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Justice

CNN POLL: 52% Believe Gays And Lesbians Should Have Constitutional Right To Marry

A week after U.S. District Chief Judge Vaughn Walker ruled that denying gays and lesbians the right to marry violated the Due Process and Equal Protection clauses of the U.S. Constitution, a new CNN Opinion Research Poll finds that while a majority of Americans don’t believe that gay couples have a constitutional right to marry, most (52%) think that they should:

CnnPollGay

An increasing number of polls have shown that number of Americans who support marriage equality, know and respect gay people is rising and several surveys have found that were the vote held today, Californians would not have approved Proposition 8. In fact, according to a recent Public Religion Research Institute survey, one-in-four Californians report that their views on rights for gay and lesbian people has become more supportive over the last five years — compared to only 8% who say they have become more opposed and a majority — and 51%, said they would vote to allow gay and lesbian couples to marry.

But of course as Walker argued in his Prop 8 ruling, since the Supreme Court has found marriage to be a “fundamental right,” it already exists (for all persons) within the constitution. The growing public acceptance of same-sex marriage, moreover, is significant, but not determinative. “Plaintiffs do not seek recognition of a new right,” he wrote. “To characterize plaintiffs’ objective as ‘the right to same-sex marriage’ would suggest that plaintiffs seek something different from what opposite-sex couples across the state enjoy —— namely, marriage. Rather, plaintiffs ask California to recognize their relationships for what they are: marriages.”

“That the majority of California voters supported Proposition 8 is irrelevant, as ‘fundamental rights may not be submitted to [a] vote; they depend on the outcome of no elections,’” he added.

Politics

Huckabee: It’s Good For America If Young Undocumented Immigrants Go To College And Become Citizens

Today, NPR’s On Point posted its interview with former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, in which he was asked about a bill he supported in 2005 that would have provided undocumented immigrants who met certain requirements with state-sponsored scholarships.

In response, Huckabee stood by his position and perhaps, albeit unintentionally, made a strong case for why Congress should move to approve the Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors (DREAM) Act, which would grant young, undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. by their parents and have lived in the U.S. for most of their lives with a path to legalization. In his interview, Huckabee argued that denying bright, young undocumented immigrants access to higher education doesn’t just wrongfully punish children, it’s also bad for taxpayers and America as a whole:

HUCKABEE: When a kid comes to his country, and he’s four years old and he had no choice in it — his parents came illegally. He still, because he is in this state, it’s the state’s responsibility – in fact, it is the state’s legal mandate – to make sure that child is in school. So let’s say that kid goes to school. That kid is in our school from kindergarten through the 12th grade. He graduates as valedictorian because he’s a smart kid and he works his rear end off and he becomes the valedictorian of the school. The question is: Is he better off going to college and becoming a neurosurgeon or a banker or whatever he might become, and becoming a taxpayer, and in the process having to apply for and achieve citizenship, or should we make him pick tomatoes? I think it’s better if he goes to college and becomes a citizen.

So, I did support a bill in my state, and I would support it today. I don’t want anyone to think I’ve backed away from it – that you do not punish a child for something the parent did. And if in fact the provision in the law says that in order to obtain the scholarship, you have to be in the process of applying for citizenship and becoming legal, then I’d rather have that kid a neurosurgeon than a tomato picker. I’d rather him be a taxpayer than a tax taker. And for that I offer no apology.

Listen here:

Huckabee’s answer is significant because it’s a break from many other Republicans, such as Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who claims to oppose the DREAM Act for “humanitarian reasons.”

Perhaps Huckabee had a conversation with his action star confidante, Chuck Norris. Last November, Norris laid out his own solution to the nation’s immigration problem when he proposed giving young, bright students “a work-permit for two years, and for two years — if they maintain their law-abiding status — then give them a permanent worker permit. And in three years after that, let them apply for their US citizenship.” At the time, Norris stated, “Oh, I think Mike [Huckabee] would go for this.”

On the 14th amendment, Huckabee noted that the Supreme Court has affirmed, several times, that those who are born here are automatically U.S. citizens — regardless of their parents’ immigration status. Huckabee also said that he doesn’t believe the Constitution should be changed to repeal automatic citizenship, stating, “I don’t think it’s even possible.”

Climate Progress

Unprecedented warming in Lake Tanganyika and its impact on humanity

Lake Tanganyika lake surface temperature[

This post by physicist John Cook was first published in Skeptical Science. The figure is surface temperature from Lake Tanganyika paleorecord for the past 1,500 years. Orange shading is 95% error bars.

