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Yglesias

Illegal Driving

Some excellent points from Tim Lee:

Speeding is illegal. You can get fined for it, and if you do it fast enough and often enough you can lose your license and even go to jail. Moreover, speeding kills.

Yet we don’t have a national debate about “illegal driving.” No one frets that peoples tendency to drive over the speed limit threatens the rule of law. People would think you were crazy if you said: “I don’t have a problem with driving, but it needs to be done legally.” Nobody complains that tolerating people who go 65 in a 55 zone is unfair to other drivers who are driving exactly 55. Bill O’Reilly and Lou Dobbs doesn’t do segments about “illegals” (that is, people who engage in “illegal driving”) and what a menace to society they are.

In some ways the analogy is inexact, but what I think is really important here is that we don’t have the rhetoric of “illegals” to refer to people who drive illegally fast, or to jaywalkers, or to people who commit tons of other regulatory violations. But we do have this incredibly dehumanizing discourse around people who’ve violated the immigration laws. And I think the way in which the analogy is relevant is that if someone were to propose changing the way we handle speed limit violations, people would recognize (a) that “illegal drivers” are human beings whose interests count in the equation and (b) that attempting to construct perfectly enforced speeding laws is almost certainly counterproductive.

Yglesias

Again and Again

Binyamin Applebaum notes that with the fury of financial regulation overhaul lobbying now complete in Congress, it’s time for everyone to refight many of the same battles again as regulators begin to draft more specific rules:

preparing for the next battle: influencing the creation of several hundred new rules and regulations.

The bill, completed early Friday and expected to come up for a final vote this week, is basically a 2,000-page missive to federal agencies, instructing regulators to address subjects ranging from derivatives trading to document retention. But it is notably short on specifics, giving regulators significant power to determine its impact — and giving partisans on both sides a second chance to influence the outcome.

To some of its critics, the Obama administration is full of socialists. To other critics, it’s full of patsies for Wall Street. But in terms of its approach to financial regulation, what’s really striking about the team’s approach is the degree to which it reflects the views of bank regulators who believe that given the appropriate tools they have it within their power to prevent these disasters. Consequently, a lot of the action to determine whether this thing works will end up playing out among the regulatory agencies as they start filling out the details.

Politics

BP Slick Reached Mississippi While Haley Barbour Went Fundraising In Washington

June 26 spill
June 26 NASA satellite imagery shows long ribbons of oil have entered the Mississippi Sound.

As significant amounts of oil from the BP disaster moved past Mississippi’s barrier islands this week, Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS) partied in Washington DC to raise money for Republicans. On Wednesday, boats were skimming oil near the Petit Bois Island at the Mississippi-Alabama border. Barbour decided to attend to his duties as a political fundraiser:

Barbour on Thursday held Washington fund-raisers for the Republican Governors Association, which he heads, and for one of his political action committees, which is raising money for GOP congressional candidates. His fund-raising is receiving some national media attention and feuling speculation that he is already gearing up for a run for president in 2012.

“The most important thing right now is the 2010 elections,” Barbour told reporters.

Continuing his record of dismissing the magnitude of the BP disaster, Barbour said on Friday after he returned to Mississippi that major slicks miles long within the Mississippi Sound “shouldn’t be a cause for alarm.” By Saturday, there were “long, wide ribbons of orange-colored oil for as far as the eye could see and acres of both heavy and light sheen moving into the Sound between the barrier islands.”

The system for responding to a major oil spill depends on coordination between the federal government, the responsible oil company, and the state government. Out of the 6,000 National Guard troops President Obama has authorized for response in Mississippi, Haley Barbour has mobilized only 58. However, he has declared today to be a Day of Prayer “to remember the Mississippi Gulf Coast.”

Yglesias

People Want to Tax The Rich

There’s no form of tax increase or spending reduction that has a really enormous amount of public support behind it, but as both public opinion polling and even Pete Peterson’s “America Speaks” event demonstrate, far and away the most popular method available for reducing the long-term fiscal deficit is higher taxes on rich people. I’m much friendlier to the idea of broader-based tax increases than is the average American, but it’s really striking the extent to which members of the political elite insist on ignoring the strong public consensus behind higher taxes on the rich in their discussion of politically feasible policy options.

Yglesias

A Real Solution to Polarization

As I mentioned briefly, I met Krist Novoselic on Friday, and though I’m a big Nirvana fan the actual subject was his work as chairman of Fair Vote, an excellent organization pushing a variety of worthy reforms to the American electoral system.

One of the things we talked about was the remarkable fact that for all the bellyaching in Washington about the related topics of gerrymandering and polarization, elites seem totally blind to the ways in which shifting to a more proportional system could ameliorate these problems. When Americans hear “proportional” they often immediately leap to imagining something like a nationwide closed party list system, but a much more realistic and practical solution would be to have multiple member congressional districts with single transferrable vote.

What does that mean and what does it have to do with polarization?

