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In Memoriam: Stephen Schneider

Dr. Stephen Schneider, one of the greatest minds of the science of climate change, has died at the age of 65. Schneider advised every presidential administration since Nixon, founded the journal Climatic Change, was a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and authored or co-authored over 450 scientific papers. He was also a unique voice, clearly expressing the threat of manmade global warming to the general public for over three decades. As he said in a 1979 appearance as a young scientist with an Eric-Bogosian mop of hair:

We’re insulting our global environment at a faster rate than we’re understanding it.

Watch it:

On September 2, 2005, as the Gulf Coast reeled from Hurricane Katrina, Dr. Schneider appeared on Real Time with Bill Maher:

Every time we try to talk about getting a tax on these emissions, we’re told it’s an interference in the free market, as if we should get our garbage collected for free.

Watch it:

In one of his last media appearances, the oft-smeared Dr. Schneider participated in a podcast with ClimateScienceWatch about his recent paper, “Expert Credibility in Climate Change,” co-authored with blogger Jim Prall, Jacob Harold, and lead author William Anderegg. A moon-faced Schneider vehemently explained that credible expertise is a life-and-death matter:

It really matters what your credentials are. If you have a heart arrhythmia, as I do, and I also have a cardiologist — and you also have an oncological problem, as I do, I’m not going to my cancer doc to ask him about my heart medicine and my cardiologist to ask about my chemo, I’m going to the experts. Who is an expert really matters. People with no expertise, their opinion frankly doesn’t matter much on complex issues, and in my opinion, shouldn’t even be quoted about complex details of science.

Watch it:

His most recent book, Science as a Contact Sport, is a delightful work reminiscent of Richard Feynman’s memoirs, full of amusing anecdotes and remarkable breakthroughs that reveal both a diamond-hard scientific mind and an effervescent joy for life.

I tried to catch him for an interview at the Copenhagen climate conference last December, but we couldn’t make our schedules mesh. Fortunately for myself and the rest of the human race, Dr. Schneider will live on through his great opus of work. Sadly, time is running out for us to honor his legacy by turning back the black tide of global warming.

Politics

Rep. Lamar Smith Hints At Impeaching Obama Over Immigration: He’s ‘Close’ To Violating His Oath Of Office

Since the Justice Department sued Arizona over SB-1070, its harsh new anti-immigration law, Republicans have been blasting the Obama administration, saying officials are showing “contempt for the majority of the American people who support Arizona’s efforts.” Sens. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and David Vitter (R-LA) have even introduced an amendment that would prohibit the federal government from “participating in lawsuits seeking to invalidate the recently enacted Arizona immigration law.”

On Wednesday, Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX) was on Lou Dobbs’ radio show and went a step further. He agreed with Dobbs’ statement that President Obama is “awfully close” to violating his “oath to protect the Constitution of the United States” by not completely securing the border:

DOBBS: The fact that we’ve witnessed both the Bush administration and now the Obama administration…refuse to secure the borders, refuse to enforce immigration law — at what point does this rise to the level of a breach of oath to protect the Constitution of the United States?

SMITH: I think we’re on the verge of being there right now. … Whatever law they’re not enforcing, I think it comes awfully close to a violation of their oath of office.

Listen here:

Neither Dobbs nor Smith mention the word impeachment, but in the past, a violation of the oath of office has been cited as grounds for such a procedure. During President Bill Clinton’s impeachment trial in 1999, Rep. Henry Hyde (R-IL) said:

The debate about impeachment during the Constitutional Convention of 1787 makes it clear that the Framers of the Constitution regarded impeachment and removal from office on conviction as a remedy for a fundamental betrayal of trust by the President. The Framers had invested the presidential office with great powers. They knew that those powers could be — and would be — abused if any President were to violate, in a fundamental way, the oath he had sworn to faithfully execute the nation’s laws.

For if the President did so violate his oath of office, the covenant of trust between himself and the American people would be broken.

Is Smith really therefore interested in impeaching Obama over the immigration issue?

