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Bombshell 1: Climate science deniers claim to have full access to Berkeley temperature study work-product — and are now working with the Berkeley team!

Bombshell 2: BEST’s Project Chair Richard Muller confirms ClimateProgress reporting, contradicts WattsUpWithThat

The key conclusions from Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project have been made public by its project chair, Richard Muller.  In a talk Saturday (near the end), Muller explained that BEST has been analyzing large quantities of data, they have started writing a draft report, and what he can say now is:

  • “We are seeing substantial global warming”
  • “None of the effects raised by the [skeptics] is going to have anything more than a marginal effect on the amount of global warming.”

None of that should be a surprise (except to a few deniers).  If you listen to the entire video (which I don’t recommend without multiple head vises), it’s clear the Muller himself is a volcano of long-debunked denier talking points and misinformation (which I’ll re-debunk later).  So when Muller says the data show “substantial global warming” and the effects raised by the skeptics are “marginal,” you know he’s not overstating things.

Now I hadn’t watched that video when climatologist Ken Caldeira emailed me essentially the same exact set of conclusions, which he asked me to post (see Exclusive: Berkeley temperature study results “confirm the reality of global warming and support in all essential respects the historical temperature analyses of the NOAA, NASA, and HadCRU”).

Again, I thought the conclusions were obvious, but I published his email in part because I wanted to smoke out the deniers.  A number of climate scientists had told me they believed the deniers were working feverishly to change and/or spin the main results.  What I didn’t know — what few people knew — was that the hard-core deniers in fact had unprecedented access to the BEST work-product.  That gives the lie to BEST somehow being a transparent effort to work the data independently and restore “credibility” to the global temperature record, something the record didn’t actually need.

My post was far more successful than I ever imagined.  The deniers — Steven Mosher and Anthony Watts — went ballistic, since they obviously thought they were going to be able to control how the final product was shaped and spun.  As we’ll see, they publicly admitted some astonishing things that truly call into question the objectivity and transparency of BEST WORST [Worst "Objective" Reanalysis of Surface Temperatures].

For instance, although Watts claims to have intimate knowledge of BEST’s work product and claims he’ll abide by their results, his latest blog post is utterly at odds with them.  Also, it seems like the deniers got BEST to post a response to Caldeira on their website saying “The Berkeley Earth team feels very strongly that no conclusions can yet be drawn from this preliminary analysis” — without even realizing that Muller had already drawn the exact same conclusions and publicly announced them!  But I’m getting ahead of myself now.

UPDATE:  The eye-opening transparency blurts from the deniers continue.  As a commenter points out, Mosher now states that he is actively working with BEST.  Guess they’ll have to change the FAQ again!

Read more

Politics

Judge Rules Chris Christie’s Education Cuts Violated State Constitution

New Jersey has one of the most progressive education laws in the country — the Abbott v. Burke case produced several rulings requiring the state to equalize public education funding for all students, meaning that poor, urban districts must receive the same relative amount of funding as wealthy suburban districts. Abbott vs. Burke requirements have been characterized as “one of the most remarkable and successful efforts by any court in the nation to cut an educational break for kids from poor families and generally minority-dominated urban neighborhoods.”

Today, a judge found that Gov. Chris Christie (R) violated Abbott v. Burke requirements when he slashed $820 million in state aid to schools last year, because the cuts were slanted too heavily towards poor districts:

Judge Peter Doyne, who was appointed as special master in the long-running Abbott vs. Burke school funding case, today issued an opinion that also found the reductions “fell more heavily upon our high risk districts and the children educated within those districts.”

“Despite spending levels that meet or exceed virtually every state in the country, and that saw a significant increase in spending levels from 2000 to 2008, our ‘at risk’ children are now moving further from proficiency,” he said.

“The difficulty in addressing New Jersey’s fiscal crisis and its constitutionally mandated obligation to educate our children requires an exquisite balance not easily attained,” Doyne wrote. “Something need be done to equitably address these competing imperatives. That answer, though, is beyond the purview of this report. For the limited question posed to the Master, it is clear the State has failed to carry its burden.

