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Yglesias

Kandahar Offensive Now Merely A “Process”

Jonathon Burch and Ismail Sameem for Reuters open with further indications that the people of Kandahar aren’t interested in the upcoming NATO offense. But they also add this:

Commanders are playing down the possibility of heavy fighting in the city, stressing the political aims of extending the reach of the Afghan state into an area of growing Taliban influence.

Even the language adopted by military officials has changed, with words like “operation” or “offensive” no longer used.

“We would like to call it a process that is encompassing military and non-military instruments,” Brigadier General Josef Blotz, the spokesman for NATO forces, told reporters this week.

Is there a “rolling my eyes” emoticon?

Politics

BREAKING: BP Effort To Use Dome To Contain Oil Disaster Fails

The Wonk Room has completed its live blogging from the Gulf Coast.

CofferdamEfforts to contain the Deepwater Horizon oil gusher with a 100-ton, four-story concrete-and-steel box have failed, BP officials announced. The giant box, known as a cofferdam, was lowered onto the leaking wellhead yesterday, with the intent of pumping the leaking oil up a pipe to the sea surface a mile above. However, BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles announced in a press briefing this afternoon that the dome effort failed. After the cofferdam was lowered onto the leak site, a slurry of methane crystals formed on the inside of the dome’s surface, making it bouyant and clogging the outtake at the dome’s roof.

The giant box has been moved 200 meters from the disaster site, and is sitting on the sea bed. BP had anticipated that methane hydrates could form within the pipework from the dome to the surface, but not within the dome itself, especially at such a rapid rate.

Suttles, clearly chastened by this setback, had a much less confident tone about containing the leak than he had at previous press conferences, such as the one attended on Tuesday by the Wonk Room when he announced the cofferdam was being shipped out to the disaster site. “It’s very difficult to say whether solutions will work,” he admitted.

The methane hydrates — natural gas that under the extreme pressure and low temperatures of the ocean floor is in a semi-frozen state — have also been implicated in the oil rig explosion, according to rig worker testimony acquired by the Associated Press. The liberal blog FireDogLake was the first media source to discuss the role of hydrates, noting a presentation from November, 2009 by Halliburton, who was responsible for cementing the Deepwater Horizon well, that warned of blowouts caused by hydrate destabilization:

Destabilization of hydrates during cementing and production in deepwater environments is a challenge to the safety and economics.

Suttles also admitted that David Rainey, BP’s VP for Gulf of Mexico exploration, was on the rig celebrating its safety record when it blew up. Although 11 workers were killed, Rainey and the other BP employees on the rig safely escaped the inferno.

Also during the briefing, Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry was unusually optimistic about the preparations being made for the oil that is just now reaching the shores of Louisiana, but looms closer to the entire Gulf Coast as each day passes: “We’re ready for it.”

Cross-posted on the Wonk Room.

Update

From FireDogLake:

When asked whether the dome effort had “failed,” the BP official said, “I wouldn’t say it has failed, yet, . . . but it hasn’t worked.”

Climate Progress

Breaking: BP dealt setback in containing undersea volcano of oil with 100-ton dome

The effort to place a containment dome over a gushing wellhead was dealt a setback when a large volume of hydrates — crystals formed when gas combines with water — accumulated inside of the vessel, BP’s chief operating officer said Saturday.

CNN’s wire story just ran.  The new is bad, though not entirely unexpected, since nothing like this has ever been tried before.

UPDATE:  I would note that if BP or any other major thought 1) this type of disaster was conceivable and/or that this dome strategy was  particularly plausible, then they would have pre-built and pre-positioned one in the Gulf years ago (see BP calls blowout disaster ‘inconceivable,’ ‘unprecedented,’ and unforeseeable).

BP has not given up on the dome:

Read more

Climate Progress

Breaking: BP Effort To Use Dome To Contain Oil Disaster Fails

The Wonk Room has completed its live blogging from the Gulf Coast.

CofferdamEfforts to contain the Deepwater Horizon oil gusher with a 100-ton, four-story concrete-and-steel box have failed, BP officials announced. The giant box, known as a cofferdam, was lowered onto the leaking wellhead yesterday, with the intent of pumping the leaking oil up a pipe to the sea surface a mile above. However, BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles announced in a press briefing this afternoon that the dome effort failed. After the cofferdam was lowered onto the leak site, a slurry of methane crystals formed on the inside of the dome’s surface, making it bouyant and clogging the outtake at the dome’s roof.

The giant box has been moved 200 meters from the disaster site, and is sitting on the sea bed. BP had anticipated that methane hydrates could form within the pipework from the dome to the surface, but not within the dome itself, especially at such a rapid rate.

Suttles, clearly chastened by this setback, had a much less confident tone about containing the leak than he had at previous press conferences, such as the one attended on Tuesday by the Wonk Room when he announced the cofferdam was being shipped out to the disaster site. “It’s very difficult to say whether solutions will work,” he admitted.

