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Tim Phillips On Climate Policy: ‘If We Win The Science Argument, It’s Game, Set, And Match’

At an October blogger briefing at the Heritage Foundation, Americans For Prosperity president Tim Phillips explained his organization’s plans for defending global warming pollution. A day after his policy director, Phil Kerpen, claimed the organization did not question the science of climate change at a Center for American Progress Action Fund event, Phillips relished in the success of the “UK email scandals” for convincing people of a scientific “conspiracy,” saying “over the last ten years it appears it was cooling and not warming.” “If we win the science argument, I think it’s game, set, and match” for “the left,” he expounded. Phillips also discussed his plans as head of the astroturf group to make the Environmental Protection Agency an “albatross” and to kill “the myth of green jobs.”

Phillips has harnessed right-wing populist anger in the service of pollution giant Koch Industries on several fronts, especially to prevent any limits on greenhouse gas pollution. His organization’s propaganda efforts include attacks on climate legislation, with the “No Climate Tax” pledge signed by a large majority of freshmen Republicans, and the “Hot Air Tour” that has traveled around the country the last few summers. AFP’s “Regulation Reality” campaign attempts to demonize the Environmental Protection Agency. Their campaigns use a mix of false economic arguments, appeals to patriotic freedom, and support of global warming denial.

In 2011, Phillips announced, his organization plans to drive a wedge between Congress and the EPA, to increase attacks on climate science, and to attempt to discredit clean energy jobs, creating the impression that the American people support a pollution agenda (even though polls show the opposite).

Watch it:

“We have to make the Environmental Protection Agency an albatross”

They made it a political liability, guys like Ernie and others, and they pushed back on OSHA. And then there was proof that you could indeed take on a regulatory agency and push it back. We have to make the Environmental Protection Agency an albatross, a political albatross for members of Congress.

We launched a “regulation reality” effort earlier this year, we’re going to continue that — that goes around the country and lays out how the EPA is costing jobs, how it is driving up the cost of our goods which makes them less competitive, and it works. Members of Congress suddenly began paying attention when they’ve got small business owners and local folks, consumers, in their districts and states who were pounding them, saying “What the heck are you doing to me here?”

The number one thing I hear on the road at our events is the EPA. That’s the number one agency. Now the health care thing is looming on the horizon, but the EPA is what’s killing more jobs and inhibiting more job-creators than anything else out there.

“We started looking now at the scientific impact and the fact that over the last ten years it appears it was cooling and not warming”

We made a decision early on, we launched our effort on cap and trade and global warming about three years ago. We’ve been at it for a while. We made a decision that as a free-market group we would focus on the economic impact. So we’ve focused on job losses, there are some great studies out there. Heritage. We’ve used Heritage for the job-loss studies especially, and the National Association of Manufacturers, groups like that. We started looking now at the scientific impact and the fact that over the last ten years it appears it was cooling and not warming. Hence the name change, you notice how it went from “global warming” to “climate change.” Whenever the left gets in trouble, they change the name! It was liberals, now the public has repudiated liberalism, and now it’s “progressivism.” They did the same thing with “global warming” and switched over to “climate change.”

“If we win the science argument, I think it’s game, set, and match for them”

The one thing I know from the polling data that the American public knows there’s an economic liability. They clearly agree with us on that. And for the first time, in the last twelve months especially, I’ve seen a dramatic tilt among independents especially with regard to believing the science involved behind global warming. That was in the high seventies, a little as two years ago. High seventies said yeah, there’s scientific evidence for man-made global warming. That’s now dropping, depends on what poll you’re looking at, Gallup and others. That’s down in the low fifties now. That’s precarious for the left. Because they’ve already lost the economic argument. We’ve beaten them there. We’ve just got to keep pounding that argument. If we win the science argument, I think it’s game, set, and match for them.

