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Alyssa

Rubicon: The long hello

I’m finally getting around to watching the first episode of Rubicon. From what I can understand, super duper secret agency analyst Will Travers is a dedicated but conflicted widower who lost his wife and daughter during the 9/11 attacks. His boss–also his father-in-law–David, urges Will to leave the agency just before being killed in a train crash. And also, some billionaire kills himself, and it might have something to do with a crossword that shows up in several newspapers…

…That’s a lot of plot for a pilot. And it might work if the first ten minutes didn’t move so slowly. We’re introduced to the characters–but instead of neat exposition, we get long scenes of Will, thinking hard and being forlorn. Once the pace finally does pick up, the clues tangle with each other instead of weaving a story. I’ll watch the next episodes on DVR–but only to see if those tangles smooth out or turn into impossible knots.

For a show with such an ambitious scope, timing will be everything. Rubicon needs some adjustments if it’s going to attract and keep viewers.

Politics

Lungren Praises Ryan’s Budget Plan Privatizing Social Security As ‘The Best,’ But Hesitates To Endorse It

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), the ranking member of the Budget Committee and incoming chairman if Republicans capture the House in November, has a budget plan called “America’s Roadmap.” Right-wing pundits have applauded the plan, calling it “bold,” but reporters have noted that few Republicans have been willing to go on the record and actually cosponsor the legislation.

Yesterday at a town hall in Carmichael, California, a constituent got up and told Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA) that she had visited the America’s Roadmap website after Lungren had told her at a previous town hall to visit it to see how Republicans would operate differently than the current Congress. She said she was unimpressed, and, as someone who “watches Fox News all day,” she wanted to see Tea Party principles of eliminating “almost everything” the federal government does. Lungren largely sidestepped her comment, and told the audience that he would promote national defense but cut spending for bicycle trails. After the town hall, ThinkProgress approached Lungren — who has not cosponsored Ryan’s budget — for clarification:

TP: Well, what about the Roadmap?

LUNGREN: The Paul Ryan Roadmap is, that is the best long term look at trying to deal with our fiscal insanity right now that anybody has done. But that doesn’t mean I would sign on to everything. Paul Ryan would probably look for some changes. But no one else has had the courage to try to come forward with a comprehensive approach, that’s what I said.

TP: But when you talk about “courage,” you haven’t cosponsored the Roadmap even though you’re endorsing it now. Would you endorse it before the election and cosponsor the bill?

LUNGREN: I don’t know.

Watch it:

Lungren tried to remain coy about many of his policy positions. Asked by another person at the town hall if he would sign onto a bill to repeal the Wall Street reform law passed by Congress earlier this year, he said he would “consider” it.

There is a reason why Republicans have tried to hide their support for the Ryan budget. The budget plan privatizes Social Security, creates a privatized-style voucher system for Medicare, and freezes nonsecurity discretionary spending from 2010-2019. As the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities notes, the Ryan budget would not even balance the budget or seriously reduce the national debt. It would, however, cut benefits for generations of elderly Americans and place millions into poverty.

Alyssa

Literary Inheritance

I just started reading the mystery novel The Inheritance by Simon Tolkien. Yes, Tolkien, as in J.R.R. This is a grandson, and his second middle name is Reuel too. He’s the son of Christopher, who edited the original Tolkien’s posthumous work, and is reportedly estranged from his father because of his (Simon’s) support for the Lord of the Rings films. And now he’s writing novels.

Publishing under the same name as a famous parent or grandparent may be easier in some ways – having a name like Tolkien can presumably open some doors – but also takes a certain amount of courage, as literary talent is not necessarily inherited, but the pressure and expectations are there regardless. Stephen King’s son Joe publishes as Joe Hill, which takes some of the pressure off, but his son Owen wrote a book under Owen King. Both of mystery writer Jesse Kellerman’s parents (Faye and Jonathan) write in his genre, but that hasn’t seemed to faze him. And then there’s Mary Higgins Clark: her daughter Carol Higgins Clark is a successful mystery novelist, and so is her former daughter-in-law Mary Jane Clark, whose books are often designed to look eerily like Higgins Clark’s own. (Gossip in the bookselling world says that this is not a coincidence.)

