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Instead of Listening to Me…

As I was explaining to someone last night, one of the unfortunate conventions of journalism is you can’t make your big takeaway from a trip be “this other guy wrote a very good article a couple of weeks before I got here.” But fortunately here in blogland we don’t need to hew so closely to the conventions, so I’ll say that for my part one of the clearest messages this trip has been bringing home is that Karl Vick’s article “Why Israel Doesn’t Care About Peace” contains a lot of insight.

Beyond the thought that you should read it, I also really hope that Palestinians and their supporters will read it since the Palestinians I’ve spoken to here seem to me to largely agree with Vick’s conclusion that Israel doesn’t really care about peace but are totally misreading the reasons why. This is one of these situations that I think falls under the maxim that it’s better to assume incompetence than conspiracy, but Palestinians tend to see it the other way around.

Climate Progress

Hal Lewis resigns from The American Physical Society

An unimportant moment in science history, but perhaps a lesson in “normal science” that will shut down Cuccinelli’s witch hunt

A physicist named Hal Lewis who doesn’t know the first thing about climate science has resigned from the American Physical Society because he doesn’t know the first thing about climate science.

The anti-science crowd has, with unintentional irony, compared his words of resignation to “a letter on the scale of Martin Luther, nailing his 95 theses to the Wittenburg church door.”  That laughable assertion might be a half-truth, I suppose, if scientific views were no different from religious ones, which, I suppose, for the disinformers they are.  And it might even be a quarter truth if Luther hadn’t actually included any theses in his letter but instead cited, say, the work of Nostradamus in defending his critique of the Catholic Church.  But it isn’t even be a semi-hemi-demi truth because it won’t be leading to a major new science religion of Lewisism, since, of course, that’s not how science works.

As we’ll see, Lewis couldn’t even bother himself to learn the basics of climate science and he apparently doesn’t know or talk to very many if any climate scientists.  Indeed, this whole story isn’t terribly newsworthy:  Lewis isn’t even the first physicist born in 1923 who was a longtime member of the JASON defense advisory group, who studied nuclear winter, and who has said absurdly unscientific things about climate science.  That honor belongs to Freeman Dyson.

UPDATE:  To see the APS’s reply, click here.

But it did inspire me to break out my copy of Thomas Kuhn’s landmark book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, which is marked up from my MIT undergraduate physics days and still has some amazingly relevant insights for today, as we’ll see.  It was Kuhn, after all, who originated the term “normal science,” a term confusionists and Tea Party extremists like Viriginia AG Ken Cuccinelli are, well, confused about.

If you want some backstory on Lewis and the APS, read our good bunny friend at Rabett Run, “Dear fellow member of the American Physical Society.”

Lewis’s letter itself is almost a satire of one of those “when I was a kid” reminisces of how great things used to be when people (physicists, in this case) were pure and poor:

Read more

Yglesias

Clichés Everywhere

Almost everything this trip has inspired me to observe about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is pretty laughably cliché. For example, it’s both true that Palestinians are being subjected to intolerable injustice and also true that many if not most Palestinians are committed to a worldview that, if taken literally, is extremely difficult to square with the legitimate interests of the Israeli public. But blah blah blah that’s already what sensible people generally think. And this all encompassing sphere of cliché up to and including the fact that two people who come look at a situation with different prior commitments can see just about anything they want in it.

A great example came from our visit to the H-2 zone of Hebron where I saw shocking things that hit me with a level of instinctive, physical moral revulsion that I’ve never really experienced before. I’m having trouble coming up with adequate words to describe the scene but if you Google for “human rights in Hebron” you’ll get a flavor (also here or here). As a small instantiation of the absolute insanity of the situation, here’s a (unfortunately not very good) photo of a guy carrying goods via horse cart:

horsecart 1

Why this bit of pastoral anachronism in a built-up urban area? Well, you see this is a street that Jews are allowed to drive but Arabs must abstain from driving motor vehicles. A horse, however, is allowed. That’s not the whole story, as I say you really need to read about it on the human rights websites where they explain the whole horrifying thing. But in some ways the truer horror is this. After visiting the location, one’s first instinct is to proclaim that anyone but a religious fanatic can clearly see that the situation is intolerable and whatever you think of the situation as a whole Israel badly needs to evacuate the small Jewish settlement and return the H-2 zone to Palestinian administration. But no! A reader sent me this missive from an Israeli who took a B’Tselem tour of the are and came away constructing an argument that the scene demonstrates the humane nature of the occupation of the West Bank.