The methane hydrates — natural gas that under the extreme pressure and low temperatures of the ocean floor is in a semi-frozen state — have also been implicated in the oil rig explosion, according to rig worker testimony acquired by the Associated Press. The liberal blog FireDogLake was the first media source to discuss the role of hydrates, noting a presentation from November, 2009 by Halliburton, who was responsible for cementing the Deepwater Horizon well, that warned of blowouts caused by hydrate destabilization:

Destabilization of hydrates during cementing and production in deepwater environments is a challenge to the safety and economics.

Suttles also admitted that David Rainey, BP’s VP for Gulf of Mexico exploration, was on the rig celebrating its safety record when it blew up. Although 11 workers were killed, Rainey and the other BP employees on the rig safely escaped the inferno.

Also during the briefing, Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry was unusually optimistic about the preparations being made for the oil that is just now reaching the shores of Louisiana, but looms closer to the entire Gulf Coast as each day passes: “We’re ready for it.”

Update

Tar balls are washing up on Alabama’s Dauphin Island.


Update

,From FireDogLake:

When asked whether the dome effort had “failed,” the BP official said, “I wouldn’t say it has failed, yet, . . . but it hasn’t worked.”


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Yglesias

The Cost of Iraq

My colleagues Matt Duss, Peter Juul, and Brian Katulis have a memo out in which they try to tally up the full cost of Iraq—human, financial, and strategic—and discover that the price was very, very, very high.

I think this is important because I’ve developed a concern in the wake of the “surge” and the Obama administration’s embrace of counterinsurgency and General David Petraeus that some kind of cross-party conventional wisdom is going to emerge that Iraq was a tough fight with a couple of bad years, but ultimately a reasonable policy decision that worked out well enough. It wasn’t and it didn’t.

Politics

Iowa lawmaker presses the state to discriminate against LGBT families at campgrounds.

In April 2009, Iowa’s Supreme Court unanimously overturned a 10-year-old ban on same-sex marriage. Although the far right claimed that this decision would upend traditional marriage, a September 2009 Des Moines Register poll found 92 percent of Iowans believed marriage equality had “brought no real change to their lives.” But now, Iowa state Sen. Merlin Bartz (R) is trying to convince the public that LGBT families threaten the institution of…camping. Radio Iowa explains why Bartz is so upset:

Senator Merlin Bartz, a Republican from Grafton, says it appears to him that the Department of Natural Resources wants to make gay couples eligible for family camping at state parks. “They’re citing the Supreme Court case and changing, you know, ‘husband and wife’ language to ’spouse,’” Bartz says.

The rates or fees for camp sites are the same, whether you’re a family or a non-family, but the state allows families to put up more than one tent on a camp site. “They’re changing their language even though the state legislature has not had a debate on this particular issue,” Bartz says. [...]

Bartz says he wants to be “vigilant” and keep state agencies from writing rules that extend new benefits to gay couples. “A lot of the advocates of gay marriage in Iowa have said, ‘It doesn’t affect anything. Nothing has changed,’” Bartz says. “The reality of it is that everything is changing.”

The Iowa Department of Natural Resources has stated that the change isn’t in response to the state Supreme Court ruling, but to “comply with a state policy that prevents discrimination.” Radio Iowa explains, “The proposed rule will be formally presented to Bartz and the rest of the legislative panel on May10th, but the final draft won’t be up for a committee vote until later this summer.” Bartz has been a staunch opponent of marriage equality, last year calling on county recorders to refuse to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. (HT: Towleroad)

Update

One Iowa has a KAAL-TV report on the controversy.

Security

Greece And The Failure Of Conservative Economics And German Leadership

109-bush-kisses-merkelFor a few hours on Thursday, it looked like it was September 2008 all over again, as the global financial system appeared to be on the brink of having a meltdown. This time, the crisis wasn’t over banks, but over countries — specifically over fears that Greece won’t be able to pay back its mounting debt. While the massive stock market drop may have been made worse due to a computer glitch and fears of a Lehman-style meltdown have somewhat subsided, the fact is that the global economy is by no means out of the woods.

There can be little surprise that conservatives in America are drawing the exact wrong lessons from the Greek debt crisis. Dave Weigel points out that “Greece has become the new France” to conservatives, as Rep. Tod Tiahrt (R-KS) exclaimed:

[O]ur nation’s debt held by the public will reach an astonishing 90 percent of Gross Domestic Product within ten years. By comparison, Greece’s current debt to GDP ratio of 112.5 percent has resulted in a lowering of their credit rating to junk status. Without dramatic spending restraint, the U.S. is on a path toward the same crisis.

This is dangerous and misguided. The United States is in no danger of defaulting — our economy is growing and due to fears over the Euro, investors are boosting the value of the dollar. Yes debt is bad, and a lot of debt is really bad. Greece is definitely to blame for a failure to modernize its state and its economy over the last decade, but this isn’t about bailing out Greece any more — it is about Europe.

Just as the failure to rescue Lehman Brothers allowed the floodgates of the crisis to open, endangering other banks and the whole financial system, the failure to promptly and aggressively deal with Greece has lead to fears that contagion will spread to other European countries – such as Portugal and Spain. And just as the financial bailout was not about saving a particular bank — but about preventing America’s financial collapse and therefore the U.S. economy — the belated Greek bailout is not about saving lazy Greek pensioners — it’s about saving European banks and Europe’s financial system.

