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BREAKING: Michele Bachmann Wins Ames Straw Poll | Rep. Michele Bachmann won today’s Ames, Iowa Republican Straw Poll today with 4,823 votes — edging Rep. Ron Paul by just under 200 votes.  Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty took third place with 2,293 votes.  Rounding out the order were former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (1657 votes), Herman Cain (1456 votes), Texas Governor Rick Perry (718 votes), former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (567 votes), former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (385 votes), former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman (69 votes), and Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (35 votes).  Along with Perry, who just announced his presidential campaign today, Huntsman and Romney had not made an effort to formally contest the Ames Straw Poll.  Finally, the Iowa State Fair Butter Cow reportedly received three write-in votes.

Yglesias

Maternity Leave

Obviously Megyn Kelly was right the second time and maternity leave is an excellent idea. For many of the same reasons that the government subsidizes children’s education, it also makes sense to subsidize basic parenting functions.

Ideally, we ought to have nationwide paid parental leave financed out of tax dollars so as to not create an implicit tax on employing people who have kids. In practice, anti-tax fervor in the United States makes it more plausible that we’ll move to a mandatory paid leave system without taxpayer finance that’s then going to need a lot of loopholes and exemptions.

Yglesias

The Texas Population Growth Miracle

The Rick Perry elevator pitch is that Texas has led the nation in aggregate job growth, which is true. But it’s unemployment performance has been just average. Which is to say that the Texas “jobs miracle” is really a Texas population growth miracle. This is a real enough phenomenon, lots of people have been moving to Texas from both Mexico and the non-Texas parts of the United States of America.

The question to answer about this is what Perry administration initiatives are we supposed to attribute this to. Texas’ high growth rate relative to the rest of the country is a longstanding phenomenon. Indeed, the gap was much larger in the 1980s. It appears to be related to Texas’ low pre-existing population density, natural resource wealth, proximity to Mexico, and warm weather combined by the high price of housing on the coasts. There’s an interesting story here to be told here, but it’s not super clear what the implications are for national policy. Does Perry plan on drastically increasing the volume of legal immigration to the United States in order to replicate the Texas population boom?

Politics

VIDEO: Do Iowans Agree With Mitt Romney That Corporations Are People?

ThinkProgress filed this report from the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, IA

At the Iowa State Fair Wednesday, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) took to the presidential soapbox and told Iowa voters that “corporations are people.” The next day, Romney doubled-down on his gaffe at a campaign stop in New Hampshire. Other prominent Republicans also professed their agreement that corporations are people, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

ThinkProgress asked a number of state fair attendees if they agreed with Romney. Watch their responses here:

Yglesias

Rioting Is A Micro-Phenomenon

Authoritarian regimes may be different, but my read of the evidence—clearly implied by Ed Glaeser’s survey—is that rioting in democracies is overwhelmingly a micro-phenomenon where better response by authorities on the ground right at the beginning could (and usually does) prevent it without any meaningful change in broad social conditions. I think the key evidence for this is the sporadic occurrence of sports-related riots. Riots often seem to originate out of protest marches, which makes the rioting seem political. But the fact that riots also often originate in sports fans’ response to game outcomes should make us think that the real issue here is the existence of a crowd of people in the streets.

Combine the crowd with some bad apples and an inadequate initial response, and you get a riot.

Yglesias

The Importance Of A Comparative Perspective

Matt Stoller hypothesized last night that “If there are historians in 100 years, Clinton-Bush-Obama will be considered some of the worst leaders in American history.” Taking that to be less a historiographical hypothesis (realistically, history’s judgment on Obama has a lot to do with whether he gets re-elected) than a personal judgment, I asked Stoller who his top ten favorites presidents are. I think this is an important question since I think it’s hard to assess the claim that Barack Obama is a “good” or “bad” president unless we ask “compared to what?’

In response, Stoller gave me seven rather than ten “FDR, Lincoln, Grant, Washington, T. Roosevelt, Truman, LBJ.”

Maybe that’s a good list. Maybe it’s a bad one. The difficulty of even producing a top ten list highlights, I think, the fact that from a real left perspective there aren’t a ton of super-admirable presidents in American history. Which is fine. But I think it does put claims about the merits (or lack thereof) of the Obama administration in the appropriate context. The left-wing critics of Obama who I meet tend not to be super-enthusiastic about the records of the Bush, Clinton, Bush, Reagan, Carter, Ford, or Nixon administrations either. Indeed, when pressed Obama’s critics from the left can often be pushed to concede that he’s the greatest progressive success story in the White House in four decades. That’s no small thing.

My view is that the retroactive assessment of a character like LBJ speaks volumes to these comparative issues. The American left was not, at the time, exactly enthusiastic about the Johnson administration. After all, if Barack Obama tried to boost defense spending to nearly 10 percent of GDP and scale back entitlements to their LBJ-era levels, he’d be castigated as an extreme traitor. Even on the issues Johnson was good on, he never, for example, publicly opposed miscegenation laws. FDR’s entire presidency was founded on a corrupt bargain with white supremacists, and in 1937 he orchestrated a disastrous move to fiscal and monetary contraction that cost huge numbers of people their jobs for no real reason.

