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The Stern Interview Part Two: We Need A New Industrial Revolution

The second in a three-part interview with economist Nicholas Stern on climate policy. Read the first part, in which he argued that failure to address global warming could eventually lead to World War Three.

Nicholas Stern, one of the world’s most prominent climate economists, believes that the fight against global warming will lead to the next industrial revolution.

In the second part of an exclusive interview with ThinkProgress, Stern describes the scale of the challenge to wean civilization off its dependence of unsustainable fossil fuels. Since the consequences of failure are on the almost unimaginable scale of global war, this challenge is a necessary one. Stern is actually inspired by the scope of action, recognizing that the investment to transform the global economy to be cleaner, safer, and healthier will unleash a new industrial revolution:

We essentially, if we’re to give us say any reasonable chance, call it fifty-fifty, for two degrees centigrade as the limit on the temperature increase — of course, it’s only a probability. Nothing is certain in risk management. If we were to try to do that — it’s a bit ambitious from where we are. If we were to try to do that, and I think we should, we would see emissions having to fall from close to fifty billion tons of CO2 equivalent down to below twenty over forty years, between now and 2050. If we manage ourselves sensibly as a world including our climate, of course, in other ways too, you might see world income grow by a factor of three over forty years. So you’ve got to divide emissions per unit of output by three times 2.5: by a factor of seven or eight. Divide by seven or eight.

That, by anybody’s standards, is an industrial revolution.

So, action is to promote an industrial revolution.

So that’s what we’ve got to look at to see what that means. We probably would have to invest as a world one or two percent more for some decades, maybe two, three decades. We’ll find out how many as we work our way through. You’ll probably have to invest one or two percent of GDP extra, which is quite a significant story. But a pretty minor investment to make for the kind of massive risk reduction I’ve just described.

Watch it:

Although there is growing recognition that “leadership in the new clean energy economy” is “a contest that America cannot afford to lose,” too many politicians in Washington are committed to the defense of the oil and coal industries against any change. The belief that the fight against carbon pollution is a threat to the economy is still pervasive, when the very opposite is the reality.

Climate Progress

Japan Syndrome: Tokyo Electric nuclear plant in peril after earthquake and tsunami cripple cooling system

UPDATE2: Explosion rocks plant, officials assume partial meltdown

UPDATE:  Japanese officials, “are working under the presumption” that there have been partial meltdowns at two reactors, said Yukio Edano, the Chief Cabinet Secretary.

An explosion rocked one of Japan’s nuclear power plants, causing a portion of a building to crumble, sending white smoke billowing into the air and prompting Japanese officials to warn those in the vicinity to cover their mouths and stay indoors.

In what may become the most serious nuclear power crisis since the Chernobyl disaster, the explosion followed large tremors at the Fukushima Daiichi No. 1 reactor Saturday afternoon, injuring four workers who were struggling to get the quake-stricken unit under control.

Earlier, Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency had warned that the reactor, whose cooling system had been crippled by the giant earthquake on Friday, could be nearing a meltdown and that two radioactive substances, cesium and radioactive iodine, had already been detected nearby.

The full extent of the blast remained unclear, but footage on Japanese television showed that the walls of the building housing the reactor crumpled, leaving a skeletal metal frame, according to the Associated Press.

UPDATE:  That’s the WashPost at 8:04 AM EST Saturday.   It doesn’t appear the siting and fail-safe design of this plant was sufficiently thought out, given that Japan is situated along the Ring of Fire, “where large numbers of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions occur.”

Here’s ABC News, which notes in its sub-hed “Nuclear Scientists Warn of ‘Very Serious’ Radioactive Event if Japanese Reactor Not Cooled”:

Read more

LGBT

Opponents Of Maryland Marriage Bill: Homosexuality Is A ‘Learned’ Behavior

Supporters of Senate Bill 116, the Civil Marriage Protection Act — Maryland’s same sex marriage bill — have sent the legislation back to the House Judiciary Committee, after holding a three hour debate on the issue this afternoon. “At this time, I’m going to move to have this bill recommitted to the House Judiciary Committee,” Chairman Joseph F. Vallario (D) announced at approximately 2pm, suggesting that the bill had not attracted the necessary 71 votes for passage.

