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Yglesias

Singh vs Dirty Energy Subsidies

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Last December I took note of Steve Coll’s argument that Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is the great underrated statesman of our time. If he manages to hold firm in his campaign against dirty energy subsidies that’ll be another chapter in building the case:

Indian cities limped back to life after a nationwide strike over fuel prices grounded flights, shut offices and triggered sporadic violence, forcing the government to defend cuts to subsidies that had protected the poor.

The main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party and communist parties, which independently called nationwide 12-hour stoppages until 6 p.m., said the stoppage has been a success as truckers, shopkeepers and government workers backed them to protest Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s June 25 decision to stop subsidizing gasoline and diesel, a move to reduce spending that spurred the budget deficit to a 16-year high.

Subsidies of this sort are all-too-common around the world but especially in developing nations. And while it’s true that it’s relatively more difficult for poor people to adapt to any kind of change, that’s simply because everything is harder for the poor. The distributive impact of gasoline subsidies in a country like India where most people are too poor to afford a car is clearly regressive. And in any country at any state of development you could always cancel costly dirty energy subsidies and plow some of the savings into targeted financial assistance for poor people. In the long run, subsidizing pollution only hurts economic growth while damaging air quality and public health.

Climate Progress

We’re having a heat wave. New daily high temperature records beat new cold records by nearly 5 to 1 in June

How hot is it? So hot that June “breaks the record for the warmest average temperature observed for any calendar month in Miami”

We’re getting a dramatic taste of the kind of weather we are on course to bequeath to our grandchildren,” says Tom Peterson, Chief Scientist for NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center.

An “excessive heat warning” has been issued this week for parts of the East Coast, home of the status quo media, so please send me examples of coverage — good or bad. Also, drink plenty of fluids and stay cool!

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I got a call last week from a Florida reporter.  Did I know that it was so hot that Miami set the all-time monthly temperature record in June?  Was all the strange weather part of some longer-term pattern?

No and yes. He directed me to the National Weather Service summary for Miami here.  And I pointed out to him that NASA reported that globally it was easily the hottest spring “” and Jan-May “” in the temperature record (and NOAA, too).

Record-smashing temps are precisely what scientists have been predicting.  As the UK’s Royal Society and Met Office (the UK’s National Weather Service [i.e. meteorological office], within the Ministry of Defence) said in their must-read statement on the connection between global warming and extreme weather:
Read more

Yglesias

Owners Who Complain About High Salaries Handing Out Ridiculous Deals

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The knowledge that we’ll likely be facing an NBA lockout soon premised on the idea that the league’s owners can’t afford to keep paying their players so much makes it especially hard to look at some of the crazy deals that those very same owners hand out voluntarity. To wit, the Atlanta Hawks want to pay Joe Johnson $119 million over six years.

Johnson is a prototypical overrated NBA player. A perimeter scorer on a middling team who takes a lot of shots and therefore scores a lot without being notably efficient at it or notable good at any other aspect of the game. He’s not a bad player. In fact, he’s a good one. But he’s not great. And at his current age, the odds are that Atlanta is purchasing a declining asset. What’s odder is that nobody seems to deny this. Nobody thinks Johnson is going to improve. Nobody thinks Johnson is one of the top ten players in the game. Nobody thinks “Joe Johnson plus guys who are worse than Joe Johnson” sounds like a recipe for a championship.

Yglesias

Cutbacks

This report from Pew on how the recession has changed life in America has a bunch of interesting data. This survey question capturing the broader impact of the recession on the labor market is definitely worth pondering:

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I recall having read that during the Great Depression of the 1930s, those workers who didn’t lose their jobs actually wound up experiencing rising living standards thanks to price deflation. Here we seem to see a labor market that, for better or for worse, is more capable of spreading the pain and inflicting damage on the economic interests of the employed.

Yglesias

Earmark Ban Proves Full of Loopholes

Congress has acted to ban “earmarks” designed to benefit for-profit companies, but as Eric Lipton and Ron Nixon report for the NYT this ban turns out to be relatively easy to evade.

Which I think only returns us to the point that this is a somewhat silly area for political reformers to emphasize. If you have geographically based constituencies each represented by a single member, and a system of entrepreneurial politicians who are supposed to raise their own money, and you have relatively weak party discipline, then you’re going to have members of congress acting in support of idiosyncratic local interests. That’s baked into the cake of the system. Indeed, it’s the main thing people like about the political system—members of congress are highly responsive to local interests. Personally, I think that’s overrated and America would be better served by more systemic reform of how congress works. But earmarks are just a very small and relatively benign symptom of a system of decentralized political authority.

Climate Progress

Dutch assessment of IPCC: “Overall the summary conclusions are considered well founded and none were found to contain any significant errors.”

Dutch foresee much higher sea-level-rise risk than IPCC — and urge IPCC to “to pay attention to ‘worst-case scenarios’. “

Our findings do not contradict the main conclusions of the IPCC on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability related to climate change. There is ample observational evidence of natural systems being influenced by climate change on regional levels. The negative impacts under unmitigated climate change in the future pose substantial risks to most parts of the world, with risks increasing at higher global average temperatures.

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) examined the Regional Chapters in the Working Group II portion of the 2007 Fourth Assessment.  Full 100 page report is here; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  comment is here.