Well, take New York City. Instead of carving the city up into 13 or 14 different districts with members elected by plurality, all of them won by Democrats, the whole city could vote proportionally for a slate of 13-14 members of congress, and several of them would wind up being Republicans with the exact number depending on political fortunes. This would reduce what I think bothers people about polarization in congress in at least two ways. One is that though on many issues the NYC Republicans and NYC Democrats would fiercely disagree, on a bunch of other issues that have substantial regional or urban/non-urban elements to them the NYC bloc would be collaborating along with other bipartisan congressional blocks against other bipartisan congressional blocks. The other is that the balance of power in congress wouldn’t be determined by a relatively small number of “swing districts.” In any given election, Democrats and Republicans alike would have plausible pickup opportunities all across the country—even in New York City—meaning that it would make sense for the GOP to always at least think about trying to answer the concerns of American cities.

Then on the flipside, if Nebraska elected its three-member congressional delegation in a proportional manner you wouldn’t have the scenario where 41 percent of Nebraskans vote for Barack Obama but 100 percent of them are represented in the House by conservative Republicans. All regions of the country would have a measure of bipartisan representation, and both parties would have substantial blocs of members to advocate for the interests of different kinds of places.

Politics

At Oil Palace in Texas, Palin Pushes ‘Drill, Baby, Drill,’ Says Obama Wants To Rule By ‘Presidential Fiats’

In the wake of the oil spill disaster in the Gulf, many House Republicans backed away from former Alaska governor Sarah Palin’s infamous 2008 campaign slogan “drill, baby, drill” in conversations with ThinkProgress. In a Facebook posting earlier this month, Palin herself declared that the United States “must” “drill, baby, drill,” but “the public will not trust” oil companies to do so “unless government appropriately regulates oil developments and holds oil executives accountable.”

Last night, at the Oil Palace in East Texas, Palin invoked the mantra again, saying, “I chant, ‘drill, baby, drill,’ because it will help make the country energy independent.” NBC affiliate KETK in Tyler, Texas aired an extended excerpt of Palin’s speech this morning, including her claim that if America doesn’t “drill, baby, drill,” soon we’re “going to be bowing” to “the foreign countries” that “drill for us”:

PALIN: When I was governor, I had to file an amicus brief against Exxon, in favor of the plaintiffs to get Exxon to finally pay up what they owed Alaskan victims. And thousands of Alaskans in those 20 years, the fishermen, they died. A whole other generation now that finally received some compensation. So, how dare BP put the Gulf victims through such a thing. We have to make sure that BP will not do this. Will not do what Exxon did to Alaskans all those years ago. But see, we’ve learned a lot since then.

We’ve also learned more about government’s proper role and not violating the separation of powers, which I think Obama is kind of flirting with also, some government overreach. We are a rule of laws, not a rule of presidential fiats that I think President Obama would rather have sometimes, it seems. So, anyone who wants to chastise anyone for believing in ‘drill, baby, drill,’ should keep this in mind. I first said those three little words when I was running for the number two job in our country and if I had won, my duty in the White House would have been to help our country towards becoming more energy independent because I understand why we need to be.

Watch it:

Palin is trying to have it both ways when she correctly says “we have to make sure that BP” will “pay up what they owe” to victims of the oil spill, but then asserts that President Obama is “kind of flirting with also, some government overreach.” Earlier this month, Obama got BP to agree to set up a $20 billion escrow fund that “will provide substantial assurance that the claims people and businesses have will be honored” by BP. Though Palin claims she to want guarantee that BP compensates victims, she recently bashed the escrow fund as “an unconstitutional power grab.” In her tweet attacking the fund, Palin encouraged her followers to read a column by Thomas Sowell that compares Obama to Hitler for setting up the fund.

Politics

McCain Disagrees With Gov. Jan Brewer: Most Undocumented Immigrants Are Not ‘Drug Mules’

Last week, ThinkProgress reported that, during a recent primary debate, Gov. Jan Brewer (R-AZ) falsely claimed that the “majority” of undocumented immigrants who come to the U.S. are “coming here and they’re bringing drugs” and “doing drop houses and they’re extorting people and they’re terrorizing the families.” On Meet the Press today, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) admitted to David Gregory that he does not agree with Brewer’s fallacious comments, but refused to address whether such gross exaggerations “make the debate harder”:

GREGORY: Do you agree with the Governor of Arizona that most people who come across the border are actually drug mules?

MCCAIN: No. I think that there’s a large number. I think that she’s right that drug cartel movement has drastically increased and the violence — 23,000 Mexicans have been killed in the last three years in Mexico!

GREGORY: Do those kind of comments make the debate harder, make it a hotter debate?

MCCAIN: I think the Governor of Arizona has done a good job in this whole debate. I may not agree with one sentence that she uses, but she’s standing up for Arizona. And I think the people of my state deserve a better environment than the one they are getting from the federal government now.

Watch it:

Perhaps the reason McCain refused to say whether Brewer’s inaccurate generalizations contribute to a toxic environment of misinformation is because he too has been misleading the public with his fear-mongering. McCain once described undocumented immigrants as “God’s children” and reminded people that “the overwhelming majority of people who come to this country are honest, god-fearing, hard-working people.” Now, when discussing immigration, McCain prefers to bring up the “murderous, barbaric behavior” of drug cartels and the appalling death toll in Mexico. However, what he and his colleagues don’t tell voters is that, despite violence in Mexico, the U.S. side of the border is safer than it’s been in years.

