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Yglesias

Endgame

Still got the feeling:

— The City of Compton’s big comeback.

— Is long-term unemployment really declining?

— A pessimist manifesto (I actually regard this worldview as optimistic).

— Mark Kirk, deficit fraud.

— An individual mandate waiver in pursuit of a more socialistic alternative has always been Ron Wyden’s plan.

— I’d be more excited about this movie if the title were McPherson Square.

— DC has a lot of pathetically uncatchy Metro station names: “U Street / African-American Civil War Memorial / Cardozo,” anyone?

The worthy winner of top nineties track is “Nuthin But a ‘G’ Thang”.

Politics

Hagel Says GOP Is Not ‘Presenting Any Alternatives, Any New Options Or Any New Thinking’

noideas Former Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), the chairman of the Atlantic Council, recently sat down for an interview with the Washington Diplomat. In the interview, the former senator touched on a variety of topics, including what he feels is the need for the United States to “unwind” from the war in Afghanistan. Towards the end of the interview, Hagel says that while he has “no plans to renounce his membership in the party,” he finds that the Republican Party of which he is a part is not “presenting any new alternatives, any new options, or any new thinking“:

“I don’t see them presenting any alternatives, any new options or any new thinking,” Hagel said. “If the Republicans get back in power, what are they going to do? There is no articulation. It’s just a ‘no no no, I’m against Obama because he’s a socialist and he’s taking America in the wrong direction.’ That’s certainly an opinion, but what about you, Mr. Republican? What would you do?”

In fact, leading Republicans like Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, and Peter King have proudly embraced the “no, no, no” agenda. Hagel told the interviewer that he remains confident that his party will once again rebuild itself. “The Republican Party will find a new center of gravity,” he said. “I think they’ll let this nonsense play out. It’s like a bad storm — it just has to go through.”

Yglesias

Government Efficiency Matters a Lot

(cc photo by takomabibelot)

(cc photo by takomabibelot)

Tad DeHaven today continues his bizarre crusade against more efficient provision of public services. He opens with a standard libertarian argument about how absent the profit motive, a public sector agency is unlikely to operate at maximal efficiency. This, however, is neither here nor there and then he offers this:

Therefore, the question of how efficiently government provides services is less important than deciding what services government should provide. For example, it matters little how quickly the USDA processes subsidy checks for farmers. More important is whether farmers should be receiving subsidy checks at all.

This is deeply confused. We can all agree, I think, that the government should provide the service of national security. But it would be ridiculous to think that the widespread consensus on this point constitutes a more important question than the minor issue of whether or not pursuing a grand strategy of perpetual global military domination is a reasonably efficient means of providing that service. If it’s actually true that such a strategy is integral to American security, then we’d darn well better pursue it. But if it’s not true, then we could use some massive policy changes.

Or consider the provision of subsidized rental housing to poor people. One way to do this is by having the government operate public housing in which poor people can live. Another way to do it is to have the government disburse housing vouchers to poor people that they can use to help with the rent. Now suppose switching to vouchers is much more efficient than public housing—that the same level of expenditures allows more people to house their families decently. Whether or not you think the government should be providing housing services, which option is chosen still has an important impact on human welfare.

Alternatively, consider something the government shouldn’t be doing—trying to brainwash teenagers into believing that having sex without being married is morally wrong. Evidence indicates that abstinence education programs don’t work, but I also see no reason to believe that persuading more people to abstain from sex before marriage would be beneficial. If the government developed a more effective brainwashing scheme that would be “more efficient” but bad.

Climate Progress

Captains log from the Chukchi Sea: “The water temperature is 7.5 degrees. If we werent sailing, it would be a great temperature for a swim!”

Position update 20.29 CEST: 69.78807 N, 168.32016 W – North of Point Hope. Water temperature: 9.0ËšC

Chukchi

Expedition Report:
From our position in the middle of the Chukchi Sea, the sea between the Russian autonomous area of Chukotka and Alaska, the 49th state of the USA, we can look back on a voyage through the Northeast Passage – or the Northern Sea Route, as they say in Russia.

