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Yglesias

War With Iran Unlikely to Spur Growth

My colleague Matt Duss finds David Broder arguing that “as tensions rise and we accelerate preparations for war [with Iran], the economy will improve”. I had sort of considered writing a satirical piece along these lines, though my proposed plan of attack was going to be join US-EU military operations against Canada and Norway.

At any rate, Broder is kind of enough to observe the questionable moral logic here and hastens to add “I am not suggesting, of course, that the president incite a war to get reelected.” The economics, however, is questionable. It’s true that a net increase in government purchases would increase economic growth. But as Dean Baker notes one hardly needs a war to produce a net increase in government purchases: “If spending on war can provide jobs and lift the economy then so can spending on roads, weatherizing homes, or educating our kids.” The point is that anything that mobilizes real resources will fight idleness and unemployment. What’s wanted, however, is to mobilize real resources in order to do something useful.

One should also consider the very real possibility that war with Iran would lead to a depression inducing supply-side shock through a spike in energy prices. Even worse, war is bad for children and other living things! An alternative military stimulus would just involve doing the stepped-up military purchases but then doing absolutely nothing with the new equipment and personnel. That would have the same economic impact, but nobody would need to die.

Yglesias

Too Many Secrets

And to say a bit more about WikiLeaks, I think that absolutely the most valuable thing the latest document dump has done is provoke so many responses along the lines of “there’s nothing new here.”

That raises the obvious question: if there’s nothing new here, then why on earth was this all classified?

Whatever Assange’s subjective overall goals are, one thing he’s demonstrating beyond all possible doubt is that there’s an overwhelming tendency toward overclassification in the US military. I haven’t seen anyone even attempt to assert that literally every single document Assange is released contains life-threatening secrets. They don’t attempt to do so because the charge is laughable. And yet, there’s the United States military. You and I pay for it with our tax dollars. They go around the world purporting to represent us and to act in our names. We’re entitled, in my view, to see their work product. Obviously some degree of military secrecy is necessary, but it’s clearly much less than the degree we’ve now got. Instead a lot of stuff seems to be kept classified merely because it’s convenient to stamp everything that way, or else because sparing the citizens the gory details of war is better for home front morale. Or something.

Yglesias

Julian Assange is Not an American

It’s a bit pedantic, but let me join James Fallows in noting that the idea that the US government should deem Julian Assange guilty of “treason” necessarily falters on the fact that Assange is not an American. If he’s a traitor to any country, it would have to be Australia.

Of course that’s neither here nor there as to the core issues, but it’s a window in the carelessly and slipshod thinking that many of Assange’s critics are engaged in.

Politics

Cornyn Refuses To Denounce Vitter’s Race-Baiting Anti-Immigrant Campaign Ad

This month, Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) began airing a race-baiting anti-immigrant campaign ad that the local Hispanic Chamber of Commerce found to be “totally abhorrent and shocking.” The ad targets the immigration stance of Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA), Vitter’s opponent: the narrator says “Thanks to him, we may as well put out a welcome sign for illegal aliens,” as footage of dirty, goofy-looking Latino men slipping through a hole in a fence displaying a neon welcome sign runs across the screen. The men step into a limo with a giant government check they defiantly hang out the window as they zoom away. “I’m going to use the ‘R’ word and say racist,” said the spokeswoman for the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. “We are saying you owe us an apology, we are offended, we expect an immediate apology and we expect this ad to be yanked from the airwaves immediately,” she continued.

Not only did Vitter continue to run the ad, but he defended it during a debate last week, asking “Is it a stereotype that folks coming across the border — that is a problem and they look like that? Dennis that is a fact, that is not a stereotype! Let’s get our heads out of the sand!” This morning on ABC’s This Week with Christiane Amanpour, Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, joined Vitter in defending the ad. Amanpour repeatedly invited Cornyn to denounce the ad’s racial overtones, which he refused to do, saying only it was “appropriate” to raise the issue of illegal immigration:

AMANPOUR: Some people have called that [ad] racist. I want to know, do you think it’s appropriate to finger Hispanics in that way? Do you think it’s appropriate?

CORNYN: I wish we had time to show Melancon’s ads against Vitter. They’re pretty tough.

AMANPOUR: But let me just ask about this particular ad —

CORNYN: I think border security is a federal responsibility and one that the federal government has simply failed to deal with in an appropriate way. And I think it’s appropriate to raise that issue in the campaign.