Lake Tanganyika, in East Africa, is the second largest lake in the world (by volume). The lake supports a prodigious sardine fishery which provides a major source of animal protein for the region as well as employment for around 1 million people. Direct observations over past 90 years find that Lake Tanganyika has warmed significantly. At the same time, there’s been a drop in primary productivity in the lake impacting sardine populations. To further explore this matter, geologists took lake cores to determine the lake’s surface temperature back to 500 AD (Tierney 2010). They found that warming in the last century is unprecedented over the last 1500 years.

Read more

Climate Progress

Climate Experts Agree: Global Warming Caused Russian Heat Wave

Russia

As Russia chokes from a heat wave of unprecedented ferocity, president Dmitry Medvedev has strengthened his call for the world’s leaders to take action to fight global warming pollution. The scientific community has warned for decades that burning coal and oil without limit would intensify heat waves, droughts, and floods. Now that the planet is at its hottest in recorded history, freak climate disasters are arriving with increasing frequency. Some scientists are now stating the obvious: Russia’s heat wave simply would not have happened without the influence of fossil fuel pollution on our atmosphere. University of Texas climate scientist Michael Tobis is “hazarding a guess” that “the Russian heat wave of 2010 is the first disaster unequivocally attributable to anthropogenic climate change”:

But right now I feel like hazarding a guess. As far as I understand, nothing like this has happened before in Moscow. . . . The formerly remarkable heat wave of 2001, then, is “the sort of thing we’ll see more of” with global warming. But it may turn out reasonable, in the end, to say “the Russian heat wave of 2010 is the first disaster unequivocally attributable to anthropogenic climate change.”

Meteorologist Rob Carver, the Research and Development Scientist for Weather Underground, agrees. Using a statistical analysis of historical temperature records, Dr. Carver estimates that the likelihood of Moscow’s 100-degree record on July 29 is on the order of once per thousand years, or even less than once every 15,000 years — in other words, a vanishingly small probability. However, those tiny odds are based on the assumption that the long-term climate is stable, an assumption that is no longer true.

Like Dr. Tobis, Carver believes that manmade global warming has fundamentally altered weather patterns to produce the killer Russian heat wave. “Without contributions from anthropogenic climate change,” Carver said in an email interview with the Wonk Room, “I don’t think this event would have reached such extremes or even happened at all”:

I agree with Michael Tobis’s take at Only In It For the Gold that something systematic has changed to alter the global circulation and you’ll need a coupled atmosphere/ocean global model to understand what’s going on. My hunch is that a warming Arctic combined with sea-surface-temperature teleconnections altered the global circulation such that a blocking ridge formed over western Russia leading to the unprecedented drought/heat wave conditions. Without contributions from anthropogenic climate change, I don’t think this event would have reached such extremes or even happened at all. (You may quote me on that.)

Just as the Russian heat wave is fueled by global warming, so is the rest of the world’s killer climate. World-renowned climatologist Kevin Trenberth explained in an interview with Wired’s Brandon Keim that the Eurasian heat wave is part of the even larger circulation pattern that has produced the catastrophic southeast Asia monsoon:

The two things are connected on a very large scale, through what we call an overturning or monsoonal circulation. There is a monsoon where upwards motion is being fed by the very moist air that’s going onshore, and there are exceptionally heavy rains. That drives rising air. That air has to come down somewhere. Some of it comes down over the north.

Dr. Rob Carver’s analysis of the statistical likelihood of the Moscow heatwave: Read more

Education

Perry Calls Congress’ Insistence That He Spend Federal Education Money On Education An ‘Injustice’

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) made a big show a few months ago of refusing to apply for the Obama administration’s Race to the Top Program, which provides competitive grants to states for implementing education reforms. Perry falsely claimed that it was some sort of nationalization of the education system, saying “this administration’s attempt to bait states into adopting national standards is an effort to undermine states’ authority to determine how their students are educated.”

Since then, however, Perry has made it very clear that he’s happy to accept federal education funding, so long as he can use it however he likes. Case in point, the state aid bill that passed yesterday includes $10 billion in money to prevent teacher layoffs — including $800 million for Texas — but comes with the stipulation that Texas must commit to maintaining its current level of education funding in order to qualify for the additional money.