Supporters of the bill framed marriage as a civil rights struggle that would extend equal rights to all Maryland residents, while opponents sought to downgrade the measure to a civil unions bill or put the question up to a popular vote. Below is a compilation of some of the most ridiculous arguments put forward by opponents of marriage equality:

- DEL. RON GEORGE: Homosexuality is a learned behavior:

However, there is much in science supporting the nurture school of thought that this bill seeks to throw away…despite several claims, there has still not been discovered a gay gene, yet the nature school of thought is legitimate. My argument is that the nurture school of though is also legitimate…This is not claiming that gay people made a conscience choice. The nurture argument makes no such claim. Certainly in the study of sexual disorders, much is found to be a learned behavior, from the predator to rapist, to the many with a pornography addictions to even the standard monogamous relationships, more and more is being discovered. [...] Therefore, I believe this bill goes too far because the nurturing of our young to trust male and female brains and how they compliment each other in the raising of our young is a valid point and must not be erased. This bill goes too far for this reason.

- DEL. STEVEN SCHUH: Gay relationships “don’t benefit society broadly” and “don’t warrant subsidization.”

Those relationships may benefit the people involved in them but they don’t benefit society broadly and therefore, in my view, they don’t warrant subsidization by the state. In my view, same-sex couples should not be give the right to marry under Maryland law because same-sex relationships are wholly private matters that are none of the state’s business and do not warrant state subsidies.

- DEL. JAY WALKER: Gays and lesbians already have enough rights.

I cannot fathom a day when I will be told which water fountain I can use, but at the same time, the gay and lesbian community has so many more things that they can participate in that African Americans and immigrants couldn’t. I’m always going to be a black man as long as I live. Women have the right to vote. The gay and lesbian community has the right to vote, they’ve always had that. So realizing what I’ve said there…..but my foundation, my beliefs, the people who have always backed me…have asked for us not to vote for this bill and I’m going to respect their wish.

In a press release following the session, Equality Maryland described the decision to send the bill back to committee as “a strategic step that will allow us to fight and win in the future.” “Equality Maryland is more committed than ever to this fight. We will redouble our efforts to ensure that our voices are heard. We know our cause is just,” the group said. Gov. Martin O’Malley, who has promised to sign the measure, also committed to seeing it pass. “As One Maryland we must work together to respect the dignity of every individual. I remain committed to working with all Marylanders to ensure that rights are protected for equally for everyone,” he said in a statement.

Politics

Caught On Live Mic: Iowa GOPer Refers To GOP Gun Law As ‘The Crazy, Give-A-Handgun-To-A-Schizophrenic Bill’

The Republican-led Iowa state House is considering a bill that would allow Iowans to carry a weapon openly or concealed in public without a license, permission from a sheriff, background check, or any training. The bill is known as “Alaska carry,” or the “Alaska bill,” because Alaska was one of the first states in the country to implement it. Arizona and Wyoming have similar laws.

In a “snafu” on the House floor yesterday, House Speaker Pro Tem Jeff Kaugmann (R) was caught privately acknowledging the danger of the bill while speaking near a microphone he thought was off, but was in fact turned on:

REP. STEVE LUKAN (R): The Alaska bill – what’s the Alaska bill? [...]

KAUFMAN: The crazy, give-a-handgun-to-a-schizophrenic bill.

AIDE OFF CAMERA: His microphone is on.

[Microphone goes dead]

Watch it:

“Rep. Kaufmann’s characterization of this bill and the entire conversation proves that even Republicans know HSB 219 is a dangerous piece of legislation that jeopardizes public safety,” said Iowa Democratic Party Chairwoman Sue Dvorsky.

Of course, Kaufman is right — this bill is “crazy.” Just one day before Kaufman’s run-in with the live mic, 15 law enforcement officials warned the legislature of the dangers of this proposed law. Linn County Sheriff Brian Gardner specifically warned that without a permiting system, “sheriffs could no longer screen people with mental health or substance abuse issues or other disqualifies.” Washington County Sheriff Jerry Dunbar said that in recent days alone, he had had four people in his office seeking permits who were prohibited from carrying firearms under federal law.

In the wake of the tragic shooting in Arizona — a state which already has the law Iowa is considering — Iowa Republicans should be acutely aware of the danger Kaufman joked about.