I’m not far enough into The Inheritance yet to know what the title means in the context of the plot, but I can’t imagine that Tolkien and his publishers didn’t realize that the title could also be read as a tongue-in-cheek reference to the author’s ambiguous literary inheritance of name and reputation. And I must admit that I picked the book up at the library partially to find out if he was related to the Tolkien. Fair enough. If you’re going to be held up to the standards set by your famous grandfather, you might as well use his name to get me to read your book.

Security

Clinton Calls Out GOP Obstruction For Putting ‘Our National Security At Risk’

clinton-startYesterday, Secretary Clinton called out the Senate GOP on their efforts to obstruct or delay the New START treaty. She noted that this obstructionist effort has real national security consequences:

This is a critical point. Opposing ratification means opposing the inspections that provide us a vital window into Russia’s arsenal… when the Senate returns, they must act, because our national security is at risk. There is an urgency to ratify this treaty because we currently lack verification measures with Russia which only hurts our national security interests. Our ability to know and understand changes in Russia’s nuclear arsenal will erode without the treaty. As time passes, uncertainty will increase. With uncertainty comes unpredictability, which, when you’re dealing with nuclear weapons, is absolutely a problem that must be addressed. Ratifying the new START treaty will prevent that outcome.

If Senate Republicans are concerned about Russian intentions, as they claim, then they should vote for — not against — this treaty. This is because without a New START treaty in place our military will have no idea what the Russians are doing with their nuclear arsenal. Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association notes that:

For 250 days since START I expired there has been no verification system in place… Until New START is approved by the Senate, the United States will rapidly lose insight into Russia’s strategic nuclear forces, forcing both sides to engage in more costly force modernization and hedging strategies.

This loss of intelligence and confidence is critical. With both the US and Russia having nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert and able to destroy all major cities and kill millions of people in 30 minutes, it is an extremely bad idea to have a situation in which both sides become uncertain about the nuclear intentions of the other. On top of that it is also clear that relations with Russia will plummet if START is not ratified. The reset will be collapse and as both militaries lose confidence in their intelligence of the other, skepticism about intentions and motives will only increase. If the GOP kills new START it will quite likely put US-Russia relations on an increasingly dangerous downward spiral.

We don’t worry about nuclear war very much anymore, but should this treaty fail to be ratified the chances of the unthinkable happening — intentionally or accidentally — increase. Now this doesn’t mean that nuclear war is inevitable or even likely. But extremely unlikely events happen all the time. No one would have predicted that the biggest story of the year would be a massive oil spill in the Gulf. This point clearly comes across in the new documentary film Countdown to Zero:

Now it says something about the myopic recklessness of Senators like Mitch McConnell, Jon Kyl, and Bob Corker who are willing to endanger nuclear stability and US national security just to either deny President Obama a “victory” or to get more nuclear pork for their home state.

Politics

Health insurers are lobbying to weaken regulations, despite record profits.

With the economy in recession and a growing number of Americans going without health insurance coverage, the big health insurers are still posting impressive profits. Wellpoint, the nation’s largest insurer by membership, “reported a 4% increase in profit for the second quarter that helped generate earnings of $1.6 billion since the beginning of the year – a 26% increase over the same period in 2009,″ and Aetna said its “second-quarter profits rose 42 percent, with a net income of $491 million, compared with $346.6 million for the same quarter last year.” Earlier this week, Health Care for American Now! (HCAN) released a report which found that CEOs from the 10 largest for-profit health insurance companies “collected pay of $228.1 million, up from $85.5 million in 2008.” As a group, insurance CEOs saw a “167 percent raise,” while “Americans saw their averages wages increase by about 2 percent.” Insurers are spending less on health care and seeing higher profits:

HCANTable

These numbers contradict insurers’ claim that stringent regulations would jeopardize the industry and, as the Wonk Room argues, should embolden regulators to impose tough consumer protections.

Yglesias

Endgame

Some things will always be great:

— Young people suffering devastatingly high unemployment.