“There is a conspiracy going on, there are people fixing the data”

I think the UK email scandals was probably the tipping point. I think that’s for the first time — you’d always had some outliers, I say that in a good way, not in a bad way, who were saying, hey wait a minute, there is a conspiracy going on, there are people fixing the data. I think that when those emails became public, the public looked at it and said wait a minute, here’s this supposedly UN, these UN scientists, and we’ve always — I think we hold scientists in high regard, and that’s a good thing, science is, uh, a good thing — but when it was clear from those email exchanges that they were manipulating data, and even hiding data that was not of advantage to them, that was a crucial tipping point on the science side.

I think the economic tipping point was $3 and $4 a gallon gas. When $4 a gallon gas happened two summers ago, remember when that kicked in? We noticed a dramatic uptick in turnout for our rallies, events, the pressure on the legislators, being willing to call and email. And the polling data confirmed that, saying that it was $4 a gallon gas. And then I think that the UK email scandal was the science side.

“How sad for the polar bears, right?”

And the other thing that we’re really pushing with allies is the myth of green jobs. I know many of you have been on this issue as well. What a great balloon to puncture. Because that’s the last leg they have to stand on. You noticed what the president, what the left talks about on this? It used to be the science. Then they began tilting away from the science and saving the polar bears to it’s the right thing to do, you know. And now it’s job creation. They’re literally reduced to a job creation argument. They don’t even talk about the polar bears any more. How sad for the polar bears, right? It’s wrong. But, now it’s job creation argument. That’s the last thing they’ve had. And it’s not a legitimate argument. I think the public is getting that.

Yglesias

The Karzai Factor

Kevin Drum comments on Hamid Karzai’s evident loss of faith in the NATO mission in Afghanistan:

From the U.S. point of view, of course, they key thing isn’t whether Karzai is tired or delusional or getting bad advice. What really matters is that over the past year he’s apparently come to the firm conclusion that a continued U.S. presence is unhelpful. This pretty plainly makes our military efforts in Afghanistan pointless. As Gen. Petraeus and his counterinsurgency gurus continually tell us, political support is crucial to eventual success. If we don’t have it — and it’s now about as clear as it can be that we don’t — then all the Lisbon conferences in the world won’t produce a plan for victory. It’s about time for Barack Obama to start leveling with the American public about this.

Well . . . that’d be nice, but when last we saw General Petraeus was moving US military tactics away from that kind of counterinsurgency model in favor of more use of firepower. And on some level I think the way this works is that “counterinsurgency” means whatever Petraeus and his proteges say it means. What’s more, if the US government decides Karzai’s attitude makes continuing the war impossible they might just as easily decide to get rid of Karzai as decide to end the war. I certainly hope it doesn’t come to that, but all the signs from the administration are that they’re absolutely determined to give this thing a few more years worth of time and all their other decisions seem to flow from that.

Politics

Former Republican Sen. Warns GOP May ‘Have Gone So Far Overboard That We Are Beyond Redemption’

In an age when far-right tea party activists have taken over the Republican Party and demanded lockstep allegiance, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) has been one of the few GOP lawmakers to step out of line. In particular, Lugar, the ranking GOP member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has blasted his own party for relentlessly blocking ratification of the New START nuclear arms treaty with Russia, calling on his fellow GOP senators to “do your duty for your country” and complete the pact.

Not surprisingly, this insubordination has earned Lugar significant scorn within the Republican base, which now seems to value blind obedience over principled independent decision-making. In a New York Times profile of Lugar published today, former GOP Sen. John Danforth feared that the backlash against Lugar from his own party signals that the GOP has gone “far overboard” with no hope of turning back:

“If Dick Lugar,” said John C. Danforth, a former Republican senator from Missouri, “having served five terms in the U.S. Senate and being the most respected person in the Senate and the leading authority on foreign policy, is seriously challenged by anybody in the Republican Party, we have gone so far overboard that we are beyond redemption.”

Mr. Danforth, who was first elected the same year as Mr. Lugar, added, “I’m glad Lugar’s there and I’m not.”

Danforth’s fears are not unfounded. Lugar, who is up for reelection in 2012, has already been targeted by tea party groups. “If I was Dick Lugar, I would certainly expect a challenge,” noted veteran political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. As Diane Hubbard, a spokeswoman for the Indianapolis Tea Party, told the Times, removing Lugar “will be a difficult challenge. But we do believe it’s doable, and we think the climate is right for it and we believe it is a must.”

