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Climate Progress

National Academy calls on nation to “substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions” starting ASAP

Final report warns, “Waiting for unacceptable impacts to occur before taking action is imprudent because … many of these changes will persist for hundreds or even thousands of years.”

NAS 100

“The number of days per year in which temperatures are projected to exceed 100°F by late this century” on our current (high) emissions path, A1FI

Last May, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences released the first of its “America’s Climate Choices” reports (see NAS labels as “settled facts” that “the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities”).  Today, they released their final ACC report.

The good news is that the Academy is clear about the need to start reducing greenhouse gas emissions “as soon as possible” (for some reason the acronym, ASAP, sounds stronger).   The AP story got that message:  “Panel Says US Must Act Now to Curb Global Warming.”

The bad news is that the report is otherwise rather bland and conservative in that classic NAS style.  If your house were on fire, the NAS would take three months to write a report that says you should put out the fire “as soon as possible” (and, of course, you should do some adaptation planning for the potential loss of your home).

Dr. Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist at NCAR, wrote in an email that, while he agrees generally with the findings, “my quick summary is that there is a lot here that is good but it doesn’t seem to go far enough.”

The NAS also makes a mistake that is emblematic of its conservative approach, as we will see.

Read more

Health

Romney Has No Good Answer On How His Health Plan Would Provide Coverage For Sicker Americans

During what was promoted as a “major” health policy address this afternoon, Mitt Romney suggested that insurers should be able to sell policies across state lines and states should design different health care reforms. But when pressed on how he could prevent healthier individuals from moving to cheaper but less comprehensive insurance based in states with fewer protections and leaving states with more rigorous regulations with sicker, more expensive patients, the best Romney could muster is — they can vote their leaders out of office before ironically making the case for strengthening safety net programs:

Q: What’s to keep states from having to race to the bottom? …

ROMNEY: The answer is, the people of that state are going to vote out of office the people who don’t do a good job. States are competing…I also think there is a recognition in this country that we’re a grand and generous people. The idea that we would ever say to people, ‘tough luck, you’re poor, you’re not going to have health care,’ that’s just not Americans. We’re going to care for one another.

Watch it:

To figure out how Romney’s deregulation scheme would really play out, it’s worth considering what happened to the banking industry following a pair of Supreme Court decisions deregulating the industry: credit card companies relocated to states with no interest rate caps and charged “what they wanted” to borrowers in states with interest rate limits. They used pricing practices “like teaser rates, to attract cash-strapped families and then…double or triple those rates without notice.”

Why wouldn’t the same thing happen in health insurance? An insurance company could establish itself in the Cayman Islands for instance — as the GOP’s health care law allowed — and sell policies to New Yorkers who are ostensibly protected by tougher regulations that may require coverage for maternity care and cancer screenings. Only in this case, an insurer could flaunt New York’s consumer protections and essentially extend the Cayman Islands’ loose regulatory policies to New York. Healthy individuals would move to cheaper plans from the Cayman Islands while New York insurers — with their more rigorous insurance regulations — would be left with sicker, more expensive patients—and higher premiums.

Politics

While South Carolina Proposes Ban On Sharia Law, Former State AG Says He’s Never ‘Encountered’ It

ThinkProgress filed this report from the first Republican presidential debate in Greenville, SC

Politicians in South Carolina, like many states, have decided to propose a ban on Sharia law. Defending his legislation, bill sponsor State Sen. Mike Fair (R-SC) has claimed that there “are some localities around the country that have imposed Sharia law in lieu of local laws.” University of South Carolina law professor Howard Stravitz, however, has argued that not only is Sharia law non-existent in state courts, but Fair’s bill is both ill-conceived and unconstitutional.

While traveling in South Carolina for the Fox News-sponsored Republican presidential debate last week, we caught up with former South Carolina Attorney General Henry McMaster, a Republican fighting to reject health reform as unconstitutional, to ask him about the issue. As top prosecutor for the state, McMaster seemed confused by the Sharia ban, and explained to us that he has never “encountered” it being used in “American courts”:

FANG: Some critics have said there’s no actual threat of sharia law being imposed on Americans. The reason folks are proposing this ban on Sharia is just politics to demonize Muslims.

