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Politics

Experts: BP disaster spilling the equivalent of two Exxon Valdezes a week.

Based on “sophisticated scientific analysis of seafloor video made available Wednesday,” Steve Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, told NPR the actual spill rate of the BP oil disaster is about 3 million gallons a day — 15 times the official guess of BP and the federal government. Another scientific expert, Eugene Chiang, a professor of astrophysics at the University of California, Berkeley, calculated the rate of flow to be between 840,000 and four million gallons a day. These estimates mean that the Deepwater Horizon wreckage could have spilled about five times as much oil as the 12-million-gallon Exxon Valdez disaster, with relief only guaranteed by BP in three more months. Watch video of oil flooding out of one of the two remaining leaks, which BP had suppressed for weeks:

On Tuesday, BP America president Lamar McKay testified under oath before the Senate that “you can’t measure what’s coming out at the seabed.”

Update

In an email to ThinkProgress, Dr. Wereley clarifies: “My analysis is based strictly on what is seen in the video, so only one pipe and only for that brief period of time. I’m making no claims about what happened earlier or what may happen in the future.”

Alyssa

Law and Order on the Verge of Dismissal

The original one, too. Damn. I’ve probably seen every episode of this show twice–and not necessarily on purpose. It seems to be playing on some channel at all hours of the day. But at its debut, Law and Order was a new kind of show, one of the first TV dramas to attempt to reveal the justice system as a partnership between the courts and law enforcement. Recent episodes rely too heavily on real-life headlines for story lines, but earlier seasons strove for authenticity.

Though it’s all just speculation right now, NBC doesn’t seem to be trying too hard to quash rumors: “It’s a fluid situation,” says a source close to the talks. “It’s not a done deal. It’s possible this is just a negotiations tactic.”  Law and Order been an NBC mainstay for two decades; it could be considered NBC’s flagship series. So, why would a mainstay need to negotiate?

Because it’s old. SVU is Law and Order‘s younger, prettier sister–Mariska Hargitay and Chris Meloni (whoo, child) make justice exciting and sexy. Law and Order is the show my parents watch–older actors,  and a formula that doesn’t leave a lot of room for growth. It’s familiar and predictable–while that makes for great syndication, it doesn’t work so well with new episodes.

If this does happen, there are going to be some great actors out of work, S. Epatha Merkerson and Sam Watterson among them. But the show has had a good run, and it’s time for it to retire. After all, we’ve got Law and Order: Los Angeles to look forward to.

Security

Inhofe Says U.S. Soldiers Will Be Unwilling To Fight And Die For Their Gay Comrades

In an interview with American Family Association (AFA) radio yesterday, Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) argued against repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell (DADT), arguing that basically, members of the U.S. military are too bigoted to be willing to fight and die for the “guy in the next foxhole” if that guy happens to be gay:

INHOFE: For those of us — and I’m one of them — who have gone through the military, gone through basic training, and you stop and think — it just doesn’t make any sense. Second of all, it’s just not working. You have women, men, then you have a third group to deal with, and they’re not equipped to do that.

And you know — you hear the stories all the time. A military guy — I happen to be Army, and Army and Marines always feel that when we’re out there, we’re not doing it for the flag or the country; we’re doing it for the guy in the next foxhole. And that would dramatically change that.

Watch it:

Inhofe shouldn’t assume that all members of the military are as homophobic as he is. A December 2006 survey of servicemembers who had served in Iraq or Afghanistan found that 73 percent of those polled were “comfortable with lesbians and gays.” The Servicemembers Legal Defense Network has reported that more than 500 U.S. soldiers are “out” to their colleagues and continue to serve. When Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen announced his personal belief that now is the time to repeal DADT, he cited the fact that he has served with gay comrades since 1968.

“I also believe that the great young men and women of our military can and would accommodate such a change,” he added, giving members of the military more credit than Inhofe did. “I never underestimate their ability to adapt.” (HT: Right Wing Watch)

Cross-posted on ThinkProgress.

Alyssa

Everything Happening in Pop Culture This Week (That I Care About)

Over at my blog, I called the week starting today “The Most Incredibly Exciting Week Ever,” and while that’s overstating things a bit, there is an awful lot of pop culture stuff going on in the next eight days or so. Alyssa suggested I link to the little calendar I wrote up, so here you go. There’s a lot of TV, plus some music, books, and movies. Oh, and Google. Enjoy!

