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Yglesias

Endgame

I can’t here you any clearer:

— Field rations around the world—Italy, France, and Spain look good, Germany, UK, and Scandinavia looking bad. South Korea seems appealing to me, but it’s not to western tastes.

— Jeffrey Goldberg’s sit-down with Fidel Castro is totally surreal and reads like an April Fool’s prank.

— The climate for incumbent Democrats is so bad that even Mayor Daley isn’t running for re-election.

— Ben Bernanke’s view of the origin of the crisis.

— Income-happiness link maxes out at around $75,000 a year.

— How should the rise of the internet change the way we write history?

— Timothy Noah’s excellent multimedia presentation on inequality.

Wavves, “Super Soaker.

Politics

Nearly Half The Public Is ‘Very Uncomfortable’ With Phasing Out Social Security For Private Accounts

A recently-released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll surveyed Americans on a variety of issues, including their views on the country’s direction, their approval of the president’s handling of the economy, and what they think of Congress’ performance.

One section of the poll asked respondents how they would feel about a candidate who ran based on several different policy platforms. Respondents then replied whether they were enthusiastic about the platform, comfortable with it, had reservations about it, were very uncomfortable with the position, if it made no difference, or they weren’t sure. The results were listed numerically responding to each category from left to right.

The two issues that netted the highest “uncomfortable” rating from poll respondents were Bush’s economic policies and Social Security privatization. 39 percent of those polled responded that they’d be uncomfortable with voting for a candidate who supported the economic polices of former president George W. Bush. But the position that provoked the highest level of opposition was supporting “phasing out Social Security and instead [supporting] allowing workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market,” with 49 percent of respondents saying the position made them “very uncomfortable“:

poll7

While the poll shows that only 21 percent of the public is “enthusiastic” or “comfortable” with slowly privatizing Social Security, there are a number of leading Republican officeholders who have endorsed the concept of doing so. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), the “ranking member on the House Budget Committee,” has put together a road map for privatizing the program that is similar to President Bush’s failed 2005 plan. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) has also indicated that he’d like to revive the Bush effort. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) has talked about the need to “wean” Americans off the program.

Meanwhile, a number of leading Republicans running for office have also endorsed radical plans to privatize the program. Both Pennsylvania Republican senate candidate Pat Toomey and Rand Paul have endorsed at least partially privatizing Social Security. Nevada Republican senate candidate Sharon Angle has called for the program to be “phased out,” and Alaska Republican senate candidate Joe Miller has gone even further, declaring that the program is simply unconstitutional.

Climate Progress

Arctic non-shocker: Ever-thinning sea ice melts out as area, extent, and volume approach record lows

Disinformers puzzled by reality, try to game prediction contest

In May, I wrote “Arctic poised to see record low sea ice volume this year.”  The latest analysis from the Polar Science Center suggests that in fact we are going to break the record of “5,800 km^3 or 67% below its 1979 maximum.”

The anti-science disinformers have been insisting that the ice is getting thicker and, as recently as mid-August, asserted that we would see a ‘recovery’ in Arctic ice to 2006 levels (see “WattsUpWithThat breaks own record for fastest overturning of a prediction by reality“).  Not.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Area.png

That plot is sea ice area from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

UPDATE:  You can read an attempt by the discredited Steven Goddard to rewrite history and spread more disinformation in the comments section here.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) tells me that “at this time of year area would be a better indicator of the health of the ice pack than the extent.”  NSIDC explains the difference between extent and area here:

Read more

Economy

Sen. Alexander: The Bush Tax Cuts Are Free, But Obama’s Tax Cuts Cost Money

A handful of Republican lawmakers have tried to claim recently that extending all of the Bush tax cuts, including those for the wealthiest two percent of Americans, is free. “Continuing the [Bush] tax cuts isn’t a cost,” said Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK). “It doesn’t score anything to continue them.”

Of course, back in the real world, Republicans designed the Bush tax cuts to expire at the end of this year, so relative to current law it costs more than $3 trillion over ten years to extend all of them. Extending the cuts for the richest two percent of Americans alone costs $830 billion.

Some Republicans, like Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), attempt to wish away this cost by claiming that revenues increase when taxes are cut (even though all of the data indicates otherwise). But Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) has taken the tax absurdity to new heights, claiming that extending the Bush tax cuts is free, but President Obama’s latest proposal to cut business taxes by permanently extending the research and development tax credit may cost too much money:

Alexander, the chairman of the Senate Republican Caucus, said GOP lawmakers will consider Obama’s latest proposal to provide a research and development tax credit for businesses. But such a tax credit should come only after the White House agrees to extend the Bush tax cuts, including those on those earning more than $250,000 a year.

