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Climate Progress

Gov. Christie on Hurricane Irene: “From a Flooding Perspective, This Could Be a 100-Year Event.”

Masters:  “Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 – 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk.”

This morning meteorologist and former hurricane hunter Dr. Jeff Masters posted this figure, “The height above ground that a mid-strength Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds would push a storm surge in a worst-case scenario in New York City”:

My brother lost his Pass Christian, Mississippi home in Katrina’s “worst-case scenario” storm surge 6 years ago this week –  so as Masters wrote this afternoon, “Take this storm seriously!

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s quote — “From a Flooding Perspective, This Could Be a 100-Year Event”– was from tonight’s NBC Evening News.  As Craig Fugate, who heads the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, said last December, “The term ’100-year event’ really lost its meaning this year.”

Masters writes that in addition to the storm surge, we have the deluge:

Irene likely to bring destructive fresh water flooding
In this morning’s post, I highlighted the threat from storm surge flooding, but flash flooding and river flooding from Irene’s torrential rains are also a huge threat. The hurricane is expected to bring rains in excess of 12″ to 100-mile swath from Eastern North Carolina northwards along the coast, through New York City. The danger of fresh water flooding is greatest in northern New Jersey, Southeast Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York, where the soils are saturated from heavy August rains that were among the heaviest on record.  At Philadelphia, rainfall so far this August has been 13 inches, not far from the record for rainiest month of all-time, the 15.82″ that fell in August 1867. This record will almost certainly be broken when Irene’s rains arrive. In general, the heaviest rains will fall along the west side of the hurricane’s track, and the greatest wind damage will occur on the east side

Here is the rainfall map:

Read more

Politics

MN Republicans Literally Auctioning Off GOP Congressmen And State Lawmakers To Highest Bidder

Bidding opportunity to meet with Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-MN)

A Republican committee in Minnesota has been caught creating an eBay-style auction site to sell access with politicians, including top lawmakers like Rep. John Kline (R-MN) and Rep. Erik Paulsen (R-MN), as well as State House Speaker Kurt Zellers (R-MN). With bidding starting at $250, the committee offered opportunities to “get up close and personal” with each lawmaker. The announcement for the auction was reportedly sent to area lobbyists.

Yesterday, the progressive group Common Cause called out the Carver County Republican Party, the committee sponsoring the fundraising effort, for crossing the “line on what is acceptable behavior for some of the most powerful members of the Minnesota legislature and U.S. Congress.” The GOP committee quickly deleted its website, but not before Common Cause took a screenshot:

Screenshot of MN GOP website auctioning off access to lawmakers

“It’s time we take the ‘for sale’ sign off our government, so that it works for working and middle class Minnesotans,” said Mike Dean, Common Cause’s Minnesota director.

Climate Progress

Colorado Residents Rally Against Big Oil Subsidies In The Face of Massive Cuts to Medicare

By Jessica Goad, Manager of Research and Outreach, Public Lands Project, Center for American Progress.

The Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity is bringing its “Running on Empty” tour to Colorado this week, to discuss the “perils of the government regulating the oil industry.”  In addition to its pro-polluter message, another of Koch Industries’ front groups has been at the helm of attacking Medicare.  So, at yesterday’s rallies across the state, concerned Coloradans pushed back using a moving billboard to ask, “Big Oil Gets Tax Breaks, Grandma Gets Medicare Cuts?”

Against the backdrop of that billboard, Dan Gould, Chair of the Boulder County Democratic Party, summed up the message of the protestors, saying “it is not the case” that ordinary Americans want what Americans for Prosperity is advocating:

It’s amazing to me that they have been able to dupe enough Americans into believing that the oil companies somehow need to have even more subsidies than they do now at the expense of at the expense of ordinary citizens, at the expense of “Grandma” as this sign says.  Grandma gets Medicare cuts, while oil gets tax cuts.  That doesn’t make sense to me.  And the thing that’s important is, these rallies are really just an extension of the Koch brothers’ lobbying efforts in Washington.  They’re trying to make it look like ordinary Americans want to have high profits for oil companies at the expense of the rest of the American public.  And that is not the case, it is clearly the case that the American people want to have fair taxation and not tax breaks for large corporations and for oil companies.