It is obvious that the conditions met by the early explorers such as Vitus Bering, Fridtjof Nansen, Adolf Erik Nordenski¶ld and Roald Amundsen no longer exists. We passed through in a few weeks, while our predecessors were forced to overwinter once or even twice. Still, it is not an easy passage for any kind of boat or vessel. There is still ice, although not to the extent there used to be, but plenty to make conditions unpredictable for ships. In addition many of the seas you have to pass are very shallow. In the East Siberian Sea, the shipping lane is located 50 nautical miles off the coast, in order for there to be sufficient depth for bigger ships. Lights, buoys and nautical markings are scarce.

That’s from a blog posting by Thorleif Thorleifsson, captain of the “Northern Passage,” offering his “reflections” from the Chukchi Sea.   He notes in an update,”The water temperature is 7.5 degrees. If we weren’t sailing, it would be a great temperature for a swim!”  [He means degrees Celsius, of course.]  And that’s why the ice can keep melting even after the air temperature goes below freezing.

Here’s a video from the ship, with the caption, “In the dark of night, on the Chukchi Sea off Wrangel Island, three men steer the “Northern Passage” past ice floes and icebergs. Persistence and caution is demanded every moment of their journey!

Read more

Security

Citing No Data, Gary Bauer Claims Two-State Scenario ‘Rejected By Vast Majority Of Arab Muslims’

gary bauerLast week, the pro-Israel, pro-peace group J Street successfully shamed the neocon Emergency Committee for Israel (ECI) into finally endorsing a two-state solution, which they had previously refused to do.

In Politico today, however, ECI board member Gary Bauer shares his concerns with the two-state formula, noting that extremists oppose it. For some reason, he doesn’t note that some of those extremists are on the Israeli side, or that they’re lobbying Congress against two states right now.

“Apart from disagreements over what form a two-state solution would take,” Bauer writes, “there is the fundamental question of whether the Palestinians ultimately want to co-exist with a Jewish state“:

There are strong indications that the Palestinians envision a two-state solution only as a first step toward their final destination: one state ruled by an Arab Muslim majority.

Palestinian official Sufian Abu Zaida recently abandoned a two-state position. After Netanyahu’s two-state endorsement last summer, Abu Zaida mocked him, saying, “Do you think you are doing us a favor when you agree to two states? No favor at all. From my side, from the Palestinians’ side — let there be one state, not two.”

These and other statements have created skepticism among American Jews about the Palestinians’ intentions. A 2007 survey found that 82 percent of American Jews believed that “the goal of the Arabs is not the return of occupied territories but rather the destruction of Israel.”

Other polls show that the two-state scenario is rejected by the vast majority of Arab Muslims, especially youth. As Condoleezza Rice said in 2008, “Increasingly, the Palestinians who talk about a two-state solution are my age.”

You’ll notice that, apart from a 2007 survey of what American Jews “believe,” Bauer presents no actual data to support his assertion that Arab Muslims don’t support two states. And no, non-specified “other polls” plus “something Condoleezza Rice said in 2008″ do not equal “data.”

But here’s some: A July 2010 public opinion poll of the Arab world conducted by Shibley Telhami of the Brookings Institution found that 86% of respondents were “prepared for peace if Israel is willing to return all 1967 territories including East Jerusalem.”

telhami poll

While it’s unlikely that all of the 67 territories will be returned — it’s generally understood that the Palestinians will be compensated through land swaps — this data, at the very least, dispatches Bauer’s “Arab rejectionist” chimera.

Interestingly, while Bauer insists in his article that his concern is protecting “Israel as an independent Jewish state,” he says nothing about that state being democratic. Maybe someone should ask about that.

Yglesias

Needed: More Olive Gardens

Olive Garden Restaurant 1

Chuck Salter’s Fast Company article “Why America is Addicted to Olive Garden” neither explains why America is addicted to Olive Garden nor even establishes that American is, in fact, addicted to Olive Garden. It is, however, a really excellent profile of the company, Darden, that owns Olive Garden along with a few other restaurant chains.

