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Climate Progress

No, the BP oil disaster is not “Worse Than Katrina”

In Katrina, “at least 1,836 people lost their lives…. Total damage was $81 billion.”

HuffPost 2

I get it.  Many progressives are angry with Obama for many grievances, some of which are genuine, such as his inane seeming embrace of offshore drilling (though, ironically, he actually closed off most of the coastal US to offshore drilling).  But some progressives seem to be taking the anger a bit far.

I’ve been as outspoken as anyone on the devastation — human and environmental — that the BP oil disaster is going to cause (see “The human dimensions of oil spills” and “The BP oil disaster is a health disaster, too” and “BP’s dispersants are toxic “” but not as toxic as dispersed oil“).  And 11 people have been killed in this tragedy (so far) — by the reckless behavior of BP.

That said, I would have thought people knew what happened in Katrina.  But maybe not.  Of Katrina, Wikipedia reports:

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Yglesias

Eleven Women Wearing the Same Mama-Bear Suit

No, this is not a mama grizzly. But I promised you pandas and pandas ye shall receive. cc photo from Flickr user beautifulcataya.

No, this is not a "Mama Grizzly." But I promised you pandas and pandas ye shall receive. cc photo from Flickr user beautifulcataya.

By Dara Lind

I wasn’t persuaded by the argument Hanna Rosin put forward a couple of weeks ago that the tea-party movement was inspiring a new wave of women, particularly the working mothers Sarah Palin identified as “mama bears,” to run for office. As E.G. of the Economist’s Democracy in America blog pointed out at the time, there’s a big difference between women getting involved in electoral politics on an organizational level, as most of the women in Rosin’s article are, and women becoming candidates themselves. E.G.’s explanation:

I’m not especially impressed by the number of women who hold leadership positions in the party apparatus itself. You often see that in political parties—women are the county chair or are on the board or are holding the fundraisers. It’s largely economic. Women are more likely to be at-home parents, to have wrested some flexibility from the workplace, to have a partner who makes more money than they do. That gives them the latitude to pursue what are, for the most part, volunteer commitments. If these jobs don’t translate to more women being elected to higher office, what’s the point?

(Incidentally, I think this phenomenon’s actually a lot more pernicious than E.G. makes it out to be. Politics is a lot like, say, higher education or advertising insofar as there’s a big difference between the people in “management” roles and the people who are respected as leaders in the field. Few students who want to go into academia say “Yeah, maybe I’ll be a famous historian, but I really want to be a college dean!”; by the same token, most kids with political aspirations want to be like Barack Obama or Sarah Palin, not Tim Kaine or — heaven forbid — Michael Steele. The fact that women are getting sorted into administration instead of leadership indicates that the dynamics that keep women underrepresented in elected office and high-profile professorships are probably more complicated and harder to fix than they seem.)

When I read in Mark McKinnon’s latest GOP press release Daily Beast column that “a record number of women — and Republican women” are running in this election cycle, however, I was ready to have my mind changed. Maybe Palin’s “mama bear” meme and the tea party movement’s anti-credentialist rhetoric really are encouraging women without backgrounds in politics to jump in!

If such women do exist, though, they’re sure as heck not represented among the candidates Palin’s endorsed as “Mama Grizzlies.” Of the eleven women McKinnon profiles, six are currently holding elected office, with two others (an autism advocate and a Fox News analyst) professionally involved in national politics. If Rosin took the “mama bear” meme from Palin to describe the women she was inspiring to get into the fray, Palin takes it back to label a group of women who would still be involved in politics, and possibly even running in the races they’re in now, if neither she nor the tea-party movement had existed.

Furthermore, two of the three “Mama Grizzlies” who don’t have political backgrounds are Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman. Fiorina and Whitman both got into their races by positioning themselves as experienced former CEOs whose business and management acumen would make them levelheaded, efficient officeholders. This isn’t high on the list of Acceptable Personas for Women in Politics — a list already much shorter than its equivalent for men. (Not that I have much love in my heart for Republican CEO fetishism, but if they’re going to do it they might as well let women in on the game.) By draping the “Mama Grizzly” label over a couple of politicians who really aren’t portraying themselves as “mama bears” at all, just because they happen to have R’s by their names and two X’s in their genomes, Palin’s doing her part to keep the ways we see women in politics limited to a few gendered archetypes.

The GOP could be celebrating the fact that it’s now drawing women from a slightly broader range of backgrounds to run for office. But instead, its need to co-opt the Tea Party seems to be leading it to identify Fiorina and Whitman with a trope that women are getting into conservative politics because of their convictions, not their expertise. Meanwhile, the women who actually are getting motivated to get into conservative politics where they hadn’t been before are getting shuffled into the administration of the tea party movement, just like their counterparts have long gotten shuffled into the administration of both major parties. One paw forward, two paws back.

