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Yglesias

Mankiw’s Strange Advice

Based on his experience as a Republican Party operative, Greg Mankiw is in fact well-positioned to give Barack Obama advice on how to reach compromise with Republican Party politicians. But based on his track-record as a Republican Party operative, Greg Mankiw is also the kind of guy who might engage in dishonest propaganda activities designed to make Republican Party politicians look good and their opponents look bad. His advice column seems clearly geared toward priority number two:

But now it is time to pivot and address the long-term fiscal problem. In last year’s proposed budget, you projected a rising debt-to-G.D.P. ratio for as far as the eye can see. That is not sustainable. Conservatives believe that if the nation credibly addresses this long-term problem, such a change will bolster confidence and have positive short-run effects as well.

It may or may not be the case that addressing the long-term fiscal problem is a good idea. But there’s no reason to believe this is a viable basis for a political compromise. Consider:

  • When budget surpluses were projected 10 years ago, this was described by Republicans as a policy problem to be solved by tax cuts.
  • When Republicans controlled the government, they consistently acted to make deficits larger.
  • Republicans opposed the deficit-reducing Affordable Care Act.
  • Republicans opposed the deficit-reducing American Climate and Energy Security Act.
  • Republicans opposed the deficit-reducing DREAM Act.
  • When Barack Obama proposed some deficit-increasing tax cuts, Republicans insisted that they would go along if and only if he added additional deficit increasing tax cuts.
  • Republicans are planning to replace deficit-mitigating PAYGO rules with deficit increasing CUTGO rules.

Note that this is not a new development. There was a major battle within the Republican Party in the 1970s between a moderate faction associated with Dwight Eisenhower and Gerald Ford and a conservative faction associated with Ronald Reagan. One key issue at that time was whether the focus should be on deficits or on low tax rates for rich people. And the conservatives won the battle. That’s why since 1980, the more conservatives you elect the bigger the deficit you get.

Rather than listening to Mankiw, my advice to Obama would be to take the lessons of history seriously. Republicans are deeply interested in lower tax rates on high-income individuals. There may or may not be other things they care about on some level, but the party’s level of concern about all other issues pales in comparison to its level of concern about lowering tax rates on high-income individuals. Policy compromises, if they’re reached, are overwhelmingly likely to involve Obama agreeing to lower tax rates on high-income individuals in exchange for Republicans agreeing to something else. That “something else” might entail net deficit reduction (as in the 1997 budget deal) or net deficit increases (as in the 2010 tax deal) depending on what it is Obama wants to ask for. But what Republicans want is lower tax rates on high-income people.

Yglesias

Gorgon Stare

Ellen Nakashima and Craig Whitlock report for the Washington Post on the US military’s latest initiative in its never-ending quest to solve political problems with technological solutions:

This winter, the Air Force is set to deploy to Afghanistan what it says is a revolutionary airborne surveillance system called Gorgon Stare, which will be able to transmit live video images of physical movement across an entire town.

The system, made up of nine video cameras mounted on a remotely piloted aircraft, can transmit live images to soldiers on the ground or to analysts tracking enemy movements. It can send up to 65 different images to different users; by contrast, Air Force drones today shoot video from a single camera over a “soda straw” area the size of a building or two.

Most of all, this seems like a sad example of the decline of classical education in the United States. If you take current Air Force surveillance technology and ask “in what ways does this differ from the gaze of a gorgon” the natural response is “when you look into a gorgon’s eyes, you turn to stone, whereas today’s USAF surveillance has no petrification powers whatsoever.” The Gorgon Stare initiative appears to improve on current surveillance in a variety of ways, but involves absolutely no turning of anything into stone.

Politics

George Will Calls GOP Opposition To Raising Debt Ceiling ‘Suicidal’

Over the past few weeks, several Republicans have followed the Tea Party’s lead in declaring that they will vote against any increase in the national debt ceiling. Today, on Meet the Press, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) drew a thick line in the sand, declaring, “I’m not going to vote for a debt ceiling increase unless we go back to 2008 spending levels, cutting the discretionary spending.”

On ABC’s This Week, conservative columnist George Will responded to Republican opposition to raising the national debt ceiling and the threat it poses to the fiscal solvency of the nation:

I know of no other developed nation that has a debt ceiling. This is a purely recurring symbolic vote to make people feel good by voting against it.

