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Yglesias

De-Euroizing Spain

Corcoran310 tweets “I really think u should do what u can to get Spain to ditch the euro. a weak Spanish currency would be awesome, I love madrid.”

I love Madrid, too. Barcelona is of course excellent but everyone knows that. Madrid is both excellent and underrated. And with currency devaluation, it could be cheap as well. But how to get there? The simplest resolution is to go rogue—quit the Euro, in effect default on debts, suffer the bank runs, and then when the economy’s moving assume it’ll be possible to work some stuff out.

Another path would be this. The Spanish government has two kinds of accounts payable. One is interest and principle on bonds it’s issued in international capital markets. The other is things like salaries, pensions, and transfer payments. Right now, all of this is denominated in Euros. Spain could take its Category 2 obligations and announce that henceforth 50% of all salaries, pensions, transfers, etc. will be paid in Euros and 50% will be paid in newly-issued Españos and also that 1 Españo is equal to 1 Euro in value. Concurrently, the government announces that everyone can now pay 33% of their taxes in Españos and that the minimum wage of 633.30 per month is now 633.3 Españos per month.

So now a bunch of Spanish pensioners, transfer recipients, and public employees are going to have a bunch of worthless Españos in their pockets that they’ll be eager to dump. But firms will be eager to accumulate some Españos in order to pay off their tax bill. So the market will establish some kind of exchange rate between the dear Euro and the cheap Españo, and it’ll make sense for firms and workers to start accepting Españos as payment for this or that. The government is basically simultaneously engaging in monetary expansion, currency depreciation, austerity budgeting, and minimum wage cuts which I think is about as close as a “all the prescriptions from all the schools of thought” solution as Spain is capable of mustering. Since Spain’s heavily indebted private sector has its outstanding debts denominated in Euros, you’ll still have a very nasty problem of unbalanced debt deflation but I don’t see any way around that.

The cheap money should lead to an influx of Northern European tourists, a crash in Spanish consumer purchases of imported goods, and booming exports of Spanish wine. To steal some charts from Martin Wolf the main thing for Spain to recognize is this:

Right now in sovereign debt terms Spain is in okay shape, especially compared to Ireland, Greece, and Portugal. But on the underlying question of labor costs, Spain is in as bad a shape as anyone. Forget the question of whose “fault” the current situation is. Just note that Spain and Germany have seen their labor costs diverge a lot. That means a European Central Bank policy that’s appropriate for Germany won’t be appropriate for Spain. And yet the ECB will make policy that’s deemed appropriate for Germany. So Spain has a big economic problem. And as we’ve been seeing in Ireland, round after round of austerity budgeting if not paired with monetary expansion will (superficially) forestall debt-repayment issues at the price of making the economic problem even worse.

Long story short the voters in Sweden and the UK owe a debt to the politicians who kept them out of the Euro.

Politics

ThinkProgress’ Things To Be Thankful For: Redistricting Reform

There are few aspects of politics that appeal to politicians’ worst demons more than redistricting. The process begins after the decennial census is conducted and population data is given to the states, which then use various methods to redraw their congressional districts accordingly. In many states that task is delegated to the state legislature and governor. When both are controlled by the same party, as will be the case next year in states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, redistricting often descends into gerrymandering, the process by which one party deliberately manipulates the map in order to put the other party at a disadvantage.

But fortunately, we’ve seen several substantive efforts at redistricting reform this year. Ridding our political system of gerrymandering is an issue that puts voters ahead of incumbents and benefits both Republicans and Democrats. Ensuring more fairness and competitiveness in our elections has been pushed by people across the political spectrum, from Tea Partiers to progressives, and from establishment Republicans to establishment Democrats. Because redistricting benefits the party in power, a party’s position on the issue often depends on their status.

Thankfully, voters in a growing number of states are pushing for changes that remove — or severely restrict — politics from redistricting. Four such states are California, Florida, Iowa, and Arizona:

CALIFORNIA — For the past ten years, California has been a model of the ill-effects of partisan redistricting. A decade ago, California legislators opted to draw a new map with the primary goal of protecting incumbent officeholders. It worked beyond belief. In the following election, every single incumbent in California’s House, Senate, and congressional delegation won reelection, taking an average 69 percent of the vote. Over the ensuing decade, none of the 120 legislative seats and just one of the state’s 53 congressional seats have switched parties.

This time around, California voters opted to draw the map themselves. In November, they overwhelmingly passed Proposition 20, which turned over congressional redistricting to a citizen commission. Out of 31,000 applicants, eight Californians — including a bookstore owner, an engineer, and an insurance agent — were chosen at random last week to serve. Those eight will soon choose another six citizens to finalize the 14-member commission, which will be evenly split between five Democrats, five Republicans, and four unaffiliated voters. Together, the commission will draw a new map using “strict, nonpartisan rules.” In order to become law, the new map must be supported by at least nine of the 14 members — three Democrats, three Republicans, and three unaffiliated voters.

FLORIDA — Like California, Florida’s current map is an egregious example of gerrymandering. A perpetual swing state, Florida backed President Bush in 2004 with 52 percent of the vote and President Obama in 2008 with 51 percent of the vote. However, thanks in large part to Republican gerrymandering in 2001, the GOP’s 55 percent of the state’s congressional vote in 2010 translated into capturing 75 percent of the state’s congressional seats.

Thankfully, Florida voters passed a redistricting reform initiative in November by a whopping 25 points, despite opposition from the state Republican Party, who stood to lose a new opportunity to gerrymander the state’s districts. Now, despite a Republican governor and large majorities in the state legislature, the GOP is barred from drawing congressional districts that “favor or disfavor an incumbent or political party.”