Yglesias

Credible commitments and the National Security Strategy

By Ryan Powers

I don’t have much to add to what other, more knowledgeable folks have already said about Obama’s new National Security Strategy. But I wanted to reiterate a point that both Yglesias and Walt made regarding the need for making U.S. foreign policy and national security commitments more credible. Perhaps the best way to do that is to quote Keohane and Nye from their 1998 Foreign Affairs article, Power and Interdepence in the Information Age. They outline what credible commitments look like when fulfilling those commitments are less about material power and more about power derived from credibility in the international system:

The low cost of transmitting data means that the ability to transmit it is much less important than it used to be, but the ability to filter information is more so. Political struggles focus less on control over the ability to transmit information than over the creation and destruction of credibility. … Much of the traditional conduct of foreign policy occurs through the exchange of promises, which can be valuable only insofar as they are credible. Hence, governments that can credibly assure potential partners that they will not act opportunistically will gain advantages over competitors whose promises are less credible. During the Cold War, for example, the United States was amore credible ally forWestern European countries than the Soviet Union because as a democracy the United States could more credibly promise not to seek to exploit or dominate its allies. Second, to borrow from capital markets at competitive interests rates requires credible information about one’s financial situation. Finally, the exercise of soft power requires credibility in order to be persuasive. For instance, as long as the United States condoned racial segregation it could not be a credible advocate of universal human rights. But in June 1998, President Clinton could preach human rights to the Chinese–and in answer to a question at Beijing University about American shortcommings, could frankly admit that the United States needed to make further progress realize its ideal of equality.

With regard to Israel’s nukes and China’s human rights, the Obama administration efforts are looking a bit like the Keohane and Nye vision in which the U.S. tries to hold all states — the U.S. included — accountable to their international commitments. But in other areas — especially with the CIA’s airstrikes in Pakistan — there seems to be a little cognitive dissonance.

Yglesias

Boehner Boasts That GOP is the ‘Party of No’ When It Comes To Gulf Oil Leak

By Satyam Khanna

Kathleen Parker interviews House Minority John Boehner, who appears to proclaim that the GOP is applying the “Party of No” strategy to the Gulf oil leak:

For Boehner, being called the “Party of No” isn’t a regrettable invective. It is a strategy aimed at highlighting the contrast between those running things and those who want to run things. That deafening silence you hear from Republicans about the gulf oil spill? All the better for Americans to hear the glubglubglub of Democrats and the administration going down the drain.

First, it wasn’t long ago that the GOP shunned the label “party of no” (instead using “party of better solutions.”)

Second, I admit that the Party of No strategy, at least at this point, is probably a political winner. But that isn’t going to be any comfort to the Louisiana fishermen, tourist industries, and the coastal communities devastated by the leak. For all the GOP bellowing about the “failure of leadership” of the Obama administration, Boehner’s statement is a reminder to the people actually affected by the oil catastrophe where the national GOP’s priorities are.

Politics

After Criticizing McCain For Changing Positions, J.D. Hayworth Is Called Out On His Own Immigration Flip-Flop

This morning, Meet the Press host David Gregory noted that guest and Arizona senatorial candidate J.D. Hayworth was once a supporter of a path to citizenship and guest worker program. Given that Hayworth has framed his campaign around attacking opponent Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for flip-flopping from a pro-immigration reform stance to a restrictionist border hawk, Gregory asked Hayworth to define what really makes him any different. Hayworth attributed his change of heart to 9/11:

GREGORY: Going back to 2001, you actually believed in a guest worker program. You believed in a path towards citizenship which you now call amnesty. Sen. McCain was a champion of comprehensive reform with Sen. Kennedy. Back during the Bush administration. [...] How does your position really differ from him?

HAYWORTH: Well it differs profoundly because what happened on 9/11 helped the scales fall from my eyes. I understand that national security is border security. And I understand that we must enforce the laws.

Watch it:

However, the anti-immigrant group, NumbersUSA tracks Hayworth’s pro-immigration votes during his term in the House of Representatives as going back to as late as 2005, when he voted against H.R. 4437, the Border Protection, Antiterrorism, and Illegal Immigration Control Act — which ultimately passed. In fact, many of Hayworth’s efforts and ire have focused more on immigration from Latin American countries than in stopping terrorists from entering the country. In 2006, Hayworth proposed a three-year ban on legal immigration from Mexico. In an op-ed published the same year, Hayworth conflated the two, stating, “How different are these radical Islamists from the Mexican politicians who push for a Mexico without borders and undermine our efforts at assimilation?”

Hayworth claims 9/11 was an eye-opener for him on immigration, but conservative guru Linda Chavez has a different take. “Hayworth, a six-term congressman, once favored a guest worker program but flip-flopped when he sensed bashing immigrants was a surer ticket to re-election,” wrote Chavez. According to Chavez, the strategy failed miserably for Hayworth, who “lost handily” to a more moderate candidate in 2006.

Climate Progress

What will it take to end our oil addiction?

Energy economics expert Craig Severance has written a sequel toPeak oil production coming sooner than expected.”


