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Truth To Power: My Podcast With Dylan Ratigan

Dylan Ratigan: “We have this unholy alliance between business and state, that allows the energy companies to effectively either use off balance sheet accounting, like the Pentagon, to secure energy resources, or off balance sheet accounting like environmental costs that none of which are reflected in the cost at the pump, or for that matter, coal, or whatever the fuel source is.”

MSNBC and radio talk show host Dylan Ratigan has spent this week looking at why our nation’s broken energy policy threatens the future of America. He’s talked with former CIA director Jim Woolsey on the implications for national security and Texas tycoon T. Boone Pickens about the limits of the global oil supply. In an interview for his podcast, he conversed with yours truly about the environmental consequences of our broken fossil-fuel economy. I told him what I believe are the biggest environmental threats we Americans face:

The essential threat that we don’t have any system to deal with right now and that threatens genuinely global civilization is essentially the carbon loading of our atmosphere and our oceans. So global warming, ocean acidification, those are not just threats that are changing our health today, but because there’s no system to handle it, that’s one of the biggest reasons that I have to put it at the top of the list. Of course, if you’re a citizen living in a coal hollow in Appalachia or you’re someone downwind of a power plant in a city, then the fact that even though there are laws on the books to protect the health of the people and the water there, the fact that those laws are not being enforced probably ends up being the key threat for those people.

Listen here:

“The more we can identify the same problem and address that core problem, which is this unholy alliance between business and state, effectively, in our country, whether it’s the healthcare companies or the energy companies, we might be able to begin to solve some of these problems,” Ratigan remarked.

“Unless we get off this carousel, it’s not like these changes will just stop,” I concluded. “Every decade will keep on changing and getting worse in less predictable ways that we just don’t simply understand.”

Listen to the full interview and read the transcript at DylanRatigan.com.

Yglesias

The Quasi-War

Not a lot of people know about the so-called “Quasi-War” fought between the United States and France during the John Adams administration, but I think it’s an important episode to recall for the purposes of ongoing debates about the Obama administration’s protestations that the ongoing war in Libya somehow really isn’t a war.

The point isn’t that Obama is right—he’s wrong—but that this is how the game’s always been played. From the administration of the second president ever, we were fighting an undeclared war on presidential authority. And of course Adams’ congressional opponents complained about it. And when they took over the White House, they certainly changed the basic orientation of American foreign policy. But they didn’t really change the practice around this declaration of war business. Instead the new undeclared war was one against Barbary Pirates. Which isn’t to say that congress wasn’t involved in the fight against the pirates. The key point was that congress appropriated funds to send the obtain and dispatch the ships. And from thence onward, despite the fact that we sometimes did get formal declarations of war (World War One and World War Two) and sometimes had a special congressional vote (Gulf War One and Gulf War Two) and sometimes had wars purely on executive recognizance (Civil War, Korea) that congress has always played an important role in the process as the institution that runs the appropriations process.

Which is to say that congressional authorization for the Lincoln administration’s prosecution of a war against the CSA took the form of appropriations and other measures to create the Union Army. And in the case of something like Libya, congressional authorization takes the form of the fact that we just this week had a giant political fight about appropriations in which nobody in the opposition leadership made the slightest gesture in the direction of a “rider” that would prevent the president from prosecuting that war or limiting his discretion in initiating new wars. This is what happens almost every year—congress appropriates funds for a military, and does little to tie the president’s hands in terms of how he uses it. When congress wants to tie the president’s hands—as it did in the seventies when it stopped the Ford administration from continuing involvement in the defense of South Vietnam—congress gets its way. But most of the time congress doesn’t want to tie the president’s hands.

Yglesias

The Economics Of Attention

One of the most important things about the health care and education segments of the economy is that part of what customers want is attention. Parents like the idea of small class sizes, and patients like the reassuring face-to-face presence of a doctor with a good bedside manner. But personal attention has the pretty special characteristic of being immune to productivity enhancements. This creates the following trilemma as economy-wide productivity rises:

— One: The wages of teachers and doctors can fall relative to average wages, because teachers and doctors aren’t increasing their productivity as rapidly as the average worker.