Security

Secretary Gates: Military Unanimously Backs START

JCSIn an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal today, Secretary Gates put further pressure on Senate Republicans looking to oppose START. Gates emphasized that the treaty had the “unanimous support” of the US military and that past arms-control treaties had passed with overwhelming bipartisan support. In other words, Gates was telling Senate Republicans that opposing this treaty would put them in direct opposition to the uniformed military and historic Republican support for arms-control.

Gates couldn’t have been more clear on the military’s support for START:

The New START Treaty has the unanimous support of America’s military leadership—to include the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, all of the service chiefs, and the commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, the organization responsible for our strategic nuclear deterrent.

Gates added that similar past treaties have garnered overwhelming bipartisan support:

For nearly 40 years, treaties to limit or reduce nuclear weapons have been approved by the U.S. Senate by strong bipartisan majorities. This treaty deserves a similar reception and result.

The clear implication of these statements is that Senate opposition to this treaty demonstrates extremism. Yet conservatives are still desperately searching for grounds over which to oppose the treaty. This has increasingly put them at odds with military leaders. For instance, on missile defense, Senator James Inhofe insisted at a Senate Armed Services hearing a few weeks ago that General Patrick O’Reilly was wrong in his assessment of the new missile defense plans.

The Gates oped comes as a preview for a slew of hearings on START that not only involve him, Secretary of State Clinton, and Admiral Mullen but James Baker and Henry Kissinger. The testimony of Secretaries Baker in Kissinger will likely further expose the growing struggle on the right between traditional conservative foreign policy leaders and the emerging far right tea-party approach to foreign policy.

These hearings also come on the back of recent testimony by former Nixon Secretary of Defense, James Schlesinger, a figure that the Wall Street Journal called the “yoda” for nuclear strategists and is a beacon for the far right on nuclear policy. Schlesinger came out in support of the START treaty at a Senate hearing and when asked if he had confidence in Secretary Gates, Schlesinger said, he had “great confidence in Secretary Gates.”

Gates’ oped also further clarifies the fact that conservatives in the Senate are not just facing a test of their ideological and partisan bent, but whether they are so far to the paranoid right that they don’t even trust our military leaders anymore.

Politics

After Saying Senate Should Prepare For Other Spills, Murkowski Votes Against Increasing Big Oil’s Liability

Murkowskiprotest As the ongoing oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico continues to ravage the southeastern coast of the United States, Congress is working on federal reforms that would decrease the likelihood of future disasters and force oil companies to take more responsibility for the financial cost of such catastrophes.

One senator who claims to be in support of such reforms is Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Following the spill, she introduced legislation that would increase the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund, a special fund paid for by a pennies-per-barrel fee that oil companies pay into to cleanup potential spills, up to $10 billion — an increase from the $1.6 billion currently in it. In a statement accompanying the introduction of her legislation, Murkowski claimed the amendment is “one of several steps” Congress should take to make sure we’re “prepared to respond adequately in the unlikely event of future spills”:

In 2005, Sen. Murkowski proposed increasing the industry per-barrel fee that supports the liability fund by 60 percent. Her new amendment make sure the fund would not be depleted by a single catastrophic spill.

“While this won’t resolve all of the potential issues arising from the Deepwater Horizon accident, it’s one of several steps the Senate should take to see that we’re prepared to respond adequately in the unlikely event of future spills,” Sen. Murkowski said.

This afternoon, the Senate debated legislation introduced by Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) that would’ve increased the maximum liability oil companies could have for oil spills from $75 million to $10 billion. Despite her high-minded rhetoric about the steps Congress needs to take to respond to future spills, Murkowski objected to Menendez’s requested voice vote, stopping his legislation from going forward:

Alaska’s senior senator blocked legislation Thursday that would have dramatically increased liability caps on oil companies, in the wake of one of the industry’s biggest disasters.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) objected to a voice vote request by Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) on the bill, which would have spiked the maximum liability for oil companies after an oil spill from $75 million to $10 billion. The legislation has significant support from Democrats, and the White House has indicated it backs an increase in liability caps.

Following the failure of his bill to come up for a vote, Menendez responded, “It’s straightforward, it’s common sense. Either you want to fully protect the small businesses, individuals and communities devastated by a man-made disaster — this is not a natural disaster; this is a man-made disaster — or you want to protect multibillion-dollar oil companies from being held fully accountable. Apparently there are some in the Senate who prefer to protect the oil companies.”

Climate Progress

Arctic poised to see record low sea ice volume this year

Ice Volume PIOMAS

UPDATE:  Two commenters pointed me to the Polar Science Center. They look to have the best Arctic ice volume model around — and it’s been validated (see below).  Note:  “Anomalies for each day are calculated relative to the average over the 1979 -2009 period for that day to remove the annual cycle.”

