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Climate Progress

The methane hydrate feedback revisited

Methane release from the not-so-perma-frost is the most dangerous amplifying feedback in the entire carbon cycle (see “NSIDC bombshell: Thawing permafrost feedback will turn Arctic from carbon sink to source in the 2020s, releasing 100 billion tons of carbon by 2100“).

Methane (CH4) deserves attention it is such a highly potent greenhouse gas — 25-33 times more powerful than carbon dioxide (CO2) over a 100-year time-horizon, but as much as 100 time more potent over 20 years, according to the latest research!

Last year I reported on a major study in Science that found the vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores appeared to be destabilizing and venting.  The normally staid National Science Foundation issued a press release warning “Release of even a fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.”

Now there is a new Geophysical Research Letters study on a paleoclimate analog that may be relevant to humanity today, “Methane and environmental change during the Paleocene”Eocene thermal maximum (PETM): Modeling the PETM onset as a two”stage event.”

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Climate Progress

False narratives and ozone revisionism

The Nieman journalism ‘watchdog’ at Harvard reposted my initial critique of Matthew Nisbet’s Climate Shift report with the headline,Killing a false narrative before it takes hold.”

What’s been interesting to me is to see two kinds of reactions.  Many journalists have posted long discussions of the report, welcoming the debate without taking sides on all of the issues.  And that may be a reasonable role for journalists.

But scientists and science bloggers have generally taken a different view about what I do think are the many “false narratives” in the piece.  Here’s Tim Lambert (Deltoid) with his piece on “Ozone revisionism

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Security

Gary Johnson Stakes Most Pro-Immigrant Position In A Right-Wing Presidential Field

“I happen to think immigration is a good thing,” affirmed Republican presidential candidate and former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson. A few years ago, it wouldn’t have been news for a Republican candidate for major office to declare such a thing. These days, it’s hard to name a single member of the GOP who is willing to campaign on anything but a restrictionist platform of attrition through enforcement, no “amnesty,” and “build the dang fence.” Johnson, however, would like to find some way to allow undocumented immigrants to legally work in the U.S. and doesn’t believe building a border wall is going to solve any of the country’s problems:

I view immigration as a job creator, not a situation that takes away jobs. [...] Regarding the 11 million illegal immigrants who are here in this country right now. This is one of those unintended consequences of government. Government has made it impossible for individuals who want to come in to this country and work to get a work permit. So they know, that if they get across the border — even illegally — [...] they’ll get that same job. [...] There needs to be a grace period where the 11 million illegal immigrants that are in this country right now can get a legal work visa. [...]

The notion of building a fence across 2,000 miles of border, the notion of putting the national guard arm in arm across 2,000 miles of border — in my opinion — would be a whole lot of money spent with very little, if any, benefit whatsoever.

Watch it:

Most experts agree that building a costly border wall may only put a small dent in the flow of undocumented immigrants entering the country looking for a way to feed their families. It would also do little to prevent determined drug traffickers from finding new ways to sneak illicit substances into the United States.

Meanwhile, an enforcement-only policy similar to the one supported by most Republicans could cost the country billions. A guest worker program — which sounds a lot like what Johnson is proposing — would have a rather mixed effect. According to the Center for American Progress, a temporary worker program would generate an increase in U.S. GDP of 0.44 percent and amount to $792 billion of cumulative GDP over then years. However, it would also lead to a decline in wages for both native-born and newly legalized immigrant workers.

In contrast, comprehensive immigration reform that establishes flexible limits on permanent and temporary immigration would generate an increase in U.S. GDP of at least 0.84 percent and amount to a cumulative $1.5 trillion increase in additional GDP. Unlike the guest worker program that Johnson seems to support, it would also boost wages for both native-born and newly legalized immigrant workers.

Although it’s refreshing to hear a Republican talk about immigration without demanding more deportations, Johnson’s line of reasoning is shaky. According to him, immigrants are not coming across the border and taking entry-level jobs from Americans because “we as Americans, we can sit at home and collect a welfare check that’s just a little less money or the same money for doing nothing.” It’s more likely that most U.S.-born workers aren’t directly competing for jobs with immigrant workers not because they’re on welfare, but because they are occupied in entirely different labor markets.