— Nets seem to be the big winners in today’s four-team trade.

— Paul Ryan’s fans whine away that “Washington” is being mean to him, while in the real world the Beltway can’t slobber enough.

— Art museums need to lend more.

— Against the “dual mandate”.

I didn’t realize Art Brut released an album last summer until today. Here’s “DC Comics and Chocolate Milkshakes”

Climate Progress

Smoggy Senators Protest EPA Plan To Save Thousands Of Children’s Lives

In a startling act of fealty to polluter interests, several senators are fighting scientifically guided smog limits that would save thousands of lives a year. Under the guidance of administrator Lisa Jackson, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is working to clean up one of George W. Bush’s most blatant acts of ignoring science and disregarding the law, when he personally overruled the unanimous recommendations of EPA’s Clean Air Scientific Advisory Committee for an ozone limit no higher than 70 ppb, setting instead an arbitrary and capricious standard of 75 ppb. Jackson intends to instead follow the law by setting a 60-70 ppb standard. However, a group of Democratic and Republican senators led by retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) are trying to preserve Bush’s toxic legacy on behalf of the coal and oil industries in their states, complaining to Jackson that her plan “will have a significant negative impact on our states’ workers and families”:

We believe that changing the rules at this time will have a significant negative impact on our states’ workers and families and will compound the hardship that many are now facing in these difficult economic times.

The pro-smog letter was also signed by Sens. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Claire McCaskill (D-MO), Richard Lugar (R-IN), Kit Bond (R-MO) and David Vitter (R-LA).

Remarkably, the senators do not seem cognizant of Bush’s well-reported act of malfeasance, complaining that “the Agency has not presented new data or evidence to justify its course of action”:

Instead, outside of the regular five-year review process, EPA is choosing to interpret the same basic body of information that existed in 2008 and reach a different conclusion. . .

Given the absence of new or different scientific data, EPA should maintain the current ozone standards, which EPA finalized only two years ago and concluded were adequately protective of public health and welfare with an adequate of safety [sic].

Actually the conclusion EPA staff and scientists drew in 2008, based on the scientific evidence that “ozone has a direct impact on rates of heart and respiratory disease and resulting premature deaths,” was that a standard no higher than 70 ppb was needed. The agency calculated that a standard of 65 ppb “would avoid 3,000 to 9,200 deaths annually,” two to three times more than a 75 ppb standard. The difference is that George W. Bush is no longer the decider.

The senators also claim that the previous smog standards harmed the economy:

We note that many states are only recently coming into attainment with the 1997, 0.084 ppm ozone standard. Attaining that standard required costly mandates on businesses, which greatly restricted the ability of local communities to grow their economies. . .

While we believe we can and should continue to improve our environment, we have become increasingly concerned that the Agency’s environmental policies are being advanced to the detriment of the people they are intended to protect. That is, these policies are impacting our standard of living by drastically increasing energy costs and decreasing the ability of our states to create jobs, foster entrepreneurship, and give manufacturers the ability to compete in the global marketplace.

The claim that attainment with the 1997 standard “greatly restricted the ability of local communities to grow their economies” is without evidence. In fact, the only noticeable effect of the 1997 standards on the economy was to dramatically cut the regulated pollution, making millions of children healthier, even as the economy steadily grew, as this EPA chart shows:

GDP vs emissions

Finally, the senators claim — again without evidence — that “non-attainment” penalties under the Clean Air Act “undermine the economic viability of communities within our states.” In fact, “there is no clear evidence that non-attainment designations or progress in addressing air quality prevent areas from growing,” EPA officials informed the Wonk Room. Areas such as Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth and many others have been non-attainment for years and have had very strong growth rates. The EPA tells the Wonk Room:

We see no significant differences in the trend of employment, wages and number of establishments between attainment and non-attainment areas.

There is clear evidence, however, that this effort to ensure that more children have asthma attacks comes on behalf of coal and oil corporations in the senators’ states. Peabody Energy, the “world’s leading coal company,” is based in Missouri and has mines in Indiana, and is a top campaign contributor to McCaskill, Bond, Lugar and Bayh. Murray Energy, the “largest privately owned coal company in America,” is based in Voinovich‘s state. Landrieu and Vitter have collected a combined $1.5 million from the pollution industry, whose refineries and power plants keep killing children and keep sending these senators back to Washington.