Completely absurd. But I can’t deny that the guy has seen the situation, and simply does not see what I so clearly saw there—the urgent, vital moral necessity of disbanding this particular grain of occupation immediately and the intrinsically corrupting nature of the overall occupation process.

IMG_0152

Meanwhile, in another cliché right across the checkpoint the (appropriately) outraged Palestinian population has chosen to express their outrage in a manner calculated to minimize the odds of winning Israeli support for ending the occupation.

Alyssa

Perdido Street Station Book Club Part V: Chase and Race

Sorry for the delay, y’all. Hope everyone who gets it off is enjoying Columbus Day. The usual rules apply, of course. Spoilers through Part V of Perdido Street Station, but not beyond, appear below and in comments. Part I of this series is here, Part II is here, Part III is here, and Part IV is here. Part VI will appear on Friday.

I don’t know how many of you have read Posession, but for those of you who haven’t, I highly recommend it. I re-read it in between sections of Perdido Street Station, and was reminded of how much I love one of the most self-consciously literary lines in the book: “Since Blackadder and Lenora and Cropper had come, [the main characters' journey] had changed from Quest, a good romantic form, into Chase and Race, two other equally valid ones.” To me, this is the section where Perdido Street Station embraces its transformation into a particularly black fairy tale. And while there’s a lot going on, the grimness of the backstories here worked for me, for once.

Last week, we discussed the marvelous ending to William Goldman’s The Princess Bride, in which he predicts the decay and disappointment of the expectations the fairy tale has set up for us so far. If that bracing brush with reality is meant as a tonic, Mieville’s description of the origins of the central love story in Perdido Street Station is meant to keep the frame of the fairy tale while shattering the intentions behind it. Lin and Isaac may have come to truly love each other, but their coming-together, their love story, has its origins in drunkenness and transgression. It is not pure, even though it proves to be durable:

In the middle of showing off, laboriously signing a dirty joke one night, Isaac, very drunk, had clumsily pawed her, and they had pulled each other to bed. The event had been clumsy and difficult. They could not kiss as a first step: Lin’s mouthparts would tear Isaac’s jaw from his face. For just a moment after coming, Isaac had been overcome with revulsion, and had almost vomited at the sight of those bristling headlegs and waving antennae. Lin had been nervous of his body, and had stiffened suddenly and unpredictably. When he had woken he had felt fearful and horrified, but at the fact of having transgressed rather than at the transgression itself. And over a shy breakfast, Isacc had realized that this was what he had wanted. Casual cross-sex was not uncommon, of course, but Isaac was not an inebriated young man frequenting a xenian brothel on a dare. He was falling, he realized, in love.

Lin and Isaac are where the story begins, of course, lovers are always the central characters in fairy tales even if they don’t begin that way. But adventure stories require, by necessity, an amusingly motley band of companions, and Mieville gives us two in this section: the band of handlingers who fight the slakemoths, and the crew that assembles around Isaac to meet with the Construct Council. The handlingers are a bit Dickensian, the waistcoat on the dog is a particularly nice touch:

The congregation was a variegated group. There were six humans apart from him, one khepri and one vodyanoi. There was a large, well-fed pedigree dog. The humans and xenians looked well-to-do or nearly so, except for one Remade street-sweeper and a ragged little child. There was an old woman dressed in tattered finery and a comely young debutante. A muscular, bearded man and a thin, bespectacled clerk. All the figures, human and otherwise, were unnaturally still and calm. All wore at least one item of voluminous or concealing clothing. The vodyanoi loincloth was twice the size of most, and even the dog sported an absurd little waistcoat.

Isaac’s gang is a bit more rough-hewn, but as I suspect we’ll discover, a bit more effective. ”We are not going to get into this on our own. We are one fat scientists, a crook and a journalist,” Isaac declares when the Construct Council is annoyed that he brought people with him. “We need some fucking professional backup. These are people who kill exotic animals for a damn living.” They’re not quite as well-drawn as Inigo, Fezzik and Vizzini, but that’s okay. Not everyone can be.

The two interesting deviations from fairy tale convention in this section come from two questions: what’s the nature of magic? And how do we determine who the monsters are? Magic may not be the appropriate name for where the Weaver takes Isaac, Yag, Lemuel and Derkhan during their escape, but the elemental structure of the universe Yag sees when he opens his eyes is somewhat beyond science:

I saw a vastness that dwarfed any desert sky. A yawning gap of Leviathan proportions. I whined and heard others whine around me. Spread across the emptiness, streaming away from us with cavernous perspective in all directions and dimensions, encompassing lifetimes and hugeness with each intricate knot of metaphysical substance, was a web. Its substance was known to me. The crawling infinity of colours, the chaos of textures that went into each strand of that eternally complex tapestry…each one resonated under the step of the dancing mad god, vibrating and sending little echoes of bravery, or hunger, or architecture, or argument, or cabbage or murder or concrete across the aether. The weft of starlings’ motivations connected to the thick, sticky strand of a young thief’s laugh. The fibres stretched taut and glued themselves solidly to a third line, its silk made from the angles of seven flying buttresses to a cathedral roof. The plait disappeared into the enormity of possible spaces.