Health

Blaming The Health Care Law For Everything

In his latest Kaiser Health News column, Jonathan Cohn points to two health care trends in today’s papers (“Firms Cancel Health Coverage“) and (“Insurers Push Plans Limiting Patient Choice of Doctors“) and explains why reform is not to blame:

Insofar as the articles report broader trends–and they may not–they actually chronicle the same basic process at work. Health care is getting more expensive; the economy is still sputtering. Employers who provide and help pay for employee coverage can react to this in one of two ways. They can stop offering insurance altogether, which is what the Globe reports some small Massachusetts firms are doing. Or they can simply offer less generous policies, which is what the Times suggest will happen in those three cities. [...]

But what about the people who watch as employers whittle down coverage, restricting which doctors and hospitals they can see? Again, this happened before and was bound to happen again–only now, thanks to health reform, the law will limit how plans can do it. They can’t impose cost-sharing for basic preventive care. They can’t impose annual or lifetime dollar caps on benefits. And while they can limit beneficiaries to certain doctors and hospitals, they have to offer beneficiaries the right to appeal treatment denials–and the right to get treatment out-of-network if it’s not available in-network.

And that’s perhaps one of the ironies of reform: critics and the general public will blame the law for causing the very same long-existing problems that it seeks to ameliorate. (Remember when conservatives faulted the new grandfather regulations for forcing Americans out of their existing insurance plans, when in reality the regulations discourageed employers and insurers from stiffing beneficiaries with very higher costs?)

Over the short term, any anxiety about the changing insurance market or the shift from employer-based coverage will be blamed on the Democrats and reform. Stories like this one about businesses anxieties and loss of employer-sponsored coverage are and will continue to dominate the media. Only successful implementation of reform and time will change this narrative.

Yglesias

Endgame

Let it burn my back:

— More abuse of blog for personal gain: 50% discount available at Ella’s if you click the link.

— DC’s a better pizza town than people think—Pete’s, Matchbox, and Comet Ping Pong also have excellent pies.

— The Penn State problem.

Improving Nutrion for America’s Children.

— All about hops.

— Chris Dodd thinks Elizabeth Warren would face a filibuster, a fight I would welcome if I were President.

The idea of a band named “Wavves” makes me mad, but the new album is good. Here’s “King of the Beach”.

Politics

Local North Carolina Tea Party Group Protests YMCA Community Center Project

The Tea Party movement gets plenty of attention for its national protests, but the groups are becoming increasingly active at the local level as well. In Currituck County, North Carolina, the local Tea Party Patriots group, led by a man named Charles Carter, is taking aim at county plans to build a local community center in cooperation with the YMCA. The Daily Advance in Elizabeth City, NC reports:

Charles Carter, founder of the Tea Party Patriots, says the agreement between the county and the YMCA is “one sided” and questions the county’s openness in providing information about how the deal was arranged in the first place. “I think it’s an open window to their position on fiscal responsibility,” said Carter. [...]

Carter said he is dissatisfied with the county’s response to his protests so far. … Carter charges that the county has agreed to pay $15 million up-front for the new recreational building, but the YMCA has done little to contribute to the investment.

Like so many of the Tea Party talking points at the national level, these charges are based on misinformation. Carter has charged that the Currituck-YMCA deal was not publicly discussed until after a decision had been made. However, there is video evidence of County Attorney Ike McRee “going over items of the lease agreement at a commissioners’ meeting” as far back as November 2009. Additionally, this deal is far from the “sweetheart deal” and big government spending that Carter alleges:

County plans for building a recreational center abruptly halted in 2008 after the county learned it would cost $28 million. At the time, the county had saved only $11 million and could not afford to move forward, explained Scanlon.

New hope for the center re-emerged after the YMCA offered to build basically the same facility for $15 million. The YMCA can build it for less because it uses the same contractors each time it builds a new facility, a YMCA representative said at the meeting.

Operational costs would also be less, said Scanlon. The YMCA can operate the center for less because it uses the same data base for all its facilities in Hampton Roads.

