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Yglesias

Jobs And Transportation

Tanya Snyder wonders if it really makes sense to be touting the short-term employment impact of investing in transportation infrastructure. After all, the real benefit here is that over the long term better infrastructure leads to more growth and higher quality of life.

I think that’s right, but I do think the jobs point is relevant. After all, any time someone comes along with a proposal to build a train line or repair a bridge someone is going to be concerned that the project is wasteful. At this point, you have to ask yourself what, exactly, is it that we might be wasting. “Money” is often the answer you get, but while individual government agencies do have fixed budget constraints, the United States as a whole is at no risk of running out of dollars. The thing that might be wasteful about increased transportation infrastructure investments is real resources. Human labor, steel, concrete, building equipment. These are things that could be used on some government-funded pet project, or could be used on projects that the private market has deemed to be sound investments. But how much we worry about this ought to be in large part a function of how many idle resources we have. In October of 2000, the unemployment rate was 4 percent and the employment:population ratio was the highest it had ever been in American history. Under those circumstances, before you pull real resources out of the private sector you want to be very sure you’re doing something worthwhile. When it’s June 2003 and the unemployment rate is 6.2 percent you’re looking at a very different situation. And when it’s May 2011 and the unemployment rate has been consistently over 9 percent for two years then you’re looking at a very different situation. The United States is not running short on construction workers. Useful projects are, as always, better than useless ones but with this quantity of idle real resources the bar something needs to cross to be worth doing is extremely low.

NEWS FLASH

DOD Accounted for More Than 80 Percent of Total U.S. Government Energy Consumption In 2009 | According to the 2009 data, the latest available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Department of Defense accounted for more than 80 percent of U.S. government energy consumption. That year, the Pentagon ate up 880.3 trillion Btu’s of the 1095.7 trillion total Btu’s consumed by the government. As a percent of total energy consumption, the number is consistent with data from 2003 and 2008.

Yglesias

Again: What’s The Case For Sameness?

I’m once again struck by the extent to which legal regimes embed the notion that sameness, as such, is a value worth preserving. Here’s Kelly Matlock reporting on a proposed development that would replace a vacant lot that’s inside a historic district:

In her testimony to the HPRB yesterday, Green stated, “The Takoma Central District Plan specifically addresses height. It states that ‘new commercial and residential buildings should be no more than 2-4 stories in height to match existing residential scale’ and to preserve Takoma’s ‘small/town village character’.”

She continued by saying that, “The Takoma Overlay District permits heights of up to 55 feet, but as I also understand it, you have the ability to reduce the height, as needed, on case-by-case basis.”

Note, again, that we’re not talking about knocking down a historic structure and replacing it with a new one. We’re talking about replacing a vacant lot. Yes, it’s a vacant lot in a historic district. But it’s a vacant lot. And we’re being urged by members of the community to restrict the size of the new development—a move that has citywide implications for housing affordability, the tax base, etc.—in order “to match existing residential scale.” Obviously, though, no neighborhood as it currently exists could have been built if not for the fact that at some point in the past new structures weren’t erected that failed to match what existed previously. And it’s not at all clear to me why we would think it’s the case that, as a rule, conformity is an important aesthetic value that needs to be balanced against other economic and environmental considerations. If someone was objecting to a proposed new building on the grounds that it’s ugly well then that would make perfect sense. Nobody wants to see something they think is ugly go up across the street. But the problem with the new building is just that it’s not the same as other buildings nearby? Who cares?

Yglesias

Movies I’ve Seen This Weekend

— Transformers 3: Clearly the best of the Transformers films, but if invading alien robots are using Chicago as a base from which to destroy the entire planet I think the appropriate response is going to be a nuclear strike on Chicago. That said, I was impressed by Michael Bay’s vision of Washington, DC as a city full of skyscrapers and tall buildings with sufficient housing supply that a young couple can afford an awesome duplex loft. Well done.

Midnight in Paris: Maybe it’s just me, but I found myself persistently irritated by the fact that nobody has a cell phone. Maybe that’s because they’re all Verizon customers or have turned their international data roaming off, but even so for years now when I’ve traveled abroad there’s frequent discussion from the suddenly device-less about how disconcerting this is. On the other hand, it’s a movie about nostalgia so….

Yglesias

CEO Pay Rose 23 Percent Last Year

The NYT has a bunch of interesting charts on this. But suffice it to say that high-level managers appear to have become much more skilled at directed value into their own pockets:

What I always wish I could see more of were direct international comparisons. Not only do high-paid oil and gas CEOs all get paid roughly similar amounts of money despite drastically different performances, but running a large American oil company is much more lucrative than running the giant French oil company. Anglophone firms just pay CEOs much more than continental European firms or Japanese firms. Meanwhile, though pretty much all firms are happy to discover and apply some new methods to hold down labor costs you rarely if ever see a firm bragging about its success in reducing executive compensation.

