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Politics

Pelosi: The American people ‘are weary of war’ and want to hear about ‘economic security.’

Today, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) appeared on ABC’s This Week With Christiane Amanpour and fielded a variety of questions about current events. In a portion of the interview that was only posted online, the ABC host asked Pelosi if, given the declining public support for the Afghan war, the President should act to “drum up support” for the conflict. The Speaker responded that the American people are “weary of war” and what they “really want to hear from the president now” is about their “economic security”:

AMANPOUR: When you talk to people around the country, and you see in some areas support slipping. And the president as you say is such a great communicator. Would it help you, would it be a good idea if he went out more to talk about what’s really at stake and drum up support?

PELOSI: What the American people really want to hear from the president now is, because I believe many of them are weary of war, they’re not weary of being protected, but weary of war, they’re worried about their economic security. And that’s what they want to hear from the president, is how do we go, is the president taking us in a forward direction? That’s what the people want to hear about, how we can create jobs in our country, as we reduce the deficit. Our agenda is about making it in America, make products in America, and make it as a person in America. It’s about protecting Social Security, it’s about lowering the deficit.

Watch it:

Indeed, polling finds that the economy and jobs are the foremost concern on the minds of Americans. And the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that only 43 percent of Americans find the war in Afghanistan worth fighting; the latest Gallup poll on the issue finds that 58 percent of Americans support a drawdown of U.S. troops from the country along the President’s proposed July 2011 timeline (although it is unclear what that timeline really entails).

Yglesias

Education and Wages

From Ed Luce’s excellent article on the crisis of the American middle class:

And although the golden years were driven by the rise of mass higher education, you did not need to have graduated from high school to make ends meet. Like her husband, Connie Freeman was raised in a “working-class” home in the Iron Range of northern Minnesota near the Canadian border. Her father, who left school aged 14 following the Great Depression of the 1930s, worked in the iron mines all his life. Towards the end of his working life he was earning $15 an hour – more than $40 in today’s prices.

Thirty years later, Connie, who is far better qualified than her father, having graduated from high school and done one year of further education, makes $17 an hour. The pace of life has also changed: “We used to sit around the dinner table every evening when I was growing up,” says Connie, who speaks with prolonged vowels of the Midwest. “Nowadays that’s sooooo rare.”

There are a lot of things going on here, but one point to keep in mind is that progress in educational attainment is generally beneficial not just beneficial to the people who get the extra education. Insofar as more Finnish people acquire skills and learn to be cell phone company executives or furniture designers or Finnair pilots that’s (a) more income to be spent on goods and services produced by lower-skilled people and (b) fewer lower-skilled people to compete for those jobs. Consequently, the Finnish people who don’t upgrade their skills also benefit from the fact that other Finnish people have been upgrading. Consequently, the great expansion in educational opportunities in the 1870-1970 era helped produce prosperity even for people like Connie Freeman’s dad who didn’t necessarily personally acquire a great deal of education.

Climate Progress

David Stockman bombshell: How my Republican Party destroyed the American economy.

The “debt explosion has resulted not from big spending by the Democrats, but instead the Republican Party’s embrace, about three decades ago, of the insidious doctrine that deficits don’t matter if they result from tax cuts.”

Cue the FoxNews denunciations.

David Stockman, director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, has dared to call out his own party for creating our current economic problems.  His NYT op-ed, “Four Deformations of the Apocalypse,” begins:

IF there were such a thing as Chapter 11 for politicians, the Republican push to extend the unaffordable Bush tax cuts would amount to a bankruptcy filing.

Given our long-term deficit problem, Stockman said it is “unseemly for the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, to insist that the nation’s wealthiest taxpayers be spared even a three-percentage-point rate increase.”

UPDATE:  Huffpost reports that in an interview today on NBC’s Meet the Press, “Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said that the push by congressional Republicans to extend the Bush tax cuts without offsetting the costs elsewhere could end up being ‘disastrous’ for the economy.”

Here are some more excerpts from Stockman’s must-read piece:

Read more

Yglesias

The Price of Textbooks

Scott McNealy seems to me to be making good points:

Mr. McNealy, the fiery co-founder and former chief executive of Sun Microsystems, shuns basic math textbooks as bloated monstrosities: their price keeps rising while the core information inside of them stays the same.

“Ten plus 10 has been 20 for a long time,” Mr. McNealy says.

Early this year, Oracle, the database software maker, acquired Sun for $7.4 billion, leaving Mr. McNealy without a job. He has since decided to aim his energy and some money at Curriki, an online hub for free textbooks and other course material that he spearheaded six years ago.

“We are spending $8 billion to $15 billion per year on textbooks” in the United States, Mr. McNealy says. “It seems to me we could put that all online for free.”

I live near the Washington Historical Society building which was originally constructed by Andrew Carnegie as a library. Consequently, stenciled into its stately façade are high-minded slogans extolling the virtues of library construction. It’s “a university for the people” and “dedicated to the dissemination of knowledge.” Of course the technology available at the time—big old buildings full of books that people could borrow—was rather crude. Today we have some much better technology available that in principle could massively accelerate the productivity of our education system. But we haven’t yet seen the equivalent to the wave of library-building that gave this country its array of municipal and university library systems.