MCMASTER: I don’t know the details on it, but I know in American courts its American laws. In Chinese courts, its Chinese law. [...]

FANG: In your time as Attorney General, have you encountered Sharia law being imposed in any way here in South Carolina?

MCMASTER: I haven’t encountered anything except American law. [...] By American, the decisions of the Supreme Court, laws passed, statutes passed by Congress or by the state of South Carolina, the constitution of the state of South Carolina.

Watch it:

Many leading Republicans have staked out far right positions by demagoguing Muslims and claiming that the community is trying to impose Sharia on non-Muslim Americans. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) called Sharia an “existential threat to America,” and former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain told ThinkProgress’ Scott Keyes that he “will not” appoint a Muslim in his administration because of similar fears.

Bills like the one offered in South Carolina are popping up in states around the country. “The proliferation of fearmongering anti-Sharia laws over the past year demonstrates a rise in legislative action that threatens to entrench feelings of hostility and ill will towards Muslim Americans,” notes ThinkProgress’ Zaid Jilani.

LGBT

Big Tobacco Targets LGBT Community With Menthol Cigarettes And Predatory Advertising

A new issue brief from the Center for American Progress reveals that tobacco companies have engaged in predatory marketing against the LGBT community through the sale of menthol-flavored cigarettes, the only kind of flavored cigarettes the FDA did not ban in 2009. As a result, the continued legalization of menthol cigarettes has a hugely disproportionate impact on the health of the LGBT community.

It has already been reported that smoking rates within the LGBT community are twice that of the general population. The American Lung Association documents (PDF) that gays and lesbians are more likely to smoke because of the stress of homophobia, and a study of transgender Americans shows that they also smoke at higher rates because of the stigma they experience. The direct marketing of menthol cigarettes, however, exacerbates this problem. According to a report from the National LGBTQ Young Adult Tobacco Project (PDF), 71 percent of LGBT youth who smoke cigarettes smoke menthol cigarettes.

The ultimate impact is severe. Tobacco use causes at least 30,000 gay and lesbian deaths annually (PDF). A report released this week also suggests that gay men are significantly more likely to have had cancer than straight men due in part to the elevated rates of smoking.

While the banning of menthol cigarettes — as the FDA recently recommended — would not reduce the environmental stress and stigma that often leads to LGBTs’ higher smoking rates, it would go far to minimizing the health disparities. Studies have shown that menthol cigarettes pose a more significant health risk than non-menthol cigarettes. More importantly, the effect of predatory marketing would be greatly reduced. A National Cancer Institute study (PDF) found that 39 percent of all menthol cigarette smokers would quit smoking altogether rather than switch to another brand. The number was significantly higher (47 percent) for African Americans, another group significantly targeted by menthol cigarette marketing.

If menthol cigarettes are not banned, they will continue to disproportionately impact communities that already have societal stigmas stacked against them.

Yglesias

Newt Gingrich Used To Love Individual Health Insurance Mandates

Sam Stein deploys the power of Lexis-Nexis to discover that conservatives “man of ideas” Newt Gingrich has very similar ideas to Mitt Romney and Barack Obama about the desirability of an individual mandate to purchase health insurance:

In a June 2007 op-ed in the Des Moines Register, Gingrich wrote, “Personal responsibility extends to the purchase of health insurance. Citizens should not be able to cheat their neighbors by not buying insurance, particularly when they can afford it, and expect others to pay for their care when they need it.” An “individual mandate,” he added, should be applied “when the larger health-care system has been fundamentally changed.” [...]

In 2008′s “Real Change,” he wrote, “Finally, we should insist that everyone above a certain level buy coverage (or, if they are opposed to insurance, post a bond). Meanwhile, we should provide tax credits or subsidize private insurance for the poor.”

Stein also quotes from a 2005 Gingrich book that was literally called “Winning The Future” and that describes the basic structure of the Affordable Care Act, up to and including the Medicad expansion:

People whose income is too low should receive Medicaid vouchers and tax credits to buy insurance,” he continued. “Large risk pools (association health plans are one model) should be established so low-income people can buy insurance as inexpensively as large corporations. Furthermore, it should be possible to buy your health insurance on-line to lower the cost as much as possible.”

Yglesias

Endgame

I fell in love with you:

— Jews and Koreans need to stick together.