As the article notes, Judge Doyne was appointed as a “special master” in this case, and so his finding today will go back to the state Supreme Court, which can choose to act on it. This seems likely to happen. “A special master’s report like this carries great weight with the higher court,” said David Sciarra, the executive director of the Education Law Center. “The evidence was exhaustive, detailed thorough and its conclusions are sobering about the impact of the funding cuts on students across the state, particularly poor students, regardless of where they live.”

Christie has not yet responded to the finding. If he is required by the state Supreme Court to find more funding to at-risk districts, perhaps the governor could reconsider some of his proposed tax cuts for corporations and millionaires.

Update

A Christie spokesman responded to the ruling this evening, blaming the court for exacerbating New Jersey’s fiscal troubles, and sidestepping the central issue of unequally distributed cuts: “The court’s legal mandates on the legislative and executive branches of government have incontrovertibly contributed to our current fiscal crisis without uniformly improving education, particularly for the at-risk students the court claims to be helping with its rulings.”

Health

Why IHOP Owner’s Fears About ObamaCare’s Impact On Jobs And Economy Are Overblown

The Heritage Foundation is promoting the GOP argument that health care reform is a “job killer” by offering this profile of an IHOP franchise that will have to spend thousands of dollars to offer health insurance coverage to its employees:

Under the year-old law, Womack must provide health insurance to all full-time employees beginning in 2014. Right now, he employs nearly 1,000 full- and part-time workers and already offers insurance to his management staff. He simply does not know how he’ll generate the revenue to do more.

Womack estimates the cost of the law to his company will be 50 percent greater than his company’s earnings — in other words, beyond his ability to pay.

That’s not because his company of 12 IHOP restaurants in Indiana and Ohio is unprofitable. Quite the opposite, in fact. By industry standards, he’s doing well. But labor-intensive restaurants generate profits of just 5 percent to 7 percent per employee.

Watch it:

Now, it’s certainly true that some businesses will have to spend more on health care coverage under the new law, but here, Heritage really did its homework in finding the exact kind of business that will be most affected by reform. Step back a moment and realize that the premise is wrong at the outset: businesses are not required to provide coverage under the law, as the Heritage piece claims. Rather, businesses with more than 50 employees (like this chain of IHOP stores) that do not offer insurance would be required to pay a penalty of $2,000 per full time employee (minus the first 30 employees) if any employee receives subsidized coverage through the exchange.

As the Urban Institute’s John Holahan and Bowen Garrett explain, on the aggregate, the impact on businesses is minimal:

Smaller businesses: Premium contributions for firms with fewer than 100 employees would fall by 8.2 percent “because such firms have the option of purchasing coverage in the new Small Business Health Options Program (SHOP) exchanges, where administrative costs will be lower than in current markets, and premiums will fall as a result.” Firms under 50 employees are exempt from any employer requirement and will also have access to tax credits to help offset the cost of coverage. Firms with more than 80 workers “would pay $2.0 billion in assessments if their full-time employees receive subsidized coverage through the exchange. On balance, taking premiums and assessments into account, small businesses would save 8.7 percent compared with their current premium contributions” and would have more dollars to grow their businesses.

Firms between 100 and 1,000 workers: Medium-sized firms that don’t offer coverage (more than 95% already do) would pay, in aggregate, “$11.8 billion in assessments due to full-time employees obtaining subsidized coverage through the exchange.” However the total amount in assessments “is very small in comparison to wages and salaries in the United States (0.2 percent of the $6.4 trillion wage base) so any negative impact on jobs must also be small.”

The law assumes that employers have a responsibility to fund health care reform and increase access to coverage, to be sure, but Heritage purposely cherry picked this IHOP businesses and then exaggerated the affects of the law. For instance, Womack estimates that he would have to spend $7,000 to $10,000 per employee, when in reality the penalty for not offering coverage is $2,000 per every full time worker minus the first 35 (the video and blog post suggest that he would have to spend $7,000 for all 1,000 employees).

The effects of the law on Womack’s business may be difficult to calculate, but these exaggerations only serve to complicate that picture, suggesting that the law would pull the rug from under small businesses without detailing any of the benefits of reform. Towards the end of the video, Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN) suggests that “the real answer” for businesses who can’t afford health insurance today “is to simply lower the cost of health insurance,” which ACA is projected to do. According to the CBO, reform will reduce average premiums for employers with more than 50 employees by up to 3% and successful delivery system reforms like bundling payments, accountable care organizations, medical homes and care coordination could further lower the growth of health care spending. All this would result in more jobs and higher family incomes — allowing Womack to invest more dollars into his restaurants and expand operations.

