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Yglesias

Jan Brewer’s Made-Up Immigration Stories

One thing that’s frustrating to me about the immigration debate is the extent to which it’s driven by sincerely believed, but quite clearly false, factual ideas about immigration and immigrants. Dana Milbank’s latest column is a great exercise in exposing how far the paranoia runs:

The Arizona governor, seemingly determined to repel every last tourist dollar from her pariah state, has sounded a new alarm about border violence. “Our law enforcement agencies have found bodies in the desert either buried or just lying out there that have been beheaded,” she announced on local television. [...] But those in fear of losing parts north of the neckline can relax. There’s not a follicle of evidence to support Brewer’s claim. [...]

Brewer’s mindlessness about headlessness is just one of the immigration falsehoods being spread by Arizona politicians. Border violence on the rise? Phoenix becoming the world’s No. 2 kidnapping capital? Illegal immigrants responsible for most police killings? The majority of those crossing the border are drug mules? All wrong.

The upshot of this is to create a toxic cycle of misinformation. Conservative politicians and media celebrities spread these ideas. Their fans believe them. Then when Dana Milbank or I or anyone else tries to set the record straight, that just goes to show that we’re liberals. So anyone who wants to be seen as credible in conservative circles doesn’t want to take these ideas on. So people become even more entrenched in the view that illegal immigration is causing a plague of violence. Which makes it even harder for anyone to bring some facts to the table.

Climate Progress

NASA: First half of 2010 breaks the thermometer ” despite “recent minimum of solar irradiance”

To receive daily updates on climate science, politics, and solutions, click here.

Jan-Jun 2010

Following fast on the heels of the hottest Jan-May “” and spring — in the temperature record, it’s also the hottest Jan-June on record in the NASA dataset [click on figure to enlarge].

It’s all the more powerful evidence of human-caused warming “because it occurs when the recent minimum of solar irradiance is having its maximum cooling effect,” as a recent must-read NASA paper notes.

Read more

Yglesias

MSM Orientation

Excellent parody from Conor Friedersdorf:

I just wanted to highlight one brief dig he gets in there at the beginning that people may miss. One of the stranger attributes of journalism is that the tendency is for people who are good at writing newspaper or magazine articles to be promoted to become managers of writers of newspaper or magazine articles, even though “running a newsroom” and “writing an article” are very different things.

Politics

GOP Reps Push Conspiracy Theories: BP Oil Spill Was An Inside Job, Obama Wants Poor Response

Following BP’s oil disaster, Republican lawmakers lined up to attack President Obama’s response to the spill, particularly efforts to rein in dangerous oil drilling and to create an escrow account to help expedite payments for BP’s victims. After a wave of Republicans attacked the escrow account as a “shakedown,” Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) went as far as formally apologizing to BP executives for how the Obama administration had treated them.

However, after rushing to the defense of a criminal multinational corporation like BP, now GOP lawmakers are ginning up conspiracy theories that Obama actually wants the oil disaster to be destructive. At a town hall yesterday in Athens, Georgia, Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA) said “maybe” Obama is “purposeful[ly]” giving a “poor response to this oil spill” so he “could promote his energy tax”:

BROUN: Our President he is utilizing this crisis of this oil spill to try to promote this energy tax. And I’ve had numerous people, all over the district, question whether his poor response to this oil spill was purposeful so that he could promote his energy tax. I don’t know, maybe.

Watch it:

Despite the absurdity of Broun’s comments, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) managed to concoct a far crazier conspiracy theory with radio host Alex Jones during an interview on July 1st.

Jones floated the idea that BP had planned the spill by giving “orders they knew would cause a problem,” BP “funded the carbon tax,” that BP actually wants the U.S. government to nationalize their assets, and the entire clean energy bill is a secret plot to establish a global government. He also noted that the Obama administration wants the spill to worsen to provoke “forced evacuations.” Paul did not dispute any of Jones’ ideas. Rather, he confirmed that he also is “very suspicious of BP and our government and even the Obama administration.” The Texas congressman then said Jones “forgot” that Obama used “executive orders” to dictate policy, giving the example of the escrow account, and that because of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan drained necessary National Guard troops that could have been used in the Gulf. Listen here:

Of course, literally nothing either Jones or Paul said was true or is substantiated by evidence. Obama negotiated the $20 billion escrow account; he did not create it by executive order, as Paul contends. Also, Obama has deployed thousands of National Guard reserves — however in many cases, they are not being used because Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) and others have not formulated plans to put them to work.

Transcript Read more

Yglesias

Greek Military Spending

This is hardly the only source of Greece’s fiscal woes, but via Tyler Cowen this kind of thing can’t be helping: “Greece, with a population of just 11 million, is the largest importer of conventional weapons in Europe—and ranks fifth in the world behind China, India, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea. Its military spending is the highest in the European Union as a percentage of gross domestic product.”

The thing about military spending that I don’t think is properly understood is the extent to which if it’s not necessary it’s truly wasteful. Building a mag-lev train from Chicago to Milwaukee would be a “waste of money” but if you did it, the resulting train would still be useful to people and lead to some increased value. But a tank you don’t need just does nothing. An extra brigade of soldiers consumes resources and doesn’t produce anything. Of course if your tanks and soldiers produce “Nazis don’t conquer Europe” then it’s valuable indeed. But if you don’t need them, you really don’t need them. Consequently, for countries like Turkey and Greece it’s extremely costly to pursue these long-term military rivalries.

Climate Progress

Must-see TV: CNBC host slams Competitive Enterprise Institute for pushing Jones Act disinformation: “Its offensive to intelligence”

Few septics push anti-science disinformation more flagrantly than those at the Competitive Enterprise Institute (see “Santer, Jones, and Schneider respond to CEI’s phony attack on the temperature record“).