This is something that’s fascinatingly inaccessible to either the audience or to the authorities of New Crobuzon. It shows us, however, the meaning of some of the chaos we’ve witnessed along the way. And with it, the Weaver brings an inexplicable power and tragedy to the conflict. Just because she’s helping Isaac, Derkhan, Yag and Lemuel doesn’t mean they understand her, especially when she inflicts violence upon them.

“Derkhan shook slightly as she watched him. ‘This Weaver saw fit to heal your earl, along with Lemuel’s. Not mine….Why didn’t it heal me…?’ ‘Derkhan,’ Isaac said gently. ‘I could never know.’”

The Weaver, to me, also inflects the power of being chosen, a key part of all fairy stories, with a pathos and confusion that’s relatively rare. As it turns out, Isaac, Yag, Derkhan and Lemuel aren’t chosen because they’re skilled, or virtuous, or smart, or instruments of justice. It just turns out that the Weaver, for some inexplicable reason (and it’s possible that the Weaver doesn’t quite know why) likes the way they impact the universe. There is no validation in their chosenness, just luck, and chance, something that’s made clear in the Weaver’s letter to the editor in a New Crobuzon paper (which really may be my favorite joke in the book so far):

Sirs and Madam— Please accept my compliments on your exquisite tapestry skills. For the furtherment of your craftwork I have taken it upon myself to extricate you from an unfortunate situation. My efforts are urgently required elsewhere and I am unable to accompany you. Doubtless we will meet again before much time has elapsed. In the meantime please note that he of your number whose unfortunate animal husbandry has led to the city’s present unfortunate predicament may find himself the victim of unwanted attentions from his escaped charge. I urge you to continue your fabric work, of which I find myself a devotee. Most faithfully yours, W.

And some higher cause like love, or justice, or virtue is difficult to discern in a city and in a time when it’s difficult to determine who the monsters are. There are the slake-moths, of course, but I increasingly feel like they’re sort of irrelevant, a device that brings together all the characters and gives them a threat that motivates interesting alliances and juxtapositions. But there are monsters who are worse, because there’s a knowingness, a calculation to the evil they’re inflicting on others. Among them is Mr. Motley, who has decided that Isaac is trying to corner a drug market from him, and leaves a dead man in Lin’s apartment, her wings stuffed in his mouth, bearing messages of terrible intent and torture. It’s not just Motley’s violent impulses, or his power (“‘Mr. Motley is the kingpin, Isaac,’ he said simply. ‘He is the man. He runs the eastern city. He runs it. He’s the outlaw boss.’”) that make him a monster. It’s his wrongness, his misinterpretation of the situation, his stupidity, almost, that make him as terrible as he is. Slakemoths may come and go, but a city that has built part of its structures on men like Motley has put itself in terrible danger.

And there are lesser monsters, too. Vampir get drained by slakemoths, giving further weight and heft to the fear the city feels. And it turns out that Isaac’s latest ally is a mechanical giant who speaks through a corpse and shows a somewhat disturbing interest in Isaac’s crisis engine. The Construct Council may have helped Isaac and company off a slakemoth, but that doesn’t make him comfortable company. Unlike A Song of Ice and Fire where there are knights, no matter how corrupt and dishonorable some of them may prove to be, in Perdido Street Station, we have only our morally compromised fat scientist who is involved only because he is the instrument of much of the city’s woe, a target, and has an interest in his lover’s well-being, a crook who is a simple mercenary, and an emotionally wounded journalist. None of them are pure. But the city’s fate rests on them, without concern for honor or for glory.

Health

Feingold Challenger Johnson Unsure If GOP Should ‘Repeal And Replace’ Or ‘Replace And Repeal’ Health Law

After initially claiming that they “will not campaign for full health care repeal”, Republicans have fully embraced a ‘repeal and replace’ strategy — even if the ‘replacers’ they’re proposing are just watered-down policies of provisions that are already part of the current law. Ron Johnson, who is challenging Sen. Russ Feingold in Wisconsin has pledged to “vote to repeal the Health Care Bill and replace it with market-based solutions that will include: portability, malpractice reform, mandate reduction, insurance purchase across state lines, lower costs, and a safety net for those with pre-existing conditions.”