Update

Alaska Republican congressman Don Young has signed an insurrectionist pledge written by Alaska militia organizer Schaeffer Cox that advocated for opposing our government in response to gun control laws. Watch this video:

Yglesias

Endgame

Used to believe in a lot more:

— I’m with my former professor Warren Goldfarb on Team Kuhn against Errol Morris’ smears.

— I strongly recommend Kuhn’s The Copernican Revolution as a more accessible intro than the more famous Structure of Scientific Revolutions.

“75 years of economic research have apparently had no impact on perceptions, either among the public or among the political elite.”

— John Winhtrop, un-American socialist.

— What are cities good for.

Rilo Kiley, “Science vs Romance” sheds disappointingly little light on the Thomas Kuhn’s philosophy of science.

Yglesias

The Road To Carbon Tax

I mentioned this the other day, but when I read things like this I think that climate hawks need to reorganize a bit and re-engage with the case for taxing greenhouse gas emissions:

Sessions, 64, also said he’s willing to consider tax increases, along with cuts in entitlement program costs, as part of an effort to craft a longer-term, bipartisan plan to tame the U.S. debt and deficit.

Tax increases will “be a bitter pill for me, but we have got to get this country on the right path,” said Sessions, who became the ranking Republican on the budget panel in January.

Still, Sessions said he would question whether any tax increase were needed. “I’d have to challenge it, but I would look at it,” the senator said.

Basically, the country needs higher taxes. But Democrats don’t want to raise taxes unless they get Republican cover. But if Republicans ever vote for a tax hike, it’ll have to be a regressive one. So if there’s going to be a regressive tax hike, it should include some sweetener to make it appealing to some segments of the progressive coalition. To me that says—carbon tax.

Is that a likely scenario? No, of course not. But no scenario that involves Republicans agreeing to a tax hike seems likely to me. And yet Washington is obsessed with the idea of a bipartisan budget deal that involves Republicans agreeing to a tax hike. A carbon tax seems to me to be the most plausible way to put one together, and a bipartisan budget deal seems to me to be the most plausible way to get carbon pricing done.

Security

Police Officer Found Guilty Of Raping Undocumented Immigrant At Gunpoint Under Threat Of Deportation

A former Georgia deputy from Cobb County, Jason Bill, was found guilty today on a total of seven counts, including, kidnapping, two counts of aggravated assault, aggravated sodomy, rape and false imprisonment of a 23-year-old undocumented woman. According to reports, Bill accused the undocumented immigrant from El Salvador of stealing his phone. He threatened to deport her and then “used the power of his badge to force her to his nearby apartment.” Then he forced her to “commit sexual acts” at gun point. He will be sentenced tomorrow and faces a minimum of 25 years in jail. To add insult to injury, Bill’s attorneys alleged that the victim was actually a prostitute.

This isn’t the first time a Cobb County police officer has been accused of exploiting an undocumented immigrant. In 2009, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)of Georgia released a report documenting the stories of 10 people who claimed they were victims of racial profiling by Cobb County law enforcement.

In 2010, a 23-year-old Latino man filed a lawsuit against the Cobb County Police Department claiming that two officers “stopped him without cause, beat him and then jailed him on a pretext in an effort to get him deported.” According to the police report, officers stopped Angel Francisco Castro Torres (who was riding a bike) after observing his race. They then allegedly demanded Castro’s papers before proceeding to beat him. Castro required surgery to repair his broken nose and eye socket.

The ACLU attributed the civil rights violations to the federal government’s 287(g) program which involves an agreement between local law enforcement agencies and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) that allows police to enforce immigration laws. “In Cobb, members of the immigrant community live their daily lives in terror as Cobb law enforcement and jail personnel abuse the power afforded to them by their contract with ICE,” wrote the ACLU. The ACLU further noted that, “This problem is compounded in Georgia, as there is currently no state legislation banning racial profiling and mandating accountability and transparency for law enforcement.”  

Of course, not every police officer who is charged with enforcing immigration law is going to go out of his or her way to target brown-skinned immigrants. Nor is every case of racial profiling going to turn into the horrific crime that Bill committed. However, as Georgia continues to move forward on a slew of bills that would expand law enforcement’s authority to enforce immigration laws, the likelihood that the state will confront more of these cases could go up.