— Two: Paying the salaries of teachers and doctors can account for an ever-growing share of national output, because the rest of our output is getting more efficient and teaching and treating isn’t.

— Three: The amount of attention provided by teachers and doctors to students and patients can decline.

It’s not that you need to pick one of those three things, but you can’t pick zero of them. And it’s not that three necessarily needs to mean declining educational and health outcomes. Attention is important to people, subjectively, but it’s hardly the only thing that matters for learning and it’s definitely not the only thing that matters for health. If doctors spend less time with their patients but are able to prescribe more effective drugs, that’s a net benefit. And it’s possible to increase reliance on less-trained kinds of medical professionals who are paid less than doctors but may still be competent to perform attention-paying functions. On instinct, though, people’s preferences are for smaller classes, more face time with doctors, and more of a sense of personalization and customization. I still hear older people sometimes reminisce about the doctors of yore who’d pay house calls, hardly noticing that this inefficient use of medical professionals’ time just reflects low economy-wide productivity.

I find that a frustratingly large share of discussions of these issues involves too much talk of dollars and cents and not enough qualitative talk along these lines. That allows people to avoid saying what they mean. Hold the growth of federal health spending to the rate of inflation? Sounds great! But what does it look like? If the bottom third of the income distribution stops being able to afford to see the doctor, that frees up more doctors’ time to pay attention to richer people. So that’s one possible answer. But if that’s what you mean, that’s what you should say. And if you think we need to increase the relative wages of teachers while further shrinking class sizes and sustain that policy over time, it’ll mean steadily increasing taxes, no one-off increase will undue the Baumol Effect. That’s one possible answer—America is lightly taxed compared to other rich countries—but you owe it to yourself at least to face up to that.

Yglesias

Debt Ceiling and Shutdown

Incidentally, I think the dynamics of a debt ceiling faceoff and the dynamics of an appropriations faceoff are quite different. That’s because a lapsing of appropriations triggers a very specific set of occurrences. When appropriations lapse, it becomes illegal for the federal government to do anything not related to the “essential functions” of human and population security. The key issue here isn’t that the government doesn’t have money. If you’re willing to work without pay temporarily, you’re not allowed to work if you’re deemed non-essential.

This is hugely disruptive and it’s obviously very burdensome to people who rely on government services.

The debt limit is a different kind of thing. When the Treasury lacks authority to engage in new borrowing, all that means is that the Treasury lacks the authority to engage in new borrowing. Nothing else has to happen. Some money will still be flowing in, which means some money can continue to flow out. And the administration has some flexibility in how it handles this. What’s more, the government can ask people to continue to do things in exchange for IOUs. Large defense contractors, for example, don’t live on a paycheck to pacycheck basis. And if Robert Gates calls up an airplane manufacturer and says “look, we can’t pay you this month but keep building the planes and we’ll pay what we owe once the debt ceiling fight is resolved” the guys who build the planes are going to keep on building planes. There’s no dramatic “hostage” moment, there’s just a small-but-growing inconvenience for a large number of people who rely in part on government checks to make a living. That all happens well before the federal government would be forced into a default scenario where it can’t pay off bondholders.

How that plays out in practice seems to me difficult to predict, but it’s not the same as shutdown dynamics.

Politics

CHART: As Services For Main Street Are Gutted, Richest Pay Lowest Taxes In A Generation

Last night President Obama and congressional negotiators cut a deal to keep the government running, cutting “$38.5 billion under current funding levels, per Republican demands,” and $78 billion below what Obama called for in his initial 2011 budget.

Yet as Republicans and Democrats continue to battle over the deficit within a political framing that includes taking aim at Pell Grants for low-income students — which Obama preemptively proposed to cut, calling summer grants “too expensive,” while Republicans want far deeper cuts than that — Head Start funding, and other programs from Main Street Americans, there is one group of Americans that seems to be getting away without having any sacrifices demanded of them: the very richest.