The trouble is it’s suicidal if you should happen to miscalculate and have all kinds of people voting against it as a symbolic vote and turn out to be a majority. Because if the United States defaults on its sovereign debt, the markets will be — well, it will be stimulating.

Watch it:

Will’s analysis echoed remarks made earlier by Austan Goolsbee, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, on ABC’s This Week. “The debt ceiling is not something to toy with,” stated Goolsbee. “If we get to the point where you’ve damaged the full faith and credit of the United States, that would be the first default in history caused purely by insanity.” Goolsbee also noted that the impact of blocking a debt ceiling raise on the economy would be “catastrophic” and would bring on “a worse financial economic crisis than anything we saw in 2008.”

Climate Progress

High Water: Hottest year ends with unprecedented, “biblical” Australian floods covering an area the size of France and Germany combined.

3-month rainfall totals for Queensland
(1200 mm = 4 feet)

http://www.bom.gov.au/web03/ncc/www/awap/rainfall/totals/3month/colour/latest.qd.hres.gif

One of the most basic predictions of climate science is that global warming will cause more intense precipitation.  As Dr. Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, explained it, “there is a systematic influence on all of these weather events now-a-days because of the fact that there is this extra water vapor lurking around in the atmosphere than there used to be say 30 years ago. It’s about a 4% extra amount, it invigorates the storms, it provides plenty of moisture for these storms and it’s unfortunate that the public is not associating these with the fact that this is one manifestation of climate change. And the prospects are that these kinds of things will only get bigger and worse in the future.”

Last year appears to have been the hottest year on record — and it saw an astonishing amount of intense rainfall from Nashville’s ‘Katrina’ to the great Pakistani deluge.” And so it should be no surprise that the year ends with another unprecedented deluge of “biblical proportion.”  Meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters has the tale of the tape:

Read more

Politics

New Sen. Mike Lee Defends Hiring Energy Lobbyist As Chief Of Staff

Incoming Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) ran as a tea party candidate, who claimed to be determined to change how business was done in Washington. Yet on Fox News Sunday this morning, Lee was asked by Chris Wallace why if his goal was to “drain the swamp” would he pick to have an energy lobbyist as his Chief of Staff? Lee responded that he wasn’t “scared” of lobbyists and that his lobbyist was “brilliant”:

WALLACE: Senator Lee, you have chosen an energy lobbyist as your Chief of Staff. Is that the right person to drain the swamp here in Washington?

LEE: I’ve hired the brightest political mind, political consultant, and lobbyist in Utah – a man named Spencer Stokes. He’s a brilliant man. He understands Utah politics and he understands Washington politics and I need a man like that to help me in Washington.

WALLACE: And you’re not scared off by the fact that he is a lobbyist?

LEE:  Ahh no, he’s a lobbyist and he’s a political consultant and I am not scared off by that. He and I share a common vision

Watch it:

Lee joins many other incoming Republicans, such as incoming Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) and Rand Paul (R-KY) who, despite rhetoric of cleaning up Washington, have all hired lobbyists. As the Washington Post reported last month, “Many incoming GOP lawmakers have hired registered lobbyists as senior aides. Several of the candidates won with strong support from the anti-establishment tea party movement… these cases illustrate the endurance of Washington’s traditional power structure, even in the wake of an election dominated by insurgent rhetoric.”

Yglesias

The Annals of History

From the 1988 Democratic Party Platform:

WE BELIEVE that illegal drugs pose a direct threat to the security of our nation from coast to coast, invading our neighborhoods, classrooms, homes and communities large and small; that every arm and agency of government at every federal, state and local level—including every useful diplomatic, military, educational, medical and law enforcement effort necessary—should at long last be mobilized and coordinated with private efforts under the direction of a National Drug “Czar” to halt both the international supply and the domestic demand for illegal drugs now ravaging our country; and that the legalization of illicit drugs would represent a tragic surrender in a war we intend to win. We believe that this effort should include comprehensive programs to educate our children at the earliest ages on the dangers of alcohol and drug abuse, readily available treatment and counseling for those who seek to address their dependency, the strengthening of vital interdiction agencies, such as the U.S. Coast Guard and Customs, a summit of Western hemispheric nations to coordinate efforts to cut off drugs at the source, and foreign development assistance to reform drug-based economies by promoting crop substitution.