Recently released FBI crime statistics show that, despite an increase in illegal immigration, crime has been dropping in Arizona for years. Not only is violent crime declining in Arizona, immigrants themselves are actually less likely to commit crimes and more likely to contribute to the safety of communities they live in. A study of more than 50,000 U.S. cities revealed that “the cities that experience the greatest growth in immigration were the same one that were experiencing the greatest declines in violent crime.”

During his interview with Gregory, McCain also insisted that Congress can not pass immigration reform until the border is secure. Just a few years ago, McCain called an “enforcement-first” strategy an “ineffective and ill-advised approach” and insisted that “the only way to truly secure our border and protect our Nation is through the enactment of comprehensive immigration reform.”

Climate Progress

When things were rotten: Arctic sees record sea ice shrinkage, headed toward record low volume

On a streetcar named denial, Watts and Goddard assert: “Arctic Basin ice generally looks healthier than 20 years ago.”

Must-see video here for ice junkies, background here:  “Arctic Ocean is full of rotten ice.”

Piomas 6-10

“Anomalies for each day are calculated relative to the average over the 1979 -2009 period for that day to remove the annual cycle.”  [And yes, "anomaly" is a poor word choice for a long-term trend driven by human emissions.]

Back in mid-May, I argued the Arctic is poised to see record low sea ice volume this year.  Since then, volume has plummeted some 3000 km3 (relative to its recent historical average) to “19,000 km3, the lowest May volume over the 1979-2010 period, 42% below the 1979 maximum and 32% below the 1979-2009 May average,” according to the Polar Science Center, which has the best Arctic ice volume model around.

If I’m reading their historical average right, we’re probably below 10,000 km3 now.  The September minimum record was set 9 months ago, at 5,800 km3.

Read more

Yglesias

Transit and Density

From an LA Times writeup of a light rail extension into the San Gabriel Valley that’s just getting under way:

Real estate developers and politicians are hoping the line will pave the way for some new residential and commercial developments in the cities.

Much of their enthusiasm centers around so-called “Transit-Oriented Developments” — the idea that local economies thrive when they offer public transportation, housing, and retail in the same space. Some of these developments would be denser than what the suburban cities are typically used to.

“There’s something about rail that creates an anchor for economic development,” said Michael Cano, transportation deputy to Los Angeles County Supervisor and MTA board member Michael Antonovich.

I don’t know the details of these plans, but I certainly hope that when they say “some” of the transit-oriented development will be denser than non-TOD neighborhoods in the city that they mean “almost all.” After all, the main “something” about rail that “creates an anchor for economic development” is the fact that rail, being a highly space-efficient means of moving people, tends to facilitate dense development. I think rail transit offers a lot of benefits and it makes sense for many municipalities to invest in it, but these benefits don’t arise through magic, they’re mainly realized by zoning for denser development.

Security

CIA Chief Leon Panetta: In Afghanistan, U.S. Has Committed 1,000 Troops Per Each Al Qaeda Terrorist

This week, in announcing his choice of Gen. David Petraeus to replace Gen. Stanley McChrystal to lead the U.S. war in Afghanistan, President Obama emphasized, “this is a change in personnel but it is not a change in policy.” A key tenet of this policy, as Obama has reiterated frequently, is to “disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda.”

The U.S. has committed nearly 100,000 troops to the mission in Afghanistan. ABC This Week host Jake Tapper asked CIA Director Leon Panetta how big is the al Qaeda threat that the soldiers are combating:

TAPPER: How many Al Qaeda, do you think, are in Afghanistan?

PANETTA: I think the estimate on the number of Al Qaeda is actually relatively small. I think at most, we’re looking at 50 to 100, maybe less. It’s in that vicinity. There’s no question that the main location of Al Qaeda is in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

The 100,000 U.S. forces that have been tasked to dismantle the 100 or so al Qaeda members — a ratio of 1000:1 — is complicated by the fact that we are also engaged in operations going after the Taliban leadership. Panetta said the Taliban insurgency is “engaged in greater violence right now” than when Obama took office. “They’re doing more on IED’s. They’re going after our troops. There’s no question about that. In some ways, they are stronger, but in some ways, they are weaker as well.”

Addressing whether the U.S. is pursuing the right strategy, CIA Director Leon Panetta meekly responded, “We think so.” Panetta added that the U.S. is making progress in Afghanistan. “It’s harder, it’s slower than I think anyone anticipated.”

Winning in Afghanistan is having a country that is stable enough to ensure that there is no safehaven for al Qaeda or for a militant Taliban that welcomes al Qaeda,” Panetta told Tapper. “That’s really the measure of success for the United States.” Watch it:


Update

Marcy Wheeler adds some figures: “1,000 US troops per al Qaeda member, at a cost of $1 million each. That’s $1 billion a year we spend for each al Qaeda member to fight our war in Afghanistan.”

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