ThinkProgress Logo

Yglesias

Swedish Murder Rate

By Matthew Yglesias

This Foreign Policy article on Steig Larsson and the decline of the Swedish utopia concludes with what seems to me to be a whopper of a factual error:

If you look at the statistics, Sweden is not a particularly violent country, nor a particularly lenient one to criminals. It is in about the middle of the European averages for both figures. There were 230 homicides in Sweden in 2009, compared with 143 in Washington, D.C., which has a population a bit more than half Sweden’s size. But compare these figures to what they were in the years when Sweden looked like a utopia. In 1990, there were 120 homicides in Sweden, and 472 in Washington. There is a convergence here that doesn’t flatter Sweden.

In fact, there are 9.3 million people in Sweden and only 600,000 in Sweden. In other words, Sweden has about fifteen times the population of Washington DC and less than half the murders. Stockholm is a bit larger than DC, and its murder rate of 3 per 100,000 in 2009 is way lower than DC’s murder rate of 24 per 100,000. And indeed you can see that the relatively low level of violent crime in Sweden is a necessary backdrop for the plot of Larsson’s books. In The Girl Who Played With Fire a triple-murder in Stockholm becomes a major news story that dominates nationwide media attention for several days.

Update

Sorry, Sweden has fifteen times the population of DC and twice the murders, not half the murders. The point, however, is that the murder rate in DC is dramatically lower than either the overall Sweden murder rate or the Stockholm murder rate. It seems clear that the author of the piece meant to refer to the population of the overall Washington DC metropolitan area but if that’s what he wants to talk about then he needs to add up the total number of murders in that area.

Economy

Is BP Oil Catastrophe ‘Unprecedented’? Hardly

Numerous politicians and oil industry officials have claimed the BP oil catastrophe growing in the Gulf of Mexico is “unprecedented.” From BP CEO Tony Hayward, who called his company’s environmental crime an “unprecedented accident,” to Admiral Thad Allen, U.S. Coast Guard, who called it an “unprecedented anomalous event,” officials and pundits have given the impression that the consequences of this catastrophe could not have been predicted. In a Congressional oversight hearing on the apocalyptic disaster on Thursday, Rep. Doc Hastings (R-WA) even argued the country should respond to this “unprecedented” event by making sure “that we continue to produce oil here in the states.”

Watch a compilation prepared by ThinkProgress:

On Thursday, May 27, Rep. George Miller (D-CA) responded to the myth that this catastrophe was unprecedented and thus unforeseeable:

Every time we have a catastrophic event like this involving British Petroleum or other parts of the oil and gas industry, we’re told that this is an unpredictable cascade of unforeseeable errors, that this is unprecedented, that nobody could have foreseen this. This is sort of like the bankers on Wall Street. Nobody could have foreseen the risks that they engineered themselves, so nobody’s responsible. I don’t believe this was some “black swan” or “perfect storm” event. There wasn’t something that could not have been foreseen. And I don’t think this is something you can promise will never happen again.

Like the rest of the oil industry, BP has a long record of tragic, extraordinary environmental disasters, stretching from Alaska to Nigeria. And this particular disaster is not unprecedented in size, in the kind of accident, nor in the methods used to respond. There have been dozens of oil well blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, including 39 since 2007, and the worst oil blowout in history in 1979. What makes this catastrophe new is its location in the fertile and fragile ecosystem of the northern Gulf, and the depth at which the well was drilled, increasing the dangers. But this event is yet another tragic reminder of the truth of George Santayana’s dire maxim: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Cross-posted on the Wonk Room.

Update

On Wednesday, Rachel Maddow described on her MSNBC show how the 1979 Ixtoc I blowout in the Gulf of Mexico — the largest accidental oil spill in history — was eerily similar to today’s Deepwater Horizon blowout. However, the Ixtoc’s failed cofferdam effort was called a “sombrero,” a totally different kind of headgear from BP’s failed “top hat.”

Climate Progress

‘Unprecedented’ Oil Catastrophe Repeats History

Numerous politicians and oil industry officials have claimed the BP oil catastrophe growing in the Gulf of Mexico is “unprecedented.” From BP CEO Tony Hayward, who called his company’s environmental crime an “unprecedented accident,” to Admiral Thad Allen, U.S. Coast Guard, who called it an “unprecedented anomalous event,” officials and pundits have given the impression that the consequences of this catastrophe could not have been predicted. In a Congressional oversight hearing on the apocalyptic disaster on Thursday, Rep. Doc Hastings (R-WA) even argued the country should respond to this “unprecedented” event by making sure “that we continue to produce oil here in the states.”

