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Economy

Pelosi To The Senate: ‘Show Us The Jobs!’

Senate negotiations over the upper chamber’s version of a tax extenders bill — which extends both unemployment benefits and several popular tax credits — are now in their third week, with a resolution seemingly not much closer than it was at the beginning of the process. Senate Democrats are now on their third version of the legislation, with each of the previous two unable to muster enough votes to invoke cloture.

Of course, the holdouts want to see cuts in the bill’s overall cost before giving it their approval. “The thing that I’m concerned about is the deficit,” said Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT). “We’ve come to a time when we’ve just gotta keep saying no, and as a result we passed the so-called doc-fix and it was paid for.”

But Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi may hold the Senate passed doc fix — which prevents a cut in Medicare reimbursements to doctors — hostage until the Senate acts on job-creation legislation:

“I see no reason to pass this inadequate bill until we see jobs legislation coming out of the Senate,” she said. “House Democrats are saying to Republicans in the Senate: Show us the jobs!

As Congressional Quarterly’s Emily Ethridge put it, “frustration over the Senate’s inaction is increasing among House Democrats, who have taken several politically difficult votes only to see the legislation languish in the other chamber.” There’s good reason for this frustration, as the deficit hysteria gripping the Senate is not only leaving the House hanging, but is not doing any good for the economy.

When faced with legislation that will create and save jobs by boosting demand in the economy, it’s seemingly conventional wisdom in the Senate that the right thing for a “moderate” member to do is demand that the bill be cut somewhere. This is the same dynamic that ultimately won the day during debate over the economic recovery act, when Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Susan Collins (R-ME), among others, simply asked that the overall price of the bill come down, somehow.

In this instance, it seems that aid to states is going to be the victim, even though such aid is one of the most stimulative steps that the federal government can take (though it isn’t at stimulative as extending unemployment benefits, which the Senate also can’t seem to do).

As Matt Yglesias put it, “skimping on short-term stimulus doesn’t reduce the growth rate of health costs nor does it slow the aging of the population, so you’re not achieving anything on long-term fiscal challenges.” However, short-term deficit spending can put people back to work, which leads to tax revenue for the Treasury, more demand, and ultimately a stronger economic recovery. So Pelosi is right to be frustrated and to take steps to force action on the part of the Senate.

Politics

King Touts Project Funded By The Stimulus Package That He Opposed

Yesterday, Rep. Steve King (R-IA) attended the ground-breaking of a transportation project in Lytton, IA, a small town in his district. In a glowing press release on his website, he praised the project:

“Today we celebrate a major milestone in the effort to complete a four-lane U.S. Highway 20 from Sioux City all the way to Dubuque and on to Chicago,” said King. “I supported this project before I was elected to the Iowa Senate and made it my number one transportation priority as a Member of Congress. In working with our state’s senators and House delegation, the Four-Lane Highway 20 Association, and local communities, I have networked the effort to secure millions in federal funds to help bring this project to western Iowa. I will continue to do all I can to keep it moving until the day we cut the ribbon on the final mile of four-lane Highway 20.”

While King happily touts his role in the procurement of funds for U.S. 20′s expansion, he neglects to mention that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (commonly referred to as the stimulus package) — a bill that he heavily criticized and voted against — actually provides a majority of the funds for the project. Although King also secured federal funds for this project through the Omnibus Appropriations Act of 2009, the congressman again overlooks his unequivocal opposition to the bill, which he previously described as a part of the “ongoing fiscal train wreck in Washington.”

Following the long tradition of Republican stimulus hypocrites before him, King fails to acknowledge the benefits of the stimulus to his state. In Iowa alone, nearly 9,000 jobs have been created as a result of stimulus dollars. Moreover, according to the Congressional Budget Office, the Recovery act has already saved or created 2.8 million jobs, an estimated 3.7 million by September.

