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Climate Progress

Newark Star Ledger Editorial Board — “Face facts: Climate change is unfolding as predicted”

“If the scientists are right, a lot of people are going to die as a result of climate change.”

As the world dawdles, this problem will grow worse, and the solution will have to be more drastic, more expensive and disruptive. For that, we will have the climate-change skeptics to thank.

The Newark Star Ledger‘s Editorial Board had a terrific piece Friday:  “Face facts: Climate change is unfolding as predicted.”

It’s so rare for any major newspaper to tell it like it is that I’m reprinting the whole thing:

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Yglesias

Top Nonscorers in the NBA

Everyone generally acknowledges that lots of things happen on the basketball court that help teams win besides scoring. But in practice, evaluation of players tends to turn heavily on PPG totals. Here’s Dave Berri’s list of players who make the biggest contributions—grabbing rebounds, avoiding turnovers, and using the shots they do take efficiently—without scoring tons of points:

winningwithoutscoring

Obviously the Miami Heat’s offseason moves have attracted the most attention. But the Los Angeles Lakers were a great team next year, and in Steve Blake and Matt Barnes they’ve acquires two guys who make big contributions without shooting frequently.

Yglesias

Modeling Likely House GOP Gains

Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien take a stab at it and come up with a likely net gain of 50 seats:

How many House seats will the Republicans gain in 2010? To answer this question, we have run 1,000 simulations of the 2010 House elections. The simulations are based on information from past elections going back to 1946. Our methodology replicates that for our ultimately successful forecast of the 2006 midterm. Two weeks before Election Day in 2006, we posted a prediction that the Democrats would gain 32 seats and recapture the House majority. The Democrats gained 30 seats in 2006. Our current forecast for 2010 shows that the Republicans are likely to regain the House majority.

Our preliminary 2010 forecast will appear (with other forecasts by political scientists) in the October issue of PS: Political Science. By our reckoning, the most likely scenario is a Republican majority in the neighborhood of 229 seats versus 206 for the Democrats for a 50-seat loss for the Democrats. Taking into account the uncertainty in our model, the Republicans have a 79% chance of winning the House.

In other words, a Republican majority is very likely and it will probably be a relatively narrow one.

Climate Progress

David Brooks: The Alternate History

The Democrats could be heading toward a defeat of historic proportions in November, but it is possible to imagine a scenario in which things might have turned out differently:

Since things on planet Earth, or, rather, Eaarth, aren’t going to so well, we’re seeing more people propose counterfactuals.

I don’t buy all of what conservative columnist David Brooks put forward in his NYT column, “The Alternate History” — the Democratic defeat is going to be grim, but unlikely to break historical records for mid-term elections — but the end is mostly dead on:

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Media

Attitudes and Media Coverage

Does media coverage of economic conditions have a substantial impact on public views of the economy? Maybe if the New York Times started saying the economy was great, consumer confidence would rise and the increased confidence would in fact create better conditions. Daniel Hopkins deems it unlikely:

frames3-thumb

Follow the blue line: Americans’ concern about the economy reliably grows during recessions and declines during expansions. But the key finding is in the relationship between the various trends. The tone of coverage in the Washington Post and the New York Times does not appear to systematically lead Americans’ economic perceptions, a point that formal statistical tests reinforce. If anything, the relationship is the reverse, with Americans’ economic attitudes shifting before we see similar shifts in print. These are only two newspapers, to be sure, but they are two prominent national newspapers. And they are commonly perceived (or derided) as influential. When viewed over the long-term, Americans appear to be responding to actual economic conditions—and not to the tone of these national newspapers.

It would be very useful to see more research in this area. Things like consumer confidence and expectations of inflation or NGDP growth play important roles in a lot of economic accounts of what’s going on, but I don’t think we know very much about where expectations or confidence comes from. It’s pretty unsatisfactory to just wave in the direction of “animal spirits” or “rational expectations” when there’s probably a real answer. Does network TV news matter in a different way from elite newspapers? Does business news matter?

Politics

GOP Control Of Federal Trial Courts Has Increased Since Obama Took Office

The AP’s Mark Sherman reports that GOP obstruction in the Senate has allowed Republicans to further entrench their control over the federal bench, even though a Democratic president is now naming judges:

A determined Republican stall campaign in the Senate has sidetracked so many of the men and women nominated by President Barack Obama for judgeships that he has put fewer people on the bench than any president since Richard Nixon at a similar point in his first term 40 years ago.