The big Arctic news remains the staggering decline in multiyear ice “” and hence ice volume.  If we get near the Arctic’s sea ice area (or extent) seen in recent years this summer, then this may well mean record low ice volume — the fourth straight year of low volume.  And the latest extent data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center suggests we will:

Read more

Politics

As Tar Balls Wash Up On Gulf Coast, Support For Drilling Plummets In North Carolina

As BP attempts to once again plug the massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, balls of tar have begun washing up on the “prized white sands” of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, alongside dead dolphins, sea turtles and 600 dead catfish. The Coast Guard released these photos yesterday of tar on Raccoon Island in Louisiana, “a protected bird breeding sanctuary with a variety of breeds“:

TarBalls6

As ThinkProgress has noted, a number former pro-drilling advocates from affected states have reconsidered their support in the wake of the disaster. In Florida, which could face major economic fallout from the spill, Gov. Charlie Crist (I) said the disaster convinced him that offshore drilling “certainly isn’t safe enough,” and today called for a constitutional amendment to ban drilling off his state’s coast. A majority of voters in Florida now oppose drilling, in “stark contrast” to a poll from last year which showed majority support.

A new PPP poll shows that even in North Carolina, which is not likely to be directly affected by the spill, support for drilling has fallen off precipitously:

In April 61% of voters said they supported it with only 26% opposed. Now in the wake of the spill in the Gulf support has declined to 47% with 38% of voters against it. This is the first time PPP has ever found less than majority support for drilling in the state.

It’s unusual to see that big a change in how North Carolinians feels about a particular issue in such a short period of time, but it’s clear the spill has given many voters in the state second thoughts. 50% said it made them less supportive of allowing drilling off the state’s coast, compared to 28% who said it made no difference, and 22% who said the spill actually made them more supportive of drilling here.

PPP notes that the tumble in support for drilling has “come across party lines,” with a 17 point drop among independents, a 16 point drop among Democrats, and an 11 point drop among Republicans. A recent Rasmussen poll found that support for oil drilling nationally has “fallen dramatically” since the spill.

Economy

27 Republicans Sign Resolution To Block Use Of Democratic Process In Union Elections

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA)

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA)

This week, the National Mediation Board (NMB) announced a rule change making union elections under the Railway Labor Act (RLA) more democratic. Previously, under the RLA, workers who did not cast votes in an election were counted as having voted against unionization. Now, though, they will simply not be counted at all, like non-voters in any election for political office.

This change has upset airlines governed by the RLA — particularly Delta Airlines, which is largely non-union — prompting them to launch a lawsuit in an attempt to block the rule change. And these corporations have some allies in Congress, who have launched a concurrent attempt to legislatively prevent the change.

The charge is being led by Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA), whose number one campaign contributor this election cycle is Atlanta-based Delta. He is circling a “resolution of disapproval,” which, if adopted by both the Senate and the House and signed by the President within 60 days of a rule being published, negates that rule’s effect. “I will use all available tools at my disposal…to see that this assault on employee rights does not stand,” Isakson said.

So far, Isakson has managed to drum up 27 co-sponsors for his resolution. It’s quite remarkable that these lawmakers are willing to sign their names to a document rendering disapproval of the democratic process. After all, they are explicitly endorsing the idea that uncast votes should be counted one way or the other.

Plus, as United Steelworkers International President Leo Gerard wrote, the process which the NMB overturned provided huge incentives for corporations to inflate their workforce numbers, in order to increase the number of votes necessary to approve the union:

Compounding that supermajority obstacle was the NMB practice of permitting employers to determine who was eligible to vote, then excusing them from providing that list to workers seeking collective bargaining. This created an incentive for employers to “accidently” include the names of workers who’d quit or retired — ineligible voters whose inability to cast ballots created automatic “no” votes. Writing about losing an election in 2008, Delta flight attendant Linda Sorenson said airline officials released its list after the balloting. Among other problems, it included the name of a deceased worker.

These sorts of shenanigans have no place in a fair election process, and the system which the Republicans are trying to preserve obviously incentivizes them. But Isakson is pressing on, undeterred. “We will have the signatures necessary to discharge my resolution of disapproval, to bring about a vote on the floor of the Senate,” Isakson said yesterday. Fortunately, the odds of President Obama signing such a resolution, even if Isakson found 51 votes in favor of it in the Senate, are, I think, effectively nil.

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