Nina Bhattacharya

Politics

Florida Encourages Saltwater Fishing As Oil Looms Off Panama City

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission continues to keep state waters open to fishing despite contamination by the BP oil disaster, the Wonk Room has learned. On June 16, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) extended the federal fisheries closure to the federal waters seven miles off Panama City Beach. Meanwhile, the state encouraged fishing with the announcement that “all Florida residents and visitors are invited to fish statewide for saltwater species without a license during the upcoming Father’s Day weekend, June 19-20.” On June 19, tarballs began washing up on Panama City Beach. On June 20, the visible oil slick spread to one mile of the Panama City coast, well within the seven-mile state boundary, but the state did not put the waters off limits to fishing:


Panama City Slick
Satellite image of oil slick one mile off Panama City, FL, June 20, 2010, from University of Miami.

Gov. Charlie Crist’s (I-FL) office warned residents on June 21 that “the Florida Panhandle will continue to be threatened by shoreline contacts as far east as Panama City through Monday,” but the State Fish & Wildlife Commission kept the waters open, just off the impacted shore. Other than the “partial fishing closure in Escambia County” the commission belatedly imposed, the agency’s official position is that “the rest of Florida’s recreational and commercial fisheries have not been directly affected by the oil spill.”

Cross-posted on the Wonk Room.

Climate Progress

Florida Encourages Saltwater Fishing As Oil Looms Off Panama City

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission continues to keep state waters open to fishing despite contamination by the BP oil disaster, the Wonk Room has learned. On June 16, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) extended the federal fisheries closure to the federal waters seven miles off Panama City Beach. Meanwhile, the state encouraged fishing with the announcement that “all Florida residents and visitors are invited to fish statewide for saltwater species without a license during the upcoming Father’s Day weekend, June 19-20.” On June 19, tarballs began washing up on Panama City Beach. On June 20, the visible oil slick spread to one mile of the Panama City coast, well within the seven-mile state boundary, but the state did not put the waters off limits to fishing:


Panama City Slick
Satellite image of oil slick one mile off Panama City, FL, June 20, 2010, from University of Miami.

Gov. Charlie Crist’s (I-FL) office warned residents on June 21 that “the Florida Panhandle will continue to be threatened by shoreline contacts as far east as Panama City through Monday,” but the State Fish & Wildlife Commission kept the waters open, just off the impacted shore. Other than the “partial fishing closure in Escambia County” the commission belatedly imposed, the agency’s official position is that “the rest of Florida’s recreational and commercial fisheries have not been directly affected by the oil spill.”

Update

In an email to the Wonk Room, Wendy Dial, community relations specialist for the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission, explains the agency’s decisions:

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission’s (FWC) policy is to evaluate whether state waters should be closed after analyzing the latest over-flight maps with geospatially referenced estimates of oil coverage in a particular area. If it is determined that visible oil covers a significant portion of the area, a closure would be considered, and the FWC would consult with DEP, the Department of Health and other agencies before taking action. Up to now, the 23-mile Escambia county closure is the only area where this determination has been made.

Yglesias

Endgame

Into the blue flame:

— The real scandal is that General McChrystal’s favorite beer is Bud Light Lime. Has he never tried regular Bud? Normal Bud Light?

— Third newspaper poll in a row shows rising approval ratings for Barack Obama but fails to mention it.

— I’m guessing Labour is now glad to be in opposition.

— Should birth control pills be available over the counter? Makes sense to me at first glance.

— The really real scandal is that the McChrystal/Obama plan for Afghanistan doesn’t seem to be working.

Debating the 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

More New Pornographers: “Sing Me Spanish Techno”.

Health

Sebelius Says Cost Of Patients’ Bill Of Rights Should Have Small Impact On Premiums

sebeliuslookingright6Earlier today, I expressed concern that the new ‘Patient Bill of Rights’ regulations would give insurers an excuse to raise premiums while leaving the federal government relatively powerless to rein in excessive and unreasonable increases. But this afternoon, during a conference call with reporters, HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius stressed that the added cost of the new regulations would only amount to “less than 1%” in added costs:

SEBELIUS: We anticipate that the cumulative impact is likely to be less than 1%. The actuarial studies that our folks have asked to engage in, looking at this indicates that while there are clearly some cases where there are some expenses, relatively few and far in between given the number of people impacted and effected. Again, part of the meeting today was to call on insurance companies to use their market strategies to put people in larger pools to make sure that folks particularly in the individual and small pool markets weren’t isolated and separated as the sickest possible population.

