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Politics

Democrat Kathy Hochul Beats Republican Jane Corwin In New York’s 26th District

Tonight, Democrat Kathy Hochul defeated Republican state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin in New York’s special election to replace former Rep. Chris Lee (R-NY). Despite the $2.36 million spent by groups like Karl Rove’s American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to keep the district red and the $60 per vote Corwin spent herself, Hochul secured a clear victory in a traditionally Republican district:

Kathy Hochul has won the special election in the 26th Congressional race, holding a six percent lead with 87% of precincts reporting.

Republican Jane Corwin has conceded.

Viewed as a referendum on House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan to end Medicare, Hochul’s victory exemplifies the American public’s overwhelming disgust with the GOP push to force seniors to bear the burden of increasing health costs. Expecting a loss, several Republicans — including Corwin herself — tried to assert the election had nothing to do with Ryan’s Medicare plan. But DCCC chairman Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) outlined the three reasons that Corwin lost the election: “[I]n alphabetical order, Medicare, Medicare and Medicare.

Despite Corwin indeed crumbled as a result of the American public’s disillusionment with the GOP agenda. And now, Hochul becomes the fourth Democrat to represent the district since 1857. “And this is only the first seat,” said Israel.

Security

VIDEO: AIPAC Attendees Say Jews Who Criticize Israel Are Traitors, Demand Loyalty To Netanyahu

Today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before the U.S. Congress. Despite once again rebuking the long-standing U.S. policy that Israel should withdraw to the 1967 borders with mutally agreed land swaps, Netanyahu was repeatedly applauded by Members of Congress (even moreso than Obama).

One reason the Israeli government has been able to secure such steady support for its policies, even when they conflict with U.S. policies, is due to the efforts of American Israeli Political Action Committee (AIPAC). AIPAC’s lobbying network is considered one of the nation’s finest, and every year it holds an annual convention in Washington, D.C. that is heavily attended by members of Congress, usually drawing at least half of the members of the Senate, for example.

Over the past few days, ThinkProgress attended the AIPAC conference here in Washington, D.C. We interviewed a number of attendees and asked them what they thought about Netanyahu so publicly rebuking the United States and what they think about progressive Jewish advocates who are more critical of the Israeli government.

Attendees told us that they think it’s best for all Jews to simply back Netanyahu no matter what his policies do to Palestinians or to the state of Israel, that if Israel gave up land it would face genocide like the Native Americans, and some even compared progressive, anti-occupation, pro-Israel Jewish activists to traitors. Watch a video compilation of these remarks:

Thankfully, Americans who want to resolve the Middle East conflict and help establish a just resolution that includes two safe, secure, prosperous, and free Palestinian and Israeli states do not have to support a hardline organization like AIPAC. Groups like J Street, Americans for Peace Now, and Jewish Voice for Peace offer alternatives.

– Zaid Jilani and Ali Gharib

Security

GOP Hawks Propose Green Light For Israel To Attack Iran

A day before delegates from AIPAC’s annual convention made their way to Capitol Hill to push pieces of pro-Israel legislation, Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) re-introduced a bill that would green-light an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program.

The resolution’s list of 44 co-sponsors — including GOP Reps. Michele Bachmann (MN), Mike Pence (IN) and Allen West (FL) — tracks closely with last summer’s stalled version, which garnered much support among Gohmert’s colleagues in the Tea Party Caucus. Gohmert’s resolution gives Israel support:

to use all means necessary to confront and eliminate nuclear threats posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the use of military force if no other peaceful solution can be found within reasonable time to protect against such an immediate and existential threat to the State of Israel.

This appears to be a concerted effort to usurp President Obama’s prerogative to have sole provenance over making foreign policy. Obama’s preference in this matter seems clear — members of his administration and military leaders have spoken out against an attack — and he’s reportedly expressed his thoughts to Israel.

