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Alyssa

Foreign Policy As Heist Flick

I’ve always liked the story about two boys who grew up in Boston, wrote a movie about a sensitive working-class genius, and won an Academy Award for it. After they won that prize, the boy who played the sensitive genius went on to play a bunch of quirky roles, while the guy who played his laborer pal tried to parlay his not insubstantial jaw into an action career. But overtime, something strange happened: the sensitive boy became a superstar when he started taking roles where he hit people very hard and shot them with great precision, while the boy with the jaw sort of flamed out, and then started reinventing himself as a thoughtful director of movies about his home town. In other words, I have hopes for Ben Affleck.

And I’m particularly interested to see him step away from Boston with his next project. Argo‘s interesting for a lot of reasons. A big prestige movie about the U.S.’s tetchy relationship with Iran in the 1970s and 1980s coming at this particular moment is bound to provoke comment, especially since this is a story about the CIA pretending they’re shooting a sci-fi movie as a ruse to get diplomats out of the American embassy during the hostage crisis (something that actually happened). Rather than being a story about how the U.S. used overwhelming force to impose its will on an enemy, it’s a story about the efficacy of American cleverness, it’s foreign policy as heist flick. The film adaptation of Charlie Wilson’s War did this to a certain extent, there was an element of getting the gang together in that assemblage of Congressman, Texan do-gooder, and CIA operative. But the line between Wilson’s actions and our current involvement in Afghanistan, and the moralism of Wilson’s conviction meant the movie could never quite swagger.

But there’s an interesting space for stories about people who do the weirdest work in government because they need to accomplish things that can’t happen through the normal practice of diplomacy, intelligence, or defense. I’m amazed, for example, that no one’s optioned Ben McIntyre’s Operation Mincemeat, his book about the eccentric group of British spies who spent months cooking up a plan to plant false plans about the Allied invasion of Italy on the body of a dead man on the off chance the plans might get back to Hitler. The story is, as Malcolm Gladwell’s pointed out, a good case study for why intelligence operations might be more trouble than they’re worth. But it’s also a valuable illustration of the fact that in addition to the big heroic stories, the assault on Normandy, the conference at Yalta, there are all these messy little bits of any nation’s interests that can’t be wrapped up through conventional means and channels. They’re not the majority of our foreign policy, or our defense policy, whichever category you prefer to put them in, by any means.

But they’re there—spare diplomats and CIA contractors, cloistered terrorists and non-existent men—and they’re rich dramatic and comedic territory. We don’t have a lot of upliftingly eccentric public servants on our screens. If you’re off a bit, you’re depressing or dangerous, Bobby Goren or John Luther (and if you’re a woman, the most eccentricity you’re allowed is crankiness). Or perhaps more to the point, we don’t have genuinely innovative and creative public servants in our popular culture. Whimsy shades over so easily into wastefulness, and we’re used to a small set of mostly stolid ways for people to do their duty. I’m not saying all of our foreign policy movies should be about wacky hijinks. But there’s room for stories that tell us more about the limitations of conventional foreign policy tools, and that government is more than men in gray flannel suits.

Economy

Republican Senators Defend Corporate Jet Tax Loophole

President Obama’s call during a press conference yesterday to end a tax breaks for private jet owners has been met with derision and confusion by many the right, with most Republicans lawmakers dismissing it out of hand as just another tax hike. “Republicans weren’t having it,” the Wall Street Journal reported.

On MSNBC this afternoon, Sen. Mike Crapo (R-ID) dismissed ending the tax break as just “code for much broader, large tax increases,” saying that the jet tax break is “not the issue we’re debating here.” Watch it:

Sen. Marco Rubo (R-FL) meanwhile, told the National Review that Obama was suggesting corporate jet owners earn too much money. “[D]on’t go around telling people that the reason you are not doing well is because some rich guy is in a corporate jet or some oil company is making too much money,” he said. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) spokesperson defended the tax break without really addressing the issue on its merits, quipping to reporters, “Interesting that he keeps pointing to corporate planes and oil/gas.”

Conservative media outlets took up the same line, dismissing Obama’s call as an empty “metaphor” and the “latest class warfare catchphrase.” The Wall Street Journal wrote a gleefully condescending blog post yesterday called, “Note To Obama: $250,000-a-Year Earners Can’t Afford Jets,” in which it sought to educate Obama about taxes. The only problem? The author assumed Obama was referring to the Bush cuts — he was not and the esteemed paper was forced to run a correction at the bottom of the story

But not only are Rubio, Crapo and the rest defending a tax loophole for the most fortunate Americans, they’re completely misunderstanding it. As hard as it to believe, the private jet tax break is no “metaphor” or “code” for people making too much money — it is an actual loophole in the tax code that applies to private jets and not commercial ones. The provision, created in 1987, allows corporate jets to be depreciated over a five-year period rather than the seven-year period required for commercial ones. It has been defended and supported by Republicans since.