During his remarks, President Obama conceded that while “there are genuine cost-drivers that are not caused by insurance companies,” “we’ve got to make sure that this new law is not being used as an excuse to simply drive up costs.” “None of this is designed to deprive insurance companies of fair rates. And as I mentioned when we were meeting with the CEOs, there are a lot of cost-drivers other than those that are within insurance companies’ control,” he said.

This is true enough, but many insurers simply pass overinflated costs to consumers, without negotiating for better rates, and some are already blaming the health law for premium increases. For instance, in March, CIGNA CEO David Cordani told Neil Cavuto that the law will lead to additional increases and Aetna CEO Ron Williams argued that the new taxes — which don’t kick in until 2014will lead to immediate premium hikes. As Sebelius explained on the call, this kind of response is fairly typical:

SEBELIUS: There is no question that we are seeing rate increases that so far exceed the costs of medical inflation in some instances that they’re difficult to justify….In my former insurance commissioner days [I] am very familiar with companies alleging costs well in access of what they ended up being every single mandate passed in my experience at the legislative level was always estimated to be well more costly than tended to be the reality. When we passed mental health parity there were assertions that somehow rates would have to go 20% to cover this. This isn’t new, this tension and dynamic. The new is we are actually calling on insurance commissioners to step up to actually conduct more rigorous rate reviews.

History suggests that insurance commissioners will in fact have to remain vigilante in challenging and reviewing proposed rates. If they don’t, I suspect rates will continue to increase well beyond medical inflation and the “estimated cumulative effect.”

Politics

Oil And Gas Industry-Funded GOP Rep Can’t Give Safety Assurances For Lifting Drilling Moratorium

Today, a federal district court judge with financial investments in the oil industry ruled against the Obama administration’s 6-month moratorium on deepwater offshore drilling, which the President issued in the wake BP’s Gulf oil spill to ensure that future drilling is safe and environmentally sound. The White House has said it will appeal the decision.

Last week, Rep. Pete Olson (R-TX) decided to take the legislative route, introducing a bill in the House to lift the moratorium, saying it “is turning a tragedy into a nightmare.” He called it a “job-killing policy” because it will cause, he said, “other oil rich nations to move their rig operations overseas.” But last night on Fox News, when host Greta Van Susteren asked Olson if he could guarantee that the rigs effected by the moratorium have been “inspected” and are “safe,” Olson dodged, citing the “history of drilling” and the economy:

VAN SUSTEREN: Do you have any way of knowing that, for instance, the blow-out preventers work on these other 33 rigs, any way to guarantee that they have been, you know, inspected, that they’ve got all the sort of redundancy that’s necessary to make — to make sure they’re safe?

OLSON: Yes, ma’am. I would tell people look at the history of drilling in the gulf. We’ve been drilling there for over 50 years, 20 years in the deep water, and this is the first major accident we’ve had. [...]

VAN SUSTEREN: I think — it’s not history I’m looking for, it’s more assurances. [...]

OLSON: Yes, ma’am. And the administration, our government, clearly had no plan to do this. But again, this moratorium extends — again, it turns an economic challenge into an economic disaster.

Watch it:

But offshore oil drilling isn’t exactly 100 percent “safe,” nor will it ever be. And Olson is wrong about drilling “history.” Failures of blowout preventers and actual blowouts are fairly common. The largest oil spill in history (before BP’s) also occurred in the Gulf of Mexico, on an exploratory rig blowout.

It’s unclear why Olson ignores or seems to be unaware of these facts. Perhaps it could be because the Texas Republican’s biggest contributor is the oil and gas industry. In the two years he has been in Congress, Olson has collected $216,000 from oil and gas companies and in the current election cycle, polluter companies have given the most to Olson, nearly doubling the next highest industry contributor.