The delaying tactics have proved so successful, despite the Democrats’ substantial Senate majority, that fewer than half of Obama’s nominees have been confirmed and 102 out of 854 judgeships are vacant. [...]

When Bush left office, Republicans had appointed just under 60 percent of all federal judges. Twenty months later, the number has dipped only slightly to a shade under 59 percent, according to statistics compiled by the liberal Alliance for Justice. Because of retirements, the percentage of Republican-nominated district judges actually has gone up.

The data comparing Obama’s confirmation rates to those of recent past presidents is truly grim. In late July, a Center for American Progress issue brief analyzed the percent of each president’s nominees confirmed since Carter. For Obama to see the same percentage of his nominees confirmed as past presidents have seen, the Senate would need to more or less double its pace of confirmations:

noms 1

Yet, since July, the Senate confirmed only four additional judges, bringing Obama’s confirmation rate up to a lackluster 47%. President George W. Bush, by comparison, had twice as many judges confirmed during the second August of his presidency.

There is still time, however, to reverse this trend.  In the final months of 2002, the Senate confirmed 29 of Bush’s judges — 20 of whom were confirmed during lame duck. And these judges were confirmed at such a speedy rate despite the fact that the Senate was controlled by Democrats and Bush is a Republican.

Now it’s time for Obama’s judges to be confirmed at a similarly rapid rate. Allowing the GOP to increase its stranglehold on many federal courts even when a Democrat is in the White House doesn’t just thwart democracy, it has terrible consequences for the American people.

Thanks to a Republican district judge’s decision to kill federal funding of embryonic stem cell research, for example, millions of dollars of potentially lifesaving research could be irretrievably lost, even if that judge’s decision is eventually reversed on appeal. Likewise, if the GOP succeeds in holding judgeships open, only to fill those seats with “tenther” judges the next time a Republican is in the White House, they could stack the courts with judges who think that everything from the Affordable Care Act to Social Security and Medicare is unconstitutional.

Politics

Jindal won’t endorse scandal-plagued Vitter.

vitterWhile the latest polls indicate Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) has a commanding lead on his Democratic opponent Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA), the top Republican in the state — Gov. Bobby Jindal — still refuses to give the scandal-plauged incumbent Senator his endorsement:

“Voters can make up their own minds,” Jindal said.

The Republican governor said he does not get involved in federal races.

However, Jindal was a special guest at a 2008 fundraiser for Baton Rouge Rep. Bill Cassidy’s campaign.

The governor also endorsed Woody Jenkins in his failed bid for Congress.

Last week, the Louisiana Democratic Party produced a five-and-a-half minute video documenting Vitter’s prostitution scandals. (HT: Political Wire)

Yglesias

Caffeine Content of Diet Coke

I’m one of those Diet Coke people, and neither Coke Zero nor even normal Coke really does it for me. Turns out the reason is plausibly just that Diet Coke contains a much higher dose of an addictive substance:

dietcoke

And now you know.

Security

Update On Progress — And Challenges — In Developing An Afghan Security Force

Our guest blogger is LTG William B. Caldwell, IV, who is serving as the Commander of the NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan.

AAFfinalDespite significant challenges, progress is being made in Afghanistan. One of the cornerstones of the strategy employed to secure and stabilize the country is the development of the Afghan National Security Force, a task charged to the NATO Training Mission. Development of an enduring security force allows the Afghan Government to provide security for its people, a necessary pre-condition for the provision of governance and services.

Professionalism is the key to developing this critical and enduring force, and the Afghans will only be able to increase professionalism by developing individual skills and leaders within the Afghan National Security Force. To do this, we are increasing the quality of individual skills and improving professionalism through leader development, an increase in literacy, and basic soldier skills, like the improvement in weapons qualifications.

The enduring foundation of professionalism created in the Afghan National Security Force will be through leader development by inculcating an ethos of service and loyalty. Only when their leaders embrace a culture of service to others will the Afghan National Security Force truly be a professional force. The premier leader development facility in Afghanistan is the National Military Academy of Afghanistan. This institution is currently educating and developing 600 future leaders. To date two classes have graduated, providing the Afghan National Army over 400 of the best-trained leaders in that force, including a few female officers who are educated at NMAA and then sent to nursing, dental, or medical school. Today some of these officers are leading operations in the most dangerous areas of Afghanistan, as well as supporting them in the air as pilots in the Afghan Air Force. Simultaneously, these leaders are providing the example for their soldiers and enforcing Army standards. They are the catalyst for the professionalization of their security force.