Watch it:

 

Protestors also called on the conservatives to help end the $4 billion in taxpayer subsidies that oil companies will get just this year, even though the Big 5 oil companies have already made $67 billion in 2011.  Jeff Crank, head of the Colorado chapter of Americans for Prosperity, responded by telling the crowd that he too “couldn’t be more against subsidies to Big Oil companies.”  He was not the only one from Americans for Prosperity to voice this opinion:  Tracy Henke, the group’s national executive vice president, told the Longmont Times-Call that Americans for Prosperity does not support these corporate subsidies.  But as the debt “super committee” begins its search for new forms of revenue, AFP has ignored this wasteful spending in its events this summer and instead completely focused on blaming the Obama Administration, calling for more places to be open to drilling and decrying regulation of any kind.

The Colorado activists speaking out against handouts to Big Oil at these and other Americans for Prosperity events across the country are part of a growing trend of citizens demanding that the group pay attention to subsidies and budget cuts, rather than focusing on the “absurd and deceptive message” about how more drilling will decrease gas prices, as one ProgressNow activist put it.

A poll sponsored by the Checks and Balances project released this week found that 79% of Coloradans favor reduced speculation and manipulation of markets in order to lower gas prices.  Coloradans overwhelmingly support this crackdown, and 77% believe that fuel efficiency and reduced oil consumption will lower prices.

Relatedly, the number of rigs in Colorado has been steadily climbing since 2009, even though the industry is producing on only 32% of the federal acres that it has leased there.

Economy

Challenged At Town Hall, Romney Misleads Voters On Social Security Reform

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) has ramped up his campaign efforts in August, appearing at the Iowa State Fair and at town hall events across New Hampshire. But in his emergence from what Politico dubbed the “Mittness Protection Program,” Romney has encountered voters who aren’t thrilled about some of his policy prescriptions, including his potential support for reforming Social Security by raising the retirement age or changing the way benefits are calculated.

Romney was challenged on Social Security by fair-goers in Iowa and again in New Hampshire last week. Last night, he ran into yet another voter concerned about the program’s long-term viability. But in an effort to explain his opposition to raising the payroll tax cap and his potential support for other proposals, Romney played loose with the facts:

ROMNEY: How about the 20-year-olds? How about those under 55? And in that case the answer is, let’s talk about it. We have one of three ways we can go, mathematically. One, we can raise taxes on people that are under 55. Number two, and by the way, if we don’t change the programs at all, if we leave them exactly as they are, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, for those that are 20, 30, and 40, their payroll tax will have to go up. Do you know what the payroll tax is now? What is it? It’s 15.3 percent. (Interrupted) Let me finish. So the tax is 15.3 percent today. If we don’t change the programs at all, ultimately it will have to rise to 44 percent. I’m not willing to raise the tax on the American young people to that level.

Watch it:

Romney’s tax facts, put simply, are wrong. Individual incomes are only subject to the 15.3 percent tax if a worker is self-employed, otherwise the rate is half that, since employers pay half of the tax. The 15.3 percent number, meanwhile, is used to pay for Medicare Part A, Social Security, and the hospital fund. The actual rate that finances Social Security is 12.4 percent — 6.2 percent each from individuals and employers — and according to the Social Security Administration, raising that rate by 2 percent (one percent each for individuals and employers) would guarantee the program’s solvency for 75 years.

Romney has repeatedly cited the 44 percent payroll tax figure, but according to the report he is using, that rate would not take effect for more than 60 years — in 2075. Even then, the bulk of payroll tax increase would go to finance Medicare, not Social Security, the program Romney was asked about directly (despite Romney’s claim, Medicaid is not paid for by payroll tax revenues).