Yglesias

Endgame

Plastic forks and paper cups:

— Should the US intervene in the Somali civil war to protect civilian life?

— Or should the US intervene in the Cote D’Ivoir civil war to protect civilian life?

— If this article is write, supplying clean water to the population of Congo would cost about 100 Tomahawk missiles.

— Libya and the bounds of the possible.

— GOOD is hiring a ton of people and wants you to know that it’s a “dog-friendly work environment” which sounds gross to me.

— Light rail in Jerusalem.

— Wrestling and civil rights.

Matt & Kim, “Red Paint”.

Security

AZ Substitute Teacher Worries About A ‘Latino Invasion’

Last week, Arizona state Senator Lori Klein (R) read a letter on immigration on the state Senate floor as the legislature considered a bill that would have required public schools to verify immigration status. The letter was written by a substitute teacher who complained about an “invasion” of Latino students in his class who didn’t want to say the pledge of allegiance and would rather join gangs than go to school:

I have found that substitute teaching in these areas most of the Hispanic students do not want to be educated but rather be gang members and gangsters. They hate America and are determined to reclaim this area for Mexico. If we are able to remove the illegals out of our schools, the class sizes would be reduced and the students who wanted to learn would have a better chance to do so and become productive citizens.

I applaud and support your efforts to stop this invasion into our state and country. When the citizens of a country are forced to speak the invaders language, adopt their customs, and forced to support them, are we not a conquer nation? I do not want to see our state and nation turned into a third world country. Thank you for standing up to this invasion.

Watch ABC15′s news coverage:

Initially, the name of the letter’s author was not released. However, when people started to question whether the letter was doctored, the man’s name was released. Tony Hill claims that “an unusually disheartening day” at Glendale middle-school motivated him to write a letter to state Senate President Russell Pearce (R). He reportedly stands by his statements but regrets sending the letter because of the media attention it has attracted.

However, Hill’s colleagues don’t agree. David Hume, spokesman for the Pendergast Elementary School District, told a local news station that the observations in Hill’s letter “do not represent any typical educational environment in Pendergast schools. The remarks do not warrant any legitimate response.” Danielle Airey of Peoria Unified School District similarly stated, “The type of behavior described in this letter is not typical of our 8th grade classrooms. What you would expect to find as typical in our schools are classrooms where teachers are focused on instruction and students are engaged in learning. We would expect any of our teachers, including substitute teachers, to handle inappropriate behavior through our discipline process or by bringing it to the attention of the principal.”

Whether the behavior described in the letter is “typical” or not, there is certainly reason to question whether it’s true at all. “Some people can’t handle the truth,” proclaimed Pearce as he was defending the letter. An editorial in the Arizona Republic replies, “More to the point: Some people can’t take time to find out the truth before passing along unfounded accusations.”

Meanwhile, actual statistics paint a different picture of young Latinos. Although “a persistent educational attainment gap remains between Hispanics and non-Hispanic whites,” nine in 10 Latinos say it’s “necessary” to get a college education to get ahead in life — more than any other ethnic group. However, language barriers, parental involvement, and a sense of responsibility to helping support their families has created a “divide between aspirations and reality.”

Ultimately, a testimony by a teacher who worries about a Latino invasion says a lot more about the biases of the instructor himself than it says about any of his students.

Politics

Huckabee Supports Bringing Back DADT: ‘Soldiers In The Foxholes Make The Decisions’

Earlier this year, likely GOP presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty said he would support reinstating the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy and cutting funding off to implement the repeal. Now, his potential rival Mike Huckabee is following suit. Speaking to the American Family Association’s OneNewsNow, Huckabee said that he too would support re-imposing the ban against open service by gays and lesbians:

“I would — because that’s really what the military wants,” says Huckabee. “There’s been some talk that the military is fine with having same-sex orientation people. But if you really surveyed the combat troops, that is not at all the case.”