“The first thing we need to do is to make sure that we don’t raise taxes (by allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire at the end of the year),” Alexander said. “That is going to take most of September. Then we can turn our attention to seeing if we have money to reduce taxes.”

There are two problems with this. First, Alexander is clearly willing to hold the R&D credit hostage until he gets hundreds of billions in tax cuts for the rich (since Obama and the Democrats have already made it clear that they plan to extend the Bush tax cuts for the middle class). But second, why do we have to extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy before deciding whether or not we can afford the business tax credit?

Permanently extending the R&D credit will cost about $100 billion over ten years, and the administration said that it intends to (at least partially) pay for it by closing other tax loopholes. When you boil it down, Alexander is saying that we have to wait and see “if we have money” for $100 billion in research and development, but should be spending $830 billion on the very richest Americans without a second thought.

This dichotomy has been at play when it came to other measures aimed at alleviating the pain of the Great Recession. For instance, the same Republican lawmakers who said that extending $33 billion worth of unemployment benefits was too expensive also pushed to extend all of the Bush tax cuts. But they rarely, if ever, did so in consecutive sentences.

Yglesias

Businessmen Claim Capitalism Requires Government to Stifle Competition

(cc photo by Poldavo)

(cc photo by Poldavo)

Lydia DePillis gives us another postcard in the timeless quest of incumbent business owners to use local government to crush competition. The issue this time is the Latino Market located three days a week in Adams-Morgan. People shop at the market, and if the market didn’t exist they might shop elsewhere!

Here’s the problem: Neighboring restaurants that sell similar food say the city-sanctioned market has stolen their lunch traffic on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday—the busiest days of the week. And that, the businessowners complained at a contentious ANC IC meeting last night, is plain unfair.

“I put all that I have in this business,” says Juan Loyola, who worked in an Auntie Anne’s Pretzels in Tysons Corner for five years before starting Pollo Granjero in 2008. “If I fail, all that I have is gone. Who’s gonna help us?”

“They pay rent. They pay for trash. They are inspected,” added Adams Morgan Business Association president Pat Patrick, who owns a local commercial real estate agency. “These other vendors don’t have this. The hallmark of capitalism is that you’re starting out on a level playing field. And by god, this is far from a level playing field!

Kristen Barden from the local Business Improvement District at least went through the trouble of coming up with a public health rationale for shutting the market down, though not actual evidence of the existence of a public health problem. The incumbent restauranteurs seem to me to have a valid complaint that sales tax treatment between vendors and stores should be equalized. But the general notion on display here from Loyola and others is that it’s appropriate for public policy to attempt to protect the investments of incumbent businessmen from competition. That’s nonsense, but it’s people with a large financial stake in obtaining such competition who are likely to show up at meetings.

Politics

NM Corrections Secretary Refusing To Penalize Contract-Breaching Private Prison Company He Used To Work For

joeThe escape of three detainees from a privately-run prison in Arizona last month “put the spotlight on…private prisons,” as critics of prison privatization pointed to the “lax oversight” of the private prison system as one reason the inmates were able to so easily break out of their facilities.

Now, the New Mexico Independent (NMI) reports that neighboring state New Mexico is experiencing similar lax oversight as “the New Mexico Corrections Department has not collected penalties from two private prison operators despite repeated contract violations, costing the state potentially millions of dollars in uncollected fines.” The two prison operators in question, GEO Group, and Corrections Corporation of America (CCA), have been found to be understaffing the prisons they operate, not meeting contractual obligations.

In an interview with NMI, New Mexico Corrections Secretary Joe Williams “acknowledged that the vacancy rates at the prisons GEO and CCA operate often are higher than their contracts allow,” but said he “decided against punishing the firms because the prisons they manage ‘are outstanding.’” He explained that the prisons’ contract doesn’t say that he “shall” fine the companies for violating the terms of the agreement, but rather that he “can”:

The New Mexico Corrections Department has not collected penalties from two private prison operators despite repeated contract violations, costing the state potentially millions of dollars in uncollected fines, state officials have told The Independent. [...]