Security

Joe Lieberman Warns: If Taliban Regains Power ‘We’ll Be Attacked Again’

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) wastes few opportunities to criticize the White House’s troop drawdown timetable in Afghanistan, but his latest criticism of the Obama administration falls back on conjuring up an implausible future terrorist attack conducted from within Afghanistan.

Lieberman told Fox News Sunday:

We’re [in Afghanistan] because we were attacked from here on 9/11. If we don’t succeed here and the Taliban comes back into power we’ll be attacked again. And there could be no greater threat to our security and our freedom, the freedom we celebrate on July 4th.

Watch the video:

Lieberman’s conflation of the Taliban and Al Qaeda and his dire warnings about a resurgent terrorist threat from within Afghanistan’s borders are in direct contradiction with the White House’s position that Al Qaeda in Afghanistan is no longer a threat to the U.S. A senior administration official told Business Insider:

There is no indication at all that there is any effort within Afghanistan to use Afghanistan as a launching pad to carry out attacks outside of Afghan borders.

And CIA Director Leon Panetta told ABC News:

I think the estimate on the number of Al Qaeda [in Afghanistan] is actually relatively small. At most, we’re looking at 50 to 100, maybe less. It’s in that vicinity. There’s no question that the main location of Al Qaeda is in the tribal areas of Pakistan.

While Lieberman is quick to throw around the threat of a terrorist attack as grounds for criticizing the president’s troop drawdown timetable, consistent reports about the diminishing presence of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan undermine his sensationalist warnings.

 

Climate Progress

Global Warming Boosts Worst Wildfires ‘Since the Last Ice Age’, Extreme Drought Imperils July 4 Fireworks

http://www.csmonitor.com/var/ezflow_site/storage/images/media/images/0629-losalamos-newmexico/10390750-1-eng-US/0629-losalamos-newmexico_full_600.jpg

Flames from the Las Conchas fire burn in Los Alamos, NM.  AP Photo

Climate change is creating the ideal conditions for wildfires — drought and heat.  And while only a secondary effect, it is ruining July 4 celebrations around the country, since in many places the risk posed by fireworks is simply too great.

Grant Meyer, a University of New Mexico geologist who studies “what relationships exist between fire, climate and erosion over Holocene timescales” tells the Christian Science Monitor that while severe wildfires have always occurred:

recent experience down here suggests that what we’re looking at in the last few decades is at least as severe and maybe more so than anything we’ve seen since the last Ice Age,” he adds.

A build-up of fuels from forestry practices that emphasized fire suppression is partly responsible, he says.

But part of it as well – and the data are very good on this – it’s climatic warming” as human industrial activity and land-use changes have pumped increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, he says.

[For more on the relative contribution of forest management practices and climate change to the recent soaring wildfire trend, see Wildfires in a Globally-Warmed World.]

A long-term average decline in annual snow pack, which provides the bulk of the region’s water, along with rising average temperatures have lengthened the fire season and dried out the fuel.

New Mexico, along with much of Texas (which has had a record fire season), and the southeastern US is in the throes of extreme to exceptional drought conditions

http://www.philebrity.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/no_fireworks.jpgJerome McDonald of the Southwest Area Incident Management Team said, “As firefighters we’re seeing extreme fire behavior and the kind of growth we haven’t seen in our careers.”  Los Alamos fire chief Donald Tucker, “We have seen fire behavior we’ve never seen down here, and it’s really aggressive.”

In past years, Independence Day fireworks fizzled out for many thanks to ever worsening droughts.  Now, as TP Green’s Brad Johnson reports, that is happening this year around the country:

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Security

Sen. Joe Lieberman Predicts ‘Day Of Reckoning’ For Iran

On Fox News Sunday, two of the Senate’s leading Iran hawks pressed the administration to do more on Iran and issued thinly-veiled threats to the Islamic Republic.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), who has advocated for “retir(ing) our ambiguous mantra about all options remaining on the table” for Iran and made sure then-Defense Secretary nominee Leon Panetta has a plan for attacking, warned the Islamic Republic that a “day of reckoning” was ahead:

I would say that a day of reckoning is coming for this extremist regime in Iran, when a majority of Iranians who really yearn for freedom can see this dream come true. And I hope we do everything we can to make this happen as soon as possible.

The platitudes about helping freedom-seeking Iranians would mean a lot more if actual Iranian human rights and democracy advocates agreed with Lieberman. Instead, they say that an attack would be disastrous for them and that, indeed, the U.S.’s shifting away from belligerent rhetoric helped open up a political space in Iran.