Speaking at AIPAC yesterday, Israeli national security analyst Amos Harel told the crowd that Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen delivered a message to Israel during a February trip there. Harel characterized Mullen’s message as: “You have a clear red light from us right now, not a green light, not a yellow light, but a red light.”

What’s more, the congressional resolution comes at a time when members of Israel’s security establishment — though notably not Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — are dialing down their rhetoric on Iran.

Recently retired Israeli spy chief Meir Dagan, who is not known as a dove, recently said that the notion of Israel attacking Iran was the “stupidest thing (he had) ever heard.” Dagan warned of widespread regional conflagration — a scenario that would likely include attacks on U.S. forces and interests in the Middle East. His comments caused a flap in Israel and were subsequently defended by several other former heads of Israeli security agencies, some of whom backed his views on attacking the Islamic Republic.

Politics

Fearing Potential Upset In NY-26, Conservatives Now Insist Election Is Not A Referendum On Ryan Plan

Thanks to House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) plan to end Medicare, the GOP has watched its hold on New York’s 26th district — which has elected only three Democrats since 1857whither away. Today is the special election between Democrat Kathy Hochul and Republican Jane Corwin and, according to polls, Hochul has the edge. Desperate to minimize the damage from an unexpected potential upset, Republicans and conservative groups are insisting that the vote is in no way a referendum on Ryan’s budget plan:

CANTOR: At a weekly briefing yesterday, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) was asked whether Corwin’s defeat would be a blow against the Ryan Medicare plan. “No. Not at all.” “I know this town loves to take signals from individual races,” he said, but “this is a race about the fact that it’s a three-way race.” He then pointed back to the November 2010 elections as a better indication of how the public feels about the Republican agenda.

AMERICAN CROSSROADS: Last Friday, American Crossroads spokesman Jonathan Collegio blamed Tea Party candidate Jack Davis for unnecessarily complicating election. “The race is competitive because a phony Tea Party candidate is spending millions of dollars purposefully confusing voters in an attempt to split the Republican vote,” he said. “[L]et’s not be silly and ascribe deep ideological meaning to an atypical three-way House race in upstate New York.”

CORWIN: Corwin herself insisted today that the election was not about Ryan’s plan. “A lot of people are saying it is a referendum on the House Republicans, she said. “I think this is more about philosophies. About understanding the conservative philosophy. And how people are looking for fiscal responsibility in Washington.”

But no matter how hard conservatives spin, it can’t escape the long-attested fact that this special election is definitively about Ryan’s deeply unpopular plan. A recent Siena poll indicated that Medicare was the top issue for voters in the district, and Ryan himself raised at least $5,000 for Corwin, stating in an “urgent” email to supporters that Jane Corwin “is one of those people” who backs his goals. His Prosperity Project PAC even re-posted a Washington Post article with the headline: “N.Y. Race is a Referendum on GOP Medicare Plan.”

And indeed it is. Corwin was considered a “shoo-in” candidate until she started “vigorously” defending Ryan’s Medicare plan. After all, 84 percent of the public oppose his plan with over 70 percent viewing entitlement programs as “very” or “extremely” important to their personal financial security in retirement.

GOP pollsters even warned House Republicans before they voted on Ryan’s plan last month that is was “a political time bomb.” The poll numbers were “so toxic,” that the National Republican Congressional Committee told GOP leadership, “You might not want to go there.” But alas they did — and now, in the last hours of the election, Hochul is in the lead.

Economy

House Republicans Push Plan To Renege On Tax Deal By Cutting Unemployment Benefits

Our guest blogger is Danielle Lazarowitz, Special Assistant for the Economic Policy Team at the Center for American Progress Action Fund.

As tough as the tax deal was to swallow last December, it is about to get even worse, as Republicans are trying to eliminate the key piece of the agreement that helped working Americans. At the time, President Obama had to make the difficult compromise of extending the high-end Bush tax cuts, an unnecessary tax break for millionaires, in order to keep tax rates low for 98 percent of Americans and to continue funding for extended unemployment benefits through the end of 2011.