Williams acknowledged that the vacancy rates at the prisons GEO and CCA operate often are higher than their contracts allow, but he decided against punishing the firms because the prisons they manage “are outstanding,” he said. “They are not having escapes; there are no substantial problems. If there were a problem I would be down there penalizing them,” he said. [...]

“The contract does not say I shall do it. The contract says I can do it,” Williams told The Independent.

In choosing not to penalize the GEO and CCA prisons for understaffing their facilities, Williams is far from an impartial arbiter. As his biography page on the New Mexico Corrections Department website boasts, in 1999, the “Geo Group, Inc. (formerly known as Wackenhut) hired Joe as the warden for the Lea County Correctional Facility, and charged him with turning around the troubled prison in Hobbs, New Mexico. The facility eventually became a flagship prison. Agreeing to serve as its warden proved to be the right move, both professionally and personally. In fact, Joe liked the city of Hobbs so much, he named his beloved basset hound Sir Hobbs.” It adds that Williams’ experience at GEO gave him “rare insight into the world of private corrections” and made him an “ideal candidate for the job he now holds.” The biography notes that the state’s incarceration system is “44 percent privatized, and leads the nation in prison privatization.”

The Governor’s website notes that Williams is “the first private sector Warden ever to be selected to head a state correctional system in the nation.” It now appears that Williams still has some loyalty to his former employer, and in refusing to penalize GEO for its clear violation of its contract, is exhibiting a clear conflict of interest.

Yglesias

Politics and Egg-Breaking

Iso-Enhanced-Egg 1

Andy Rotherham has a good op-ed on Adrian Fenty, Michelle Rhee, and the mirage of changing things without making anyone upset:

The record on urban education reform makes plain that there is a fundamental choice between harmony among the various adult interests and rapid progress on school improvement. While Fenty certainly could have handled the political side of the reforms more deftly, no one should think that the disruption and tension were unavoidable. Rhee would not have accomplished what she has without making the choices so clear and being so, well, polarizing in the process.

D.C. voters may have plenty of reasons for wanting a new mayor. But hoping that someone can dramatically improve the city’s schools without causing a lot of acrimony shouldn’t be one of them.

I think you can best illustrate this with an unrelated example from the Fenty administration, his reform of the city’s taxi fares. It used to be the case that while in cities that aren’t Washington DC you paid a taxi driver based on a meter, in DC you paid a driver based on the number of “zones” you’d driven through. This created a lot of inefficient discontinuity in the price structure and a lot of wasted time as I quibbled with cab drivers about whether I should be dropped off at the north side or the south side of U Street. But especially since the canonical zone map was oriented so that north didn’t point up, it gave cabbies ample opportunity to rip off confused tourists and/or business travelers.

Consequently, when mayor Fenty proposed we switch to a normal system it led to a lot of controversy and even an attempted strike by cab drivers. There was even a lawsuit. But the Fenty administration plowed ahead, reformed the system, the controversy faded. Nowadays, though, if you talk to any cabbie they bear a deep grudge against Fenty and his divisive ways and are all planning on voting for Gray. And Gray is happy to complain about Fenty’s style and approach. But—critically—Gray doesn’t say we should go back to the zone system.

On the one hand, that’s great. Gray’s probably going to win and going back to the zones would be a terrible idea. So on this and on most issues, both candidates have reasonable positions on the issues. But just as we’ve seen with the Obama administration’s leadership on the federal level there’s a tension between safeguarding one’s reputation as a reasonable guy and actually setting about to do things.

Economy

Will Obama’s Business Investment Plan Lead To Any Job Creation?

Tomorrow, the Obama administration will reportedly unveil a new measure allowing businesses to deduct 100 percent of their equipment investments from their tax bills until the end of 2011. The proposal is being paired with one regarding infrastructure investment (which I discussed earlier), as the administration looks for ways to boost the sluggish economic recovery.

The upfront cost of the proposal is $200 billion, though the administration estimates that the ten-year cost will be more like $30 billion, “because deductions that businesses would have taken in future years under current rules would disappear.” But the proposal is being met with some skepticism from economists, with Robert Reich noting that corporations need a tax break “as much as someone with a serious heart condition needs Botox”:

The reason businesses aren’t investing in new plant and equipment has nothing to do with the cost of capital. It’s because they don’t need the additional capacity. There isn’t enough demand for their goods and services to justify it. Consumers aren’t buying because they’re trying to come out from under a huge debt load, including mortgage debt…[S]mall businesses don’t have enough profits against which to use these tax credits and deductions, and large corporations are sitting on over a trillion dollars of profits and don’t need them.

