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Efficient Advertising

Tom Lee on the paradox of better-targeted advertising:

But Google’s a huge success in a landscape of failure. Online ads sell for pathetic rates relative to broadcast or print. This is because by all accounts online advertising doesn’t work very well. You can measure whether someone clicks on an ad, and often whether they buy something after that click. But it turns out they rarely do those things. So businesses aren’t willing to pay very much for ad space on websites.

Is it really a coincidence that the advertising medium with the best instrumentation also appears to be the least effective? I suspect it’s not. It may be that ads never worked as well as the industry had told us; or it may be that the eyeballs/clicks/conversions funnel is a naive conceptualization of how the system works. Either way, Google has succeeded by giving advertisers what they think they want, which is analytic tools that seem to reveal that the whole enterprise is horribly ineffective.

To those of us on the editorial side of online media this is a very frustrating dynamic. It’s hard to make money writing online because the advertising rates are pathetic compared to what was historically available in print. And the rates are pathetic because the utilization rates are pathetic. But what kind of click-throughs did those glossy magazine ads get? Something here doesn’t add up.

Climate Progress

Scientists Fight Inhofe Attack On Climate Fund

The Wonk Room is reporting and tweeting live from the international climate talks in Cancun, Mexico.

Jim InhofeA group of four Republican senators, led by climate denier Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), have lashed out at the Obama administration’s efforts to protect the poorest and most vulnerable people of the world from climate disasters. Inhofe, Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), and Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) wrote a letter to President Barack Obama telling him to drop an international adaptation fund for the least developed nations — part of the Copenhagen Accord signed last year by President Obama and over 130 other nations. Under Democratic leadership, the United States appropriated $1.3 billion for the climate fund in 2010 (compared to $136.8 billion for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan). After citing the budget deficit and high unemployment as reasons not to invest in protecting the vulnerable, the senators attacked the scientific basis for taking action:

In addition, several of the findings of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concerning the eventual impacts of climate change in developing countries were found to be exaggerated or simply not true. We understand that reforms of the IPCC process are currently underway and we believe that no American taxpayer dollars should be committed to a global climate fund based on information that is not accurate.

The Wonk Room contacted the Climate Science Rapid Response Team, a new volunteer effort by top scientists, to find out what they thought about the claim that the threat to the developing world is too uncertain for the United States to act.

“This is a dishonest climate change denier myth,” top climate scientist Michael Mann, director of the Penn State Earth System Science Center, explained. The senators are referring to two or three errors in the thousand-page impacts report that are “so insubstantial that they didn’t even make the summary for policy makers or the technical summary report.”

Dr. Gary Yohe, the Huffington Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies at Wesleyan University, charged the senators with “misdirection and misrepresentation”:

They are continuing an effort of misdirection and misrepresentation so that the debate does not focus on the issue – the urgent need for adaptation and the value to the United States of investing in adaptation (around the world).

Dr. Spencer Weart, a physicist and leading science historian, told us that “senators are incorrect in their claim that there are substantial errors in the IPCC’s evaluation of the science of impacts of climate change on developing nations”:

Unless the senators can point to serious deficiencies in the actual main conclusions about impacts of the IPCC report — which they have not done and cannot do — the prudent thing is to take the IPCC’s severe warnings about impacts at face value and prepare accordingly.

The senators have received a collective $5.1 million from the fossil fuel industry in campaign contributions.

Dr. Weart’s full response debunks in detail the senators’ letter: Read more

Yglesias

Creative Destruction and the Welfare State

Recently, the rise of digital cameras put a lot of firms in the film and film-development trade out of business. But now it seems that smartphones are killing the market for point-and-shoot digital cameras.

Adam Ozimek observes that this is an example of “creative destruction” in action and says we should “[k]eep stories like these in your head for when someone argues that we are worse off because of some creative destruction.”

And perhaps we should. To me, though, what keeping these stories in mind mostly does is drive home the case for a reasonably generous welfare state. As we see here, the ebbs and flows of technological change have profound implications for the organization of the economy. And while the forward march of technology is definitely a good thing, the metaphor that “a rising tide lifts all boats” is badly inadequate. The economic sea churns a lot, and it’s very easy for decent, competent, hardworking people to suddenly find themselves worse off than they were the year before through no fault of their own. The guy with the film development shop didn’t suddenly become lazier or less skilled the day his business became unviable, but he took an economic hit nonetheless. This churn and the attendant levels of risk and anxiety that it creates are an undesirable feature of the capitalist order. And the welfare state is the answer.