The problem is that the bailout for Greece and the subsequent austerity plan in many ways seems likely to fail. As Paul Krugman fears, it could send Greece into a deflationary death spiral, where its economy rapidly shrinks following cuts in public spending, this economic contraction leads to lower revenues, only making Greece less able to pay back its debts, which as a result lead to further economic collapse with Greece having to leave the Euro. This is the deflationary death spiral that America faced in ’08-’09 and would have certainly commenced if conservative austerity plans had carried the day. Yet the stimulus package and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive expansionary policy successfully avoided this outcome and now growth has returned.

Yet in Europe, efforts to stimulate have been limited. This is largely the result of German Chancellor Angela Merkel — the leader of Europe’s economic engine. Contrary to most American assumptions, Germany is highly conservative economically and has consistently adopted an approach that was overly preoccupied with fighting non-existent inflation and was highly suspicious of deficit spending. Last year Merkel and Larry Summers even publicly sparred over U.S. stimulus funding, and as Matt Yglesias has pointed out, the European Central Bank — which is largely under the thumb of Germany — has resisted injecting any life into the broader European economy. This suits Germany fine, but it is detrimental to the economies of countries on Europe’s periphery.

Now Merkel, realizing that the whole European monetary system could crash, has gotten on board a bailout package to help pay off its debt — much of which just happens to be owed to German banks. But this may have come too little too late. And any efforts to stimulate the Euro-zone have been punted by the European Central Bank, which has resisted lowering interest rates. In an excellent analysis of the crisis, the Washington Post’s Steve Pearlstein notes the emerging irony:

Back when the global financial crisis began in earnest in 2008, Europeans were quick to blame it all on Americans who lent unwisely and borrowed excessively. So it is more than a bit ironic that, having long denied its own forays into unwise lending and excessive borrowing, it is Europe that seems to be leading the global economy into the second phase of the crisis.

Merkel’s reluctance to act is not just a failure of German economic thinking, but a failure of German international leadership. In the wake of the ’08 economic crisis, European eyes turned to Berlin and Brussels. This gave Germany the opportunity over the course of the last two years to both assert itself as Europe’s leader, as well as set a clear course for the European project, which had gone adrift over the last half decade. Instead, Merkel has balked, choosing parochialism over bold leadership.

While this can all be seen as rational, since one could argue she is just pursuing what is in Germany’s national interest. But this is a very limited view of “national interest.” A larger conception of national interest understands the fact that Germany needs a strong Europe. Bailing out Greece and taking a leadership role in Europe is not charity, it is about enlightened self-interest. Instead, Merkel’s approach toward Europe and international affairs is one that leaves Germany, as well as the EU, punching below its weight on the international stage.

Yglesias

Everything You Wanted to Know About “Minority Governments” But Were Afraid to Ask

In parliamentary systems where no one party commands a majority, you normally see a coalition. Sometimes, though, like in Canada right now and probably soon in the UK you see a “minority government” where the biggest party just takes control and tries to navigate bills through parliament. Erik Voeten offers a brief summary of what we know about such governments. Long story short, they tend not to last very long but they do about as good a job as any other government.

Yglesias

The Left and Economics

According to Zeljka Buturovic and Dan Klein, people who self-identify as “progressive” have low levels of economic knowledge whereas those who self-identify as “libertarian” or “very conservative” rank very highly. For reasons suggested by Tyler Cowen, I think that conclusion is nonsense. But I do think they have the goods on the fact that people who self-identify with the left have some trouble grasping the interplay of prices and supply restrictions. Todd Zywicky pulls out these facts:

—67% of self-described Progressives believe that restrictions on housing development (i.e., regulations that reduce the supply of housing) do not make housing less affordable.
—51% believe that mandatory licensing of professionals (i.e., reducing the supply of professionals) doesn’t increase the cost of professional services.
—Perhaps most amazing, 79% of self-described Progressive believe that rent control (i.e., price controls) does not lead to housing shortages.

Zywicki, trying to make mountains out of molehills, calls the results “startling.” Speaking as someone who doesn’t believe any of those things and who actually writes on two of these issues frequently, I’m not even slightly surprised. I find the situation unfortunate, which is one reason I write on these topics. He then gets sarcastic and says “Apparently the existence of a ‘consensus’ among trained scholars on certain policy issues is less important on some issues than others.”

As best I can tell, his argument is that because many rank-and-file progressives have mistaken ideas about economics, it’s okay for conservatives to have wrong ideas about climate science. But I don’t understand why anyone would think that. It’s important for people to have the right ideas! Inability to see that supply-restrictions on housing raise the price of housing is a big problem. Inability to see that carbon dioxide emissions are leading to ecological catastrophe is a big problem. The good news about progressives is that actual policymaking in, for example, the Obama administration is not based on elementary errors of economic policy. Larry Summers, Peter Orszag, Tim Geithner and their key deputies all understand the situation perfectly well as do leading progressive political commentators like Paul Krugman. Unfortunately, the situation with climate science and the right is by no means parallel in this regard.

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