Though Romney’s stance may fit his and the Republicans’ tax-averse nature, it ignores the easiest way to strengthen Social Security for the foreseeable future. As another Granite Stater brought to Romney’s attention at a town hall last week, raising or eliminating the payroll tax cap would keep Social Security solvent for at least another 75 years, without cutting benefits for current or future retirees. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), in fact, announced today that he will introduce legislation to lift the tax cap when the Senate reconvenes in September.

Yglesias

Nomination Oversights May Be Obama’s Biggest Sin

Ezra Klein things a FHFA-driven mass mortgage refinancing scheme is unlikely because FHFA Acting Director Edward DeMarco seems skeptical and back when Obama tried to replace DeMarco with a permanent director “Senate Republicans blocked the Obama administration’s nominee, Joe Smith, after he expressed some support for using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to heal the housing market.”

What’s striking if you follow the link is that Obama didn’t even send Smith’s name to the Senate until November 12, 2010—basically two years after the election. The fact that the FHFA Director, though not the most important person in the universe, had an important role to play in managing the economic crisis seems to me to have been perfectly foreseeable. And it also seems to me to be overwhelmingly likely that had a nomination been made in a timely manner, confirmation by the 111th Senate would have been possible. Like the failure to make timely nominations to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors this isn’t something that people saw as a big deal at the time, but that in retrospect has enormous consequences.

Alyssa

‘Deadwood’ Late Pass: ‘Jewel’s Boot Is Made for Walking’ and ‘Sold Under Sin’

I’m impressed that in this first season of Deadwood, the show’s managed to dedicate an emotionally significant moment or storyline to every character we’ve seen on-screen. In particular, I appreciated the way these last two episodes made Jewel a person, rather than a vehicle for the expression of Trixie’s nurturing nature or Al’s private inner goodness.

There are an amazing number of shots of the muck that constitutes Deadwood’s streets in this first season. People have it splashed on their nice dresses, are beaten to the point of brain damage in it, and jump into it after being threatened with their lives. Jewel may be the only person to fall in it, calmly get up, and keep going. There’s a serenity to her. “I came here on my own Doc,” she tells the physician, who is reluctant to listen to her ideas for a corrective brace. “I got something I want to show you.” “That boy was goddamn able-bodied before he got his leg shot-up,” Doc warns her, but he is excited in spite of himself, even prying the broom out of her fingers when the brace arrives as she jokes “You’ll have to remove it from my clutches.” The season ends with the two of them dancing, Jewel telling the Doc to think of himself as graceful as a woodland creature.

And that isn’t the only role Doc plays in the conclusion of this stage in Deadwood’s development. There’s something poignant about the divine sanctification of one Civil War veteran’s mercy killing in answer to another veteran’s prayers. Jewel’s book breaks something in the doctor as the reverend enters the final stage of his illness, leaving him crying in his office “What conceivable godly use is this protracted suffering to you? What conceivable use was the screaming of those men? Did you need to hear them to know your omnipotence?” Al, for once, is the answer to someone’s prayers.

And even as Al commits another murder in his own interest, he also finally establishes legitimate law in Deadwood. After a long battle, Seth Bullock succumbs to the role of sheriff, in part because of his own impatience with the man who does take the role, and in part because he’s also succumbed to Alma’s charms. The latter event takes place upon the arrival of Alma’s scum-like father in town. The man starts out by telling his daughter “I always thought it was going to end like this, button. A rooming house in a mining camp in Indian territory, you caring for a Norwegian foundling and operating a bonanza gold claim.” Then, he tries to pimp her out to Seth even though he’s married, telling him “I’ve learned that no matter what people say or how civil they may seem, their passions rule.” And finally, he reveals to Alma that he’s racked up massive debts on the credit that her marriage opened up to him, threatening her with perpetual domination. Seth responds by removing a number of his teeth, taking Alma to bed, and putting his badge back on for the first time. “I know where it goes,” he tells Al. And he knows how to conduct a proper hanging, too. Seth may not have ended up with the role he wanted, but he’s found a home he wants to protect.