Democrats may not have won the election, but at least they got their “drug czar” job created and it’s policy wins that really count.

Climate Progress

What we’re up against: Polluter-funded Tea Party climate zombie astroturfing

Rebel Without a Clue gets Americans for Prosperity’s anti-efficiency, anti-science indoctrination at Cancun

Two years ago, [Gena] Bell was a floral arranger in Cincinnati with plenty of time on her hands (she used to trim five Christmas trees in her suburban house) and strong opinions about the direction in which the United States was going (down).

Now, she was a full-time political activist, the head of a fast-growing Ohio tea party group and an influential voice in the movement. Influential enough that Americans for Prosperity, one of the most well-heeled tea party backers in the country, had invited her to help protest a U.N. climate change conference in Cancun.

It bothered her that no one had told her why she had been invited, or just what she would be doing. But she hadn’t pushed too hard to find out before saying yes. It was tough to turn down a trip to Mexico in December.

Assuming we destroy a livable climate for our children and countless future generations, future historians (and our other billions of victims) will have many decades (if not centuries) of misery to contemplate why the richest country in the world, one built on scientific and technological ingenuity, refused to spend a small fraction of our wealth to avert multiple ever-worsening catastrophes that science projected we risk on our current emissions path (see “A stunning year in climate science reveals that human civilization is on the precipice” and “ Why even strong climate action has such a low total cost“).

They will no doubt study the failure of the Obama administration to seize the once-in-a-generation opportunity — the one brief shining moment where we had a Democratic president plus large majorities in the House and Senate (see “The failed presidency of Barack Obama, Part 2:  He let die our best chance to preserve a livable climate and restore US leadership in clean energy — without a serious fight”).  They’ll examine How the status quo media failed on climate change.

http://games.gearlive.com/blogimages/head_asplode.jpgBut ultimately, they will focus on the most successful and immoral disinformation campaign in human history — the anti-science, pro-pollution lies of the Merchants of Doubt.  They will marvel at how that disinformation campaign captured an entire political party (see National Journal: “The GOP is stampeding toward an absolutist rejection of climate science that appears unmatched among major political parties around the globe, even conservative ones”).

Their review should include this stunning front-page Washington Post story from Saturday, “Tea-party activists question if rebel political movement has changed for worse” — yes the headline is oxymoronic:  How could a movement that from the start was backed by big corporate polluters and helping to plunge the nation and the world into climate chaos possibly change for the ‘worse’?  But I digress.

The story of Gena Bell is a cautionary tale.  I’ll excerpt the climate-related parts below.  Warning:  This is a two-head-vise story.

Read more

Yglesias

Chris Christie Should Do His Second-Most-Important Job Properly

Steve Benen flags Chris Christie’s defense of leaving the state governorless amidst the snowstorm by, among other things, saying “My first and most important responsibility, in my view, is as a husband and a father.”

In a Real Talk sense, I think this is false. But be that as it may. What about Christie’s work in his second most important job? New Jersey, historically, hasn’t had the office of lieutenant governor. But the state authorities decided very recently that was a bad idea and created one. It’s really not a post that carries with it a ton of responsibilities, but filling in for the governor if a situation develops while he’s on vacation in Florida is on the list. Under the circumstances, it seems pretty clear that the governor and the lieutenant governor shouldn’t go on vacation simultaneously and that the governor should put some effort into working this out. Failure to coordinate the schedules properly hardly makes Christie history’s greatest monster, but it was an error. An error that nine times out of ten probably would have gone unnoticed, but the snowstorm meant the error turned into a problem for the state. The decent response to a small-but-real error is just to apologize and move on but Christie’s managed to turn an asshole persona into national YouTube stardom so I guess he thinks it’s best to act like a jerk.

Climate Progress

Energy and global warming news for January 2, 2011: Deutsche Bank calls coal “a dead man walking”; New solar cell is 98% plastic and catches a whopping 85% of collectible sunlight

Deutsche Bank predicts coal’s share of electric power generation will tumble further, from 47 percent in 2009 to 34 percent in 2020 and 22 percent in 2030.

Coal’s burnout: Have investors moved on to cleaner energy sources?

The headline news for the coal industry in 2010 was what didn’t happen: Construction did not begin on a single new coal-fired power plant in the United States for the second straight year.

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