After a debate with Feingold on Friday, however, Johnson had second thoughts about this strategy. He first embraced repeal and replace, but then backed away from immediate repeal, telling reporters that he supports provisions that would prohibit insurers from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions:

REPORTER: Is there anything in the bill that you like that needs to stay?

JOHNSON: Well certainly provisions that we can, again, there that we can repeal the whole thing and replace it with modest bills. Incremental, a modular type of system. What I’ve been talking about is not repeal and then replace. I would suggest we replace and then repeal. Let’s face it. We’re not going to repeal it in the first two years. So what I suggest is if the Republicans take over one of the houses of Congress, they start writing the replacement bill from day 1 so that we can show the American people this is what we intend to do and then we can show exactly how we’re going to solve the health care system in this country.

REPORTER: So health care for people with pre-existing conditions?

JOHNSON: My daughter’s heart is backwards. I think every voter in Wisconsin can be sure that I protect people with pre-existing conditions — that they’ll be able to maintain coverage.

Watch it:

Under the GOP’s replacement Pledge in the House, however, individuals with pre-existing conditions who are currently uninsured could have a hard time finding affordable insurance since issuers would still be able to deny them coverage.

Johnson’s attempt to temper expectations for what Republican will be able to achieve if they do win back the House after the mid-term elections was also recently echoed by Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) who told PBS’ The News Hour: “Even if we controlled the House, unless we controlled the Senate and got 60 votes, we wouldn’t be able to pass any corresponding legislation in the Senate. So I think, we need to keep expectations, again, fairly modest as far as what we can do over the next two years.”

Update

In July, Johnson was certain that Republicans must instantly repeal the health law. “The U.S. should rip up the recently passed health reform law and emphasize free-market principles such as health savings accounts and out-of-pocket charges – for as big a chunk of the country’s medical care as possible,” Johnson told the Journal Sentinel, insisting that the uninsurance crisis was overblown and that some people could find care at retail clinics like Walmart and Walgreens.

Politics

GOP Candidate Allen West Disses GOP Leaders, Gives ‘Boilerplate’ Pledge To America A ‘D’

allen-west_medium_imageEven before House Republicans unveiled their “Pledge to America” governing agenda last month, conservative pundits and tea party activists were dismissing it as feeble and hollow. Rep. Ted Poe (R-TX) even turned on the GOP leadership, saying “the Pledge really didn’t go far enough.” In an interview published today in Politico, tea party-backed GOP House candidate Allen West said the Pledge deserves a “D” grade, and suggested that some Washington Republicans “whore” themselves to special interests:

West quickly staked out his ground against his party’s potential future leadership. He said the Pledge to America, championed by Boehner, deserves a grade in the “D” range. He said it was missing key policy plans on immigration, earmarks and term limits. The section on national security was “same old stuff…missile defense, rah, rah, rah,” he said.

“It’s very important that in the first 90 to 120 days that the Republican Party very quickly has to earn the trust of the American people once again,” West said. “And I don’t think that the Pledge to America went very far in gaining that trust. It’s what we call in the military, boilerplate.” [...]

“I don’t want to be up there – and I’m going to say it very clearly – I’m not going to whore myself out to special interest PACs, you know, finance or anything of that nature,” West told POLITICO.

Ironically, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) is heading to Florida today to campaign for West. But West was reticent to support the leader, saying, “If John Boehner is speaker, I’m going to hold his feet to the fire.” He also split with Boehner on several key issues, saying for example, that he doesn’t support fully repealing the Affordable Care Act because “there are parts of that health care law – preexisting coverage, things of that nature – that are good and I agree with them on.” Moreover, he pointed out that talking about repealing the law is pointless because it could not be done as long as President Obama is in office.

And like a growing number of tea party candidates, West was lukewarm about Palin’s qualifications to be president, saying, “We don’t need to be worried about who’s going to be running for president in 2012, we need to be focused on this.”

Climate Progress

Study finds California is a global cleantech leader, more businesses are opening than leaving, energy bills are lower, and clean manufacturing jobs are up!

Texas oil companies Tesoro and Valero are attempting to hamstring their clean energy competitors in California with a job-killing dirty energy initiative called Prop 23. CAP’s Rebecca Lefton and Jorge Madrid have the story.

No to Proposition 23!New findings from Next 10, an independent, nonpartisan organization, document California’s global leadership in the clean-tech sector and the striking economic benefits of a low carbon economy.

In the first half of 2010, California attracted 40 percent of global clean-tech venture capital, totaling more than $11.6 billion in investment.  The 2010 California Clean Energy Index also finds that California leads the nation in clean technology patents, including 39 percent of all solar energy patents, and 20 percent of all advanced battery technology patents.