Earlier this month, House Republicans introduced the Jobs, Opportunity, Benefits, and Services Act of 2011 or, as they prefer to call it, the JOBS Act of 2011, which will cut unemployment benefits and allow states to apply their UI money to other things (such as tax cuts). As the Center for American Progress’ Heather Boushey and Jordan Eizenga wrote last week, “the JOBS Act, which provides an incentive for states to cut unemployment benefits, is less about creating jobs and more about hurting those who have lost one.”

And because it would cut the unemployment benefits that were a key part of the tax deal, this legislation amounts to House Republicans breaking their word. “In December, the price that had to be paid in order to give unemployment benefits to America’s workers was to give tax cuts to the richest people in America. That happened — but now they want to renege on the other side of it,” said House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) at a press conference.

With national unemployment at 9 percent and more than 40 percent of the nation’s unemployed out of work for over six months, it critical that extended unemployment benefits remain in effect. The benefits are not only an important safety net for unemployed workers who lost their jobs through no fault of their own, but good for the economy. Economist Wayne Vroman estimates that for every dollar spent on unemployment benefits, an additional $2 was put back into the economy. Meanwhile, Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi estimates that making the Bush income tax cuts permanent only puts 32 cents back into the economy for every dollar spent.

Even Republican governors see the importance of this program. As Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R) said last week as she endorsed a proposal to extend unemployment benefits, “We know that we have lots of people here in Arizona that are depending on those dollars to put food on the table for their families.”

The passage of JOBS Act would void the bipartisan agreement made in December to help the nation’s unemployed. If we can’t trust republicans to keep their word on an agreement as substantial as the tax compromise, we can only guess who they will betray next.

Security

The U.S. Congress Cheers Netanyahu’s Claim That Israel Does Not Occupy The West Bank

Today, during his speech to a joint meeting of Congress, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated himself for “publicly” committing Israel to the creation of a Palestinian state (with caveats) two years ago. He said it wasn’t easy, because it required giving up Jewish lands in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which he claimed is not currently under occupation:

Two years ago, I publicly committed to a solution of two states for two peoples: A Palestinian state alongside a Jewish state.

I am willing to make painful compromises to achieve this historic peace. As the leader of Israel, it is my responsibility to lead my people to peace. Now, this is not easy for me. It’s not easy because I recognize that in a genuine peace, we will be required to give up parts of the ancestral Jewish homeland. You have to understand this, in Judea and Samaria, the Jewish people are not foreign occupiers.

The West Bank is indeed under Israeli occupation. In fact, the West Bank is considered occupied territory under international law, something even former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon acknowledged in 2003. “You cannot like the word, but what is happening is an occupation — to hold 3.5 million Palestinians under occupation. I believe that is a terrible thing for Israel and for the Palestinians,” he said. And as Media Matters recently noted, even President Bush considers the West Bank to be under Israeli occupation. Yet, seconds after Netanyahu said “the Jewish people are not foreign occupiers” of the West Bank, the U.S. Congress erupted with a rousing standing ovation. Watch it:

“Virtually the entire US Congress is reflexively applauding everything a foreign leader says — no matter how controversial,” one observer on Twitter noted. Indeed, Herb Keinon at the Jerusalem Post noticed a similar trend during Netanyau’s speech:

Netanyahu could only dream of such a reception in Israel. Even his wife, Sarah, received a standing ovation when she entered the hall. The prime minister was applauded some 30 times, many of those accompanied by standing ovations.

It’s one thing for members of Congress to applaud foreign leaders, but it’s entirely another when they praise statements that are not based in fact, U.S. foreign policy or international law.

Cross-posted at the Wonk Room.