Johnson hasn’t received nearly as much media buzz as other potential GOP candidates. Yet he did surprise many critics with his third place finish in the February CPAC straw poll.

Security

Right Wing Slams Obama For Advocating Leadership Theory That Was Espoused By Nelson Mandela

The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza has a lengthy piece out today exploring “how the Arab Spring remade Obama’s foreign policy.” The article outlines the President’s big foreign policy decisions throughout his young presidency — from the surge in Afghanistan and keeping a low profile during the Green Movement in Iran to participating in the UN mandated intervention in Libya — and ultimately ends with an interesting quote from one of Obama’s advisers:

Nonetheless, Obama may be moving toward something resembling a doctrine. One of his advisers described the President’s actions in Libya as “leading from behind.” That’s not a slogan designed for signs at the 2012 Democratic Convention, but it does accurately describe the balance that Obama now seems to be finding. It’s a different definition of leadership than America is known for, and it comes from two unspoken beliefs: that the relative power of the U.S. is declining, as rivals like China rise, and that the U.S. is reviled in many parts of the world. Pursuing our interests and spreading our ideals thus requires stealth and modesty as well as military strength. “It’s so at odds with the John Wayne expectation for what America is in the world,” the adviser said. “But it’s necessary for shepherding us through this phase.”

Predictably, the war hawks on the right picked up on this adviser’s “leading from behind” quote, and extrapolated something nefarious. War charging outfit Keep America Safe tweeted the quote and highlighted it on its website in mockery and AEI’s Danielle Pletka called it the article’s “best line.” And at Commentary, John Podhoretz claimed it damages Obama’s “chances for reelection” because it will be “thrown in his face.”

Why is the right all up in arms about this line? It’s unclear because they don’t say. Podhoretz never really says why this is bad, seemingly for him and the rest of his colleagues, perhaps it just sounds like subordination. But one of history’s most significant and important leaders thinks the idea is a good one, Nelson Mandela:

It is better to lead from behind and to put others in front, especially when you celebrate victory when nice things occur. You take the front line when there is danger. Then people will appreciate your leadership.”

Mandela biographer and Time Magazine’s Richard Stengel quoted Mandela expounding on this view:

“He said, ‘It’s interesting because there are lessons for leadership because the way you herd cattle is you lead them from behind. You find the most able and smartest cattle and have them lead the way. You empower them.’ He said that’s a good lesson for all of us. You basically have to kind of share the wealth. You have to find people who can execute your vision and ideas. I think that’s relevant not only in politics, but again even within families.”

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton — who is also quoted in the Lizza article — appeared to confirm this sentiment in Obama’s decision making on Libya. “[F]or those who want to see the United States always acting unilaterally, it’s not satisfying,” she said, “for the world we’re trying to build, where we have a lot of responsible actors who are willing to step up and lead, it is exactly what we should be doing.”

Clinton is probably right. For those like Pletka, Podhoretz and the other neocons at Keep America Safe, acting with the international community, instead of acting unilaterally against or without it, is not particularly satisfying. But as the Libyan case illustrates, the United States can still lead, but that doesn’t necessarily mean its allies can’t stand ahead of the pack.

Cross-posted at the Wonk Room.

Education

Education Committee Chairman: Congress Must Cut Pell Grants To Appease Ratings Agencies

House Education Committee Chairman John Kline (R-MN)

The credit rating agency Standard and Poor’s last week warned that “the United States is at risk of having its pristine credit rating lowered if politicians in Washington cannot agree on a plan to bring down the nation’s deficits over the long term.” This, of course, set off a predictable hue and cry from Congressional Republicans (despite S&P’s abysmal record leading up to the financial crisis).