— In defense of diaspora cuisine.

— New urban policy news aggregator.

— Absent RomneyCare, who would even care about Mitt Romney?

— Harvard doesn’t seem to be remotely worth paying for but as I say people pay for summer camp.

— I can’t get enough of this giant school spending/poverty/performance interactive.

— For the great stagnation files.

I just can’t quit Mitt Romney, so here’s “Mass Pike”.

Politics

5 Things You Should Know About Romney’s Health Care Proposal

nullThe bottom line about Mitt Romney’s “new” health care plan is that it reads exactly like his health care plan from the 2008 campaign, which looks very similar to the GOP House alternative offered in the midst of the 2009 health care reform legislative battle and Sen. John McCain’s (R-AZ) 2008 campaign plan. In other words — a rehash of traditional GOP prescriptions that deregulate the insurance market without providing adequate coverage to the sickest Americans or significantly reducing health care costs. Here are five things you should know about Romney’s plan:

1. Romney says he would empower states with greater flexibility by block-granting the Medicaid program, the federal/state initiative that provides coverage to senior citizens and poor Americans. But as a recent Kaiser Family Foundation report has pointed out, converting the existing matching rate formula into a block grant would give states less money that they would have otherwise received and force local governments to cut eligibility to the program. Kaiser examined different scenarios for state responses to reduced federal Medicaid spending and estimated 31 to 44 million Americans could lose their health insurance coverage.

2. Romney would “reform the tax code to promote the individual ownership of health insurance” and “give individuals a choice between the current system and a tax deduction to buy insurance on their own.” He thinks this would create “the best of both worlds” by allowing certain individuals to leave their employer-sponsored health insurance plans and find coverage on the individual market. But this would only entice young healthy workers to buy cheaper but less substantive insurance in the individual insurance plan market place, increasing costs for sicker workers and forcing some to opt out entirely. Among those who would lose their health care are 56 million Americans with pre-existing chronic health conditions. The credits would also fail to cover the cost of comprehensive coverage.

3. Romney says that “individuals who are continuously covered for a specified period of time may not be denied access to insurance because of pre-existing conditions” — a good idea that’s made even better by the Affordable Care Act that he wants to repeal. He’s also advocating for allowing individuals “to purchase insurance across state lines, free from costly state benefit requirements.” This means that insurers would be able to circumvent consumer protections in certain states and sell bare-bone subprime policies to the healthiest (and most profitable) beneficiaries. Companies would have little incentive to do business in states that require coverage for such things as cancer screenings or have guaranteed issue protections and sell plans across the country that deny coverage altogether to high-cost cases. The Affordable Care Act includes a similar — but far better regulated — provision that allows states to form compacts in which they can establish their own regulations.

4. Romney wants to “reform medical liability” and have the federal government “provide innovation grants to states for reforms, such as alternative dispute resolution or health care courts.” The current health care law already includes similar demonstration projects, even if the Congressional Budget Office has concluded that malpractice reforms could at most save $54 billion over 10 years.

5. Finally, Romney proposes establishing Health Savings Accounts and eliminating “the minimum deductible requirement for HSAs.” This may help some healthy people but will do little to aid Americans with expensive chronic conditions who will quickly deplete their savings accounts.

Yglesias

Individualism And Insurance Are a Bad Match

My colleague Igor Volsky has five smart points about Mitt Romney’s new health care proposals, of which I think point two is the most interesting:

Romney would “reform the tax code to promote the individual ownership of health insurance” and “give individuals a choice between the current system and a tax deduction to buy insurance on their own.” He thinks this would create “the best of both worlds” by allowing certain individuals to leave their employer-sponsored health insurance plans and find coverage on the individual market. But this would only entice young healthy workers to buy cheaper but less substantive insurance in the individual insurance plan market place, increasing costs for sicker workers and forcing some to opt out entirely. Among those who would lose their health care are 56 million Americans with pre-existing chronic health conditions. The credits would also fail to cover the cost of comprehensive coverage.