The reason for making the grant conditional was good, as Texas pocketed the education money that it received from the Recovery Act (i.e. the stimulus package), but then cut its education budget by the same amount and put the money into a Rainy Day Fund, so there was no additional money for schools. “We didn’t send that federal aid for education to Texas to plug a mismanaged state budget. We sent it to help our schoolchildren,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX).

Perry, however, is not taking the conditions imposed very well:

It is unfortunate that Washington continues to play partisan games with Texans’ tax dollars and the very future of our children. Texas will not surrender to Washington’s one-size-fits-all, deficit-spending mindset or let Washington do to the Texas budget what they have done to the federal budget. We’ll continue to work with state leaders, including the attorney general, to fight this injustice.

So Perry is going to fight Washington’s “deficit-spending mindset” by advocating that Washington give money to the states with no regard for how it’s going to be used?

Leaving aside the legal arguments, Perry’s essentially saying that he should be given a slush fund from the federal government, and that Congress should allow money meant to save nearly 13,400 jobs in the Texas education system to be shuffled around to wherever he deems appropriate. In a signal of how fed up the Texas education establishment is with Perry, the conditions placed on the money were “endorsed by the Texas Association of School Boards and other statewide educator groups.”

When he initially made hay of rejecting stimulus money for extended unemployment benefits, Perry said, “we can take care of ourselves. And we do not need any more strings from Washington attached to programs.” I think we can now safely interpret that as meaning he wants the money, but to use however he’d like.

Alyssa

NBC’s Big "Event"

Banking on the success of TV shows like Lost,  NBC is debuting The Event on September 20. The premise is a little fuzzy: network execs haven’t revealed much about the show since debuting it at Comic-Con earlier this summer. Here’s what we do know: during an investigation of his fiancee’s disappearance, a man discovers what could be a massive cover-up. Not a lot to go on, but that short description leaves a lot of room to explore different plot devices.

Still, I can’t help but thinking The Event looks like another big budget conspiracy series that will start strong and fizzle halfway through the season. Where shows like Lost succeeded in offering answers along with more and larger questions, shows like Flashfoward and Heroes got off on its on mysteries without satisfying the audience. The cast (including Blair Underwood and Jason Ritter) promises potential–but “Flashforward” and “Heroes” had great casts, too. And NBC doesn’t have a very strong lineup this fall–so if “The Event” crashes, their season could end up looking mighty shaky.

But I’ll watch–if only to find out if the first episode lives up to the hype. Sometimes a simple premise can be developed into an intricate puzzle…and sometimes, it flops. I’m hoping for the former.

Yglesias

Endgame

Hot, hot summer in hell:

— Jonathan Alter says Pelosi and Boehner should debate before the midterms.

— College won’t get more affordable until we create incentives for schools to stop hiking tuition.

— My address earns a perfect 100 on WalkScore.

— 8 percent of babies born in the United States have at least one undocumented parent.

— Legal immigration helps Social Security’s finances but illegal immigration helps even more.

— Conservatives are killing their future by pissing off Hispanics.

August in DC weather makes me think of “Aerobicide”

Politics

After Endorsing Using Unspent Stimulus, Pence Dismisses It As Moving Money From One ‘Credit Card’ To ‘Another’

For months, Republicans have advocated using the non-existent hundreds of billions of dollars in unspent stimulus funds when they don’t have any other ideas about how to pay for things. But yesterday, contradicting himself and his colleagues, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), dismissed this very idea as merely shifting debt around.

Earlier that day, the House passed a $26 billion state aid bill into law that will help states avoid laying off teacher, firefighters, and other public employees. The cost of the bill was entirely offset by closing tax loopholes for multinational corporations, and by the early termination of extra food stamp programs funded by the stimulus.

Nonetheless, Pence attacked the bill for supposedly not being “paid for,” claiming that using stimulus funds to pay for it was merely “borrowing from one credit card of the federal government to [give to] another”:

PENCE: Probably one of the most offensive things about this $26 billion bailout is that essentially we’re putting off the hard choices that state governments need to be making right now by essentially borrowing from one credit card of the federal government to another. You know, I think one of the big misstatements about this bill today is that it is so called paid for, that is fiscally irresponsible [sic]. Essentially they have taken what we had on the credit card for the stimulus and moved it over here to another credit card. And the American people aren’t fooled by this, Larry. More of the same failed economic policies of the last year and half.