As this chart from from Wealth for the Common Good shows, the top 400 taxpayers — who have more wealth than half of all Americans combined — are paying lower taxes than they have in a generation, as their tax responsibilities have slowly collapsed since the New Deal era as working families have been asked to pay more and more:

There have been a handful of proposals by congressional progressives to once again put requiring more sacrifice from the luckiest among us back on the table. The Congressional Progressive Caucus recently unveiled a “People’s Budget” that would boost taxes on the wealthiest Americans, returning them to levels closer to where they were under Ronald Reagan’s first term — hardly socialism.

Yet these proposals have yet to gain steam, and the budget debate in Washington appears to revolve completely around cutting spending for Main Street Americans who’ve already been asked to pay too much during the recession. That’s why there’s a Main Street Movement demanding fair sacrifice and standing up for the great American middle class. Whether it succeeds may determine the fate of most hard-working Americans for a generation to come.

Yglesias

Digital Currency And The Zero Lower Bound

Once upon a time, “money” referred to coins made out of precious metals. Then circulation began to primarily consist of pieces of paper that were redeemable in exchange for fixed quantities of precious metals. But more recently we’ve shifted to a system of fiat money—a paper dollar is exchangeable for some euro coins or for a little mark on your bank account saying that you have a dollar in there. And in the modern day the vast majority of the money is electronic, rather than physical currency. CAP doesn’t ever hand me an envelop full of bills, they directly deposit the money in my bank account. And the majority of that money flows out again in electronic form—Bank of America takes some to pay my mortgage, Chase takes some to pay my credit card bills, Comcast and Pepco take some to pay my utilities, etc. The physical cash is just a small residual element.

But it continues to play an important role in the macroeconomy. That’s because it’s the main reason for the existence of a “zero lower bound” on interest rates.

The general idea of interest rates is that to the extent that they’re lower, people will be less interested in holding currency in the bank and more interested in obtaining some goods, services, or investments. But if our bank started paying a negative interest rate (i.e., charging you to store money) this mechanism would break down. You’d want to largely “invest” in shoeboxes full of pieces of paper with Ulysses Grant’s face on them. But this is purely an artifact of the existence of the paper money residuum. If we moved to a system in which all transactions are done electronically (debit cards, credit cards, direct deposit, electronic transfer, etc.) then going from 1 percent interest rate to -1 percent interest rate would be no different from going from 7 percent interest rate to 5 percent interest rate. The gains for macroeconomic stabilization (and tax enforcement) could be huge. And it’s only a matter of time before someone tries it. The question is who’ll go first? My bet would be on Singapore, South Korea, or perhaps Sweden.

Politics

GOP Rep. Posey Mocks Critics Of Big Oil: ‘Quit Trying To Play Pin The Tail On The Donkey!’

Last month, the entire House Republican caucus voted to defend corporate welfare for Big Oil, stopping any attempt to remove billions of dollars of subsidies for the industry. Many of these companies exploit the tax code to pay very little in taxes, with companies like Exxon Mobil paying absolutely nothing in federal corporate income taxes in 2009.

On Thursday, Rep. Bill Posey (R-FL) took to the floor of the House of Representatives to mock those who are outraged about the protection of subsidies for Big Oil, while services for Main Street Americans are slashed. He jokingly called them the “evil oil companies” and said that “corporations don’t pay taxes. Corporations collect taxes.” He instructed critics of Big Oil to “quit trying to play pin the tail on the donkey,” suggesting that they were unfairly targeting the industry:

POSEY: Those evil oil companies, the answer to all our problems is to tax them more. As if the members of this body and the public is stupid enough to think that at the end of the year those big oil companies are just going to write a check for another zillion dollars. Let’s say we tax those evil oil companies another dollar a gallon. They’re not going to write the check, we know what’s going to happen, they’re going to raise the price a dollar a gallon. Or given the corporate greed we sometimes see round it off to two dollars. Corporations don’t pay taxes. Corporations collect taxes. They collect taxes from consumers who ultimately pay the tax. You add a tax to a product and a consumer’s going to pay more. It doesn’t pass the straight face test. I wish we would quit, as the gentleman from the Texas said, quit trying to play pint he tail on the donkey. We know corporations don’t pay taxes. Consumers pay taxes, corporations just collect it.