But the MSM isn’t filled with experts on science, so most climate falsehoods from the big-oil-funded group go unchallenged, no matter how offensive they are to people’s intelligence.   On Thursday, however, CEI made so many bogus claims about the federal response to the BP oil disaster that even CNBC anchor Mark Haines couldn’t stomach it.

Wonk Room has the story and must-see video:

Read more

Yglesias

Free Markets

I’m all for rooting against the new look Heat, but it is worth saying that a lot of the anti-LeBron commentary of the past couple of days bespeaks a major anti-labor bias in our popular culture. The guy had an offer from one employer and a competing offer from another employer—he took the offer he preferred. Is that really so terrible? Does he really have a moral obligation to work for Dan Gilbert’s for-profit firm indefinitely? Would you like to be told that if you get offered a better job, it’s unethical for you to accept it? I wouldn’t.

What would be best would be for the NBA to do away with the absurdity of the maximum individual salary. Let some team offer James such an astronomical sum of money that it’s not feasible to add other quality players. Let some team pursue a counter-strategy of assembling 7-9 evenly matched players. Let someone offer a star player an equity stake in the team and a low salary.

Meanwhile, recall that Gilbert had the option of trading Wally Szczerbiak’s $13 million expiring contract before the 2009 trade deadline to improve the quality of his team, increase the odds of Cleveland winning a ring in 2009 or 2010 and increase the odds of LeBron James choosing to resign with the Cavs. He chose not to do so. It’s his team, he can do what he wants. But his employees aren’t obligated to continue working for him past the expiration of their contracts if they’re not satisfied with the way the organization is run.

Politics

Major BP Shareholder Rep. Sensenbrenner Says BP Doesn’t ‘Deserve Any Type Of Executive Bonuses’

In June, the AP reported that Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI) owns hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of BP stock, according to financial disclosures. Shortly after the spill, Sensenbrenner focused his criticism on President Obama, attacking him for “publicly chastising and threatening BP” when BP “likely wants this resolved more than anyone.”

At a town hall in Saukville, Wisconsin on Tuesday, Sensenbrenner told ThinkProgress that he would not recuse himself from BP-related votes, despite his financial ties to the company. However, Sensenbrenner said BP executives “don’t deserve any type of executive bonuses,” and if he were on the BP corporate board, he would vote against using shareholder money for bonuses this year:

TP: Do you think BP should suspend dividend payments and executive bonuses until the spill is cleaned up? And also, do you think the U.S. government should repeal the special tax breaks given to BP, like the $4 billion in special subsidies that was reported last weekend.

SENSENBRENNER: Well let me say number one, the determination whether to suspend dividend payments or executive bonuses is going to have to be made by the BP board of directors. However BP is a corporation that is not organized by the laws of any state in the United States of America and is a British corporation subject to British corporate law. The point that I would make for issues such as this, there are a lot of pension funds in the United States and elsewhere that have heavily invested in BP stock even though the BP stock has gone down by 50%. [...] If I were on the board of directors of BP, which I am not, you know the bonus depends on how well they do, basically how the bottom line is. The bottom line has tanked so I don’t think they deserve any type of executive bonus. But again, this is the shareholders’ money.

Watch it:

As a laissez faire conservative, Sensenbrenner is unwilling to bring legal pressure to bear on BP, hoping instead that the BP board does the right thing on bonuses. Another major BP shareholder in Congress, Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ), has criticized President Obama’s deepwater drilling moratorium.

Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) has called on BP to suspend its payment of bonuses and instead use that money to help Gulf Coast families who have been victimized by the oil spill.

Yglesias

Less Money, Mo Problems

Felix Salmon says I was too quick to assert that the Fed’s response to the crisis involved a sharp increase in M2:

M2 1

Yes, M2 rose in the wake of the crisis. But the sharp rise in M2 dates back much further than that — in fact, you can trace it all the way back to the mid-1990s. The red line doesn’t start rising more sharply when the crisis hits, nor do the blue lines get noticeably larger. There’s one big jump in M2 between August 2008 and January 2009, right at the height of the Lehman collapse, during which it rises from $7.79 trillion to $8.32 trillion, a rise of just under 7%. But we’ve seen that kind of thing before: between November 2000 and May 2001, M2 grew by more than 5%, and then between May 2001 and October 2001, it went on to grow another 4% on top of that.

Others feel the most appropriate measure is the MZM Money Stock:

FRED Graph 1

In this view, we’re stuck in neutral because monetary conditions are actually quite tight.

Yglesias

Taxophobia

I think this Greg Mankiw post against stimulus and Brad DeLong’s riposte are worth reading. Then it’s worth considering that I think writers in the Krugman/DeLong/Thoma vein are all being a bit too literal in their disagreements with the center-of-center economists of the world.

What I take Mankiw et al to be saying is that taxes are really, really, really bad. And taxes on high-income people are really, really, really, really, really, really, really bad. They think that the electorate is joined by leftwing economists in massively underestimating the scale of the badness. And they look at population aging and growing health care costs and see that it’s likely that taxes will go up in the future. And they think this is an incredibly bad outcome, with massive negative long-term consequences. Consequences that are far more dire than any transient, years-long period of unemployment. Ergo, it’s really important to do the best one can to weather the 111th Congress—the most leftwing congress in decades, and the most leftwing congress we’re likely to see in quite some time—while minimizing increases in the spending level. Really, really, really important.

I can’t prove this is wrong, and Mankiw can’t prove it’s right, but as he notes this—the level of tax-aversion and related disagreements about the key drivers of the political process—is really at the root of the disagreement.

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