According to Huckabee, currently a political analyst for Fox News, politicians should back out of the picture. “…I don’t think that these are decisions that politicians should make. These are decisions that soldiers should make,” he says emphatically. “And when the soldiers in the foxholes make the decisions, they choose something different — and we should listen to them.”

A majority of servicemembers who participated in the Pentagon’s survey — upwards of 70% — didn’t believe that gay troops would undermine unit morale or cohesion. The study’s co-chairs argued that combat units expressed a more negative view about open service (40–60% in the Marine Corps and in various combat arms specialties) because of inexperience with gay servicemembers.

“One of the factors that causes a difference in the Army and the Marine Corps combat arms responses when compared to the overall responses is that we find in those two communities, Army and Marine Corps combat arms, — and this is probably unsurprising — that those communities have lower rates of actual experience of having served alongside a gay or lesbian servicemember,” the study co-chair Army Gen. Carter F. Ham explained last year. “We did find in the survey that there is a difference between servicemembers who have and those who have not served with gay and lesbian servicemembers. And I think this may be one of the significant contributors to the differences between combat arms responses and the force overall,” he added.

Ham also rebuffed Huckabee’s suggestion that combat troops should decide the policy outcome. “I can’t think of a good outcome that comes out of that,” he said, adding, “We don’t poll the force about potential military operations. We didn’t poll the army that says, you know, do you agree with 12 or 15 month-long combat tours.”

Finally, it’s unclear how reinstating the policy would work operationally. Reimposing DADT would require gay servicemembers who come out after repeal is certified to suddenly go back into the closet or face discharge. Straight soldiers would also have to pretend they did not know about the sexual orientation of formerly-out gay members. (HT: JoeMyGod)

Yglesias

Conservatives Must Lead on the Deficit

On the radio today with David Gergen and Reihan Salam, I took the view that it makes no sense to criticize the president for lack of leadership on the long-term fiscal crunch. Whatever you think of its merits, White House has laid out a budget proposal. Congressional Republicans say that it makes taxes too high and the deficit too large, but they’ve yet to produce a lower-tax/lower-deficit alternative for us to compare it to. Until they do, I don’t really see what there is to talk about.

What’s more, I made the point that the main sticking point is that Republicans simply refuse to acknowledge that revenue as a share of GDP needs to go higher than it was at the end of the Bush years. The White House concedes in principle at least that Social Security and Medicare spending need to go lower than they’re currently projected to. What needs to happen next is for the GOP to concede in principle that revenue needs to go higher. Reihan said Republicans would certainly oppose any increase in tax rates but might agree to close some tax loopholes. That’s an interesting idea, but it seems to be off the table:

Republican leaders in the Senate and House will not agree to tax increases in the guise of reform measures, according to a prominent conservative advocate for lower taxes. Conservatives have grown increasingly worried that Republicans in Congress may accept a tax hike as part of a broader deal to reduce discretionary and entitlement spending. But Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) have pledged to Americans for Tax Reform (ATR) president Grover Norquist they will not support any deficit reduction package that increases taxes.

Under these circumstances, there’s nothing to negotiate about and nothing presidential leadership can achieve. If Republican leaders don’t want to agree to any revenue increases, that’s their prerogative, but willingness to compromise on revenue is the sine qua non of a bipartisan deal. Absent that willingness, there neither can nor will be a bipartisan deal so there’s nothing for the president to say or do.

The real question then becomes: When will the Republicans produce a budget proposal? We’ve seen the White House proposal. Do Republicans have an alternative proposal that makes the deficit lower consistent with their position on taxes? If they do, I’d like to see them write it down on paper so we can talk about it.

Economy

REPORT: Three States Propose Massive Tax Cuts For Millionaires, Tax Hikes for Middle Class

Last week, ThinkProgress documented conservative efforts in twelve states to shift the tax burden onto the middle class even while cutting taxes for corporations and the wealthy. In three states, conservatives are going even further, proposing massive estate tax cuts for millionaires even as income inequality is at its worse since the 1920s. Here are the details:

MAINE: Tea Party Gov. Paul LePage’s (I) tax reform package would raise the state’s estate tax exemption from $1 million to $2 million — allowing four hundred of the state’s wealthiest estates to escape taxation. At the same time, the tax plan would raise property taxes on middle class Mainers while freezing healthcare funding for working parents, cutting money for schools, and raising the retirement age for public workers. Republican legislators want to go even further, and are currently considering eliminating the estate tax altogether.