The more sophisticated conservative defense of special tax breaks private corporate jets, advanced by the Hertiage Foundation, among others, is that it was created by the stimulus package. As ThinkProgress’ Matt Yglesias explained, this myth too is bunk.

While closing the loophole wouldn’t raise enough money to solve the deficit problem by any means, it points to the absurdity of much of the spending in the tax code and would surely be a step in the right direction. The conservative response to ending it, meanwhile, speaks to the priorities of their tax cut “theology” — fewer taxes for the wealthy above all else.

Climate Progress

Bye-Polar Disorder: Judge Upholds ‘Threatened’ Listing for Polar Bear, Leaving It on Road to Extinction

http://www.treehugger.com/polar-bear-tongue.jpg

A federal judge today upheld the George W. Bush administration’s decision to list the polar bear as threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

The ruling is a blow to environmental groups that wanted the bear listed as endangered, thereby giving it more protections, and industry groups and others that don’t want it listed at all.

The original Bush decision meant listing the polar bear as “threatened” because of its melting polar sea ice habitat, but then doing nothing to actually protect that polar habitat from its primary threat, greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion.

As I wrote at the time, the Department of Interior suffers from a rare form of bipolar disorder called bye-polar disorder.  On the one hand, then DOI Secretary Kempthorne explicitly wanted “to allow continuation of vital energy production in Alaska,” while on the other hand the DOI noted:

  • The polar bears need sea ice for feeding.
  • The sea ice is being destroyed by human-caused emissions, faster than the models had predicted.
  • Thus, the polar bear is endangered.

Bye-polar disorder is apparently hard to diagnose.  You can read the 116-page ruling of U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan of the District of Columbia here, but he is no diagnostician:  Sullivan said the plaintiffs challenging the listing “have failed to demonstrate that the agency’s listing determination rises to the level of irrationality.”  Oh, it wasn’t irrational for the pro-oil Bushies, but for bears, it was just nuts.

Let’s be clear here:  “The survival of polar bears as a species is difficult to envisage under conditions of zero summer sea-ice cover,” concludes the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, by leading scientists from the eight Arctic nations, including the United States.

The climate models have left people with the impression that summer Arctic sea ice will survive past 2050, but reality is already worse than the IPCC’s worst-case scenario.  As I discussed in my post last month, “Arctic sea ice volume: The death spiral continues,” it is extremely likely the Arctic will be virtually ice free in the summer within about two decades, and it wouldn’t be surprising if it happened within one.

Read more

Yglesias

Making Cheaper Health Care Sound Good

Sarah Laskow says she’s willing to sign up for some much-cheaper not-quite-as-good health care pointing that doing so could help her afford more health care overall. Currently, what with regular trips to the eye doctor, an OB-GYN, and a dermatologist for melanoma checks she’s not inclined to spend money on seeing a GP. But if something like MelaFind made it possible for a general practitioner to quickly and cheaply do a pretty good melanoma check then three doctors’ visits worth of money would be getting her a larger actual quantity of health care services.

That seems like the right way to frame it for the public rather than my provocative claim about the virtues of “slightly worse but much cheaper” health care. What we’d really be looking at is specific instances of slightly worse but much cheaper health care in order to allow for the consumption of more health care services overall within a fixed budget constraint.

Still, my question about whether “we” really want cheaper health care speaks more to the collective choice aspect of things. Any time anything new and innovative comes along that can do something more efficiently than what comes before, some people will mobilize to try to block it. And the health care sector features a lot of safety regulations for obvious and perfectly sound reasons. But insofar as “this new thing isn’t really as good as what came before” counts as a valid objection, then the forward tide of efficiency can generally be stopped. Early movies didn’t have color or sound but that didn’t stop them from coming onto the market, improving, and eventually displacing live theater as the main form of dramatic entertainment. But that’s entertainment. We’re much more risk-averse with health care decisions for reasons that are, again, obvious and reasonable. Nobody dies from a bad movie. But these are the kind of things that have to happen for efficiencies to develop.