Indeed, asked about a potential tea party challenge motivated by his breaks with the GOP on START and other issues, Lugar suggested the party has drifted to the right while he has stayed steady, saying, “These are just areas where I’ve had stances for a long time.”

Yglesias

The Robustness of the Nation-State

Nassim Taleb forecasts the future and says that within 15 years: “The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive, weakened by deficits, politicians’ misalignment of interests and the magnification of errors by centralised systems. The pre-modernist robust model of city-states and statelings will prevail, with obsessive fiscal prudence.”

Maybe so. And yet it seems to me that people have been predicting the nation-state’s demise for a long time and it seems like a very robust structure. If anything the trend I see toward greater adherence to a strict interpretation of what a nation-state is supposed to be. Belgium splitting in into two properly “national” states seems much more plausible than Los Angeles emerging as a quasi-sovereign entity.

Yglesias

Goodbye Reptiles

I went to the American Museum of Natural History yesterday to see see dinosaurs learn about science, and I was a bit distressed to learn that my favorite childhood museum wants to abolish the concept of “reptile” from our discourse. Apparently their fancy cladistics-based approach to species classification tells them that crocodiles are more closely related to birds than they are to lizards & snakes and that even the lizard & snake suite of creatures is closer to birds than they are to the turtles & tortoises. So reptiles aren’t a real natural kind. Amphibians are getting the same treatment.

One of the entrance halls to the museum is also bedecked with quotations from Theodore Roosevelt, a man who turns out to be full of excellent quips that express bad ideas. “If I must choose between righteousness and peace I choose righteousness,” the wall proclaims. Turns out he was talking about World War One where I guess he got neither.

Security

The Washington Post On Getting ‘Pushed Around’

While I share the frustration of the Washington Post’s editors at Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s rejection of President Obama’s call for international observers for Egypt’s imminent elections, I really had to marvel at the claim that “Mr. Mubarak’s rude dismissal of what have been gentle U.S. calls for change is making the Obama administration look weak in a region that can be quick to act on such perceptions“:

Mr. Obama should make it clear that he will not be dismissed or pushed around by Arab strongmen. If Mr. Mubarak gets away with it, others will be quick to follow his example.

Leaving aside the lazy Orientalism on display here (is there some other region of the world where leaders are rewarded for looking weak?), if Mubarak does imagine that the Obama administration can be “pushed around,” it’s obviously not difficult to imagine where he got the idea, given that Obama has spent the last eighteen months being stiff-armed by a different Middle Eastern leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, as he has tried to hold Israel to its obligations to halt settlements.

The Post’s editors have, of course, taken a decidedly different view in that dispute. Rather than recognize the administration’s position on settlements for what it is — a long-overdue corrective to years of U.S. indulgence of Israel’s entirely illegal and hugely provocative settlement enterprise — the editors warned from the outset that “President Obama’s battle against Jewish settlements could prove self-defeating.”

During the dust-up resulting from the settlement announcement during Vice President Biden’s March 2010 visit to Israel, the Post’s editors interpreted the Obama administration’s “determin[ation] to prove that they will not be pushed around by Israel” as “quickness to bludgeon the Israeli government.”

According to the Post, when Obama’s requests are rejected by Mubarak, Obama is in danger of looking weak in the face of Arab intransigence. When Obama’s requests are (repeatedly) rejected by Netanyahu, Obama has made a tactical error and must try to be nicer.

There are certainly criticisms to be made about the way the Obama team has gone about dealing with the settlements issue, but their function as a driver of Palestinian anger and suspicion and the danger they pose to a viable two-state solution aren’t in serious dispute. Likewise, the Mubarak government’s decades of repression of political opposition is a driver of extremism and undermines U.S. support for democracy elsewhere (we’ll leave aside for now how addressing that problem was made an order of magnitude more difficult by the Iraq war, for which the Post editors were, and remain, head cheerleaders).