Politics

Kyl Dismisses Reports That Crime Is Down In Arizona As A ‘Gross Generalization’

Arizona politicians who support the state’s new immigration law have spent the past few months justifying the passage of SB-1070 by pointing to the high levels of crime that undocumented immigrants have brought to their state. However, over the past few weeks, the media has countered their claims of kidnappings and beheadings with reports that the border is “safer than ever” and “one of America’s safest places.” Today, when pressed by guest anchor Harry Smith on CBS’ Face the Nation, SB-1070 supporter Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) called the reports a “gross generalization”:

SMITH: One of the things that’s come to light over the past last couple weeks is that in some of these border towns that were thought to be susceptible to lawbreaking of illegal immigrants. Crime is actually down. Crime in Phoenix for instance is down significantly over the past couple of years.

KYL: Well, that’s a gross generalization. Property crimes are up, certain violent crimes on certain parts of the citizenry are up. Phoenix is a very large source of kidnapping. It’s called the kidnapping capital of the United States…So there’s a great deal of violence and crime associated with illegal immigrants.

Watch it:

Far from being a “gross generalization,” as undocumented immigration has increased, crime in Arizona has dropped in almost every category — including property crime. FBI statistics show that Arizona’s overall crime rate dropped 12 percent last year and 23 percent between 2004 and 2008. More specifically, Media Matters reports that the Bureau of Justice Statistics shows that the per capita property crime rate in Arizona was lower in 2006, 2007, and 2008 than any year since 1968.

And while Kyl has repeatedly claimed that Arizona is the “kidnapping capital of the United States,” adding in the past that “it’s second only in the world to Mexico City,” Politifact recently classified the claim as “false.” According to Politifact, though the number of kidnappings that have occurred in Phoenix since 2008 have been specified, no one has said how many kidnappings were reported in other cities. Neither the FBI nor the U.S. National Central Bureau of Interpol could confirm the claim. Most experts immediately dismissed the claim that Arizona is “second only to Mexico.”

In his interview, Kyl also claimed Judge Susan Bolton’s decision to block the most significant provisions of SB-1070 from taking effect this past week was “wrong,” despite the fact that Bolton was nominated to the bench following his recommendation and praise. Kyl admitted that “tweaking” SB-1070 “won’t work to obviate the concerns of judge.” Instead, Kyl recommends Congress should act to “reaffirm” that its intent is that the law should be enforced.

Media

News Industry Productivity

The WikiLeaks document dump offered tons of new data points about conditions in Afghanistan but the quantity and nature of the documents meant that it’s difficult for an individual to gain insights without further work of analysis and context-building. Anne Applebaum’s interpretation of this is that “The notion that the Internet can replace traditional news-gathering has just been revealed to be a myth. . . . without more journalism, more investigation, more work, these documents just don’t matter that much.”

This seems like a myopic way of understanding technological change. In many respects, a car can’t “replace” the pleasures of riding a horse. And consequently, people still ride horses. People still watch horses race. People breed and sell horses. People train horses. There’s a whole horse industry out there. Horses remain a vital part of the emotional and economic life of many people. And yet, the whole horse thing has become pretty economically marginal whereas the automobile has completely reshaped global society. The horses don’t go away and for certain things they remain crucial, but still cars tend to displace horses.

The internet isn’t making traditional news-gathering irrelevant or unnecessary, but it is making it less central to how we get information about public affairs. To take a simple but clear example, in 1990 if I wanted to know what the BEA’s latest GDP figures said I think I would have to read about it in my newspaper. Twenty years later, I can look it up myself on their website. That one fact doesn’t overturn every aspect of economics journalism any more than WikiLeaks single-handedly renders traditional military reporting irrelevant, but it does change the game.

Climate Progress

The World Is Burning, And The New York Times Fiddles Inhofe’s Tune

Putin visits fire siteThis week, New York Times reporters noticed that the world is hot, but they keep their readers in the dark about the real story, a sad example of the decline of its climate coverage from earlier days. Even in stories about the increasingly catastrophic impacts of global warming, they ignore the scientific understanding of our climate system and the deadly influence of fossil fuel pollution. In Thursday’s “From Fires to Fish, Heat Wave Batters Russia,” investigative reporter Clifford Levy describes the devastation of a superheated Russia:

Much of Russia has been reeling. Forest fires have erupted. Drought has ruined millions of acres of wheat. More than 2,000 people have died from drowning in rivers, reservoirs and elsewhere in July and June, often after seeking relief from the heat while intoxicated. In Moscow alone, the number of such deaths has tripled in comparison with last year, officials said.