NEWS FLASH

Vegas Monetizing Same-Sex Marriage | Tourism officials in Las Vegas “are looking for a way to cash in on the growing gay wedding industry by making Las Vegas a honeymoon destination for same-sex couples.” The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority estimates that “83,000 room nights have been booked in Las Vegas by gay couples this year…resulting in $10.7 million in revenue given average rates.”

NEWS FLASH

Romney Campaign Says Economic Recovery Is Strong Enough To Boost Romney Fundraising | Today, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney released another video attacking the president on the economy, one that ends dramatically with the headline “Obama isn’t working.” Today also happens to be the last day in the second quarter for candidates to raise money.  In briefing reporters on the $15-20  million Romney has apparently raised, a senior Romney aide speaking to Kim Dixon of Reuters appeared to concede that contrary to Romney’s own attacks, Obama administration policies are indeed helping the economy recover:

A senior Romney adviser said the totals are in line with what they planned, but also cited the fledgling economic recovery, which could enhance fund-raising.

Security

What Can The U.S. Do About Syria?

Republican presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty doesn’t want you to think he’s a neoconservative. But neoconservatives themselves — not exactly known for diverse views — roundly approved of his foreign policy speech this week. One line of Pawlenty’s talk dovetailed quite nicely with neoconservative platitudes about regime change pretty much anywhere there is a regime that neoconservatives find unpalatable (in line with Pawlenty’s loose definitions of vital national security interests).

During the question and answer period after his speech, Pawlenty said the U.S. should “try to effectuate change within Syria.” Asked about what would happen after Syrian dictator Basher al Assad fell, Pawlenty responded: “People didn’t ask, ‘What comes after Hitler?’ Hitler was awful and needed to go.”

The statement is utterly and completely wrong — of course people were concerned about what came after Hitler — but it does comport with how noecons tend to think of things (consider how much thought was given to Iraq and Afghanistan post-U.S. invasion). Writing about Syria in the neocon flagship Commentary magazine, Jonathan Tobin zoomed out a little and hysterically declared:

Obama is still too obsessed with engaging with Islamists rather than confronting them to act decisively as did his predecessor.

But regarding Syria, there isn’t actually that much the United States can do. At a conference yesterday hosted by the New America Foundation and the Muslim Public Affairs Committee, Syrian-American human rights activists and U.S. experts agreed that the military option is not an option at all — so scrap euphemistic ‘decisive action’ — and that pushing regional allies international institutions is the best path forward.

Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, the former chief of staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell, bluntly stated as much:

For a number of reasons, not least of which that we would probably muck it up, the best thing the U.S. can do right now is be hands off. We should give as much diplomatic support, perhaps some financial support, realizing that it’s probably not going to do that much. To ask for any more adamant position by the U.S. is probably not helpful.

Military historian and analyst Mark Perry made a similar point in his remarks:

For those criticizing the Obama administration for not doing enough: We’ve got the 10th Mountain Division in Afghanistan, we’ve got the 101st Airborne on its fourth deployment. There’s nothing we can do.

Indeed, their assessments track closely with those of CAP analysts Matt Duss and Michael Werz, who wrote recently that the Obama administration should push Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan to lean harder on Assad. “It can only do so,” they write, “by joining the multilateral efforts to end the violence in Syria and by continuing to rebuild the U.S.-Turkish relationship that has been neglected for almost a decade.”

NEWS FLASH

Minnesota To Require Full Disclosure of Corporate Donations For State’s Anti-Gay Marriage Amendment | Minnesota’s Campaign Finance Board ruled today that both sides of the campaign surrounding the state’s 2012 constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage must disclose the sources of their corporate donations. The National Organization of Marriage (NOM) and the Minnesota Family Council (MFC) unsuccessfully argued against the outcome, alleging their donors could suffer intimidation at the hands of “homosexual activists”. LGBT groups see the decision as a victory for voters’ right to know who is funding these campaigns before they enter the ballot box. –Sarah Bufkin

Alyssa

Welcome Back, George Smiley

Do I really need to write a bunch of framing to explain why y’all should be excited about this Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy movie?

Seriously, this is the character actor nerd equivalent of those action movies that list a bunch of overmuscled stars by their last names: Oldman. Firth. Cumberbatch. Hardy. Hinds. Strong. And I’m also kind of compelled by the extent to which this looks like an old print of something from the seventies, as if it’s an actual historical document of another age in espionage. I like that firm visual definition between past and present, I think, though of course it might look like less of an artifact on the big screen.

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