Yglesias

The Success of KIPP Schools

By Ryan McNeely

Mathematica Policy Research just released a preliminary report of their large, multi-year study of the effectiveness of KIPP charter schools on increasing educational attainment.  Their finding: “For the vast majority of KIPP schools studied, impacts on students’ state assessment scores in mathematics and reading are positive, statistically significant, and educationally substantial.” Further, “estimated impacts are frequently large enough to substantially reduce race- and income-based achievement gaps within three years of entering KIPP.” Right now, only data related to test scores is available, but the results are striking:

kipp

The results for reading are equally impressive. But what about the fact that the study only looked at 22 schools? A nice thing about using propensity score matching as part of a quasi-experimental design is that there are a lot of upfront costs associated with crafting the comparison model, but once the investment is made it can be easily scaled up. Rather than do so immediately, however, the evaluators are going to take advantage of the fact that they can conduct a true randomized experiment — something that is normally difficult to do — using an existing KIPP lottery system. Then, they can use the more robust method to confirm that their model is accurate. Or as the report states, “If the nonexperimental impact estimates match the experimental impact estimates, we will have evidence that the nonexperimental design can produce unbiased impact estimates.” An interim report is due in mid-2012 with the final report due in 2014 after four years of follow-up.

A final note: since all program evaluations require making assumptions that may or may not be valid, it’s important to see in which direction the results would be biased if the assumptions did not hold. Mathematica did this correctly, by basically making assumptions that would tend to understate the positive effects of KIPP schooling. As one example, KIPP schools disproportionally hold students back if they’re not ready to advance to the next grade, which complicates comparison between KIPP and non-KIPP schools across grade levels. The evaluators handled this by assuming “that each retained student does neither better nor worse than before retention. If KIPP in fact has a positive impact on the achievement of grade repeaters, this would cause us to underestimate KIPP’s impact.” This is the sign of an honest evaluation.

Justice

Sick Leave And LGBT Equality

Tomorrow, the Labor Department will issue a new ruling clarifying that the Family and Medical Leave Act (FMLA) allows “individuals who are the non-legal, non biological parents of their same-sex partner’s children” to take 12 weeks of unpaid leave to take care of a sick child. The move is one in a longer list of changes that will explicitly extend benefits to gays and lesbian Americans, but some gay activists have dismissed the advances as inadequate. The AP ran a story titled, ‘Obama inches toward gay agenda,’ describing the change as “[t]he little things that the Beltway crowd pays attention to.”

But as Pat Garofalo explains, the problem isn’t that guaranteed unpaid sick leave is inadequate because it’s not ENDA or DADT. It’s inadequate because it only really benefits those who can afford to take days off without being paid for them:

Lack of paid leave not only means sick employees coming in to work, but sick children being sent to school by parents who can’t afford to take time off to care for them. In fact, according to a new survey conducted by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago “nearly twice as many workers without paid sick days (24 percent) have sent a sick child to school or daycare than workers with paid sick days (14 percent).” 16 percent of those polled “say they have lost a job for taking time off from work to care for a sick child or family member, or to cope with their own illness.”

“This new survey shows conclusively that our nation is paying a high price for not allowing workers to earn paid sick days,” said Deborah Leff, president of the Public Welfare Foundation. “It demonstrates that not having paid sick days drives up the costs of health care and causes more people to go to work sick, creating public health risks for everyone.” In order to rectify this situation, Congress could pass the Healthy Families Act, which would guarantee seven paid sick days to all employees at firms with more than 15 employees, which could also be used to care for sick children or family members.

The real benefits of sick leave won’t be felt by everyone until this country joins every other industrialized nation and mandates paid sick leave. Unfortunately, by framing this exclusively as an LGBT equality issue, and viewing it through the prism of the broader LGBT ‘agenda,’ we avoid that important conversation.

Climate Progress

Obama approval holds steady despite BP spill. Why?

Gallup oil

This is Gallup’s tracking poll since January.  Pretty hard to discern any meaningful trend.  You certainly would be hard pressed to pick out any evidence of a BP-disaster effect.

Nate Silver notes that even on the narrower question of Obama’s handling of the disaster — [I only used "spill" in the headline this one time so it would fit on one line] — Obama’s numbers are flat if not slightly rebounding:

Read more

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