In “Fires and Storms Kill at Least 28 in Russia,” Russian correspondent Andrew Kramer at least notes that the record heat in the largest country on earth is part of an even larger geographic trend: “Russia, like much of the Northern Hemisphere, has been baking in a heat wave this summer.” Other stories about record-breaking climate disasters abound: “Floods in Pakistan Kill at Least 1,000,” write Salman Masood and Adam B. Ellick, caused by “record-breaking rainfall.” “Iowa Dam Ruptures Under Torrential Rain,” Christina Cappecchi files. In “Water Vendors Profit From the Heat,” Sam Dolnick describes “July’s historic heat wave” in New York. At no point do any of the writers mention the existence of global warming, or that it is caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

In the case of the Russian heat wave, we’re talking about a record, destructive, continent-wide climate event within the context of record destructive heat waves across the northern hemisphere — in North America, Asia, Africa, the Middle East, Europe — within the context of global warming during a solar minimum. And we’re not just seeing heat waves, but the full suite of climatic changes linked to the increase of heat trapped in the climate system, as the other stories demonstrate — more extreme precipitation, intensified droughts, shifts in seasons, fiercer storms, more frequent extreme floods.

But these are just reports on the ground — not mentioning the context of global warming is merely a sin of omission. The toxic reporting this week is from New York Times green editor Tom Zeller Jr, who kills the nation’s collective brain cells in the Week in Review piece, “Is It Hot in Here? Must Be Global Warming.”

In the article, Zeller accuses yours truly of the “absurd” crime of “invoking the local weather” to declare the “debate over climate change” over, comparing my mention of the record-breaking “global heat wave” as the Senate gave up on climate reform to Sen. Jim Inhofe’s (R-OK) warming-denial igloo, constructed during a record-breaking snow storm in Washington, D.C. this past winter.

Zeller’s comparison is based on the fatuously false premise that there is a legitimate “debate about climate change.” Inhofe tried to overturn a decades-long mountain of scientific understanding with an event entirely consistent with climate change — as I pointed out in this blog at the time. Zeller buries the truth in the sixteenth paragraph:

There is a not-insignificant caveat: Those pointing to hot weather as evidence of global warming are, in the broadest sense, more likely to be right.

If Zeller had wanted to enlighten his readership instead of feeding them manure, he could have written that scientists cannot explain the global accumulation of heat waves and changes in weather patterns that the planet is seeing without the man-made accumulation of greenhouse gases. As the years go by, we live in an increasingly manufactured climate. At first our suicidal path was unintentional, but now it’s by choice. The scientific understanding that fossil-fuel burning would change the climate has been well established for decades now — the real reason people like me are “more likely to be right.”

Update

Brad DeLong comments:

As I have said many times: the root problem is that the idea that his stories should inform rather than misinform readers about the world is simply not on Tom Zeller’s checklist of things that it should accomplish–or on the checklist of his editors.

Which is why the sooner that he leaves journalism the better, and we hope to see him replaced by people who think their job is to tell people the truth–so that they can truthfully sum up: and that’s the way it is.

Climate Progress

WattsUpWithThat hypes itself with most discredited web metric (hits!) and keeps smearing scientists while demanding others “dial back the rhetoric”

The NYT’s Virginia Heffernan now “regrets” being duped by Watts

As long as Anthony Watts keeps a website “hits” counter on his sidebar and keeps bragging that his hits are evidence of his blog’s popularity, that will provide the most irrefutable evidence of his innumeracy and his willful statistical deception.

One thing is very safe to say about any quantitative analysis you see from Anthony Watts:  It is, with high-probability, pure BS.  See, for instance, Wattergate: Tamino debunks “just plain wrong” Anthony Watts.

Worse, Watts has, perhaps more than any other leading anti-science blogger, viciously smeared climate scientists and others.  Yet in a post touting the most meaningless statistic on the web — his 50 millionth hit — he has the nerve to write, “I’m really growing tired of the vociferous and voluminous name calling and people bashing, on both sides. It’s palpable.”  What’s palpable is his hypocrisy.

On Memorial Day, for instance, Watts directly questioned the patriotism of both Tamino and Rabett (see “Peak readership for anti-science blogs?“) leading Tamino to write, “This just might be the most loathsome thing Watts has yet done with his blog.”

Watts also keeps reposting the disinformation of The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, even though  TVMOB is the leading purveyor of outright hate speech among the disinformers (see Lord Monckton repeats and expands on his charge that those who embrace climate science are “Hitler youth” and fascists).  Since he reposted TVMOB a number of times last month alone, one can only assume he fully supports TVMOB’s methods.  Indeed, after Prof. John Abraham eviscerated TVMOB in a must-see video, Watts reposted a shameless effort by TVMOB to “censor” Abraham, as Skeptical Science noted.  Deltoid put it this way: “Monckton, supported by Anthony Watts, is trying to suppress Abraham’s presentation. Over at Watts Up with That? Monckton defames Abraham and asks for help in suppressing Abraham’s speech.”

But this is standard operating procedure for Watts.

Read more

Yglesias

Intellectual Property and Waste

Intellectual property has some upsides, but it also has serious downsides. Unfortunately, since those downsides usually take the form of invisible “deadweight loss” discussion of intellectual property issues tends to neglect them. But IOZ offers us a striking concrete physical manifestation of the waste involved as Stephanie Clifford of the New York Times reports on the government of Australia destroying perfectly good apparel on the grounds that it’s counterfeit:

01KNOCKOFF2-popup 1

There are plenty of people in the world who could use a pair of boots.

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