It’s time we moved on to something else, or this is going to kill us.

Not only are world oil supplies running out, but what oil is still left is proving very dirty to obtain.  We need to kick our oil addiction now if we expect to preserve any hopes of economic prosperity, or unspoiled habitats.

“This is What the End of the Oil Age Looks Like.”

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Politics

Former Bush Adviser: ‘Republicans Are So Far Out Of Step’ On ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’

Last week before the House passed an amendment to repeal “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” (DADT), the policy that bars gays and lesbians from serving in the military openly, Republicans took to the floor to rail against repeal, calling it a “social experiment,” un-patriotic and an “insult” to the military. Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) claimed that “the American people don’t want the American military to be used to advance a liberal political agenda.”

Today, on ABC’s This Week, former Bush adviser Matthew Dowd asked rhetorically, “They socialize with kids that are openly gay and all of the sudden they go in the armed services, somebody gives them a rifle and they’re not supposed to be around gay people anymore?” Then he took a shot at the GOP intransigence:

DOWD: It doesn’t make any sense. It’s long been decided in the public’s mind. I think the Republicans are so far out of step about this, where the country is…Republican office holders are so far out of step with this.

Conservative columnist George Will later said “the case is over” on DADT. Noting overwhelming public support for DADT repeal from both progressives and conservatives in America, host Jake Tapper then asked, “What’s going on with the Republicans in Congress?” Will replied, “They’re not being very intelligent.” Watch it:

Dowd and Will are right — the GOP is way out of step with Americans on DADT. A recent CNN poll found that 80 percent support allowing gays to serve openly in the military. “Support is widespread, even among Republicans. Nearly six in ten Republicans favor allowing openly gay individuals to serve in the military,” said CNN polling director Keating Holland.

Yglesias

The Strange Case of Adrian Fenty

By Matthew Yglesias

Colbert King has an informative column about the political woes of DC Mayor Adrian Fenty who seems to be in real danger of losing his re-election bid. To me the bottom line is this:

Still, it’s ironic that Fenty is viewed so harshly among blacks. He can point to improvements, and not just in the lives of gentrifiers. School performance has improved, crime is down, and public health and municipal services are better since Fenty’s election.

Fenty’s not a God or anything, and Fenty-era improvements (like the Williams-era improvements before them) are largely improvements from a very low base. But still give the man some credit! What’s a mayor supposed to do if not preside over population growth, rising test scores, falling crime rates, and improved municipal services? As Gray outlines, Fenty’s personality and style and that of several of his key appointees have pissed various people off and DC Council Chairman Vincent Gray is capitalizing on the idea that maybe we need a kinder, gentler approach to civic reform. But do we? If something’s broken, but it’s in the process of getting fixed, why fire the fixers in favor of nicer people?

Yglesias

The “General Glut”

By Matthew Yglesias

Read Brad DeLong on the correct policy response to a “general glut,” which is to say “a situation in which there is excess supply of not one or a few but all commodity goods and services.”

In an odd way, commentators on the economy have a strong bias toward talking about supply-side problems. Misguided policies that prevent the economy from operating as efficiently as it might. Policies like a “License Raj” that stifles innovation and entrepreneurship among a nation of over 1 billion in South Asia. Policies like Mao Zedong’s Five Year Plans that trampled on the aspiration of another nation of over 1 billion in East Asia. But though the policy environment is not ideal in China or in India it’s really extraordinarily better than it was in the recent past. And the physical infrastructure is much better too. And something similar, though to a lesser extent, could be said about improved governance in Indonesia and Brazil. A number of Central European countries have likewise been rescued from Communism and embedded in liberal democratic regimes. Meanwhile all around the world transmitting information is dramatically cheaper and easier than at any time in human history. And yet in newly productive China and India hundreds of millions of people continue to live lives as subsistence or near-subsistence farmers. This in a world where the total production of calories far, far, far exceeds the number of calories needed to keep five billion people alive.

To say that the world has solved its supply-side problems would be absurd. Greece really is overburdened with bureaucracy, Italian governance is a mess, we have too many useless homes in the Inland Empire and the suburbs of Las Vegas, and too much of Ireland’s GDP growth was based on a tax haven accounting gimmick. But Greece and Ireland are tiny, Italian governance has always been a mess, and the value of homes in the Inland Empire and the suburbs of Las Vegas has always been tiny relative to the vast productive capacity of the United States. To think that Greek overborrowing and over-bureaucratization could somehow maroon a global economy that’s featured the invention of the Internet and the liberalization of China and India is slightly insane. We right now have the capacity to produce more—much more—than has ever been produced before in the history of the planet. There are dozens of supply-side policies that could be improved in every country on earth, but that’s not a new fact about the world. What’s new is the lack of demand, the willingness of the key leaders in Tokyo, Frankfurt, Washington, Berlin, and now it seems London as well to tolerate stagnation and disinflation in the face of some of the most exciting fundamental new opportunities for human economic betterment ever.

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