The editorial staff of the Daily Advance also took Carter to task for dishonestly opposing the deal, stating that the new project is actually a great example of citizen involvement:

Currituck County residents — not their government — have been asking for a wider range of recreational opportunities for more than a decade. Both longtime and new residents have sought the addition of ballfields, parks and other facilities to provide outlets and alternatives for youth and adults in the growing county.

Government in Currituck has responded by looking for opportunities and by appointing citizens to serve on recreation boards to identify recreational needs and help in the planning of facilities. To suggest that citizens have not been involved in the process is not only misleading and unfair to Currituck officials but also to those citizens who have been involved.

The editorial goes on to mock Carter’s attempts to portray the YMCA as evil, stating that the group “is a partner — and a good one — in a worthwhile project, not some middle-man brokering a sleazy side hustle.”

Tea Party and FreedomWorks chapters in Georgia recently also took up an important cause: opposing mandatory trash collection.

Justice

New Study Confirms That Poverty Is Feeding AIDS Epidemic

aids-ribbonA new report commissioned by the CDC and presented this morning at the International AIDS Conference in Vienna finds that “[p]overty is perhaps the most important factor in whether inner-city heterosexuals are infected with the AIDS virus.” The report, which excluded men who have sex with men and drug users, examined 9,000 heterosexual adults living in some 23 cities and detected HIV “in 2.4 percent of the people who were living below the federal poverty line” and a significantly lower 1.2 percent of people “who made more money than the federal poverty guideline.”

From CDC’s press release:

Prevalence was especially high in those with the lowest socioeconomic status. Within the low income urban areas included in the study, individuals living below the poverty line were at greater risk for HIV than those living above it (2.4 percent prevalence vs. 1.2 percent), though prevalence for both groups was far higher than the national average (0.45 percent)….The absence of race-based differences in this analysis is likely due to existing high prevalence of HIV in poor urban areas, which – regardless of race or ethnicity – places individuals living in these areas at greater risk for exposure to HIV with each sexual encounter.

Authors note that other factors associated with poverty also likely contribute to high HIV prevalence in these settings. Some of these factors include limited health care access, which can reduce utilization of HIV testing and prevention services; substance abuse, which can increase sexual risk behavior; and high rates of incarceration, which can disrupt the stability of relationships.

Of course, the absence of race-base differences doesn’t mean that they don’t exist; it suggests that black people are disproportionately affected by AIDS not because they are disproportionately poor. In fact, given that black and Hispanic Americans are more likely to live in neighborhoods with concentrated poverty than other racial and ethnic groups, the study’s participants were 77% black, 15% Hispanic and only 4% white.

As the Black AIDS Institute put it, “We believe this is essentially a difference without a distinction.” The gap in AIDS rates have been “driven by social determinants of health: socioeconomic status, high rates of sexually transmitted diseases, high rates of incarceration, man sharing (knowingly and unknowingly) due to gender imbalances, lack of access to healthcare, lack of a regular health provider and low HIV literacy.” Black people “are disproportionately poor” and “when Whites and Latinos live in poor Black communities, they are negatively impacted by the same social determinants that undermine the health of their Black neighbors.”

“Black people still bare the brunt of the AIDS epidemic in America today,” the organization notes. “This study demonstrates one of the reasons why. Race matters and so does poverty. Black people are disproportionately impacted by HIV; Black people are disproportionately poor. ‘You say tomato; I say tomato.’” The CDC’s own statistics demonstrate this reality:

CDCAIDS2

Obama’s new AIDS initiative re-allocates “more attention and resources” to “populations at highest risk of HIV infection,” including Black and Latino Americans — many of whom are living in poverty. The initiative also instructs federal agencies to consider additional efforts to support housing assistance and community clinics and notes that under the health law, poorer Americans will be eligible for Medicaid coverage.

Yglesias

Rich Countries in the Grip of Zero-Sum Thinking About Chinese Economic Growth

269-05-04

The way countries get richer, more or less, is that they get better at producing goods and services. This is excellent news for the population of those countries, but it’s also good news for just about everyone else. Except according to the latest Pew survey, when it comes to economic growth in China many don’t believe it:

Concerns about China’s economic might are high among publics in the U.S. and Europe. In most of these countries, majorities or pluralities consider China’s growing economy a bad thing for their countries. Respondents in France are the most likely of all the countries surveyed to be concerned about China’s economic prowess (67%). In Britain, the public is divided on this issue, while in Russia, a plurality think China’s growing economy is a good thing for their country (49%).