I feel like our political system keeps spinning its wheels around the point. But the issue is that insurance is a matter of pooling risks. It works better if you have big pools. The federal civilian workforce is a really big pool. So is Medicare. So is the entire population of Canada. A typical large private employer in the United States isn’t as good, but it’s pretty big and it works pretty well. In principle, though, the United States should have a lot of advantages. We’re much bigger than Canada and could create a truly enormous integral pool. Things that make it easier for random people to drop out of employer-sponsored pools sound pretty appealing. But if you do it à la Romney (or the somewhat similar John McCain campaign proposal) all you get is even more fragmentation. To make this idea work you need some regulatory measures—exchanges and mandates and risk-adjustment—to turn the individual market into a large pool.

That’s why when Mitt Romney was governor of Massachusetts his health care plan had those features, and that’s why the Affordable Care Act has them.

Security

Republicans Kill Amendment That Would Have Prevented Suspected Terrorists From Buying Firearms

Last year, a GAO report found that individuals on the federal terror watch list were able to purchase firearms from licensed dealers more than 1,000 times. And just last month, the GAO reported that nearly 1300 people on that list purchased guns since 2004.

Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL) argued recently that this “terror gap” needs to be closed:

Nearly a decade after 9/11, the federal government can prevent suspects on terror watch lists from boarding an airplane but not from buying firearms. The Bush and Obama administrations both endorsed a bill that would close the gap, but Congress hasn’t acted.

Making good on his word, Quigley sponsored an amendment to the FISA Sunsets Reauthorization Act of 2011 that would allow the Attorney General to “deny transfer of a firearm if information obtained through the use of authorites” under FISA “indicates that a prospective firearm transferee is or has been engaged in conduct constituting, in preparation for, in aid of, or related to terrorism.”

Yet the House Judiciary Committee this afternoon voted against that amendment, 22-11, straight down party lines, with all “Nay” votes coming from Republicans and all “Ayes” coming from Democrats. Echoing arguments made by National Rifle Association leaders, Reps. Louis Gohmert (R-TX) and Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI) spoke out in opposition of the amendment, saying it infringes upon people’s Second Amendment rights.

But while the NRA leadership may feel this way, its members do not. Last year, ThinkProgress attended the NRA’s annual conference in Charlotte, NC and asked dozens of NRA members if those on the terrorist watch list should be able to purchase firearms and an overwhelming majority agreed that they should not. Watch the video:

Economy

FLASHBACK: Boehner Used Same Rhetoric To Disparage Clinton’s Budget In 1993 As Obama’s In 2011

Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH) delivered an address Monday night at the Economic Club of New York, where (in addition to botching several key economic points) he reiterated that House Republicans will not consider tax increases as a legitimate option for reducing the deficit. “The big myth of the current budget debate is the notion that in order to balance the budget, we have to raise taxes. The truth is we will never balance the budget and rid our children of debt unless we cut spending and have real economic growth,” he said.

Boehner, in one fell swoop, pronounces that “everything is on the table” to reduce the deficit, before immediately taking one half of the federal ledger — taxes — off the table. But this is far from the first time that Boehner has attempted to convince the country that the budget can and should be brought into balance entirely on the spending side. In fact, on June 12, 1993, Boehner gave the weekly Republican radio address and used it to attack the tax increases and budget proposed by President Bill Clinton:

We Republicans are relegated to the sideline, even though we have a solid plan ready to go to reduce the deficit, a plan that calls for no tax increases and true cuts in government spending. [...]

The hard simple truth is, the President is taking us down the path of more taxes, more spending, and bigger government…President Clinton must understand that he has to cut spending, for real. He has to reduce the deficit, for real. And level with this nation about the direction he wants to take us.

Watch it:

Two months after this speech, Clinton’s 1993 tax increases were passed without a single Republican vote, and Boehner was far from the only one who said that the move would “kill jobs,” “kill the economic recovery,” and “set loose [a] dreadful virus into the economic bloodstream.” In reality, Clinton’s policies ushered in the longest sustained period of economic growth in the nation’s history, with 23 million jobs created. Compared to the administration of George W. Bush, the Clinton-era saw more job growth, more GDP growth, more wage growth, and more business investment.

Of course, it could be that Boehner is well-aware of all this and is just playing politics. After all, one Senate GOP aide admitted to the Atlantic’s Derek Thompson that his party’s no-taxes stance isn’t “intellectually honest” and is all about political gamesmanship.

(HT: Glenn Kessler)

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