Security

As Climate Talks Plod Along, The World Burns

As the world’s environmental ministers arrive in Cancun, Mexico, for the 19th year of negotiations to address global warming pollution, new climate disasters are killing people across the planet. The slow-moving climate talks are hobbled by insufficient ambition, and uncertainty over whether the United States or China — the world’s largest climate polluters — will follow through with their Copenhagen Accord commitments. The Obama administration’s stated commitment to cut pollution by 17 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels, after Republican climate deniers killed cap-and-trade legislation, now depends on whether the Environmental Protection Agency’s planned greenhouse standards survive a polluter onslaught.

Meanwhile, the building heat trapped by billions of tons of fossil fuel pollution is fueling catastrophic changes in the world’s climate system “here and now“:

– The worst wildfires in Israel’s history, fueled by record warmth and drought, “have destroyed large sections of Israel’s northern area” and killed 41 people. Four days of intense fire fighting during the celebration of Hanukkah, with assistance from Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Russia, France, Britain, Switzerland, Spain, US, Germany, Bulgaria, Italy, Azerbaijan and others, have finally begun to bring the devastation under control.

– Forty-two separate wildfires are burning in neighboring Lebanon, which has the same tinderbox conditions.

– Dynamic winter-storm systems driven by the rapidly warming Arctic have plunged much of Europe into killer cold weather for the second year in a row, months after a summer of record heat and precipitation. Up to 30 people have frozen to death in Poland, and thirty more were killed in the rest of Europe.

Floods have hit Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia after “three weeks of torrential rains,” forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands of people.

– Thousands of people have been evacuated amid catastrophic floods in Australia that have already destroyed $500 million in crops, with rivers still rising.

– Thunderstorms, high winds and tornadoes ripped through the southern United States, injuring at least 30 people, destroying buildings, toppling trees, flooding highways and forcing schools to close.

– New Zealand is facing an intense heatwave and its third consecutive summer of drought.

Speaking at the funeral of a teenage volunteer firefighter, Israeli President Shimon Peres said the wildfire “disaster taught us that all of us, Jews, Arabs, Druze, and other peoples, share the same fate.” If the climate negotiators in Cancun can find the same sense of solidarity in crisis shown in their home countries, there could be reason for hope.

Brad Johnson is reporting and tweeting live from the international climate talks in Cancun, Mexico.

Update

Also:

– “The death toll from the incessant rains in Venezuela has risen to 34,” with “more than 70,000 people who have been affected” by the catastrophic floods.

– “As many as 200 people may have been buried in a landslide Sunday that swept over 10 houses near Medellin, Colombia’s second largest city,” as the country “has been lashed in recent weeks by heavy rains that have left at least 176 people dead and 225 injured, as well as 1.5 million people homeless nationwide.”

– In India, “more than 150 people have died following heavy rains in the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu over the past few days.”

Climate Progress

As Climate Talks Plod Along, The World Burns

The Wonk Room is reporting and tweeting live from the international climate talks in Cancun, Mexico.

As the world’s environmental ministers arrive in Cancun, Mexico, for the 19th year of negotiations to address global warming pollution, new climate disasters are killing people across the planet. The slow-moving climate talks are hobbled by insufficient amibition, and uncertainty over whether the United States or China — the world’s largest climate polluters — will follow through with their Copenhagen Accord commitments. The Obama administration’s stated commitment to cut pollution by 17 percent by 2020 from 2005 levels, after Republican climate deniers killed cap-and-trade legislation, now depends on whether the Environmental Protection Agency’s planned greenhouse standards survive a polluter onslaught.

Meanwhile, the building heat trapped by billions of tons of fossil fuel pollution is fueling catastrophic changes in the world’s climate system predicted years ago by scientists:

– The worst wildfires in Israel’s history, fueled by record warmth and drought, “have destroyed large sections of Israel’s northern area” and killed 41 people. Four days of intense battle during the celebration of Hanukkah, with assistance from Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Russia, France, Britain, Switzerland, Spain, US, Germany, Bulgaria, Italy, Azerbaijan and others, have finally begun to bring the devastation under control.

– Forty-two separate wildfires are burning in neighboring Lebanon, which has the same tinderbox conditions.

– Dynamic winter-storm systems driven by the rapidly warming Arctic have plunged much of Europe into killer cold weather for the second year in a row, months after a summer of record heat and precipitation. Up to 30 people have frozen to death in Poland, and thirty more killed in the rest of Europe.

Floods have hit Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia after “three weeks of torrential rains,” forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands of people.

– Thousands of people have been evacuated amid catastrophic floods in Australia that have already destroyed $500 million in crops, with rivers still rising.

Thunderstorms, high winds and tornadoes ripped through the southern United States, injuring at least 30 people, destroying buildings, toppling trees, flooding highways and forcing schools to close.