Read more

Yglesias

Last Call

On the plane over here I finished Daniel Okrent’s Last Call: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition which makes for a really excellent read. I’d like to write a full review, but I don’t really have time, so instead I’ll offer a link to this post which extracts a lot of the most interesting facts.

For my part, though, I’ll say that it still seems a little bit mysterious to me how it was possible to pass and then un-pass a Prohibition constitutional amendment within such a short span of time. Under contemporary circumstances, it’s pretty much impossible to imagine amending the constitution to say anything much less to do it and then take it back.

Health

Bennet Challenger Ken Buck Admits GOP Attacks Over Medicare Cuts Are ‘Absolutley Despicable’

Throughout the health reform debate, Republicans falsely claimed that the Affordable Care Act’s estimated $500 billion in cuts to Medicare undermines senior’s benefits and now several GOP-affiliated groups are reiterating these charges in attack ads for the midterm campaign. During a recent debate with Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) — where Karl Rove’s American Crossroads and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have run Medicare attack ads — Republican challenger Ken Buck distanced himself from the charge and conceded that the attacks were false:

BUCK: Republicans did it to you and your colleagues during the health care debate when they said, oh my goodness, the Democrats are going to take $500 billion away from Medicare. That was absolutely despicable. It was wrong for the Republicans to do it then and it’s wrong of you to do it now.”

Watch it:

“I hope you’ll call your friends who are pushing an ad accusing me of cutting $500 billion out of Medicare,” Bennet told Buck. “That $500 billion savings in Medicare is the very heart of the health care reform bill.”

Indeed, the health law does not cut the current Medicare budget, but slows growth in the program by removing approximately $500 billion from future spending over the next 10 years. The cuts help stabilize the program by eliminating overpayments and slowly phasing in payment adjustments that encourage providers to deliver quality care more efficiently. As a result the law extends the life of the Medicare trust fund by 12 years and allows seniors to retain all of their guaranteed Medicare benefits.

Politics

Fed Nominee Whom Sen. Shelby Deemed Too Unqualified To Confirm Wins Nobel Prize

Richard Shelby thinks this Nobel laureate is unqualified to set monetary policy.

Richard Shelby thinks this Nobel laureate is unqualified to set monetary policy.

Earlier today, Federal Reserve Board nominee Peter Diamond won the Nobel Prize in Economics along with two of his colleagues. Yet, despite the fact that President Obama nominated this Nobel laureate to the Fed nearly six months ago, his nomination is currently being blocked by just one senator. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) believes that this year’s winner of the highest honor in the economics profession is unqualified to actually set economic policy:

[U]nder an arcane procedural rule, the Senate sent Mr. Diamond’s nomination back to the White House on Thursday night before starting its summer recess. A leading Republican senator, Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, said that Mr. Diamond did not have sufficiently broad macroeconomic experience to help run the central bank. [...]

As Mr. Shelby noted, Mr. Diamond is not a specialist in monetary economics — the control of the supply of credit and the setting of interest rates — which is the Fed’s traditional purview. But of the five current governors of the Fed, only two, Mr. Bernanke and the vice chairman, Donald L. Kohn, are academic economists who specialize in monetary economics. The other three include a former community banker, a former Wall Street executive and a legal scholar.

Shelby, of course, has a history of this kind of abuse of the Senate Rules to prevent eminently qualified nominees from being confirmed. Earlier this year, Shelby briefly took over 70 nominees hostage in an attempt to strongarm the administration into awarding a $35 billion defense contract to his state — although he later lifted these holds once they became politically embarrassing.

But Shelby, of course, is only able to get away with these kinds of shenanigans because the Senate’s rules are shockingly easy to abuse. Indeed, while it is common wisdom that 60 senators are required to get virtually anything done, the reality is much bleaker — most Senate business now requires all 100 senators to consent.

The reason for this is because dissenting senators can force the Senate to waste hours or even days effectively doing nothing in order to pass a single bill or confirm a single nominee. Indeed, as a recent Center for American Progress white paper explains, there isn’t enough time in two entire presidential terms to confirm all of a new president’s nominees by the time that president leaves office:

TyrannyofTime_webcharts-01

In other words, the entire government can be hollowed out by a tiny group of senators with a vendetta. Today, Sen. Shelby thinks that a Nobel laureate doesn’t know enough about economics, so that nominee must languish without an up or down vote.  Tomorrow, another senator could disapprove of a nominee’s haircut, and that alone may be sufficient to spike the nomination.

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