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Yglesias

All About The Deal

Here’s the White House’s explanation of the budget deal. Long story short, a lot of spending cuts! The first tranche of cuts is balanced between defense and non-defense elements and will be implemented immediately. The second, larger tranche of cuts won’t happen until at least 2013 (the good news) and could take a variety of different specific forms depending on exactly what happens. In theory, taxes can be raised in lieu of cuts but in practice nothing about the composition of the committee makes that seem like a remotely plausible outcome.

The precise details are complicated, and at this hour of the night I find myself unable to write up a better summary than the one the White House has up on its website. l

Politics

BREAKING: Obama Announces Debt Deal

Moments ago, President Obama addressed the nation to announce that he had reached an agreement with Republicans to raise the debt ceiling, just two days from potential default. Obama did not discuss details of the deal, but it is likely very similar to the one unveiled by Congressional leaders this morning. He did say the deal was not “what I would have preferred,” but said it will “allow us to avoid default and end the crisis that Washington imposed on the rest America.” Most importantly, it will ensure we don’t have to repeat the crisis in coming months, Congressional leaders from both parties will present the plans tomorrow, urging lawmakers to support it. Watch it:

House Republicans signed on earlier in the night, after Senate Democrats did this afternoon. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) said in a conference call with reporters, “My hope would be to file it and have it on the floor as soon as possible.”

Even so, it appears Boehner is already pushing the goal posts. A bipartisan debt reduction committee established by the proposal is charged with looking for ways to reduce the deficit by either cutting spending or increasing revenue. But Boehner put out statement tonight titled, “Two Step Approach To Hold President Obama Accountable,” saying Republicans intend to bind the commitee with accounting rules to “effectively mak[e] it impossible for Joint Committee to increase taxes.” Obama said in his address that he would push for a “balanced approach” on the committee. Obama has suggested previously that if tax reform doesn’t happen through the committee, he will veto an extension of Bush tax cuts when they come up at the end of 2012.

Update

You can read the fact sheet on the deal released by the White House here.

Yglesias

Compromise Hypothetical

Suppose Barack Obama and Joe Biden walk into the negotiating room and simply offer to resign. Bam. Let’s all play Hail To The Chief for President John Boehner. What are his odds of re-election?

Yglesias

Clyburn Park

I never go to the theater, but I made an exception this afternoon to check out a matinee of Clyburn Park at the Woolly Mammoth Theater since I couldn’t resist award-winning drama about land-use regulations. It’s pretty awesome. And if you’re jonesing for some real estate content while you await the release of THE RENT IS TOO DAMN HIGH you should definitely check it out.

Politics

GOP Threatening To Derail Debt Deal Over Military Cuts, Even Though Many Conservatives Have Called For Them

While a tentative deal has been reached to raise the debt ceiling, a number of Republican lawmakers are threatening to blow up the compromise over a provision that would trigger modest cuts to the military if the bipartisan deficit reduction committee the bill creates cannot reach an agreement. Republicans are threatening a “sizable GOP defection in the House” while hawkish Sens. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) have expressed concern about the potential defense cuts.

The trigger is intended as a threat to encourage Congress to enact the commission’s requests, and thus contains elements that are distasteful to both parties. But the military cuts should be far more palatable to conservatives than the provision meant to cajole Democrats — Medicare cuts — are to progressives. While cutting social safety net programs like Medicare is anathema to fundamental progressive principles, reining in defense spending is appealing to many fiscal conservatives. In fact, dozens of leading Republican lawmakers, conservative leaders, and Tea Party activists have publicly called for defense cuts in recent months:

Sen. Johnny Isakson (GA) told a local news station that reducing the deficit “begins with the Department of Defense.”

Sen. Pat Toomey (PA) criticized Congress for voting for “programs the Pentagon doesn’t even want.” “We want to make sure men and women put in harm’s way have the resources they need. That doesn’t mean the entire defense budget has to be taken off the table.”

Sen. Rand Paul (KY) told PBS that cutting defense spending “has to be on the table.” He also tweaked Republicans for “never” saying “they’ll cut anything out of military. … There’s still waste in the military budget. You have to make it smaller.”

Sen. Tom Coburn (OK) wrote in the Washington Times: “Republicans should resist pressure to take all defense spending off the table. … Taking defense spending off the table is indefensible. We need to protect our nation, not the Pentagon’s sacred cows.”