“Today’s announcement makes clear that the debt limit increase proposed by the Obama Administration must be accompanied by meaningful fiscal reforms that immediately reduce federal spending and stop our nation from digging itself further into debt,” claimed House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA). House Education Committee Chairman John Kline (R-MN) even opined that one of the things Congress should cut to reassure the ratings agencies and global investors that the U.S. is serious about tackling its deficits is Pell Grants, which help low-income students pay for higher education:

U.S. Rep John Kline, R-Minn., said federal dollars being spent on the Pell Grant program have skyrocketed in recent years. Funding has increased from $16 billion in 2008 to $41 billion in the president’s 2012 budget proposal. Kline said lawmakers must act swiftly to scale back federal spending, referencing Standard & Poor’s recent decision to revise its forecast of the U.S. debt from stable to negative.

“The country is facing very, very serious problems — huge deficits, mountains of debt,” Kline said. “Markets globally are worried about what is happening in the United States. You have to take strong affirmative action to get us back on track.”…“When you are borrowing 42 cents of every dollar that the federal government spends, it’s pretty hard to justify a program that has tripled in costs in just a couple of years,” Kline said.

While the Obama administration has increased the maximum amount of aid available under the Pell Grant program, about 40 percent of the program’s growth in in the last few years is due to increased demand amidst the Great Recession. Reducing Pell Grants is also a pound-foolish way to cut the budget, as doing so hinders the country’s long-term economic competitiveness. America is now 12th worldwide in percentage of 25-to-34-year-olds with a college degree, and by 2025, according to estimates by the Lumina Foundation, our nation will be short 16 million college-educated workers.

If Kline and other Republican lawmakers were truly interested in a way to get the U.S. deficit under control they could look at CAP’s budget plan or the Congressional Progressive Caucus’ budget, which, according to the Economic Policy Institute, achieves a surplus almost two decades before the House Republican budget. Instead, they’re using Standard and Poor’s warning to advocate cutting aid for those who need it most.

Yglesias

The Low Cost of Waiters Deters Restaurants From Substituting Capital For Labor

Annie Lowrey has a cool piece about a firm that wants to use tablets to reduce the need for human waiters. The technology can’t completely replace a human beings since, as Rajat Suri explains, “You still need people to bring the food, to fill up the glasses, for customers to [interact with] if they want to make, like, a really complicated burger order.” But still, it could significantly reduce the staffing level necessary to run a restaurant. For now, though, firms don’t seem to be chomping at the bit to adopt the technology. Why? Well restaurant labor is already really cheap:

[L]abor costs are not 42 cents per table per hour, but they actually aren’t much more than that. Many waiters earn as little as $2 or $3 an hour, making the rest of their living in tips. Second, installing the system means paying some up-front costs and taking on some serious risk. Many customers like being waited on in restaurants and pay to dine out in part for the experience of being coddled, cared for, and catered to by some beaming teenager wearing 48 pieces of flair.

This highlights an important flaw in a lot of proposals to improve working class living standard. Sensible, risk-averse firms have good reason not to just fire people and replace them with new technology over a marginal reduction in costs. But anything you do that makes the unit labor costs higher without improving the productivity of the workforce serves to push on this calculation and bring forward the day in which large numbers of waiters and waitresses are replaced by iPads.

That’s not to say the robo-waiters of the future doom us to endless mass unemployment and immiseration. If labor costs related to waiting tables falls, over the long run that’ll mean more and better restaurants with more jobs for people with specialized skills. More sommeliers and more chefs, in other words. Consumers will also buy more things in other sectors of the economy, so there’ll be more jobs for nurses and yoga instructors. On average, replacing labor power with technology makes us better off. But the specific people who are made better-off will be the people with the complementary skills.

Politics

Forgetting America Is At War, Romney Accuses Obama Of ‘Peacetime Spending Binge’…Then Walks It Back

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) has kept a low profile since his failed 2008 primary bid, choosing to avoid TV and newspaper interviews in favor of strategically placed op-eds that hit President Obama on a chosen topic of the day. Today, Romney penned an op-ed for New Hampshire’s largest newspaper hitting the president for not being serious about the nation’s fiscal health. But Romney’s message hit a snag about halfway through the piece, when he apparently forgot the definition of “peace”:

Barack Obama is facing a financial emergency on a grander scale. Yet his approach has been to engage in one of the biggest peacetime spending binges in American history.

