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Yglesias

China’s Next Generation of Leaders

Geoff Dyer reads some interesting tea leaves out of the Chinese succession:

The holiday is a time to pay respects to family elders and mentors. I know people in their forties and fifties who still visit their favourite school teacher over the break and among the upper -echelons of the Chinese Communist party, respected older comrades are given their due. The flurry of activity was outside the family home of Hu Yaobang, the former leader of the Chinese -Communist party who died in 1989. Among the dutiful visitors were Xi Jinping, the man slated to be the next president of China, and Li Keqiang, the likely next premier.

Calling on the widow of a former leader might seem run-of-the-mill, but Hu Yaobang is far from a run-of-the-mill figure in Communist party history. During the 1980s, the party split over whether its economic reforms should be combined with political opening. After pushing a liberal line, Hu was dramatically ousted from office in 1987 by more conservative members of the leadership. It was news of his death in April 1989, by then a broken man, that sparked the Tiananmen Square protests. In official celebrations of the party’s history, his name is never mentioned. Along with Zhao Ziyang, the leader who succeeded him and who was then purged after Tiananmen, Hu was China’s Gorbachev.

The whole article is well worth reading. The actual operation of the Chinese political system and the views of the actors within it is something that most of us know far too little about.

Yglesias

The Mind of a Hack

Andrew Sabl reads The Weekly Standard’s coverage of ROTC’s return to college campuses where it had once been derogated on the grounds that it violated university non-discrimination policies:

But the Standard’s blog post buries the lede just a little bit. Nowhere does it mention the reason ROTC wasn’t allowed at Harvard up to now, and the reason that’s changed: don’t ask, don’t tell. That reason is hardly a secret. The phrase appears three times in the twelve-’graph Times story, and the fact that repeal of the policy led to repeal of the ban is the whole point of the story. But someone who read only the Standard’s version would get the idea that an effete Ivy League university, having dissed the military for no particular reason, has now climbed down. (A later post on how Columbia may invite ROTC back too also fails to mention DADT.) We apparently are supposed to see this as a triumph for conservatism.

See also Scott Lemieux.

Politics

REPORT: In 22 Statehouses Across The Country, Conservatives Move To Disenfranchise Voters

In statehouses across the country, Republican lawmakers are raising the specter of “voter fraud” to push through legislation that would dramatically restrict the voting rights of college students, rural voters, senior citizens, the disabled and the homeless. As part of their larger effort to silence Main Street, conservatives are pushing through new photo identification laws that would exclude millions from voting, depress Hispanic voter turnout by as much as 10 percent, and cost taxpayers millions of dollars. In the next few months, a new set of election laws could make going to the polls and registering to vote significantly more difficult — in some cases even barring groups of citizens from voting in the communities where they live.

Conservative legislators across the country have said these laws are necessary to combat alleged mass voter fraud. But these fears are completely overblown and states already have tough voting laws on the books: fraudulent voters face felony charges, hefty fines, and even lengthy prison time. In Missouri, for example, voter fraud carries a penalty of no less than 5 years in prison and a $250,000 fine. Yet conservatives have insisted on finding a legislative solution to a non-existent problem. In states like Indiana, where an ID law passed in 2005, both nuns and college students have found themselves turned away from the polls. Similar laws are on the books in eight other states and that number could expand dramatically in coming months. ThinkProgress examined these efforts in eight states:

NEW HAMPSHIRE: In the most egregious example of voter disenfranchisement legislation in the country, state Rep. Gregory Sorg (R) has introduced a bill that would bar thousands of college students and service members from voting in the communities where they live and attend school. According to New Hampshire House Speaker William O’Brien (R) the legislation is nececessary because there “are kids voting liberal, voting their feelings, with no life experience.” A diverse coalition of young veterans, libertarians, conservatives, and progressives have organized against the bill. Both state politicians and local law professors have said the law is unconstitutional, citing “Newberger v. Peterson — a 1972 federal district court decision that ruled the state cannot bar college students from voting in New Hampshire even if they intend to leave after graduation.” Sorg told a public hearing that he had not read the decision and did not “care” for it.