Watch a compilation prepared by the Wonk Room:

On Thursday, May 27, Rep. George Miller (D-CA) responded to the myth that this catastrophe was unprecedented and thus unforeseeable:

Every time we have a catastrophic event like this involving British Petroleum or other parts of the oil and gas industry, we’re told that this is an unpredictable cascade of unforeseeable errors, that this is unprecedented, that nobody could have foreseen this. This is sort of like the bankers on Wall Street. Nobody could have foreseen the risks that they engineered themselves, so nobody’s responsible. I don’t believe this was some “black swan” or “perfect storm” event. There wasn’t something that could not have been foreseen. And I don’t think this is something you can promise will never happen again.

Like the rest of the oil industry, BP has a long record of tragic, extraordinary environmental disasters, stretching from Alaska to Nigeria. And this particular disaster is not unprecedented in size, in the kind of accident, nor in the methods used to respond. There have been dozens of oil well blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, including 39 since 2007.

As Rachel Maddow described on her MSNBC show Wednesday, the largest accidental oil spill in history, Ixtoc I, was eerily similar. That 1979 disaster took place off the coast of Mexico in the Gulf of Mexico, a months-long runaway blowout in which the blowout preventer failed. One-hundred-thirty million gallons of oil spilled into the Gulf after cofferdam and top-kill and junk-shot efforts failed, until relief wells were finally drilled. The efforts to limit the catastrophe have not changed either, as booms, dispersants, and burns were used to limit the spread of Ixtoc’s plumes of oil.

Watch the Maddow segment about history repeating itself:

To be fair, the Ixtoc I cofferdam effort was called a “sombrero,” a totally different kind of headgear from BP’s “top hat.”

What makes this catastrophe new is its location in the fertile and fragile ecosystem of the northern Gulf, and the depth at which the well was drilled, increasing the dangers. But this event is yet another tragic reminder of the truth of George Santayana’s dire maxim: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

Yglesias

Endgame

By Matt Zeitlin

I run more game than the Bulls and Sonics

- Is this why Judd Gregg didn’t take the Commerce Secretary offer?

- Angry that Guantanamo isn’t closed? The administration hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory, but neither has Congress.

- The one word essay prompt at All Souls always seemed like a great thing if you wanted to test people’s ability to pull clever,  substance-free thoughts with lots of highfalutin references out of their asses. I do, however, wonder what Derek Parfit wrote for his.

- ESPN is trying really, really hard to get Americans interested in the World Cup, and not by overhyping the U.S. team.

- On that note, the MLS still kinda sucks.

- Leon Wieseltier on Sheikh Jarrah.

- Peter Beinart: dirty stinking commie.

- Quantum mechanics is not “responsible” for postmodernism. The difficulty of interpreting language or constructing grand narratives out of social phenomena has nothing to do with not being able to know with the same precision the momentum and position of a particle. If we had a pre-quantum mechanics understanding of the world, it would have no bearing on the validity, truth or usefulness of the claims and arguments of postmodernists.

I know some of you might not like Nelly, but he’s playing at Northwestern tomorrow and “Country Grammar,” for what it’s worth, holds up.

Have a fun weekend.

Health

GOP Leadership Introduces Its Own ‘Repeal And Replace’ Health Care Bill

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH)

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH)

In a move that will certainly upset all-or-nothing repeal advocate Rep. Steve King (R-IA), the Republican leadership in the House has finally introduced a 9-page “bill” (read: press release in legislative language) to repeal the health care law and replace it with the Republican alternative already defeated on the House floor in November.

The legislation lists 25 grievances Republicans have with the Democrats plan — including the fact that “the national unemployment rate remains near 10 percent — quotes studies by conservative groups like the Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) and regurgitates debunked smears about IRS agents, rationing, and the so-called marriage penalty.

Sponsors of the legislation concede that the bill is dead on arrival and King believes that the bill will undermine the entire GOP repeal effort:

Asked of the chances the measure would move through the House, Herger’s Democratic counterpart, Rep. Pete Stark (Calif.), responded, “Like a prayer in hell.” ….The chairman of the Ways and Means Health subcommittee admitted he hadn’t seen the GOP measure but added, “It’s probably lousy.” [...]

Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) said in an interview with The Hill that Republicans “should be for 100 percent repeal. The replacement component of it should be a separate question because it blurs the issue; once you tie a comprehensive replacement to a repeal bill, you’ve guaranteed it’s going to bog down and the American people that are sick of backroom deals are going to ask a whole lot of questions that we are going to have to answer.” King called ObamaCare a “malignant tumor that has metastasized as we speak.”

This is the third repeal bill introduced by the GOP, but the first to replace the law with different legislation. The GOP alternative would shift the costs and risks of insurance onto individuals and divide the insurance market into low-cost plans for the healthy and high-cost insurance for the sick. In fact, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the number of uninsured Americans would increase to 52 million by 2019, but deficits would decrease by $68 billion over the 2010–2019 period. The bill could slightly reduce premiums for Americans who purchase coverage independently.

Under the proposal, insurers would be allowed to sell policies from such regulatory heavy states like Virgin Islands, Guam, American Samoa and Jack Abramoff’s favorite client-the Northern Marianas. Millions of Americans would remain uninsured and continue to pay higher premiums. In fact it’s unlikely that any of the members of the Republican House Leadership would be able to find affordable insurance under their own proposal, should they chose to give up their government-sponsored plans.

Politics

Bachmann Endorses Repealing No Child Left Behind, Parts Of Medicare, And All Foreign Aid

President George W. Bush with Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN)On the day after health care reform passed the House last March, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) introduced legislation to repeal it. But Bachmann’s regressive agenda goes beyond just repealing health care reform. In an October 2009 discussion at the Heritage Foundation, Bachmann laid out her strategy for a conservative future, saying that “after we defund the left, we pass repealer bill after repealer bill after repealler bill.”

When a man named Doug called into Scott Hennen’s radio show yesterday, Bachmann gave an indication of just what she would like to repeal. Doug said that he “very rarely” hears “anybody speaking about repealing all the government programs that have no constitutional warrant” such as No Child Left Behind “and all the money that goes to foreign aid for countries like Haiti.” When he asked Bachmann if she was committed to cutting such programs, she said that she agreed with everything he said:

DOUG: My question to you though, is, has to do with the Constitution and all that I’m hearing people say from the Republican and more conservative sides, very rarely do I hear anybody speaking about repealing all the government programs that have no constitutional warrant. And, as you know better than must of us, that even under the Republicans in the last administration and beyond when we had control of both the House and the Senate there was a lot of things like Medicare B and the farm bill expansion and No Child Left Behind that there’s really no constitutional basis for and all the money that goes to foreign aid for countries like Haiti that we really don’t get any real return on.

My question to you, to hear how you would address it, is your commitment to taking Washington, what is your commitment to cutting programs in an appropriate time frame, but cutting of programs and institutions, and institutionalizing a commitment to say no new programs that the Constitution does not warrant that program. Live by the Constitution as the basis for cutting the budget.

BACHMANN: Doug, I’m in agreement with everything that you said. We wouldn’t be in the problem that we’re in today if the federal government would have followed the constrictions of the Constitution in the first place. … So yes, I am committed to getting our nation back to a constitutional form of government and doing the cutting that will be required, number one, because of the Constitution, number two, because we are looking at certain economic collapse if we fail to do that.

Listen here:

Bachmann has previously endorsed ending such long-standing programs. In February, she called for a “reorganization” of entitlements like “Social Security and Medicare and all the rest” where people “already in the system” would continue to receive benefits, but “everybody else” would be weaned off.

Transcript: Read more

Yglesias

Mark Zuckerberg’s Silver-Spoon Vanguardism

By Dara Lind

The furor over Facebook’s latest changes to its privacy settings has died down over the last week, and I’m a bit dismayed. Sure, as announced by Mark Zuckerberg on Monday (in a Washington Post op-ed clearly more aimed at the legislators who’d hauled him in to testify last week than at his site’s actual users) the settings have now been tweaked to give people “easier control over their information.” But Facebook’s gotten really good at this game by now — the company’s patron saint of customer service is apparently Lucy Van Pelt — and it’s odd that the people who were in an uproar a few weeks ago seem, for the most part, to have been pacified merely by the fact that some concessions are being made, rather than stopping to think about how long they might last.