In a country with astronomically high illiteracy, this vital skill, taken for granted in countries like the United States whose children grow up with Sesame Street and singing the ABC song, is not found within much of Afghan society. In order to professionalize the Army and Police, however, it is an essential enabler. Entry level soldiers and patrolmen have an average literacy rate of around 14%, creating a major challenge in training, education and even performance of the basic skills required by professional security forces. This is why we have instituted mandatory literacy classes in all basic entry courses, specialty courses following basic training, and when time permits in garrison for the Army and patrol stations for the Police. These classes have brought the number of students educated in these mandatory classes from 0 in training in 2009 to 27,000 at any one time in training today, and a goal of having 50,000 this December, and 100,000 next June.

Though the creation of mandatory literacy courses in the past nine months has shown progress toward the professionalization of the Afghan National Security Force and educated many students, it will take time and sustained effort to educate an entire generation of Afghans to a level necessary to create professional leaders and allow for the specialization of the force.

Finally, basic soldier skills like the increase in weapons qualification has been a sign of measured progress in the Afghan National Security Force. In March Newsweek authors Mark Hosenball, Ron Moreau, and Mark Miller pointed out that members of the Afghan National Security Force were a “gang that couldn’t shoot straight.” Today, this is no longer the case with graduates of the training program. Weapons qualification has improved from 35% to 97%. In a counterinsurgency environment, where protecting the people will invariably involve armed engagement, the ability to shoot accurately is a key measure of quality within the force. The increase in qualification is a tangible sign of progress in the professionalization of the Afghan National Security Force.

Significant challenges remain to developing a professional force that can generate and sustain itself without international support. Overcoming these challenges can and will be done. The measured progress that we see today, from leader development to literacy and basic soldier skills, are evidence that progress can be made. Thousands of Afghans join, train, and die for their nation every day, working and fighting to make a better future. We should endeavor to support their sacrifices by providing them all the tools, knowledge, and skills necessary to help them chart a new and better path for their people.

For more information on the NATO Training Mission and the progress of the Afghan National Security Force, visit www.ntm-a.com.

Update

Gen. Caldwell told Army News:

“It’s going like gangbusters,” Caldwell said. “We’ve got the right advisors and they’re working with them. They’ve appointed a good Afghan commander, and they are taking control of the training for their Afghan army.”

Security

Petraeus: Quran Burning ‘Could Endanger Troops’

Petraeus at Senate hearingOn September 11, 2010, the extremist evangelical Dove World Church — whose pastor, Terry Jones, has written a book called “Islam Is Of The Devil” — plans to host “International Burn a Quran Day,” when it will burn Islam’s sacred text and encourage others across the world to do so as well. Church member Wayne Sapp has even posted an instructional video that explains how and why to burn the Quran.

But today the Wall Street Journal reports that Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, said the planned burning of Qurans “could put the lives of American troops in danger and damage the war effort“:

Petraeus said the Taliban would exploit the demonstration for propaganda purposes, drumming up anger toward the U.S. and making it harder for allied troops to carry out their mission of protecting Afghan civilians.

It could endanger troops and it could endanger the overall effort,” Gen. Petraeus said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “It is precisely the kind of action the Taliban uses and could cause significant problems. Not just here [in Afghanistan], but everywhere in the world we are engaged with the Islamic community.”

Update

Confirming Petraeus’ fears, “hundreds of Afghans railed against the United States and called for President Barack Obama’s death at a rally in the capital Monday to denounce an American church’s plans to burn the Islamic holy book on Sept. 11.” The U.S. Embassy in Kabul even issued a statement saying it was “deeply concerned about deliberate attempts to offend members of religious or ethnic groups.” Nevertheless, some Afghans are still placing blame for the Quran burning day on Obama:

“We know this is not just the decision of a church. It is the decision of the president and the entire United States,” said Abdul Shakoor, an 18-year-old high school student who said he joined the protest after hearing neighborhood gossip about the Quran burning.

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