To throw a couple of bold claims out there that probably nobody agrees with, brands, chains, standardization, and replication are some of the most underrated economic phenomena and single-establishment retail businesses among the most overrated. There’s an association between multiple-establishment restaurants and low quality, but I think that if you take a broad view you’ll see that this is both a contingent phenomenon and a waning trend. Darden’s own Capitol Grille chain is excellent and Olive Garden is better than you care to admit. Besides which, all the legitimately first-rate chefs are branding and franchising these days, they’re mostly just a bit hesitant to get entirely above-board about what they’re doing.

The point, however, is not to argue the merits of these restaurants but merely to observe that they’re successful. And in particular, they’re successful at exactly what our health care & university systems are terrible at, namely actually balancing cost and quality or even at times finding innovative ways to skimp on quality. I doubt anyone involved would try to convince you that the Olive Garden is the world’s greatest Italian restaurant. But the point of something like their “Culinary Institute of Tuscany” exercise is precisely to identify top-quality practices and then think if there’s some way to do something vaguely similar for radically less money. If you look at the trajectory of college tuition, it’s clear that we’re not going to be able to simultaneously stay on that pace and expand the number of people who go to college. But a college degree seems to be very valuable. If it were possible to provide even a fraction of that value to more people cheaply, we’d be making major progress.

Politics

GOP Candidate Ken Buck Falsely Blames Federal Government For Imaginary Decline in Schools

In a statement reminiscent of Nevada GOP Senate candidate Sharron Angle’s call to abolish the federal Department of Education, Colorado GOP Senate candidate Ken Buck falsely claimed at a Q&A session with College Republicans that American schools have declined since the 1950s because of increased federal involvement in education:

In the 1950s, we had the best schools in the world, and the United States government decided to, um, get more involved in federal education. Where are we now after all those years of federal involvement?  Are we better, or are we worse?  So what’s the federal government’s answer?  Well since we’ve made education worse, we’re gonna even get more involved.  And what’s gonna be the result?

Watch it:

First of all, Buck’s claim that American schools are worse now than they were in the 1950s is laughably wrong. In 1957, less than half of white Americans and fewer than one in five African-Americans graduated from high school. By 2002, however, almost nine in ten white children and eight in ten black children earned their diploma.  Likewise, college graduation rates more than tripled during the same time period for both racial groups.  Our country has a long way to go before we build the education system Americans deserve, but Buck is simply wrong to claim that American schools haven’t made massive strides since the 1950s.

More importantly, although Buck was probably referring to the federal Department of Education, which was created in 1980, when he attacked federal involvement in education. His blanket attack on federal education policy ignores the single most significant example of federal intervention in public schools:

the_problem_we_all_live_with

In the 1950s, much of America was an apartheid state. For millions of children, the black educational experience was a tale of crumbling buildings housing overcrowded classes taught by underqualified teachers who were paid a substandard salary.  Federal involvement broke this “airtight cage of poverty in the midst of an affluent society,” and Buck is wrong to ignore this history.

(HT: David Sirota)

Yglesias

If a Working Paper Falls in the Wilderness and a Journalist Hears About It, Is that Worse?

MemberRefresh

I appeared on a panel at the American Political Science Association annual meeting yesterday about journalism and political science and one thing that struck me (apart from the relative rarity of this kind of sneering condescension) was that political scientists’ description of the incentive structure of their own profession was kind of bizarre. As I heard it explained to me, it’s not merely that taking time to help inform a non-specialist audience about political science findings isn’t specifically rewarded, it’s positively punished. And not simply in the sense that doing less research and more publicizing is punished; I was told that holding research output constant, getting more publicity for your output would be harmful to a junior scholar’s career because it would feed an assumption of non-seriousness.