– New Zealand is facing an intense heatwave and its third consecutive summer of drought.

– “The death toll from the incessant rains in Venezuela has risen to 34,” with “more than 70,000 people who have been affected” by the catastrophic floods.

– “As many as 200 people may have been buried in a landslide Sunday that swept over 10 houses near Medellin, Colombia’s second largest city,” as the country “has been lashed in recent weeks by heavy rains that have left at least 176 people dead and 225 injured, as well as 1.5 million people homeless nationwide.”

– In India, “more than 150 people have died following heavy rains in the coastal districts of Tamil Nadu over the past few days.”

– A “massive wildfire in Tibet‘s Sichuan province killed 22 people, including Chinese soldiers during a rescue operation” on Sunday.

Speaking at the funeral of a teenage volunteer firefighter, President Shimon Peres said the wildfire “disaster taught us that all of us, Jews, Arabs, Druze, and other peoples, share the same fate.” If the climate negotiators in Cancun can find the same sense of solidarity in crisis shown in their home countries, there could be reason for hope.

Yglesias

To Defend Everything Is to Defend Nothing

I’m not sure if this will meet Kevin Drum’s odd demand that people refrain from making reason-based arguments about terrorism because many people have irrational reactions to violence, but I think there’s a strong case to be made against airport-style security at the Washington Monument.

The key issue, I think, is that if you’ve got an armed man in Washington DC eager and willing to kill and die in a holy war against America, he’s not going to just give up and go home simply because we’ve put metal detectors at the Washington Monument. Maybe he’ll shoot up the Pentagon City mall instead. Or maybe the Portrait Gallery. Or a movie theater. Or a crowded bar at happy hour. There are big crowds all across America and attempting to erect impenetrable static security at all of them would be a disaster. So you need to set priorities. And it’s clear to me why it makes sense for the White House to have much higher security than a movie theater. And it also makes sense for Capitol and the Supreme Court to have very high security. A lesser level of security would be appropriate for the various federal agency buildings around DC, but still higher security than we have at the movie theater.

But would the impact—in terms of lives lost, in terms of the national psyche, or in terms of the orderly conduct of everyday life—of an attack on the Washington Monument really be significantly different than an attack on a movie theater? I don’t really see it.

The point is that there are just way, way, way, way, way too many “soft targets” all across the country to harden them all in the way being contemplated for the Washington Monument. We need to focus static security on a smaller set of high-priority locations. For the rest we’re going to need to rely on proactive security via law enforcement and intelligence.

Politics

Republican Sen. Lugar: GOP ‘Must Never Be The Party Of No’

Throughout the 111th Congress, Republicans have pulled every stunt not only to obstruct the Democrat’s agenda, but also to prevent progress on any issue — including ones that have traditionally attracted bipartisan support. The lame duck session is proving to be no exception.

However, there is one Republican Senator who does appear willing to reach across the aisle. Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) is a co-sponsor of the DREAM Act and has been leading the push to take up the New START arms control agreement. This morning, on CNN’s State of the Union with Candy Crowley, Lugar explained the logic behind his positions, stating the GOP must “never be the party of no”:

LUGAR: Many would say, and have said, “why do anything President Obama wants — something that gives him a victory?” Therefore, we’re the party of no. I think some of us said, “No, we are not the party of no. We must never be the party of no.”

CROWLEY: Are you winning or losing that side?

LUGAR: Oh, I think that remains to be seen. [...] The American people — angry as they are with Democrats with the tsunami that came in the election — are finally going to say to the Republicans, “Okay, now what are you guys going to do? What is your program?”

“Our program is to stop Obama,” some would say. “Our program is to defeat Obama. It’s a two-staged process. You defeat the Democrats first of all in the Congress and then you defeat Obama. Then, then we’ll come out and we’ll tell you.”

Well that’s not going to work. At some point there really has to be constructive Republican programs.

Watch it:

Lugar is up for reelection next year and the Tea Party has already warned that his positions may cost him his seat. Former GOP Sen. John Danforth is more worried about what the backlash against Lugar says about his own party. “We have gone so far overboard that we are beyond redemption,” stated Danforth about the Republican Party’s attack on Lugar. Nonetheless, Lugar is sticking to his guns, daring the Tea Party to challenge him in the 2012 Senate primary.

During his interview, Lugar also credited Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) with standing up to an obstructive, “rebellious” faction of the Republican Party. However, McConnell himself has indicated that “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”

Yglesias

Things to Disagree About

David Boaz observes that inflation-adjusted federal spending tends to increase steadily even as the political winds fluctuate:

But the bottom line is: If we have two parties for a reason, because they believe in different things, why don’t we some real differences in the growth of federal spending?