Watch it:

By categorically dismissing the merits of using unspent stimulus money, Pence is rejecting a key Republican talking point about how to pay for government programs without raising taxes. Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said Friday that he would “absolutely advocate” for using unspent stimulus funds to make a “down payment on a longterm budget plan,” while numerous Republicans, such as Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), and Florida GOP Senate candidate Marco Rubio have endorsed using unspent stimulus money to pay for extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, even though this would mean cutting middle class tax credits.

Pence himself, just three weeks ago on MSNBC, strongly advocated using unspent stimulus money to pay for extending unemployment benefits:

PENCE: I mean, the American people know the stimulus bill has utterly failed. So, why don‘t we take $34 billion out of the stimulus funds that hasn‘t been spent and use that to pay to help Americans who are the victims of these—the failed policies of this and frankly the previous administration? … Take the unspent stimulus funds, $34 billion, provide that in unemployment benefits to Americans that are hurting.

Meanwhile, Pence is flat our wrong that the state aid bill isn’t paid for. According the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, the bill actually decreases the deficit by $1.37 billion dollars over ten years.

Justice

Center For Military Readiness Suggests Its Own DADT Poll May Be Biased

The Center For Military Readiness (CMR) has released a survey on Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell that contradicts the existing data on whether or not Americans support repealing the ban against gays and lesbians in the military. In contrast to other polls which have found that some 78% of voters think openly gay or homosexual should “be allowed to serve,” this poll concluded that “the largest group of respondents – 48 percent – opposes repealing the 1993 law. Forty-five percent favored repealing Don’t Ask.” Here are its main findings:

- When two statements from the 1993 law were presented verbatim, 92% agreed – including 77% strongly – that “the primary purpose of the armed forces is to prepare for and to prevail in combat should the need arise.”

- A plurality of voters wanted Congress to give deference to the four chiefs of staff of the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps.

- Likely voters opposed the imposition of career penalties on military personnel and chaplains who do not support homosexuality in the military.

This afternoon, I asked Tommy Sears, executive director of CMR about why his results were so different from other, more mainstream findings. Our 15 minute conversation only reaffirmed the notion that the poll was results determinative, designed to confuse Senators about the state of public opinion as they prepare to vote for the Defense Authorization bill.

For instance, Sears admitted that the group chose to frame the question about support for DADT in terms of the status quo (i.e. do you support changing the policy vs. are you okay with gays serving openly in the military) to counter what he described as “a pre-orchestrated campaign on the part of advocacy groups and media outlets over the last 17 years.” Sears argued that these groups have successfully confused voters, so that “people probably have been working under the assumption that homosexuals are eligible for the military and they are not.” Working to unravel these assumptions, the group asked voters if they would support changing the existing policy (seemingly) after the questions about the “primary purpose of the armed force,” penalties for those who disagree, and issue priority, thus creating an order bias against ending the ban and suggesting that the status quo would advance the needs of the institution.

“I think the questions are pretty straight forward and speak for themselves,” Sears said repeatedly when I asked him about obvious bias in the “deference” towards the military question. The group gave voters two options for who Congress should listen to when considering repealing DADT: 1) “advocates who want to overturn the law and to require the armed forces to accept professed lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender persons in the military” and 2) “to the four chiefs of staff of the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps, who have expressed concerns about overturning the current law.” But as Sears himself explained, to the unsuspecting voter, the “four chiefs” detail is too nuanced (option 1 also ignores the fact that gays and lesbians are already serving in the ranks and that the regulations surrounding transgender people would reamin in place). The real choice is between “whether gay activists should be the deciding factor or military leadership.” This way, the survey purposely omits the fact that prominent military leaders — like Secretary of State Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen — favor repealing the ban and presents the military as monolithically supportive of the status quo. “There is a difference of opinion among the military leadership at this time, certainly between Admiral Mullen and the Chiefs, I certainly concede that,” he told me.

Still, the most troubling result found that “52% majority of respondents opposed career penalties that would discriminate against persons who do not support homosexuality in the military.” This question seemed particularly manipulative, since the idea of punishing individuals who oppose gay people has been used as a straw man to generate fear among the electorate and lacked a rational basis. I asked Sears about the probability of instituting the policy. “I have as yet to hear anyone in the government state that position and we would certainly take a strong position against that as an organization,” he admitted. “But what’s being proposed by advocates of repeal is that sort of policy.”

Despite his concessions, Sears still stood by the impartiality of his survey. “We’re not leading people anywhere,” he told me. “The questions were specifically constructed out of language that is in the law and using the same language that advocates of repeal of the law have used in their own arguments and we got the results we got.”

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