This is silly. Zuckerberg has always been quite honest about the fact that Facebook will continue to move toward greater publicity with user data. When he’s forced to apologize, as he was in the Post this week, he doesn’t apologize for doing things with users’ information they never wanted to happen — he apologizes that “sometimes we move too fast.”

Zuckerberg seems to think that full publicity is the inevitable future. He said in January that “people have really gotten comfortable not only sharing more information and different kinds, but more openly and with more people. That social norm is just something that has evolved over time.” The problem is that actual social science research shows this isn’t true. The Pew Research Center reported this week that (in the words of Web-sociology guru danah boyd) “young adults are more actively engaged in managing what they share online than older adults.” Surely Facebook, if it wanted, could figure out that its line about a youth-driven juggernaut toward publicity isn’t borne out by the data — it’s not like it doesn’t have the user data of hundreds of millions of users at its fingertips. So what gives?

I suspect that while Zuckerberg spins publicity as a social good, he actually believes it’s a moral one. It’s a theme that’s become pretty common among execs of data-collecting, data-publicizing companies: making it so that anything anyone does can be seen by anyone they know is a way of keeping them honest. Check out this quote he gave David Kirkpatrick, author of The Facebook Effect, in an interview:

“The days of you having a different image for your work friends or co-workers and for the other people you know are probably coming to an end pretty quickly…Having two identities for yourself is an example of a lack of integrity.”

Easy for Mark Zuckerberg to say. He’s a white, cisgendered, presumably straight male who went to Exeter and Harvard and has only ever been his own boss. It’s fair to say that he’s been on the short end of a power dynamic much less frequently than the overwhelming majority of his users. The notion that “having two identities for yourself is an example of a lack of integrity” is the sentiment of someone who’s never had to code-switch, someone who’s never had to be in the closet for fear of getting kicked out of the house, someone who’s familiar with the world of white-collar “networking” in which bosses are expected to have semi-social bonds with their employees rather than the world of enforced hierarchy in which bosses are on the lookout for off-the-job indiscretions to punish or exploit. For many, many people, having more than one identity isn’t a sign of “lack of integrity” because it’s not even really a personal choice. It’s the only way to survive in a world that isn’t always perfectly willing to accept and respect them for who they are.

This is especially true of the young people who are Facebook’s core users, and who are, as boyd points out, the least likely to be aware of what Facebook is doing with their user data. And Facebook is making no efforts to educate them. It may have finally gotten the message that some people care about privacy, but it’s still assuming that those people are an educated elite. This week’s concessions are great for the people who know about them, but the people whose lives could be materially changed for the worse by having a single identity forced on them may not know.

I really want GLSEN, or another national organization that deals with queer youth issues, to start hounding Facebook loudly — not just for the most recent changes, or the ones before that, but for the insensitivity the company’s philosophy shows for anyone who has to manage their identity to get by. Zuckerberg isn’t the moral vanguard; he’s trying to force users vastly less privileged than he is to accept a set of social norms that need a whole lot of privilege to keep them afloat. And right now, right after Lucy has placed the football back on the ground and everyone’s stopped focusing on the battle that’s just ended, is the perfect time to point out that Facebook isn’t just going too fast but moving in a bad direction.

Climate Progress

Support for offshore oil drilling, dirty energy production gets dispersed by BP oil disaster

In the wake of the largest oil disaster in U.S. history, two just released polls by USA Today/Gallup show that Americans are increasingly skeptical of increased offshore drilling — and increasingly support environmental protection.  In the one month since the April 20th explosion at the Deepwater Horizon rig, support for more offshore drilling has dropped by nearly 20 percent – a big change in a short period of time.

Gallup pollster Jeffrey M. Jones notes that:

Read more

Yglesias

National Security Strategy Returns Broad War Powers to U.N.

By Satyam Khanna

Yesterday, Yglesias outlined the rules-based system illustrated by the National Security Strategy. I think it’s worth diving into how exactly Obama has done this. Most interesting is how he has aligned the use of force doctrine with international institutions. Here’s Bush:

The United States has long maintained the option of preemptive actions to counter a sufficient threat to our national security. The greater the threat, the greater is the risk of inaction— and the more compelling the case for taking anticipatory action to defend ourselves, even if uncertainty remains as to the time and place of the enemy’s attack. … the United States cannot remain idle while dangers gather.