Lieberman’s close ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also didn’t seem to get some regional dynamics in the Iran-Iraq relationship. When asked about Iran’s alleged support for the Taliban, Graham said:

I think people need to understand why Iran is doing this. The biggest nightmare for the Ayaltollahs in Iran is democracies on their borders in Iraq and Afghanistan. …Their biggest nightmare is that the Arab spring is successful. I hope the president will condemn this and put Iran on warning that you’re not going to get away with this.

Watch the video of Graham and Lieberman on Fox News Sunday:

Graham’s characterization of Iran’s involvement in Iraq only captures a small bit of the picture: There may be involvement with Shia militas, but most of Iran’s political clout in Iraq comes from its contacts with the Shia majority that was empowered with the fall of Saddam Hussein. Take, for example, Ahmad Chalabi, the exiled politician who, after cozying up to Washington hawks like Lieberman and Graham, was paid millions of dollars by the State Department and the C.I.A. to provide the faulty intelligence that was used to sell the war in America. Chalabi was later accused by U.S. forces of spying for Iran.

Again in Graham’s case, turning to actual Iranian human rights advocates is instructive. Late last year, Iranian human rights lawyer and now-exiled dissident Shirin Ebadi told CAP’s Matt Duss that the Iraq War was a great example of why not to attack Iran. Noting that Iran’s “Green movement is the Iranian peoples’ movement” and that change “must come from inside Iran,” Ebadi added:

You paid money, Iraqis died, and Iran has benefited. Saddam was Iran’s enemy that was removed by the U.S., (and Iran’s power and influence has been increased as a result).

Are Chalabi-backers like Lieberman and people with shaky understandings of regional dynamics like Graham really the ones whose advice the president ought to take on what to do about Iran?

Yglesias

Poverty And Indigenous Cultural Preservation In Oaxaca

Mexico is a somewhat above-average country in terms of per capita GDP, but that average figure masks huge disparities. When I went to southern Mexico last December it was clear that outside of the central city of Oaxaca you were looking at a very poor area dominated by low-productivity agricultural activities and traditional crafts. But as an interesting Guardian piece observes, there’s a tension between aspirations for development and aspirations for cultural integrity and preservation:

Elena Gonzales folds yarn between her fingers. Her tapestry is woven in an intricate pattern of ochre and indigo, with fibre that has been dyed using moss and bark, fruit and flowers. Here in the hills of Oaxaca, in southern Mexico, indigenous Zapotec communities have been weaving rugs for more than two thousand years. Elena spins the loom and the centuries fall away.

Like many Zapotec children growing up in the 1980s, Elena did not attend school. Faced with a primary curriculum that took no account of Zapotec language or culture, her parents decided that she should be educated by her community. She was taught to weave by her grandmother. Self-sufficiency is the historic norm in Oaxaca, but in recent decades as rural life has become increasingly entretejidos – interwoven – with the modern market economy, Zapotec children who have not gone to school are finding themselves on the wrong side of an urban-rural education divide that excludes them from employment and contributes to deepening poverty.

Obviously, the dilemma here is real. Not only does formal education improve one’s earning potential, so does better transportation and communications connections to the outside world. And Spanish-language competence has a higher market value than Zapotec-language competence. So insofar as you put an overwhelming premium on cultural preservation, the tendency will be for that agenda to entrench poverty. After all, the authentic cultural tradition of indigenous peoples in southern Mexico involves being poor. That said, we do see in Denmark, the Netherlands, Flanders, Sweden, etc. that it’s actually quite possible for a country to become very much a part of the global economy while still retain a distinct language community.

[UPDATE]: Apologies, I neglected a hat tip to Erik Loomis who’s decided to “disagree” with me in a very nasty way despite the fact that it’s not clear what we’re supposed to be disagreeing about here.

Climate Progress

Misuse of Food and Climate Data at Forbes

Peter Gleick, water and climate scientist, in a HuffPost repost.  Gleick is a member of the National Academy of Sciences.

Forbes, which regularly publishes biased, misleading, and distorted opinion pieces on climate issues, has just published a remarkable one by Patrick Michaels. Michaels is well known for his regular misleading statements about climate. And while his statements are mostly worth ignoring, this one contains a particularly remarkable combination of errors and falsehoods. He accuses a variety of other people (including Justin Gillis of the New York Times) of misrepresenting data on food production and climate risks while simultaneously doing exactly that.

In this case, his misstatements are easily checked (though not, apparently, by Forbes fact-checkers) by actually looking up the real data on world food production. Here are Michaels’ most grossly misleading or simply false statements:

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