That’s pretty nuts. After all, the state legislators and rich donors who give money to universities are presumably sponsoring research because they think it’s potentially important for people to know the results of good research. Interestingly, economists really don’t seem to have this problem. Obviously, lots of economics research is done on obscure topics or written in a way that’s inaccessible or intended for an expert, professional audience. And the formal economy of academic promotion is similar in both fields. But economists seem to me to overwhelmingly take it for granted that the world would be a better place if more people were better-informed about economic theory and reasoning and that economists who succeed in informing people are doing something praiseworthy.

At any rate, I really think this attitude is bad for the world. There are lots and lots of people out there working in the field of trying to alter public policy. And there are many other people doing descriptive writing for an audience primarily composed of those trying to alter public policy. It would be much better for the world if those people had a better understanding of how the American political system operates, of how foreign political systems operate, of how the international system functions, and other key political science topics. It’s not that I expect “sending emails to bloggers” to become Priority #1 for anyone in the field, but surely if people manage to do good work and also to convey the essence of that work to non-specialists they shouldn’t be punished for it.

Economy

Deficit Fraud Kirk Proposes Tiny Spending Reduction That Would Be Swamped By His Massive Tax Cuts

When we last encountered Illinois’ Republican Senate candidate Mark Kirk, he was scaring farmers into thinking that they’re going to have to pay the estate tax, when it affects just 1.6 percent of farm estates. And Kirk isn’t any more concerned about the details when it comes to federal spending, if the “Five Top Policies to Control Spending” he released yesterday are any indication.

“In order to prevent a Greek tragedy right here in the U.S., we should take quick action on the emerging sovereign debt crisis and reduce government spending here at home,” Kirk says, hewing to the Greek theme that he favors. Kirk’s five ideas are: “Enact a line-item veto; End earmarks; Require a supermajority to spend beyond our means; Enact Senator Simon’s balanced budget amendment; and Reestablish the Grace Commission with special procedures to implement approved spending cuts.”

Progress Illinois referred to the plan as “Kirk’s vapid spending reforms.” Indeed, the plan shows that Kirk is either woefully uninformed about where the problems in the federal budget lie, or he’s not at all interested in actually addressing the deficit.

The line-item veto, as Progress Illinois noted, has not only been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, but would likely just lead to increased political horse-trading when it comes to spending, not any actual reductions. The exact balanced budget plan that Kirk mentions was defeated by the Senate in 1994, and even conservatives realize that preventing the federal government from ever running a deficit is “a stupid idea.” Calling for a balanced budget amendment is a political trick, not a serious budget proposal.

It’s unclear what Kirk’s proposal to “require a supermajority to spend beyond our means” would actually be in practice. And like any good politico, Kirk suggests a commission to make spending cuts, outsourcing Congress’ duties to some other body.

The only cut that Kirk explicitly identifies is to end earmarks, which, in total, amount to less than one percent of the federal budget (about $20 billion). Remember, Kirk wants to extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy and completely eliminate the estate tax, which together cost about $1.6 trillion over ten years. Against that, the paltry $20 billion he saves from eliminating earmarks is a drop in the bucket.

Like other Republican senate hopefuls, Kirk’s plan is long on rhetoric, but short on actual spending cuts, while flat-out ignoring the real long-term drivers of the deficit: giant tax cuts, health care spending, and the defense budget. But of course, the real trouble here is that balancing the budget on the spending side alone, while also enacting trillions in new tax breaks for the rich, would require absolutely draconian cuts to highly popular programs that many people depend upon. So it’s better to just not tell anyone what your plans are.

Alyssa

I’m Not a Gamer

But this post of Ta-Nehisi’s on Medal of Honor is well worth reading. I’ve always thought that part of the appeal of first-person shooters, certainly, and other games that involve fighting and adventurism, was the chance to feel more physically or societally powerful, but also more responsible, than one does in real life. Likewise, I found the Sims an extremely useful experiment in what it would be like to be an adult when I played for a while towards the end of college—I actually think the game played an interesting role in helping me figure out things I was and wasn’t ready for. I like the idea of turning games towards other thought games. It doesn’t particularly matter if they’re societally useful (at least to me). But it can’t hurt if they are.

On that note, have a great weekend, everybody. And get rockin’ on Perdido Street Station.

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