OHIO: In January, House Speaker William Batchelder (R) called Gov. John Kasich’s (R) proposal to completely eliminate the estate tax one of the Republican-controlled legislature’s “top priorities.” But already the bill has garnered strong opposition from local governments, who depend on estate tax revenue and are already concerned state spending cuts. Even while finding room for estate tax reductions, Kasich’s proposed budget cuts 25 percent of funding for local schools, $427 million for nursing homes, $1 million for food banks, $12 million from children’s hospitals, and $15.9 million from an adoption program for children with special needs.

NEW JERSEY: In his 2011 budget proposal, Gov. Chris Christie called for raising the state’s estate tax exemption from $675,000 to $1 million even while proposing cuts to the state’s Earned Income Tax Credit and homestead rebates for working poor families. And last year Christie vetoed a bill passed by the Legislature that would have raised taxes on the state’s millionaires to help fund property tax relief for Main Street.

Last December, the federal government set the precedent for estate tax cuts when the bi-partisan tax deal signed by President Obama cut the estate tax rate to its second lowest level since 1931.

Kevin Donohoe

Yglesias

Where Does Katie Roiphe Live?

Katie Roiphe’s critique of NYC private school anxiety is excellent, with just one problem:

The most sought-after school in my neighbourhood, a famously open-minded and progressive and arty yet very exclusive private school, is conferring a kind of creativity on the parents, so that even if they are bankers or hedge-fund guys, as many of them frankly are, they can tell themselves in the dark of night that they are creative people, because their children attend this impeccably creative school. And if they are creative people – that is, people who have somehow made enough money to send their children to this school, but work in film or music or advertising – they can congratulate themselves on their creativity, even if they are not, although in a creative profession, exactly creating anything themselves. The secret suspicion that you might be a hack, a glorified hack, making a rather nice living doing something fun (but not truly living out your fantasy of creating art the way you honestly thought you would be in college), well, the cheque you make out to that fancy, creative, open place you are sending your child to is proving otherwise. They are putting on operas when they are three years old, after all. They are illustrating Wallace Stevens poems by the time they are six. How could anyone accuse you of just being a banker, or a music executive, or an internet guy with good glasses? I have a friend whose five-year-old attends this school. She and her husband were pleased that when their daughter had an assignment to write down what she wanted to be when she grew up she wrote “artist”. But when they arrived at the class presentation the next day they saw that all 22 children had put down “artist”: there were no “veterinarians”, no “circus acrobats”, no “doctors”, no “hair cutters”. Twenty two artists, and one kindergarten class: the school, you see, does not play around.

Right on. But which neighborhood? And which school? St Anne’s? Dalton? Little Red Schoolhouse? Someplace else? Or would naming names jeopardize her own kids’ admissions chances? The critique of NYC private school anxiety is simultaneously a performance of the same thing.

Politics

Strong Plurality Of Michigan Voters Support Amending State Constitution To Protect Collective Bargaining

Last November, Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) won a decisive 18 point victory in his race for the governor’s mansion. Yet after less than three months of draconian budget proposals and unconstitutional assaults on collective bargaining, Snyder is hurting. A new poll finds that Snyder would lose his election if it were held today, and that a strong plurality of the state would support amending the state constitution to prevent Snyder from continuing his anti-union agenda:

Snyder’s also earned the ire of the voters because of the perception that he’s targeting collective bargaining rights. 59% of folks in Michigan think that public employees should have the right to collective bargaining while only 32% are opposed, and 49% of voters even favor a state constitutional amendment to guarantee collective bargaining rights while 37% are opposed to such a measure. While union households are obviously the most supportive of collective bargaining, nonunion households support it by a 53/39 margin as well so the voters Snyder is antagonizing on this issue go beyond who you might expect.

As ThinkProgress previously explained, Michigan voters can amend the state constitution by petition and referendum. Just 10 percent of the electorate can place an amendment protecting collective bargaining on the ballot, and a simple majority of the electorate can turn it into law.

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