Politics

New Three-Week GOP Funding Resolution Would Slash Funds For Tsunami Monitoring And Disaster Response

As ThinkProgress noted this morning, House Republicans’ budget would make massive cuts the country’s ability to monitor and respond to disasters like the tsunami that struck Japan last night. That proposal was stopped in the Senate this week. But today, in an unfortunate bit of bad timing, House Appropriations Committee Chair Hal Rogers (R-KY) introduced a new continuing resolution to fund the government for the next three weeks, while implementing more than $6 billion in budget cuts — including more than $100 million from the agency responsible for handling tsunamis. Beyond slashing funds to NOAA, the GOP plan would strip money from the agency that monitors earthquakes, along with other critical programs:

– NOAA: The agency with primary responsibility for warning Americans about natural disasters like tsunamis and hurricanes would lose more than $117 million in funding, including $99 million in cuts to its Operations, Research, and Facilities activites.

– U.S. Geological Survey: The agency that monitors earthquakes and other seismic activities will see more than $7 million cut from its Surveys, Investigations, and Research budget.

– Community Policing Services: The resolution would slash more than $194 million in local law enforcement funding, cutting $25 million from a campaign to crack down on methamphetamine abuse. $2 million would be cut from the Office of Nation Drug Control Policy federal drug control programs and $91 million from juvenile justice programs.

– Environmental Protection Agency: The EPA, a frequent target of the new GOP Congress, would see $217 million cut from its budget. Other agencies engaged in environmental protection and land conservation would lose more than $173 million from their budgets.

– National Forest Service: More than $50 million would be cut from the NFS, including $6 million to fight forest fires.

– Small Business: More than $64 million would be cut from agencies and programs that promote small businesses and community development.

In the midst of a fragile economic recovery and the beginning of hurricane and tornado season, House Republicans have shown their willingness to restrict the government’s ability to respond to natural disasters, aid small businesses, and protect America’s environment and streets.

Kevin Donohue

Yglesias

Cutting Spending Involves Reductions In Levels of Service, Including Newsworthy Services

I’ve been in a kind of day-long twitter spat with the right-wing over the fact that the House Republican spending plan would involve cuts in tsunami warning programs.

So to pull out of the weeds for a moment on the blog, the point I want to make is this. If you insist on large cuts in “spending” what happens is that you need large cuts in what the government spends money on. That’s primarily the military, Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid. If you insist instead, as the House Republicans, on large cuts in non-security discretionary spending what happens is you get large cuts in all non-security discretionary spending programs. Cuts in schools. Cuts in tsunami monitoring. Cuts in hurricane tracking. Cuts in national parks. Cuts in financial regulatory enforcement. Cuts, cuts, cuts. That’s what it means to “cut.” If you want the government to spend much less money, it needs to do less stuff. If you want the government to spend much less money while avoiding cuts in the government’s most expensive programs, it needs to really scale back on all the other stuff. That’s what cutting spending is. The belief that spending should be substantially reduced requires the belief that the government should do substantially less stuff.

Update

Related: Dave Weigel on why the day of a tsunami is a good time to talk about the NOAA budget.

Climate Progress

Navy: Global Warming Is Real And Poses Threat To National Security

Yesterday, while the House Republican controlled Energy and Power Subcommittee passed the Upton-Inhofe bill to kill greenhouse pollution rules, a commissioned report by the Navy concluded that climate change will present national security and economic challenges:

U.S. allies and their militaries will face national security challenges similar to those faced by the United States and its naval forces as a result of climate change. [...] Among the many manifestations of climate change projected for the next several decades, sea-level rise is both highly certain to occur and highly certain to come with economic costs. [...] As a result of reduced multiyear ice, the Arctic Ocean is rapidly acquiring the types of maritime activities in the summer months that normally occur elsewhere in the world’s ice-free oceans.

The Department of Defense has also found that global warming poses a threat to national security, and concluded that climate-induced crises could destabilize entire regions and increase the power of terrorist organizations.

The military, as opposed to the climate denying Republicans, have realized that respected scientific bodies across the world have unequivocally concluded that global warming is occuring. Navy Rear Admiral David Tilley, a meteorologist and Navy oceanographer, has said that global warming is real, “an issue that affects our national security,” and the “greatest challenge of the 21st century.”

-Paul Breer

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