Sen. Mark Kirk (IL) said that we need “across-the-board” spending cuts, including defense.

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) said on Fox News Sunday that he didn’t think “anything ought to be off-limits for the effort to reduce spending.” “I don’t think we ought to start out with the notion that a whole lot of areas in the budget are exempt from reducing spending, which is what we really need to do and do it quickly.”

Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) said everything, including defense cuts, “should be on the table.”

Sen. Bob Corker (TN) said on CNBC that defense cuts have to be “on the table” because there’s “a lot of waste there.”

Rep. John Campbell (CA) said the “military [must] keep ourselves safe, but know we don’t have unlimited resources. … The Defense Department should not be a jobs program.”

Tea Party Rep. Chris Gibson (NY), a former Army Colonol: “This deficit that we have threatens our very way of life, and everything needs to be on the table.”

23 Conservative Leaders, including Americans for Tax Reform president Grover Norquist, Americans For Prosperity president Tim Phillips, and FreedomWorks CEO Matt Kibbe, wrote in a letter to Congress that “Department of Defense spending, in particular, has been provided protected status that has isolated it from serious scrutiny and allowed the Pentagon to waste billions in taxpayer money.”

Former GOP House Leader Dick Armey: “A lot of people say if you cut defense, you’re demonstrating less than a full commitment to our nation’s security, and that’s baloney.”

Tea Party Patriots’ Mark Meckler: “I have yet to hear anyone say, ‘We can’t touch defense spending, or any other issue.’ … Any tea partier who says something else lacks integrity.”

Any cuts to the military would likely have almost zero impact on national security, as they would target the many wasteful, costly weapons programs, many of which are barely even used, like the F-22 fighter.

The military cuts in the trigger are one of the few concessions to Democrats in this deal, and small one at that, but some Republicans seem unwilling to give even that up.

Climate Progress

The GOP War Against Climate Adaptation

Some people naively believe we can get DC politicians to support adaptation funding if only we stop talking about climate science.  They call themselves “climate pragmatists.”  The true realists among us call them hopelessly naïve.

The fact is that if you reject science, if you think climate science in particular is some sort of liberal plot, then the last thing you would do is spend money “planning” or “adapting” for climate change.

The anti-science extremists who now run the House, of course, are not merely climate science deniers. They believe slashing all forms of government spending is more important than, say, voting to preserve the full faith and credit of the United States — even during the midst of the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression.

So other than faux pragmatists, the rest of us aren’t surprised in the least that the GOP-led House has been voting to gut climate adaptation efforts across the federal government — including even the most minimal planning efforts.  TP Green has a list:

Read more

Yglesias

Historical Wedding Costs

Kay Steiger reviews Rebecca Mead‘s One Perfect Day: The Selling of the American Wedding:

Oh boy, did I have so much to learn. As Rebecca Mead documents in her book, the American wedding industry has exploded in the last few decades. What was once a relatively simple affair (though when you adjust for inflation, weddings in the 1920s or ’30s still cost around $5,000) has become a new stage in absolute consumerism.

When looking at historical expenditures, I think it’s interesting to look at them not just in inflation-adjusted terms but in income-relative terms. After all, in the 1920s and 30s per capita GDP was much lower than it is today:

Something always worth saying is that if an economy grows, that necessarily means spending on something is increasing. This is especially true because some things (electronics, e.g.) tend to get cheaper. So when you hear about health care spending or wedding spending or whatnot exploding, or about how Americans live in giant houses one natural question to ask is what is it you think people should be spending money on instead. Smaller weddings, longer honeymoons? Smaller houses, fancier expensive dinners? Cheaper health care, more expensive suits?

Politics

White House And Republicans Reach Tentative Deal To Raise Debt Ceiling

Less than three days from potential default, the White House and Congressional Republicans reached a potential deal to raise the debt ceiling and lower the deficit late last night. Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said on CNN’s State of the Union today that both sides were “very close” to a deal that will cut $3 trillion over 10 years, saying negotiators have made “dramatic progress” over the weekend. Democrats appear less confident that the deal will hold, but still expressed optimism.

The deal is based on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-NV) proposal, but includes a “trigger” mechanism which would make deep across-the-board cuts if the bipartisan committee created by the bill to look for ways to reduce the deficit fails to produce a proposal that can pass Congress. The deal includes other provisions aimed at gaining GOP votes, the Washington Post’s Felicia Sonmez reports:

The process would involve a “resolution of disapproval” by Congress that would allow the debt ceiling to be further raised next year if one-third of either chamber agrees – an idea first proposed by McConnell in a “Plan B” he unveiled several weeks ago. The move would shift the political burden of raising the debt ceiling to the White House from congressional Republicans.