Democracy promotion is an important element of U.S. foreign policy, and it’s troubling to see Obama rebuffed by Egypt like this. It’s also true that it sends a bad signal to other leaders. But let’s not pretend the problem began with Mubarak. As Seymour Reich, former chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, noted in a letter to the Post yesterday, Obama’s struggle with Netanyahu “reinforces the perception, especially in the Middle East, of a weakened United States.” I heard this same analysis from more than one Israeli official this past summer. But it’s apparently novel to the Washington Post’s editors.

Yglesias

Kenyan Bicycle Socialism

Apparently the Capital Bikeshare network includes a secret station located inside the White House security perimeter:

Located just inside the gate on State Place at 17th St, NW the station can only be used by those who can actually get inside the White House’s security perimeter. And it’s for that reason, not national security, that it doesn’t show up on the map. DDOT doesn’t want users making plans based on that station and then finding they can’t get to it.

According to DDOT the station, which only has 9 docks, does get used by daily commuters.

This seems in some ways like it would put a large hole in White House security procedures.

Security

Scowcroft on START: ‘Partisan’ GOP Doesn’t Want To Give Obama ‘A Foreign Policy Victory’

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) has been the leading Senate Republican urging the upper chamber of Congress to ratify the New START arms control treaty with Russia. However, the Republican obstructionism that has become so routine throughout the past two years of President Obama’s tenure is standing in the way. Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) has been the face of the GOP hamstringing and despite the fact that this non-controversial treaty — one that closely mirrors the one President Reagan signed with the Soviet Union — has been thoroughly debated in the Senate for nearly a year, Kyl told the New York Times, “If they try to jam us [in the lame-duck session], if they try to bring this up the week before Christmas, it’ll be defeated.”

Lugar has been reluctant to criticize his colleagues’ obstruction. When asked last week if they were just playing politics, Lugar said, “I am not ascribing motivations to anybody.” But other Republicans don’t seem to be holding back. Brent Scowcroft served as national security adviser to two Republican presidents and has been pleading with Congress to ratify New START. Profiling Lugar’s awkward position vis-a-vis other Senate Republicans on this issue, Politico reports today that Scrowcroft isn’t being as diplomatic as Lugar on the GOP’s incentive for holding up START:

In an attempt to rally bipartisan support for the treaty, the White House has enlisted the kind of GOP foreign policy wise men that Lugar exemplifies – among them former secretaries of state Henry Kissinger and James A. Baker. But they have had no success with members of their own party, and it has left them scratching their heads over the source of the GOP opposition.

“It’s not clear to me what it is,” said Brent Scowcroft, a former national security adviser to President George H.W. Bush who noted that this START treaty is not very different from previous ones negotiated and ratified under Republican presidents. “I’ve got to think that it’s the increasingly partisan nature and the desire for the president not to have a foreign policy victory.”

The GOP opposition to START has become so laughable that even some are invoking Reagan. Indiana state senator Mike Delph, who may challenge Lugar in a primary, criticized Lugar’s support for START, saying last week that Obama and Lugar “need to remember Reagan’s philosophy of Peace through Strength.”

Outside of Scowcroft, the obvious partisanship surrounding the Kyl-led obstruction hasn’t gone unnoticed. The Wonk Room’s Max Bergmann notes that “the nation’s major newspapers, members of the military and even many Republicans have publicly denounced Kyl and Senate Republicans for their START objection.”

Yglesias

What’s Going On?

These “What’s Going On Here?” signs at NYC construction sites (which seem to be a Bloomberg-era innovation that I don’t recall from growing up) are pretty cool:

People like to know what’s happening in their community and I think feel better about change if they feel like they’re in the loop. This is a good idea that DC and other cities should adopt.

Climate Progress

What should Obama’s message be? His current one certainly makes no sense.

Obama has been saying (erroneously) for two years now that Republicans have good policy ideas for creating jobs, whereas Republicans have been saying (erroneously) for two years that Obama has job-killing policies.  Is it any wonder he had a shellacking in the 2010 election?

This is the worst White House in decades at communications, as one journalist who has covered five presidents told me recently.  Of course, you don’t have to have been around that long to see how dreadful their messaging is [see "Can Obama deliver health and energy security with a half (assed) message?") and links below].

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