AMANPOUR: But do you think it’s appropriate in this way? I mean you’re from Texas. You have a big Hispanic group there. Do you think it’s appropriate? Would you have done that?

CORNYN: I didn’t write the ad.

AMANPOUR: Would you have done it?

CORNYN: I think calling attention to illegal immigration is — for example, this last year, Christiane, 45,000 people immigrated to the United States from countries other than Mexico, including counting like Yemen where this bomb emanated from. It’s a national security issue.

Watch it:

Last year, Cornyn hit back against race-based attacks on then-Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor, saying that Newt Gingrich’s allegations that Sotomayor was prejudiced against non-Hispanics were “terrible,” and “not the kind of tone any of us want to set.” By refusing to denounce Vitter’s ad, and even suggesting it’s “appropriate,” Cornyn has apparently revised his opinion of what is an appropriate tone.

Yglesias

Interracial Dating and Vote Preference

I’m not surprised to see a correlation between white voters’ inclination to vote for Democrats and white voters’ inclination to say interracial dating is okay, but Michael Tesler observes that the correlation is sharply up today relative to four years ago:

Obviously John Boehner isn’t going to ban interracial dating, and Nancy Pelosi isn’t going to force your daughter to go out with a black guy. One possibility is that the election of Barack Obama has suddenly made irrelevant racial considerations more salient. But my hypothesis would be that we’re seeing the link between economic distress and xenophobia, the same thing that’s driving so many anti-Chinese themes in midterm advertising.

Media

Broder: ‘As We Accelerate Preparations For War [With Iran], The Economy Will Improve’

Observing the continuing economic crisis, Washington Post columnist David Broder asks “Can Obama harness the forces that might spur new growth?”

The answer is obvious, but its implications are frightening. War and peace influence the economy.

Look back at FDR and the Great Depression. What finally resolved that economic crisis? World War II.

Here is where Obama is likely to prevail. With strong Republican support in Congress for challenging Iran’s ambition to become a nuclear power, he can spend much of 2011 and 2012 orchestrating a showdown with the mullahs. This will help him politically because the opposition party will be urging him on. And as tensions rise and we accelerate preparations for war, the economy will improve.

Dean Baker corrects Broder on the basic economics, noting that “War affects the economy the same way that other government spending affects the economy”:

If spending on war can provide jobs and lift the economy then so can spending on roads, weatherizing homes, or educating our kids. Yes, that’s right, all the forms of stimulus spending that Broder derided so much because they add to the deficit will increase GDP and generate jobs just like the war that Broder is advocating (which will also add to the deficit).

Leaving aside the ridiculous idea that we can just ramp up the war machine, whip America into an anti-Iran frenzy and then shut it all down once the economy’s back on track, there’s the question of basic human decency. Especially in light of what has just occurred in Iraq, what kind of moral degenerate seriously suggests we get ready to do it again in neighboring Iran, just as a way to spur job growth?

The kind who writes a regular column in the Washington Post, apparently.

Update

National Security Network’s Heather Hurlburt comments, via email:

So, spending on the current two wars isn’t lifting the economy, but a third will be the charm?

Climate Progress

Vitter of sea-rise-threatened Louisiana: “I do not think the science clearly supports global warming theory”

Louisiana

The state that stands to suffer the most from human-caused climate change has elected leaders who want to stop efforts to avoid its inundation (see “Sea levels may rise 3 times faster than IPCC estimated, could hit 6 feet by 2100“).  That’s true of the Governor and presidential hopeful (see “Jindal tries to block climate change regulation“).  And It’s true of GOP Sen. Vitter who tried to block climate change response centers.

In their final debate on Thursday night, Vitter and his challenger Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) grappled with global warming, which threatens Louisiana with destruction through sea level rise, strengthened storms, heat waves, and droughtBrad Johnson has the story and the video the reveals the sharp contrast between these two candidates on the issue  that should be of greatest importance to Louisiana voters.

Read more

Climate Progress

A beautiful coalition against dirty energy

Our guest blogger today is Van Jones.

New polls are showing that the majority of Californians reject Proposition 23, a November ballot initiative — funded by Texas oil companies — that would effectively repeal the state’s landmark clean energy and environmental protection laws.

What the polls do not show and what few news outlets are covering, is the striking diversity of voices that are demanding clean energy, and rejecting the false notion that protecting the planet and our public health will hurt the economy.

Read more

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