MINNESOTA: Republican representatives have introduced two separate bills in the statehouse that would require voters to present photo identification at the polls. The more expansive of the bills would end same-day voter registration and create a large electronic database which would scan voter’s IDs. Conservatives have said the bill is necessary to end alleged voter fraud in the state, claims that the Minnesota County Attorneys Association have called “frivolous.” Other groups, including the ACLU and Common Cause, have raised concerns about the bill’s constitutionality, feasibility, and cost. Gov. Mark Dayton (R) has indicated that he will not sign the legislation.

NORTH CAROLINA: Republican legislators have introduced a photo ID bill that the Institute for Southern Studies estimates will cost taxpayers more than $20 million. Once again, the legislation’s target is phantom “voter fraud” — even though in 2008 authorities reported only 40 voting irregularities out of 4.3 million votes cast. The real targets of the bill would be the state’s elderly, disabled and college-aged voters. One state senator has called the legislation a “slap in the face” to the more than 35 percent 35 percent of registered voters who live in isolated, rural counties.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Despite dying in the state senate last year, a bill requiring voters to present a photo ID has passed both legislative houses in contentious party-line votes. The two houses will now have to resolve their two different versions. One local NAACP official called the legislation “Jim Crow Jr.” and said the law was “during President Obama’s election, lots of blacks were out voting and doing absentee voting. (Republicans) don’t want the African-American vote to come out that strongly again.”

WISCONSIN: In the midst of Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) showdown with the Main Street Movement last week, Republicans rammed through a voter ID bill that critics have said shows “zero respect for Wisconsin voters.” Some analysts have said that the bill also shows little respect for the Constitution. Salon’s David Weigel wrote from Madison that “the legislation, as written, appeared to have constitutional problems that would shred it in court.”

TEXAS: Despite facing a $10-11 billion budget shortfall, Gov. Rick Perry prioritized a voter ID bill as an “emergency item” last month — forcing the Texas legislature to act on the bill before dealing with the state’s budget crisis. Since then the Senate has passed a voter ID law that would be the most restrictive in the nation and almost certainly depress turnout among low-income Texans. That shift could make all the difference in a state where in the past seven years, more than half a dozen state house races have been decided by less than fifty votes. The bill is now being considered by the Republican-controlled House and is widely expected to pass the lower chamber.

MISSOURI: In a party-line vote, state senators approved both a constitutional amendment and a bill requiring voter identification at the polls. Afterwards, one Democratic State Senator tweeted that the Senate had “just voted to disenfranchise at least 230,000 voters.” The measure is now headed to the Missouri House, where it has traditionally enjoyed strong support.

KANSAS: Monday the State Senate approved legislation, originally proposed by Secretary of State Kris Kobach, that would require proof of citizenship upon registering to vote and photo identification at the polls. Democratic state senators have strongly objected to the proof of citizenship requirement, arguing that it is both unconstitutional and will depress voter registration. The bill now awaits action in the senate.

COLORADO: The House has passed a bill requiring voters to present photo identification at the polls. Secretary of State Scott Gessler (R) has called the measure his top legislative priority.

TENNESSEE Two weeks a go, the State Senate passed a bill requiring voters to present a driver’s license before voting. The bill would create a significant burden to voting for the state’s more than 500,000 adults without a driver’s license. One Democratic state senator called the bill a “modern-day poll tax… for these poor people who have to travel to another county to pay a fee in order to have an ID that will let you vote.” The bill is widely expected to pass the Republican-controlled House.

IOWA A bi-partisan group of county election officials have risen in opposition to a proposed voter ID bill that passed the Republican-controlled House in late January. The group told reporters they had never encountered voter fraud duirng their service in the state. One Republican election chief even told the Des Moinse Register, “she worries the bill would discourage voting unless the state paid for a widespread public education campaign to ensure Iowans understood the new rules.” The bill now awaits action from the State Senate.