Watch it:

Exxon Mobil likely appreciates Posey’s defense of their industry. He received $2,000 from their federal PAC during the 2009-2010 election cycle. And his economic argument doesn’t pan out. A Joint Economic Committee report found that “the removal or modification of [one of these subsidies] is unlikely to have any effect on consumer prices for oil and gas.” For the record, 74 percent of Americans favor ending Big Oil subsidies — people that Posey calls “stupid.”

Health

Deal To Avert Govt Shutdown Prohibits DC From Funding Abortion Services

Early reports about last night’s showdown-averting $38.5 billion agreement indicate that while Republicans dropped their demand to end federal funding for Planned Parenthood — in return for a guarantee that the issue would receive an up or down vote on the Senate floor — a provision that would prohibit the District of Columbia from using federal or local funds to pay for abortions remained.

But this, like the effort to defund Planned Parenthood, would not actually save the federal government any money, since the rider would prohibit the District from spending its own locally-raised dollars on the procedure. As Tanya Somanader pointed out earlier this week, the provision would revive a 13-year ban President Obama overturned in 2009:

This language would restore the Dornan amendment to ensure that no congressionally appropriated funds (whether locally or federally generated) may pay for abortion in the District of Columbia. The good news for pro-life advocates is that the inclusion of the Dornan Amendment in the one-week continuing resolution ensures it remains in place to prohibit abortion funding in the nation’s capital for the rest of the year.

The policy was in place from 1996-2009. Then, Democrats initially approved an omnibus spending bill lifting the 13-year-long ban on directly paying for abortions in the nation’s capital and Obama eventually signed the measure.

Politico reports that the final deal contains other riders, including the guarantee of a Senate debate and vote on repeal of the Affordable Care Act, “numerous studies of health reform that Republicans say ‘will force the Obama administration to reveal the true impact of the law’s mandates,’” and annual audits of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The measure also denies additional funding to hire more IRS agents.

Yglesias

Our Unconstitutional Constitution

SK writes: “Do you know of any legal path to getting rid of or disempowering the Senate that would not require Senate approval?”

It all depends on what you mean by “legal” but the short answer is “no.” The longer answer is just to observe that the existing United States Constitution was adopted by means that were, at the time, illegal. Elites felt that the Articles of Confederation were inadequate to resolving the problems of the country, so elites gathered to write a new constitution that contained a ratification procedure at odds with what’s spelled out in the Articles. Then along they went seeking ratification by various states and when they had the number the said was necessary, they declared victory and pushed ahead, installing victorious General George Washington as the new head of state and head of government.

At some point in the future if there’s some crisis, you could imagine something like that happened again. The current constitution of France has a somewhat similar origin in a political crisis followed by an extra-constitutional moment and then a referendum. These things happen, though not frequently.

Climate Progress

Budget deal keeps government open (for now), preserves EPA clean air authority, cuts cleantech

Is Boehner using Tea Party to employ Nixon’s ‘Madman’ strategy?

In the end, Boehner agreed to a package of $38.5 billion in cuts, a significant victory for a man who said his goal was to extract as much as possible from the federal budget. He also won limited victories on a handful of policy riders attached to the bill. But Boehner was forced to abandon some major demands, including Planned Parenthood, restrictions on the Environmental Protection Agency and efforts to restrict Obama’s health reform bill.

The budget deal was a limited victory for Obama, who showed that he could insert himself in the process and craft a bipartisan deal that maintained the EPA’s clean air act authority.

But strategically, Boehner would seem to have done better.  He controls only “one-half of one-third of the government,” as he often says, but he “managed to make the most of that limited leverage “” both in forcing President Obama and the Democrats to come more than halfway on his party’s demand for spending cuts, and in making the absolutists in his own ranks accept the principle that compromise is part of governing,” as the Washington Post put it in today’s front-page story.

He may be making use of Nixon’s “Madman theory” of negotiations, exploiting the “craziness” of the Tea Party, which does give him some dealmaking leverage, at the expense of messaging clarity and public perception.

Before discussing that, let me make two points.  First, the short-term deal cuts clean-tech programs (and one can assume that the full-year package will have cuts in both clean energy and  in environmental programs — but see below on how Dems avoided deeper cuts here).  Here’s some of what I was sent on a short-term deal’s $2 billion in cuts:

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