Also included in the nascent proposal would be a provision calling for a vote on a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution – an element that has become a rallying point for House conservatives. But one potential sticking point in any House vote is that the plan calls only for a vote on such an amendment, not the passage of one…

The proposal starts with a bill — Reid’s plan — that was itself an enormous concession to the GOP, intended to call their bluff on raising the debt ceiling, but goes several steps farther. It would force a second vote on the debt ceiling, though with a much easier threshold for passage, even though President Obama has insisted on raising the debt limit through the next election all at once. The supposed concession to Democrats in the trigger mechanism is that it would include defense cuts, which some Republicans oppose, but would also include Medicare cuts, which all Democrats strongly oppose. The deal is lopsided, as many Republicans, especially of the Tea Party wing, have agreed that Pentagon spending should be on the table for cuts all along. The details of the trigger are still in flux, however, and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said today that he’ll push for something that will be “equally tough on Democrats and Republicans.”

Moreover, the deal includes zero revenue increases and no call for comprehensive tax reform, and achieving these things through the new bipartisan deficit commission will be almost impossible as Republicans are sure to reject it. Still, White House economic adviser Gene Sperling said today on State of the Union that the White House “fine” with the idea that the bill will be “only spending cuts.” He added that Obama won’t seek new revenues before the 2012 election anyway, and will in fact be pushing for a payroll tax cut.

As ThinkProgress’ Matt Yglesias notes, the fallout from this deal may extend far beyond the plan itself:

[A]t this point the biggest damage is to the overall system of government. Obama has successfully transformed massive debt ceiling hostage taking from an act of breathtakingly irresponsible brinksmanship into a proven effective negotiating tactic. Suppose he gets re-elected in 2012. What’s he going to do when this issue recurs in 2013? Every time the president’s party has fewer than 60 votes in the Senate, we may face a recurrence of this crisis.

The emergence of a deal may, however, prevent a downgrade from the credit rating agencies.

Yglesias

Balanced Budget Game Theory

Promising to hold a congressional vote on a poorly designed version of a Balanced Budget Amendment strikes me as the kind of thing that could be a much worse idea than it appears at first glance. The issue is that the BBA is a classic instance of a measure that everyone in politics wants someone else to block. You can tell that everybody knows it’s a bad idea from the fact that throughout the entire 2001-2008 period the Republican Party managed to completely forget about it. But the explanation of what’s bad about it is wonky and non-intuitive and the BBA polls very well. If you force people to vote on it, they just might vote “yes.” That’s especially true since they can always tell themselves that it’s meaningless. Nothing happens unless 75% of the states ratify it.

But then the problem just re-instantiates at the state level. Why take a tough “no” vote on the BBA when it won’t be ratified by enough states to be enacted anyway? Then next thing you know, we’re two states away from being saddled with a Balanced Budget Amendment.

Climate Progress

Scotland Yard to Investigate Murdoch’s NewsCorp for Computer and Email Hacking. Duh!

News of the World executive obtained hacked e-mails

Scotland YardActually, that was a BBC headline — from March!

No, it doesn’t refer to Climategate, but you’ll be shocked, shocked to learn that the NY Times is reporting today:

Scotland Yard will expand its investigation of The News of the World and its parent company, police officials said Saturday, adding a new inquiry into possible instances of computer intrusion to the current accusations of phone hacking and payments to police officers.

The new investigation was opened after an examination of “a number of allegations regarding breach of privacy” received since the Metropolitan Police, also known as Scotland Yard, reopened inquiries in January into possible crimes by newspaper employees, a statement said.

I am one to say “I told you so” — it’s half the reason to have a blog, especially on climate, where the nation’s ongoing inaction all but guarantees that those of us warning of the most dire climatic consequences will be vindicated.

Two weeks ago I wrote, “News Corp and the Hacked Climategate Emails: Time for an Independent Investigation.”  Back then we knew that News Corp in the UK had done phone hacking, and that a News Crop division in this country apparently did computer and e-mail hacking.

Now, as the NY Times reports, Scotland Yard has reason to believe News Corp in the UK was involved in hacking computers and e-mails:

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