Sometimes when I bring these things up, people then create a construct whereby I’m saying nobody should criticize the president. That’s silly. During his administration, the left criticized Johnson’s conduct of the Vietnam war and for good reason. Activists pushed FDR on racial justice very consistently and with frustratingly little success and for good reason. But this is the nature of the interplay between activists and presidents, it’s not a personalized betrayal that just happens to recur every single time.

Economy

Grassley Calls S&P Downgrade A ‘Wake-Up Call’ To ‘Reduce Deficit Spending,’ Then Admits He Hasn’t Read The Report

ThinkProgress filed this report from the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, IA.

After one of the three credit ratings agencies, S&P, downgraded the United States’ creditworthiness from AAA to AA+ in large part because of extreme GOP intransigence on raising revenue, Republicans were quick to try to deflect blame onto the Democrats. GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney singled out the White House, saying “Standard & Poor’s rating downgrade is a deeply troubling indicator of our country’s decline under President Obama.”

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) piled on the following day, calling S&P’s move a “wake-up call for Congress and the President to take meaningful action to reduce deficit spending and the resulting debt.”

ThinkProgress spoke with Grassley at the Iowa State Fair on Thursday to get his further thoughts on S&P’s criticism of Republican stubbornness. However, before we were able to ask the Iowa senator about S&P’s recommendations regarding our nation’s fiscal dilemma, Grassley made a startling revelation: he has not even read the report.

KEYES: Did you get a chance to read the S&P report?

GRASSLEY: It’s a wakeup call…

KEYES: Did you read the report they released on it?

GRASSLEY: No, I did not, because it came out as I was leaving. I was out here, you know, so I don’t have a copy of the report.

The report is five pages long. It was released a full week ago. And despite Grassley’s assertion that he was “out here [in Iowa] so I don’t have a copy of the report,” it’s available free on the Internet for anyone to read, Iowans included.

Still, Grassley didn’t let the fact that he hadn’t read the report stop him from making broad generalizations about what our plan of action needs to be going forward.

With the revelation that Grassley, the Ranking Member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, didn’t even read S&P’s short report explaining why it decided to downgrade the United States’ creditworthiness before commenting on it, one has to ask: how many other members of Congress haven’t read the report?

Yglesias

Against Drink Judging

I of course have my preferences in beverage, but there’s something odd about the moralism of Aminatou Sow and Phoebe Connelly list of drinks that you should be ashamed to order in public. Nobody should be ashamed to order drinks they enjoy in public. Many people could perhaps benefit from trying some new things, but the idea that people should be feeling shame over their tastes strikes me as wrongheaded.

I also note that the list in part seems to simply reflect a prejudice against “girlie” (i.e. sweet) cocktails. One of the greatest tricks the devil ever pulled was to persuade the world that there’s something inherently superior about the bitter flavors that men (on average) tend to prefer. This is some real science according to real scientist Marcia Pelchat. Preferences along the sweet/bitter spectrum are a biological construct, one where women tend to be positioned more in favor of sweetness and men more in favor of bitterness. Which is all fine. But a lot of people then go around and socially privilege the bitter flavor, which is not fine.

Climate Progress

What’s the Best Strategy for Dealing with Deniers?

David Roberts, in a Grist cross-post.

The other day, I wrote about a study that attempted to explain why conservative white men (CWM) are so loathe to accept the threat of climate change. It has to do with system justification and identity-protective cognition. Go read it!

The question remains: What should we do about it? The denialism or indifference of CWM toward climate is a huge barrier to getting anything done. In this post, I’m going to argue that the typical strategies are doomed to failure. It may be that the simplest, least clever strategy — kick their [metaphorical] asses — is still the way to go.

Read more

Economy

Perry Doesn’t ‘Buy Into The Premise’ That Rescuing America’s Auto Companies Saved Jobs

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) is set to jump into the presidential race today, bringing with him his beliefs that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are unconstitutionalPonzi schemes.” While Perry likes to brag about Texas’ economic strength, his story is largely a mirage.

One of Perry’s favorite topics is Texas’ job creation, even though, between 2008 and 2010, jobs actually grew at a faster pace in Massachusetts than in Texas, and “Texas has done worse than the rest of the country since the peak of national unemployment in October 2009.” In an interview with The Daily Beast’s Andrew Romano, Perry actually showed callous disregard for American workers, saying that he doesn’t believe that any jobs were saved by the government’s rescue of the American auto industry:

Q: But the counterargument is that if GM collapsed, there would have been tons of jobs lost—and now it’s profitable again. Without TARP, the banking system would’ve imploded—and now the money’s been paid back.

A: I don’t necessarily buy into the premise that somehow or another those measures saved these jobs. There are companies that get restructured on a regular basis and the workers don’t lose their jobs. They get new management, they put a pay-out plan in place and we go on about our business rather than getting these huge amounts of debt piled on future generations.

According to the Center for Automotive Research, “if the government had not invested in the automotive industry, up to 80,000 automotive jobs would have been lost…Once Chrysler and GM emerged from their ‘orderly’ bankruptcies, the growth of automotive sector employment has been strong, with 52,900 workers added since July 2009. Had GM and Chrysler not successfully emerged, those jobs would have been permanently lost.” The auto companies also support hundreds of thousands of jobs at manufacturers and suppliers. There’s no telling how many of those jobs would have been lost if GM and Chrysler had gone under.

Of course, Perry doesn’t seem to believe that government jobs (including his own) exist at all, so maybe he thinks that auto workers are a figment of the imagination as well.

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