In several developing countries, majorities consider China’s growing economic strength a good thing. Notable exceptions are Turkey (60%) and India (56%), where majorities are concerned about China’s economic might. Majorities or pluralities in every Middle Eastern, African and Latin American country surveyed see China’s growing economy as a good thing for their country. In Asia, Pakistan, Indonesia and Japan are also largely positive.

I think this is a very serious misunderstanding on the part of Americans and Europeans. China becoming better at producing goods and services is good for us since it allows us to consume more goods and services. At the same time, it in no way detracts from our own ability to produce goods and services.

What’s more, beyond those narrow economic considerations, growth in China is strongly positive-sum in a number of other domains. A richer China will, for its own selfish reasons, be host to increased quantities of scientific and technical research that will increase the overall stock of human knowledge in a generally beneficial way. A richer China will also produce additional works of culture that will enrich our lives over and above whatever economic value they might have. Economic growth in China and other large poor countries is one of the most promising phenomena of our times and it’s a very big problem that people don’t generally understand it that way.

Yglesias

Metro Needs More Capacity

(cc photo by takomabibelot)

(cc photo by takomabibelot)

I think it’s a bit odd to frame an article about overcrowding on Metro as a story about the problem of “seathogs” who try to take up two seats. This is obnoxious behavior, but as we learn halfway through the article the main problem here is undercapacity:

By 2020, Metro projects that the Red, Blue and Yellow lines will be “highly congested,” with 100 to 120 people per car, and that the Orange Line will be “unmanageable,” with more than 120 riders per car.

The transit agency would need 320 more rail cars to keep congestion manageable, but the current capital spending plan does not include funds for those, Kubicek said in a recent presentation to Metro’s board of directors.

The failure to continue investment in Metro’s capacity at an adequate level is incredibly shortsighted. Since its construction in the 1970s, Metro has been an enormous success and today it serves as the infrastructure backbone for one of the largest metropolitan areas in the country. I think car commuters think they don’t care about Metro performance or capacity, but they’re going to learn otherwise when the people who don’t fit on the trains all try to join them on the highway. If we do congestion pricing on the roads and use a healthy share of the funds to keep increasing transit capacity, then everyone will end up happy. If we continue down the current course, we’re going to choke on each other and the region will have to stop growing.

Politics

Racist New Hampshire State House Candidate Advises Tea Party To Be More Open With Its Racism

While the tea party movement is desperately trying to fight off charges of “racist elements” from the NAACP, Ryan J. Murdough, a Republican candidate for New Hampshire State House, has no qualms about expressing his views on race. “It is time for white people in New Hampshire and across the country to take a stand,” Murdough wrote in a letter to the Concord Monitor titled “We must preserve our racial identity”:

For far too long white Americans have been told that diversity is something beneficial to their existence. Statistics prove that the opposite is true. New Hampshire residents must seek to preserve their racial identity if we want future generations to have to possibility to live in such a great state. Affirmative action, illegal and legal non-white immigration, anti-white public school systems, and an anti-white media have done much damage to the United States of America and especially New Hampshire. It is time for white people in New Hampshire and across the country to take a stand. We are only 8 percent of the world’s population and we need our own homeland, just like any other non-white group of people deserve their own homeland.

Murdough is running as a Republican because it’s easier to get on the ballot, but the party immediately “disowned him as a candidate on their ticket,” calling him a “despicable racist” and a “fraud.” But Murdough has no love lost for the GOP, complaining, “they’ve sold white people out.”

It’s unclear whether Murdough is a tea partier, but in the comments section of the Monitor’s website, where Murdough is very active, he wrote, “I think the Tea Party movement is doing great things.” His rhetoric in the comments often reflects that of the movement, and he repeatedly advises the the tea party to “embrace the fact [that] there is a racial aspect to the movement.” “White people need to stop wasting time arguing about how they are not racist,” he said in one comment, adding in another:

The Tea Party at its core is all about race but most of the Tea Partiers do not even realize it. They downplay the race issue every chance they get because they are afraid of being perceived as racist.