Security

The U.S. Congress Cheers Netanyahu’s Claim That Israel Does Not Occupy The West Bank

Today, during his speech to a joint meeting of Congress, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated himself for “publicly” committing Israel to the creation of a Palestinian state (with caveats) two years ago. He said it wasn’t easy, because it required giving up Jewish lands in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), which he claimed is not currently under occupation:

Two years ago, I publicly committed to a solution of two states for two peoples: A Palestinian state alongside a Jewish state.

I am willing to make painful compromises to achieve this historic peace. As the leader of Israel, it is my responsibility to lead my people to peace. Now, this is not easy for me. It’s not easy because I recognize that in a genuine peace, we will be required to give up parts of the ancestral Jewish homeland. You have to understand this, in Judea and Samaria, the Jewish people are not foreign occupiers.

The West Bank is indeed under Israeli occupation. In fact, the West Bank is considered occupied territory under international law, something even former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon acknowledged in 2003. “You cannot like the word, but what is happening is an occupation — to hold 3.5 million Palestinians under occupation. I believe that is a terrible thing for Israel and for the Palestinians,” he said. And as Media Matters recently noted, even President Bush considers the West Bank to be under Israeli occupation. Yet, seconds after Netanyahu said “the Jewish people are not foreign occupiers” of the West Bank, the U.S. Congress erupted with a rousing standing ovation. Watch it:

“Virtually the entire US Congress is reflexively applauding everything a foreign leader says — no matter how controversial,” one observer on Twitter noted. Indeed, Herb Keinon at the Jerusalem Post noticed a similar trend during Netanyau’s speech:

Netanyahu could only dream of such a reception in Israel. Even his wife, Sarah, received a standing ovation when she entered the hall. The prime minister was applauded some 30 times, many of those accompanied by standing ovations.

It’s one thing for members of Congress to applaud foreign leaders, but it’s entirely another when they praise statements that are not based in fact, U.S. foreign policy or international law.

Politics

CFTC Charges Oil Traders For ‘Puking’ On Market

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the nation’s regulator of oil and other futures markets, has charged crude oil speculators for artificially driving up the price of oil during 2008, when oil reached a record $147 a barrel on a speculative bubble that helped crash the global economy. James Dyer and Nicholas Wildgoose, former BP traders who were working for oil trading house Arcadia/Parnon, were charged for a scheme to hoard oil, make a “shitload of money,” and then dump it in an “inevitable puking,” according to emails acquired by the CFTC. The Financial Times reports:

The US commodities regulator has charged a trading house and two individuals with manipulating oil prices in 2008 by allegedly amassing dominant positions in the physical market that created the impression of a shortage.

Now that speculation has returned to 2008 levels, again driving up oil prices and threatening the global economic recovery, Republicans are trying to slash the CFTC budget.

Yglesias

Liberal and Conservative Brains

Via Erik Voeten, Darren Schreiber, Alan Simmons, Christopher Dawes, Taru Flagan, James Fowler, and Martin Paulus of UCSD report on the neurological correlates of political partisanship (PDF):

We matched public voter records to 54 subjects who performed a risk-taking task during functional imaging. We find that Democrats and Republicans had significantly different patterns of brain activation during processing of risky decisions. Amygdala activations, associated with externally directed reactions to risk, are stronger in Republicans, while insula activations, associated with internally directed reactions to affective perceptions, are stronger in Democrats. These results suggest an internal vs. external difference in evaluative process that illuminates and resolves a discrepancy in the existing literature. This process-based approach to political partisanship is distinct from the policy-based approach that has dominated research for at least the past half century. In fact, a two parameter model of partisanship based on amygdala and insula activations achieves better accuracy in predicting whether someone is a Democrat or a Republican than a well established model in political science based on parental socialization of party identification.

We’re seeing more and more of this kind of effort to approach political science through a life science lens, and I think it would be interesting to see more integration of this kind of work with some of the crude stylized demographic facts about American politics. A married 60 year-old regular churchgoing man is overwhelmingly likely to be a Republican if he’s white, but a Democrat if he’s black. Do you see this same neurological divergence within that kind of sub-sample?

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