OTHER STATES The Montana House passed a voter ID bill last month and similar laws have been introduced in Connecticut, Maine, Alaska, Maryland, Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Illinois, Iowa, Montana and Nebraska. And in a number of states — including Colorado, Oregon, South Carolina and Tennessee — conservative lawmakers have introduced bills requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote.

Not only are many of these proposed laws too restrictive, they may also be unconstitutional. As the Brennan Center for Justice notes, legislators will have to fight an uphill battle to ensure their laws are held up in court and “in a difficult fiscal environment, citizens may reasonably question whether there are more pressing needs on which to spend their tax dollars than photo ID rules.” Yet conservatives have long shown little interest in the legality, fairness or cost of restricting voting. In 1940, President Franklin Roosevelt told union members that “there are some political candidates who think that they may have a chance of election, if only the total vote is small enough.” Seven decades later it seems that this strategy is once again in vogue for American conservatives.

Kevin Donohoe

Climate Progress

What The Frack: More Dangers Of Hydraulic Fracturing Emerge

By Tom Kenworthy, a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress.

In the past couple of years big energy has launched an aggressive defense of the drilling technique known as hydraulic fracturing, which employs a mixture of water, sand and chemicals pumped at high pressure deep underground to stimulate production of natural gas and oil. The practice is now used in about 90 percent of the roughly half million gas wells in the U.S.

According to the American Petroleum Institute, hydraulic fracturing, or fracking as it is often called, “is well regulated and safe, and it has a proven track record.”

Energy in Depth, which falsely bills itself as an association of small, independent oil and gas producers, calls fracking “a safe, well-regulated, environmentally sound practice that has been employed over one million times without a single incidence of drinking water contamination.”

But those assertions that fracking is a benign and well-regulated practice have done little to quell growing concerns that fracking with often undisclosed chemicals poses significant threats to surface and underground water supplies. As natural gas development has soared in areas rich in gas locked in underground shale deposits from Texas to New York State, pressure has mounted on the industry to disclose the chemicals that are used and on Congress to give the Environmental Protection Agency the authority to regulate the underground injections of fracking fluids. Congress in 2005 specifically exempted the practice from regulation under the Safe Drinking Water Act.

The drive to better understand the complex issues surrounding fracking has been driven in large part by thorough and aggressive investigative reporting, particularly by ProPublica, a non-profit center for investigative journalism. Public discussion has also accelerated with the Oscar nomination of the independent documentary “Gasland.”

In the past week, the New York Times has advanced the story in a significant way, with reports on how wastewater produced during gas drilling is often laced with dangerous levels of radioactive elements like radium, and released into surface waters and used to de-ice highways. The final story, published Thursday, is a devastating portrait of how political pressures, dating to the Reagan administration, have derailed effective regulation and control of drilling wastes:

More than a quarter century of efforts by some lawmakers and regulators to force the federal government to police the industry better have been thwarted, as E.P.A. studies have been repeatedly narrowed in scope, and important findings have been removed.

In its first report, the Times reported that “thousands of internal documents obtained…from the Environmental Protection Agency, state regulators and drillers show that the dangers to the environment and health are greater than previously understood”:

The documents reveal that the wastewater, which is sometimes hauled to sewage plants not designed to treat it and then discharged into rivers that supply drinking water, contains radioactivity at levels higher than previously known, and far higher than the level that federal regulators say is safe for these treatment plants to handle.

In its second story, the Times charges that recycling of the wastewater produced during drilling also entails risks to public health and the environment:

Some methods can leave behind salts or sludge highly concentrated with radioactive material and other contaminants that can be dangerous to people and aquatic life if they get into waterways. Some well operators are also selling their waste, rather than paying to dispose of it. Because it is so salty, they have found ready buyers in communities that spread it on roads for de-icing in the winter and for dust suppression in the summer. When ice melts or rain falls, the waste can run off roads and end up in the drinking supply.