And Obama:

When force is necessary, we will continue to do so in a way that reflects our values and strengthens our legitimacy, and we will seek broad international support, working with such institutions as NATO and the U.N. Security Council. The United States must reserve the right to act unilaterally if necessary to defend our nation and our interests, yet we will also seek to adhere to standards that govern the use of force. Doing so strengthens those who act in line with international standards, while isolating and weakening those who do not.

Under the U.N., generally, the only means in which a country can use force is in self-defense. You can see that self-defense is quite limited, as it must be “necessary” and after an “armed attack.” The UN Security Council, on the other hand, is given power to basically do whatever it wants; it can fight “threats to the peace,” however broad that may be (i.e., it can launch preventive wars, if it has the votes).

Bush’s “gathering threats” doctrine basically told the U.N. Security Council, “I want your broad and unlimited power to conduct warfare, even if I am not entitled to it under international law.” Left unanswered was why every other country in the world couldn’t follow suit, launching attacks against whomever they wanted “even if uncertainty remains as to the time and place of the enemy’s attack.” International anarchy, really.

Obama’s NSS gives that power back to the U.N. Security Council. By preserving the right of self defense but adding the big caveat that the U.S. will “adhere to standards that govern the use of force,” U.S. is returning to the widely held view that countries can only use force in immediate self defense, and that anything more must be authorized by the procedures of international institutions.

This is a major, major victory for international stability, because, at least in theory, other rogue states can no longer look to the U.S.’s example to launch preventive war; they can only use unilateral force when it is absolutely, immediately necessary. The potential ripple effect of this NSS — a more stable, predictable system governing how and when nations can conduct warfare — is something to be proud of.

Update: As Matt notes, none of this is black and white. The use of drone attacks, for instance, raises some pretty serious questions about the right of self-defense in international law.

Economy

Clinton: Considering Our Unemployment Rate, ‘The Rich Are Not Paying Their Fair Share’ In Taxes

According to a USA Today analysis that came out earlier this month, Americans paid their lowest share in taxes in nearly sixty years in 2009. At the same time, as this year’s annual Economic Report of the President pointed out, “in recent years nearly half of all income — including both wages and salaries and nonlabor income — has gone to 10 percent of families.” “The top 1 percent of families now receive nearly 25 percent of income, up from less than 10 percent in the 1970s,” the report said.

Given that income concentration has gotten more and more severe recently and that the country has to be proactive in addressing its long-term deficits, it makes sense to increase taxes on those at the top of the income scale. And evidently, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton agrees. Speaking at the Brookings Institution yesterday, Clinton said that, particularly with the high unemployment the country is facing, “the rich are not paying their fair share” in taxes:

The rich are not paying their fair share in any nation that is facing the kind of employment issues (the United States is), whether it’s individual, corporate, whatever the taxation forms are,” she said…“Brazil has the highest tax-to-GDP rate in the Western Hemisphere and guess what — it’s growing like crazy. And the rich are getting richer, but they’re pulling people out of poverty,” she said. “There is a certain formula there that used to work for us until we abandoned it, to our regret in my opinion.”

Clinton made sure to emphasize that “I’m not speaking for the administration, so I’ll preface that with a very clear caveat.”

Speaking of taxing the rich, the Senate, when it comes back from the Memorial Day recess, will contend with an extenders bill passed by the House today. One of the ways in which the bill’s spending is partially offset is by closing a tax loophole that allows wealthy hedge fund and private equity managers to pay the lower capital gains rate on the income they receive from the investors whose money they manage, instead of paying standard income tax rates.

As I’ve explained before, it’s simply unjustifiable to let this loophole stay in place, as it allows money managers who regularly make hundreds of millions annually to pay lower tax rates than people who make far less money, for no good reason. Here’s an illustration of the situation that the loophole allows:

At this point, simple revenue raisers that only affect the super-wealthy should be embraced with ease. But of course, that’s not the case, and Congress is twisting itself into knots to mitigate the tax increase, suggesting various ways to carve out certain people or subject only a portion of their income to the higher tax. But Clinton is right. The country needs to find places to raise revenues, and leaving loopholes in place that allow the ultra-wealthy to pay lower taxes than their secretaries is simply not fair.

Older

Switch to Mobile
ThinkProgress Signup Overlay Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress Skip and Continue to ThinkProgress

Sign Up