Overall, as the BBC headline makes clear, “Dutch review backs UN climate science report.”  So, naturally, the Wall Street Journal headline on the report was, “Dutch Review Raises Concerns About Climate Report.”

Also, there is an effort to spin this report as showing the IPCC has some sort of a bias toward reporting negative impacts.  In fact the overwhelming majority of research since the IPCC has found that the IPCC has consistently underestimated many key current and future impacts, particularly sea level rise (and carbon-cycle feedbacks). Read more

Yglesias

Businesses Need Customers

Via Kevin Drum, an LA Times article that once again makes the point that we’re facing a crisis of demand—small businesses say they have access to credit but can’t expand because they don’t have any customers.

Drum comments, “Until consumers start spending again, economic growth is going to be weak. But what’s going to get consumers spending again?”

I don’t think this is brain surgery. If currently unemployed people had more cash in their pocket because—for example—the government hired them to do a job, then they’d probably spend more. If the federal government offered financial support for mass transit operations, then bus fares would be lower and consumers could spend more. If we did general state and local fiscal relief then taxes would be lower and consumers could spend more. If the Fed acted to raise short- and medium-term inflation expectations, then consumers would be inclined to spend more and businesses would be more inclined to undertake risky expansion projects. Ten percent unemployment is a fixable problem. I think it’s an open question as to whether these tools would become ineffective at 6 percent or 7 percent or 8 percent, but we could definitely make major progress.

Climate Progress

Bipartisan economists: Legislation Beats Regulation

The president has called for bold legislative action to create a clean energy economy. It would be a tragic mistake if this legislation did not include the broadest possible carbon pricing signal….

It would indeed be regrettable if Members of Congress, who universally prefer carbon markets over command-and-control regulation, could not enact a bill that spares us such regulation and begins to solve the climate problem.

Those are the opening and closing sentences of a Roll Call op-ed coauthored by economist Richard Schmalensee, director of MIT’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, who served on President George H.W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers.

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Media

Confusion at The Washington Post

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Washington Post ombudsman Andrew Alexander gives us another case study in how difficult it is for established institutions to transition into a new world:

Ezra Klein, one of The Post’s most talented and stimulating young journalists, writes online from a liberal perspective. His Web site bio promotes his “opinionated blog” on economic and domestic policy issues. He is featured on the site’s Opinions page, alongside other columnists with well-defined ideologies. But in the Business section of Sunday’s newspaper, Klein writes a column that is more analysis than dogma and contains no descriptive identification beyond his name and area of expertise. Should print-only readers, unaware of the slant of his blog, be told that he’s a well-established liberal? [...]

Executive Editor Marcus Brauchli acknowledged that readers may be confused by Post journalists who “wear more than one hat” when they “opine in one forum and appear to report in another forum.”

The solution, he said, is to be “completely transparent about what people do . . . and completely transparent about where people stand.”

And those in “traditional reporting positions,” he said, should remain “nonpartisan, unbiased and free from slant in their presentation in the paper and in any other public forum. There should be no appearance of conflict.”

Someone’s sure confused here! But are readers really going to be “confused” if someone “appears to report” some new factual information one day and then “opines” about it the next? Is it really true that opinion is identical to “dogma” and therefore entirely distinct from “analysis”? Why is there a “conflict” or “appearance of conflict” if people gathering factual information about the conduct of politicians and government officials also have opinions about that conduct? For that matter, why is there so much emphasis on appearance and how things seem rather than on what’s actually happening?

The issue is that objectivity is a business strategy not an epistemology. And it’s a business strategy that serves big city monopoly newspapers well, but serves news outlets in highly competitive marketplaces (online political news in the US today, but also national daily newspapers in the UK forever) quite poorly. But it’s very difficult for a big city daily newspaper that’s good at being a big city daily newspaper to suddenly adopt the different strategy appropriate to a different marketplace.

Politics

Leaked Luntz Poll: Majority of Americans don’t support Israeli flotilla raid.

Via Didi Remez (whose Coteret blog has become an indispensable resource for progressives on Israel-Palestine issues), Israel’s Channel Ten TV News was leaked a memo on a Frank Luntz poll commissioned by the right-wing propaganda outfit The Israel Project analyzing the effectiveness of the Israeli government’s public diplomacy efforts around the Gaza flotilla raid.

A summary of the findings:

1. 56% of Americans agree with the claim that there is a humanitarian crisis in Gaza;
2. 43% of Americans agree with the claim that people in Gaza are starving;
3. 34% of Americans support the Israeli operation against the Flotilla;
4. 20% of Americans “felt support” for Israel following announcement of easing of Gaza closure.

Consider these numbers against the fact that 84 Senators and 298 Representatives — 71% of the U.S. Congress — signed an AIPAC-backed letter supporting the flotilla raid. The Israel Project has worked with Luntz before, and gotten in trouble for it. Last year, columnist Doug Bloomfield obtained a copy of the group’s “Global Language Dictionary,” developed in conjunction with Luntz, which advocated equating an end to illegal Israeli settlement building with “ethnic cleansing” against Jews. Last December, journalist Spencer Ackerman also discovered that The Israel Project was shopping around an anti-Iran petition loaded up with false signatures.

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