Those reports come after a January investigation by the House Energy and Commerce Committee determined that oil and gas service companies have injected millions of gallons of diesel fuel into gas wells, apparently in violation of the Safe Drinking Water Act.

With Energy and Commerce now controlled by lawmakers friendly to the oil and gas industry, it’s not likely there will be any further full committee investigations. But Democratic lawmakers are pressing for more information from the Environmental Protection Agency and Interior Department.

Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-MA), the ranking minority member of the House Committee on Natural Resources, has written to EPA administrator Lisa Jackson pressing for her agency’s plans to better protect the public from the risks of contaminated drilling wastewater. Markey and another committee Democrat, Rep. Rush Holt (D-NJ) have asked Interior Secretary Ken Salazar for detailed information on the practice of hydraulic fracturing during drilling on federal lands. And three New York Democrats, Reps. Carolyn Maloney, Maurice Hinchey and Jerrold Nadler have requested congressional hearings into issues raised by the Times series.

The recent revelations ought to settle the argument over whether hydraulic fracturing needs to be subject to more effective and adequately funded and staffed oversight by both federal and state agencies. That will help ensure that industry is using the best available methods for protecting our air and water. Natural gas could help in the fight against climate change, but only if a well-regulated industry produces it responsibly and safely.

Culture

Tom Thibodeau

Hollinger:

Yes, Thibodeau’s stuff works. The top defensive assistant in Boston, he was the architect of the Celtics’ system that won a title in 2008 and has largely stymied opponents ever since. In fact, you can argue that Thibodeau owns the top two defenses in the game — the Bulls are first in defensive efficiency, and the Celtics are second.

Before coming to Boston, Thibodeau was Jeff Van Gundy’s defensive guru in Houston, where he posted similarly gaudy defensive stats despite some teams that appear to be rather modestly talented in that department.

I thought it was amazing that Thibodeau didn’t immediately get a head coaching offer after that first season in Boston. His success in Houston you could have attributed to this or that, but when he was able to immediately reproduce it in Boston it seemed clear that he was on to something. We know that NBA players are pretty consistent year-to-year in their box score production, so if you’re looking for coaches to improve something the defense, where the box score sheds the least light, is the place to look.

Yglesias

Does A Fall in Wealth Necessarily Entail a Recession?

To many, the answer is obvious. If home prices suddenly fall, then we’re all poorer, and we’re all spend less money, resulting in a recession. Empirically, this is in fact what tends to happen. But as this interesting comment from some anonymous economist explains, the actual reason why is considerably more complicated:

Though it’s difficult, let me try to explain why this is wrong. Roughly speaking, your spending in a year is a combination of (1) your income and (2) the change in your asset position. When the value of your assets suddenly declines, what are the first-order effects *going forward*? How does the sum of (1) and (2) change? There is no immediate effect on your labor income — surely as the economy finds a new equilibrium, there will be some changes in wages, but there is no clear movement here for most people (except those involved in industries related to the specific assets that declined). So (1) isn’t the important part.

As a matter of arithmetic, therefore, the change really has to be in (2). But changes in your asset position are inherently related to intertemporal substitution. Maybe you were counting on your asset stock to last you through retirement, and now you need to save more to achieve a certain net worth by age 65. But, of course, this decision depends on the interest rate. In a completely real economy, your savings will be channeled into investment (or dissaving by other households) because the real interest rate will adjust until the market clears. Maybe aggregate investment will go up and aggregate consumption will go down, but there isn’t some obvious first-order effect on GDP. Indeed, the classic “income” effect from a decline in asset prices would be an INCREASE in labor effort.

In an economy where the Fed targets the nominal interest rate, however, it’s not quite so simple, unless we’re in an environment where inflation immediately adjusts so that the real interest rate goes to its equilibrium value. (We clearly do not live in this world!)

By failing to cut nominal rates (and/or encourage inflation, by altering the expected future trajectory of the nominal rate) so that the real interest rate goes to its equilibrium value, the Fed effectively forces the economy to take some other path toward equilibrium. Generally this involves a massive decline in output.