Small businesses cite economic conditions and lack of sales prospects as their reasons for not hiring — not a belief that their taxes are too high — so measures to spur demand will have more effect on whether or not those businesses expand. In fact, that’s precisely why the Congressional Budget Office ranked accelerating deductions as one of the least effective measures for boosting the economy:

The effect of the incentive may be smaller when the economy is weak than when it is strong: Firms may be less likely to increase investment when they have idle capacity and when they are less confident about the future demand for their products and services. In addition, when the economy slows, more firms incur losses and pay no income tax; some of those firms therefore get less benefit from immediate tax deductions, although firms that paid taxes in previous years may be able to reclaim some of those taxes.

When Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) proposed a similar measure during the 2008 presidential campaign, Brian Levine found that “the number of jobs created would be decidedly unimpressive relative to the size of the tax break.” CBO estimates that accelerating deductions creates between 20 cents and one dollar of economic activity for every dollar spent, providing far less bang for the buck than many other steps.

So while it will certainly put Republicans — who have sought a policy like this for a long time — in a political bind, the payoff in terms of employment is highly questionable. “Right now plenty of companies are making record profits without expanding hiring,” David Dayen pointed out. “And if that’s the case, why do they need such an enormous break in the not-so-well-grounded-hopes that it’ll lead to hiring?”

Politics

Rick Scott’s Immigrant Running Mate Accused Of ‘Evading’ Questions On Immigration

Last week, gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott (R-FL) tapped Jennifer Carroll (R-FL), an African American immigrant from Trinidad, to share the Republican ticket with him as lieutenant governor. “Working together, we will broaden the base of our party,” Scott said as he introduced Carroll. However, if Scott hopes to use Carroll to broaden a minority base that includes disgruntled Latino and immigrant voters who he has isolated via his hardline immigration stance, he may want to ask his running mate to brush up on her talking points. The Palm Beach Post published an awkward exchange between one of its reporters and Carroll:

CARROLL: I agree with Rick and his position on legal immigration. Illegal immigration I do not support because I feel that we should not be rewarding illegal activities.

PALM BEACH POST: But does that mean you support bringing an Arizona-style immigration enforcement law to Florida?

CARROLL: Well let me you ask you back, what is your impression about Arizona-style immigration laws?

PALM BEACH POST:What is my impression?

CARROLL: Yes.

PALM BEACH POST:It’s a law that requires police when enforcing other laws to check immigration status if there is a suspicion. [...]

CARROLL: We haven’t gotten into the nitpicky as to how a bill is going to be crafted. There’s already a bill by Will Snyder that the House has already filed. What the containment of that bill is, how it is going to come out of the House or Senate, is another story

PALM BEACH POST:Do you support Representative Snyder’s bill?

CARROLL: I have not read the bill, so I cannot tell you.

Watch it:

During his primary against Bob McCollum (R-FL), Scott poured millions of dollars into ads supporting Arizona’s tough immigration law and advocating for one like it in Florida. Snyder’s immigration bill, which McCollum unveiled as part of his campaign platform, was largely a desperate response to Scott’s pandering on the issue. Since then, GOP Latino leaders have been publicly asking Scott to abandon his anti-immigrant rhetoric. So far, there is no indication that either he or his running mate is listening. Read more at the Wonk Room.

Media

PBS Shrugs at Koch/Nova Greenwashing

8. Charles and David Koch 1

As best I can tell David H. Koch is genuinely interested in the subject of human evolution, and it’s very difficult to understand his patronage of things like Nova’s “Becoming Human” series or the Smithsonian Institution’s Koch Hall of Human Origins as merely an effort to block comprehensive climate change legislation. Nevertheless, it’s indisputably true that both the Hall of Human Origins and the Nova series spend time dealing with climate change issues and both the museum and the show clearly go to great pains to paint catastrophic climate change in a positive light.

Tragically, the scientists involved seem to have crawled into a cave of denial and persuaded themselves that this stuff is all kosher. Meanwhile, as Joe Romm points out today PBS’ ombudsman is reading from the same script arguing that “As a viewer of what strikes me and a lot of others as a consistently first-rate program, I trust NOVA.”

NOVA is a first-rate program and I enjoyed the “Becoming Human” series. Still, it handles the climate change issue in an inept way that’s favorable to the financial interests and political predilections of one of its major funders. Simply saying “trust us” doesn’t cut it here.

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