He also called on them to stop the “jewish appeasing.” “If the Republicans continue to put out weak, israel first, zionist, anti white, neo cons, the tea party will be for nothing,” Murdough warned.

In an interview, Murdough denied that he is a racist, explaining, “I can’t really be a racist, because I don’t hate them. I just don’t want to live around areas that are heavily, predominantly non-white.” Still, Murdough believes Martin Luther King was a prostitute-chasing Communist who was just “out for the black man,” and that Abraham Lincoln was one of history’s worst presidents because “[h]e waged war against the South.” He’s also worried about white “genocide,” noting, “Nobody is flooding Africa with non-Africans.” But Murdough is an equal opportunity bigot, saying, “no group of people has exploited their victimhood as much as Jews have.” “Technically, they’re a different race than white people.” He’s also homophobic, writing that gay parenting is “child abuse” and that “Homosexuals want to get married because they hate Christ.” Murdough acknowledges his stance on race and “Jewish issues” is controversial, but claimed he has DNA evidence to support him.

Murdough is the state chairman of American Third Position (A3P), “a fledgling political party…with the aim of uniting disaffected racists,” the Southern Poverty Law Center reports. Last week, the group proudly announced its “triple-digit donation” (i.e. less than $1,000) to a fund established by Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) to defend her state’s draconian new immigration law. (HT: Political Correction)

Economy

Kyl Obstructs Small Business Tax Cuts In Order To Protect Small Businesses From Imaginary Tax Increase

Today, President Obama pressed Congress to approve a pending bill that provides tax credits to small businesses and sets up a lending fund to get credit to businesses that are having trouble finding loans. “We must continue our efforts to do everything in our power to spur growth and hiring. And I hope the Senate acts this week on a package of tax cuts and expanded lending for small businesses,” he said.

One of the reasons that the bill Obama referenced hasn’t made its way through the Senate is that Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) has been threatening to bog it down with his proposed cut in the estate tax, which would send $91 billion in tax cuts to the richest of the rich. But Kyl is claiming that his obstruction of the small business bill is actually an attempt to protect small businesses from tax rates that he says are “going to skyrocket”:

If the Small Business Lending bill is intended to help small business create jobs, wouldn’t it make sense to provide small business owners with the certainty that their tax rates aren’t going to skyrocket at the beginning of next year?

It definitely does make sense to ensure that tax rates don’t “skyrocket” on small businesses, and Kyl is presumably worried that allowing the estate tax to reset to its 2001 level, as current law stipulates, will do just that. But even if we grant Kyl’s premise, all that’s needed to avoid that outcome is for the Senate to approve a bill to approve a bill which has already passed the House that will permanently set the estate tax at the 2009 level. However, it was Kyl himself who blocked that plan, in his zeal to cut taxes for the super rich.

In fact, just like Kyl’s position on the Bush tax cuts proves that he doesn’t really care about deficits, his position on the estate tax proves that he doesn’t really care about small businesses. After all, at the 2009 level, just 0.25 percent of estates will have any estate tax liability at all. And just 1.3 percent of that 0.25 percent will be composed of estates with significant small business assets.

The Tax Policy Center estimates that at the 2009 level, just 110 small businesses in the entire country will owe any estate tax in 2011. Of these, all but a handful will have sufficient assets to pay the tax, and the exceedingly few that don’t “have other options — such as spreading their payments over a 14-year period — that would allow them to pay the tax without selling off any” assets.

In all, less than one quarter of one percent of the total cost of Kyl’s tax cut would actually end up in the hands of small businesses; the rest would simply go to further enriching the rich. So either Kyl has no idea what the practical implications of his stated policy preference are, or he’s using small businesses as a convenient prop to knowingly push through tax cuts for the rich. Either way, his professed concern over an imaginary tax hike on small businesses is getting in the way of small businesses receiving actual relief.

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