The important thing to note here is that the rates that matter are the real (i.e., inflation adjusted) ones while the rates the Fed targets are nominal. Since nominal rates can’t go below zero, you need to change inflation expectations to avoid the output collapse. Similarly, letting inflation expectations collapse when nominal rates are already low will cause the real rates to become perilously high. All this is a reason to think central banks were flying too close to the sun with their pre-recession inflation targets below 2 percent. This leaves you dangerously exposed to very high real rates if there are any panics in asset markets.

The other thing is that if you imagine a future where we don’t have paper money, I think this problem goes away. In an all-electronic currency, you could have negative nominal rates so a central bank should never have a problem targeting whatever real interest rate it wants to target.

Politics

Conservative Conference Warns Of Hidden Islamic Danger In ‘Race To The Top’ Funding

A new memo that has been making the rounds in conservative circles is a dire warning about an onslaught of Islamic “Gulen schools,” a growing international network of charter schools begun in Turkey that offer “a blend of religious faith and largely Western curriculum.”

At the Educational Policy Conference, a large gathering of social conservatives in St. Louis in January, prominent neoconservative and anti-Muslim conspiracy theorist Frank Gaffney, and former Colorado State Board of Education member Peggy Littleton sounded the alarm on the “creeping threat” of Gulen schools hidden in President Obama’s landmark education initiative, the Race to the Top program, which encourages innovation in education, including charter schools. Littleton, who currently serves as an El Paso County Commissioner, told conference-goers that “the only reason [Obama is] pushing more charter schools” through Race to the Top is “because of these Gulen schools.”

ThinkProgress caught up with Littleton after her speech. She told us that the Obama administration “intentionally had already thought through how they could have a proliferation and a sneaking creep, if you will, of Gulen schools by embedding their acceptance and even promotion of charter schools under this new wonderful thing of Race to the Top.” She warned that these schools were teaching our children to “hate Americans.” Watch it:

Not to be outdone, Gaffney told the audience that, along with the federal government and CPAC, Gulen schools were “another example of this Muslim Brotherhood kind of operation, stealth jihad.” Completing Fox News host Glenn Beck’s “worldwide Muslim caliphate theory,” Gaffney also declared that Fethullah Gulen, the namesake of Gulen schools, “is a fellow who I think envisions himself being the next Caliph.” He finished by calling Gulen schools “an insidious, seditious program” and called on conference-goers to spread the word to friends and elected officials. Watch it:

Full transcript, after the jump
Read more

Yglesias

Americans Like Israel, Don’t Care About Palestinians

Much how the teachers unions’ secret weapon is that teachers are really popular, I think advocates of a fairer policy toward Israel and Palestine don’t always do a great job of confronting the fact that the AIPAC is so effective primarily because Americans don’t care about Palestinians:

Note that this is a real change. Israel has always had more sympathizers than the Palestinians, but pre-9/11 a kind of neutralism was the predominant view. Under those circumstances, lobbying for one-sided policies was pretty challenging. But Israel’s commanding position in public opinion over the past decade makes it basically child’s play.

Yglesias

Florida Residents Saved From the Scourge of Non-Expert Furniture Selection

Once again the perils of unbridled capitalism have been averted with occupational licensing:

The International Interior Design Association (IIDA) announced “victory for interior design” this week after a regulation found an interior design license requirement to be constitutional. Those challenging the law were unable to prove that the license requirement lacked a rational basis.

As a matter of legal doctrine, this may well be right. The alleged rational basis is that the rule will “protect public safety by ensuring that interior designers are trained to comply with fire and building codes.” As a public policy matter, however, it is difficult for me to believe that residents of states without licensing regimes for interior designers are suffering from a major fire-related crisis. After all, the vast majority of interior designing in any state is done by completely untrained amateurs picking out their own stuff.

At any rate, I think the proliferation of this stuff is not only important but is increasing in importance all the time. Robots will be able to make all our manufactured goods long before they’re able to execute tasteful interior design, so people need to be able to get employment opportunities in this kind of field.

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