As Steve Benen notes, “peacetime” is an odd choice of words, given that America is currently engaged in three separate military conflicts. In fact, it has now been nearly a decade since we have experienced anything resembling “peacetime.” It seems Romney would remember that, as he went on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show last Thursday to criticize Obama’s downplaying of the conflict in Libya:

HEWITT: When last we spoke, it was about Libya. And today, the Secretary of Defense announced that the President has authorized the use of armed drones in Libya. Your reaction?

ROMNEY: Well, it’s pretty clear that the mission for our military that was outlined by the President at the outset, which was a humanitarian mission with a no-fly zone to prevent a disaster of some kind, is obviously a different mission today. The President has authorized attacking Libyan troops and tanks. We have A-10 Warthog airplanes, we have Predator drones and so forth engaged. So I think it’s time for the President to level with the American people, and with the Congress, to describe what mission he intends to employ, and why it is that we see the expansion in military involvement that we’re witnessing.

After Benen first pointed out the mistake, a Romney spokesperson told NBC’s Mark Murray, “He meant to say since World War II.”

Foreign policy certainly isn’t Romney’s strong suit. He was roundly criticized for an op-ed he wrote about the New START treaty last year. And in 2008, he was criticized by both media members and primary opponents on Iraq, first for misunderstanding the build-up to the war and then for having a seemingly fluid stance on troop withdrawal. But “war” and “peace” are pretty easy to distinguish, and it’s tough to imagine that there has ever been a presidential candidate who forgot his country was at war — in three separate countries, no less.

Update

Dave Weigel writes that the Romney team’s walk-back “makes perfect sense.”

Health

Gohmert: Obamacare Is Like Paul Ryan’s Medicare Plan, But It Would Still Lead To Govt Takeover

Since the GOP has endorsed Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) plan to completely privatize Medicare, some Republicans have abandoned their claim that the Affordable Care Act would lead to single payer government health care and begun arguing that Ryan’s reforms are very similar to the exchange structure in the ACA. “It’s exactly like Obamacare,” said NRSC chairman Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) in the Capitol several weeks ago. “It is. It’s exactly like it. Which strikes me as bizarre that you’re seeing so much pushback [from Democrats].”

This afternoon, during an appearance on ‘Point of View,’ Gohmert attempted to balance these two completely contradictory arguments by arguing that the ACA would lead to more private competition and a government takeover simultaneously:

GOHMERT: But with regard to Medicare, it actually does what Obamacare does, but it does so far more efficiently. It gives patients far more control and that is it gives money in order to provide what’s needed to buy private health insurance. That would be far better than having the government takeover the health insurance business which is what we’ve been told what we’re all about here with Obamacare.

Listen here:

While there are certain structural similarities between the ACA and Ryan proposals, the GOP budget would move seniors from a comprehensive system into one that is decidedly less efficient and more costly. As the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has pointed out in its analysis of the Ryan proposal, “a typical beneficiary would spend more for health care….[because] private plans would cost more than traditional Medicare because of the net effect of differences in payment rates for providers, administrative costs, and utilization of health care services.”

Yglesias

The Politics of Gas Prices

PT asks:

Politicians have attempted to make hay out of rising gas prices for as long as I’ve been alive; and since gas prices can generally be relied upon to have a long-term trend which is upward, and fluctuations which are up (fast) and down (slow), this is an understandable impulse. That said: is there any evidence that attempts to make political hay out of gas prices have ever been successful? Even a little bit?

I think it’s difficult to know how you would test this. High gasoline prices have a negative impact on macroeconomic conditions in the United States, and poor economic conditions have a meaningful impact on election outcomes. Since politicians invariably try to make hay out of gas prices, we don’t have a good control case about what would happen if everyone just forgot to mention the issue. My guess is that the precise quality of the hay that’s made has no real impact over and above the impact of overall economic conditions but that failure to address the subject would signal to people that you’re oddly out of touch. But since nobody’s out of touch enough to fail to address it, we don’t have a good experiment.

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