
A friend sent me this Flickr photo and the accompanying commentary is interesting:
Partially-damaged bumper sticker on back of a 4×4 truck parked in Arlington National Cemetery during a ceremony conducted by the Sons of Confederate Veterans displaying the message ‘This flag (the CSA Battle Flag) would have never left you (POWs/MIAs) there.’ One does wonder, had the CSA managed to survive the Civil War, what its foreign and military policies would have been. Would there have been a WWII, Korea, or Vietnam War, for example?
It seems to me that Harry Turtledove’s Timeline 191 has this correct a successfully seceded CSA would have been geopolitically aligned with Britain and France in a way that would push the USA into alliance with Germany, shift the outcome of World War I, and ensure that the Bolshevik Revolution never took off.
Of course talk of alternate histories is necessarily speculative. But the key thing to keep in mind in this regard is that though the collapse of Romanov Russia was arguably driven by “the fundamentals,” the specific story of the Bolshevik takeover is quite weird and highly sensitive to the way the first World War played out. It seems like minor changes to the geopolitical situation—to say nothing of major ones like the breakup of the United States fifty years earlier—would have led to totally different outcomes.
Also interesting, of course, is the possible consequences for US domestic politics. Turtledove posits that the rump USA would feature a more “European” style of politics, with the GOP collapsing in the wake of military defeat and a Socialist Party facing off against a conservative Democratic Party. I think that may be mistaken—the relevant precedent is probably Canadian politics, somewhat more left-wing than what you see in the U.S. and featuring a meaningful parliamentary presence for the NDP, but still not a Socialist Party as a viable party of government.