IOWA — Iowa is a model for fair, nonpartisan redistricting. Rather than allowing legislators to pick which voters they want to represent, Iowa gives the power of redistricting to an independent body, the Legislative Services Agency. The LSA draws a map that uses specific formulas to keep districts as compact and contiguous as possible, while also preserving city and county boundaries. Where current legislators live is a factor that is prohibited from consideration. The map is then voted on in the state legislature, but if it’s rejected, the LSA is then charged with producing another map that the legislature may like less.

There are a few demographic aspects unique to Iowa that make the state’s redistricting restrictions less complicated and more apt to the type of reform it has implemented. For instance, as Stateline.org notes, “Iowa is so overwhelmingly white that it does not have to craft districts that favor minority voters, as required under the federal Voting Rights Act. Plus, Democrats and Republicans are spread pretty evenly throughout the state.” Still, Iowa’s approach is laudable and other states would do well to replicate its system.

ARIZONA — Like Iowa, Arizona employs an independent redistricting commission comprised of two Democrats, two Republicans, and one independent. Instead of protecting incumbents and ensuring their reelection, the commission is charged with drawing as many competitive districts as possible while still creating compact, contiguous and fair borders. Unlike California, Arizona succeeded at prompting competitiveness in its congressional elections over the past decade. Nearly 40 percent of the state’s districts switched parties once, while a quarter switched parties twice. Rather than disenfranchising voters, Arizona has taken positive steps to ensure that its elections are representative and fair.

Yglesias

Green Bean Casserole

In my family (and I think in NYC more broadly) people casseroles aren’t really traditional food, unless you count Italian-American dishes like baked ziti or lasagna or whatever. So for a while now I’ve been grimly fascinated with old-school midwestern casseroles and last weekend for “Friends Thanksgiving” I undertook to try to cook a non-disgusting version of green bean casserole that wouldn’t rely on canned goods.

Fortunately, Alton Brown turned out to have a good recipe. I found it kind of challenging to make the fried onions come out evenly, but they’re pretty tasty. And the cream of mushroom soup from scratch is delicious. At the end of the day, I think I would have preferred to just eat the soup and maybe sautée some green beans with onions. But the combination is pretty good, and apparently considered de rigeur at some holiday gatherings.

Yglesias

Waiting Room

Richard Phillips observes that one of the best mashups on the new Girl Talk album is Rihanna’s “Rude Boy” plus Fugazi’s “Waiting Room” at around 5:37 on “Let it Out”.

I would only add to this that one of my favorite full track mashups is Fugazi vs Destiny’s Child, melding “Waiting Room” with “Independent Woman.” The fact of the matter is that “Waiting Room” was just born to be a fun song, and it’s hopelessly sabotaged by Fugazi’s fundamentally anti-fun ideology. It takes the mash-up era to unleash the lurking genius in this tune.

Politics

Rep. Todd Akin: The Pilgrims Came To America To Flee ‘Unbiblical’ Socialism In The 1620′s

Today, millions of Americans celebrate Thanksgiving with their families. To mark this holiday, Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO) took to the floor of the House of Representatives on Tuesday to explain its history. At one point, he opined, “It might be helpful to think back and say there’s more to Thanksgiving than the Pilgrims.” He explained that they were “a group of people who were willing to change the system, to think of different ideas.” Akin continued, “They came here with the idea that after trying socialism that it wasn’t going to work. They realized that it was unbiblical, that it was a form of theft, so they pitched socialism out. They learned that in the 1620s”:

AKIN: It might be helpful to think back and say, there’s more to Thanksgiving than the Pilgrims. They were a group of people who were willing to change the system, to think of different ideas. They came here and separated civil and church governments. They came here and created the model of a written constitution, the idea that the government should be the servant of the people. […] They came here with the idea that after trying socialism that it wasn’t going to work. They realized that it was unbiblical, that it was a form of theft, so they pitched socialism out. They learned that in the early 1620’s.

Watch it:

Of course, the Pilgrims did not come to America to flee socialism and embrace capitalism “in the early 1620′s.” Socialism as an idea didn’t really even come into popularization until the 18th century and socialist political parties did not start to gain power and influence policies until more than a century after that. And it is difficult to see how socialism is unbiblical, given that the concept did not exist at the time of the writing of the Bible.

The real reason the Pilgrims came to the New World was to flee religious persecution. Thanksgiving is based around remembrance of the tale of how, in 1621, Native Americans helped the Pilgrims at Plymouth Colony survive harsh conditions by sharing their food with them. In other words, Thanksgiving is a parable about how people should take care of eachother and not just look out for themselves.

Yglesias

Reality Check

Something I find incredibly puzzling is the strange determination many progressive have to diagnose what the “problem” is with Democrats that makes them so “bad” at electoral politics. They actually seem to me to be fine. Look at the 30 year span from 1980 to 2010. The Democratic candidate won the popular vote in 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2008 (4 times) whereas the Republican candidate won in 1980, 1984, 1988, and 2004. It’s true that in the real world the poor ballot design in Palm Beach County, the Supreme Court, and the Electoral College put George W Bush in the White House but none of that is the fault of Democratic Party messaging tactics.

Democrats controlled the House for 18 out of those 30 years, and controlled the Senate for 14 out of 30 years. In the new year, they’ll control two out of the three branches of government. None of that sounds to me like a political party that’s having trouble persuading people to vote for it.

What’s more, you need some kind of baseline against which to judge this. Over the 60 year lifespan of the Federal Republic of Germany, Social Democrats have run the government for 20 years. Over the 50 year life of the 5th Republic in France, the Socialist Party has held the presidency for 14 years. The basic idea of a center-right party is that it represents a coalition of the business establishment with the socio-cultural mainstream. That tends to give you a dominant position in politics.

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