Is this really such a hard question? It’s just that the disagreements between the parties must be about something else than the fake fight over “spending.” For example, “what should we spend money on?” Or, “how should the burden of taxes be distributed?”

But on the spending front, let’s note this. Barack Obama proposed a deficit-financed extension of some of the Bush tax cuts. Congressional Republicans calculated, accurately, that Obama was so committed to the goal of extending some of the Bush tax cuts that they could hold this goal hostage and force concessions on other issues. This would have been a golden opportunity, for example, to say they would only vote for Obama’s precious tax cuts if Obama agreed to offsetting spending cuts. But they didn’t do that. Instead they said they would block Obama’s tax cuts unless Obama agreed to additional “rich people only” tax cuts. That’s a real, meaningful disagreement, one that’s typical of our times, but it’s not a disagreement about the quantity of spending.

Politics

Gingrich: Let Rich People Decide How Long Their Tax Cuts Last

Appearing on Fox News Sunday, disgraced former House Speaker Newt Gingrich proposed an odd method for determining how long to extend the Bush tax cuts for the very wealthy — ask the very wealthy how long they want them:

What Republicans ought to do is say to people who create jobs, how many years does the tax code need to be extended for you to make an investment decision? I mean, the goal’s not to have an annual extension of the current tax code, and then have every business in the country trapped saying, “I don’t know.  I want to make a 20 year investment in a factory.” … There is a number, but I would have the business leadership of the country describe the number.

Yet, while Gingrich is perfectly happy to let the nation’s foxes decide what to do with the henhouse, he takes a very different view of how Congress should treat the most vulnerable Americans. In practically the same breath that he proposes giving a massive tax cut to Paris Hilton, he also suggests that “we change the entire [unemployment benefits] program into a worker training program and not give anybody money for doing nothing.” Watch it:

Gingrich’s proposal, to cut off unemployment benefits while giving a massive windfall to the most fortunate, is a recipe for skyrocketing unemployment.  The economy grows by nearly two dollars for every dollar spent on unemployment benefits “because recipients typically spend all of their benefit payments quickly.” The money “ripples through the economy into supermarkets, gasoline stations, utilities, convenience stores.” Flush with the revenue provided by these new consumers, those businesses are then able to hire additional workers and diminish the ranks of the unemployed.

Tax cuts for the rich, on the other hand, are only marginally more useful than simply burning the money.  Indeed, corporate America is presently sitting on a massive $1.6 trillion in cash reserves, but their actions in recent months demonstrate that business leaders would rather let this money grow mold than actually spend it to put Americans back to work. Gingrich offers no explanation for why simply giving the rich even more money to hoard will magically cause them to spend it on hiring people.

Moreover, while Gingrich’s proposed windfall for the Kardashians would no doubt win wide support from the superrich CEOs he wants to set tax policy, his idea is massively out of step with the rest of the country. Only 26 percent of Americans believe that Donald Trump needs another tax cuts. Likewise, Americans reject Gingrich’s plan to let the unemployed eat cake by a massive 3 to 1 margin.

Politics

‘John McWeasel’ Tells 9/11 First Responder That ‘I Can’t Help You’

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has indicated that, this coming week, he will bring a 9/11 first responders bill up for a vote. The bill, which has been passed by the House, would provide $7.4 billion in medical treatment and lost wages for workers who were sickened and injured by their service at Ground Zero.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s (D-NY) office indicated that the chances for invoking cloture (ie, getting 60 votes to overcome a filibuster) hinge on getting more Republican support. “We still need one more Republican to come on board,” said a Gillibrand spokesman.

With that hurdle in mind, tow truck driver T.J. Gilmartin, “who hauled ruined FDNY vehicles away from Ground Zero and now suffers from breathing problems, headed to Washington this week to lobby” for the 9/11 health bill. Gilmartin described this rude and depressing encounter he had with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ):

“I thought I could talk to him. I mean, he’s a real hero, not like us. We’re just little half heroes.

“Our country took care of him when he came back. He was a POW. I respect that.

“I wasn’t stalking him or anything, but then I saw him in a hallway going to an elevator near the rotunda.

“It was a floor up from where they have the badges.

“I stepped in front of him, and I was very respectful. I told him who I was and I asked for his help on the Zadroga bill.

“It lasted maybe 10 or 15 seconds.

“He said ‘Thank you for your service.’

“And ‘I can’t help you.’

“Then, bang, he stepped around me and onto the elevator.

“If his eyes were daggers, I’d be dead. They’d all be in my heart.

“John McCain was pathetic. I would have thought more of him.”

McCain’s “pathetic” attitude towards a 9/11 first responder earned him this cover headline from the New York Daily News yesterday:

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