder of the ad to appear in the ad and take responsibility.

The status quo of electioneering allows corporate powers, billionaires, and even domestic subsidiaries of foreign corporations to essentially manipulate American elections without ever revealing themselves. The DISCLOSE Act is a tremendous start at addressing this crisis of open democracy. But predictably, secretive right-wing power brokers are pushing back. As soon as Van Hollen’s bill was introduced, front groups funded by the most elusive conservative elite fired back, swiftly criticizing the new transparency requirements as a so-called threat to their First Amendment rights:

U.S. Chamber of Commerce: The DISCLOSE Act “stifles free speech.” Chamber President Tom Donohue quickly issued a statement condemning the bill as an attempt to “silence constitutionally protected speech and abridge First Amendment rights.” Donohue may feel threatened because the DISCLOSE Act undermines the very purpose of the Chamber: to attack progressive reforms while concealing the corporate money behind those attacks. For instance, the Chamber is running millions of dollars of ads against Wall Street reform, but the ads only say they are paid for by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. In fact, some of the nation’s largest financial conglomerates, including banks bailed out by taxpayers like CitiGroup, are funding the Chamber and in doing so, are underwriting these ads. Last year, the Chamber ran nearly $100 million dollars in advertising against health reform, dwarfing any other group for or against the bills in Congress. However, the Chamber never revealed that health insurance companies were secretly paying for much of those ads.

Howie Rich’s Front Group: The DISCLOSE Act is “disclosure overkill.” The Center for Competitive Politics, one of real estate tycoon Howie Rich’s many anti-government front groups, quickly slammed the bill and absurdly argued that the “stand by your ad” mandate “provid[es] no informational benefit and reduc[es] the amount of available political speech” in an ad. This laughable claim that more disclosure gives less information is a cynical cover to help Rich stay behind closed doors as he operates a massive political machine from the perch of his SoHo apartment. Rich funds the right-wing attack group, Club for Growth, as well as the Sam Adams Alliance, the libertarian group that helped Eric Odom mastermind the very first tea party protests. A PBS expose on Rich found that he had funneled $7 million dollars into anti-government state initiatives throughout the country, while carefully hiding his identity and relationship to the “movement.”

David and Charles Koch’s Front Group: The DISCLOSE Act is a “gambit to chill speech.” John Samples, a staffer at the Cato Institute — an anti-government think-tank founded by Charles Koch and funded still by David Koch — wrote an op-ed decrying the bill for curbing the speech of foreign-owned companies and for exposing the corporate backers of ads. David Koch funds Americans for Prosperity, which runs millions of dollars of attack ads against clean energy and health reform. But Americans for Prosperity bills itself as a grassroots citizens group, and never reveals that the Kochs founded the group and continues to finance it. The Koch brothers also fund a network of other secretive front groups and think tanks, but almost none of these right-wing groups openly bare the Koch name.

Notably, the Cato Institute, the Chamber of Commerce, and the Center for Competitive Politics filed amicus briefs to the Supreme Court to help knock down campaign finance laws in the Citizens United case.

The legislation also bars foreign corporations with domestic subsidiaries, federal contractors, and TARP recipients who have not repaid their funds from spending their money on politics.

Yglesias

Off Balance Sheet Explained

The whole idea of some stuff being “off the balance sheet” is an intuitively confusing notion. If it’s there, then how come it’s not on the balance sheet? Shouldn’t congress put a stop to that kind of thing? But what does it even mean? This very informative interview with Jennifer Taub will answer your questions.

Climate Progress

Oilpocalypse Now: WSJ reports BP oil disaster may be leaking at rate of 1 million gallons a day

Spill may exceed Exxon Valdez within days — not weeks

If you live along the Gulf Coast or have relevant expertise (e.g. offshore drilling, the near-impossible task of cleaning up these messes) — and are interested in writing guest posts – please contact me (click here).

Climate Progress will be following the BP oil disaster story closely for several reasons:

  1. It will be the biggest energy and environmental news story for the foreseeable future.  Eleven people are already dead and if yesterday’s Wall Street Journal story, “Experts: Oil May Be Leaking at Rate of 25,000 Barrels a Day in Gulf” (subs. req’d, excerpted below) is accurate, then the scope of the environmental disaster is far beyond anything we’ve imagined.
  2. How the story plays out will probably determine more than anything else whether there is comprehensive energy and climate legislation this year.
  3. I have been writing, researching, and speaking about oil for two decades now. My first two books discussed the oil security issue extensively, including the one I wrote for the Council on Foreign Relations in 1993, Defining National Security: the Nonmilitary Aspects. My first Congressional testimony representing the Department of Energy in 1996 was on an analysis that I did on the threat posed by growing US oil dependence (hard to read HTML here, massive PDF here). I have been following the oil and the drilling debate closely here on CP.  As I discussed in a March post, here’s what we’re going to get for all that new drilling people want to do:  EIA: New offshore drilling will lower gas prices in 2030 a few pennies a gallon.
  4. I’m already getting bombarded with emails from experts with angles and analyses on the disaster that I haven’t seen discussed in the media yet.

Did I mention it’s time to get off the dirty, unsafe energy sources of the 19th century that can’t sustain the human race and that’s it’s time to redouble our efforts to embrace the clean, safe energy sources of the 21st century that never run out?

Here is my segment on Countdown with Keith Olbermann from Thursday night, when we had just learned that BP’s confident statements the leak was small and they could handle it were dead wrong:

Read more

Politics

Agency postpones awards ceremony celebrating offshore oil drilling safety.

Since the offshore oil rig spill in the Gulf of Mexico, federal regulators at the Minerals Management Service (MMS) have been coming under increasing scrutiny for whether they were negligent in overseeing the rigs owned by BP and others. At a press conference yesterday morning, Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) compared it to the SEC’s failure to enforce regulations leading up to the financial crisis. Ironically, MMS was all set to hold its annual “2010 Annual Industry SAFE Awards Luncheon” on May 3. Perhaps recognizing that now is not the time to applaud the oil industry for safety on the job, MMS postponed the event. From the agency’s website:

The LA Times notes that last year, BP “was among the luncheon’s winners, cited for ‘outstanding dedication and leadership in promoting improved medical care and evacuation capabilities for offshore facilities.’” During the Bush administration, MMS was embroiled in scandal over its employees being in bed (sometimes literally) with the oil industry it was supposed to be regulating.

Update

Get Energy Smart! notes that BP was a finalist for a SAFE award this year.

Yglesias

Real GDP Still Well Below Peak

The concepts of “recession” and “recovery” have to do with change, and so we’re now in a recovery because things are getting better. But as this Calculated Risk chart makes clear actual conditions are still much worse than they were pre-crisis:

Real GDP as a Percent of Previous Peak Q1 2010 1

Note that because of population growth, real GDP needs to go higher than it was pre-peak for per capital living standards to re-obtain their high point. And because of population growth and productivity growth, unemployment won’t come down to a decent level until demand is strong enough for GDP that’s even higher than that.

Older

Switch to Mobile
ThinkProgress Signup Overlay Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress

Sign Up