Politics

Right-wing columnist calls Prop. 8 judge a ‘false god,’ compares same-sex marriage to slavery.

cal-thomasLast week, U.S. District Court Judge Vaughn Walker struck down California’s Proposition 8, which prohibited same-sex couples from marrying in the state. Today, Walker lifted the stay on his decision, announcing that it will go into effect next week unless the appeals court issues a stay. Though the Republican response has been muted, some GOP lawmakers and a number of right-wing activists have been condemning both last week’s ruling and Judge Walker himself. Today, nationally-syndicated conservative Washington Examiner columnist Cal Thomas took the attacks to an entirely new level:

The decision by a single, openly gay federal judge to strike down the will of 7 million Californians, tradition dating back millennia (not to mention biblical commands, which the judge decided, in his capacity as a false god, to also invalidate) is judicial vigilantism equal to Roe v. Wade. [...]

Most great powers unravel from within before invading armies (or in America’s case, terrorists) conquer them. A preacher might develop a good sermon on how nations fare when they mock God.

No less a theological thinker than Abraham Lincoln concluded that our Civil War might have been God’s judgment for America’s tolerance of slavery. If that were so, why should “the Almighty,” as Lincoln frequently referred to God, stay His hand in the face of our celebration of same-sex marriage?

Despite Thomas’ outrageous remarks, polling from late July shows that a majority of Californians would vote to allow gay and lesbian couples to marry. Additionally, a CNN poll released yesterday finds that a majority of Americans believe that “gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to be married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid.” As Judge Walker wrote in his decision, “Proposition 8 fails to advance any rational basis in singling out gay men and lesbians for denial of a marriage license. Indeed, the evidence shows Proposition 8 does nothing more than enshrine in the California Constitution the notion that opposite-sex couples are superior to same-sex couples.” Today, Walker lifted the stay on his ruling, permitting same-sex marriages to resume in California. The decision will go into effect August 18th, allowing time for the Ninth Circuit Court to hear an appeal. (HT Andrew Sullivan)

Charlie Eisenhood

Yglesias

Household Income and Consumption

Why is consumption such an incredibly low share of GDP in China? Michael Pettis says it’s because household incomes are shrinking relative to the size of the economy:

Chinese households are happy to consume, but they own such a small share of total national income that their consumption is necessarily also a small share of national income. And just as the household share of national income has declined dramatically in the past decade, so has household consumption. This isn’t to say households are getting poorer. On the contrary, they are getting richer, but they are getting richer at a much slower speed than the country overall, which means their share of total income is declining.

The solution to this would be “to engineer a huge shift of state wealth to the household sector, say in a massive privatization program” which, as Pettis says, “will be politically difficult to do.” I suppose that one alternative way of doing this is that instead of having the PBOC use Chinese surpluses to buy American financial assets and prop the dollar up, they buy made in America consumer goods and then give the goods away to China’s citizens. That seems too wacky for policymakers to seriously consider, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a good idea.

Yglesias

The Price Level

One term that comes up when talking about monetary policy and economic stabilization that people may not be familiar with is the “price level.” What is this? Well, think of it this way—when you account for the difference in a nominal quantity and a “real” quantity what you’re accounting for is the change in the price level. So in 2005, US GDP was $12.64 trillion and by 2008 it was $14.37 trillion. That’s an increase of $1.73 trillion. But if you measure in chained 2005 dollars, the increase was only from $12.64 to $13.23—an increase of just $0.59 trillion. The rest of the increase wasn’t “real” it was just an increase in the price level.

The rate at which the price level increases is the inflation rate. If you have unusually little inflation for a few years, then unless you have some make-up years of unusually high inflation, the price level will stay permanently below trend. Similarly, if you have unusually high inflation for a few years then unless you have some make-up years of unusually low inflation, the price level will stay permanently below trend.

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