NEWS FLASH

BP Security Guard Shoots, Kills Polar Bear | A security guard shot and killed a polar bear at a BP facility in Alaska’s North Slope this month after the bear approached the company’s employee housing units. The guard is calling the incident an accident, saying he thought he was firing a bean bag round, not a lethal projectile. It’s illegal to kill polar bears as they are a “threatened species,” and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is investigating the shooting. The Center for Biological Diversity is also looking into potential legal action if the federal government does not prosecute. “We dearly wish it had not happened,” a BP spokesperson said, “but it’s not a trend or a population impact.” BP and other oil companies, however, are contributing the deaths of polar bears indirectly as climate change destroys their habitat.

LGBT

Fox Affiliate Ignores Potential Harm Of Teacher’s Anti-Gay Comments

Jerry Buell and his attorney on CNN

The National Organization for Marriage today hailed the supposed “droves” of people who showed up to defend high school history teacher Jerry Buell’s “freedom of speech.” A past “Teacher of the Year,” Buell made national headlines this week after he was suspended for comments he posted on Facebook about how news of marriage equality in New York made him “almost throw up.” He also referred to same-sex marriage as a “cesspool.” Whether or not “droves” showed up is unclear in this completely unbalanced coverage from Fox 35 in Orlando, which only featured interviews with people defending Buell:

If Fox 35 had bothered to do an accurate report on the significance of Buell’s comments, they might have talked to someone from GLSEN, who would’ve pointed out the severe negative consequence of an anti-gay environment in schools. As of 2009, nearly two-thirds of students felt unsafe in school because of their sexual orientation. In fact, at the time of the study, 30 percent of LGBT students had missed a day of school within the last month just because of safety concerns. Students who were more frequently harassed because of their sexual orientation or gender identity had grade point averages half a grade lower and reported higher rates of depression, anxiety, and low self-esteem.

NOM and Fox 35 and all the other anti-gay conservative groups out there are free to paint the now-reinstated Buell as a victim of a First Amendment violation, but the real story here is how toxic his class environment must be for those students who are already out as LGBT or are struggling to come out. It would be naive to assume that student success and safety are the primary concerns for these “family” groups.

Yglesias

Eurozone Bank Funding

I was recently told by someone in the finance world that when it comes to banks capital is less important than funding structure. A bank with long-term funding in place can conduct operations and make money. If not, then not. So how’s it looking for Europe’s banks?

Morgan Stanley, for example, calculates that of the €8,000bn funding that is currently in place for the largest 91 eurozone banks, some 58 per cent needs to be rolled over in the next two years. More startling still, some 47 per cent of this funding is less than a year in duration. Much of that is in euros.

Gulp. My view is that German elected officials are making increasingly unreasonable statements in part because the ineluctable reality that one way or the other they’re going to have to eat losses is closing in on them.

Economy

As CAP Warned, State Attorneys General’s Mortgage Servicing Investigations Threaten To Unravel Over Infighting

Our guest blogger is Alon Cohen, a housing policy consultant for the Center for American Progress.

NY AG Eric Schneiderman

The Center for American Progress warned in April 2011 that banks’ quiet settlements with federal regulators over mortgage servicing fraud concerns could spell doom for similar state AG investigations. We noted that a federal settlement could stall state attorney general talks as banks asked for time to implement the settlement terms, risking delay and fractures in the AG coalition.

The fractures would weaken the AGs’ bargaining position and could even derail a settlement altogether. Unfortunately, we may have been right. Talks in April occurred around a rumored $20 billion fine. A month later, the number dropped to $5 billion amid news of defections.

Yesterday, Iowa AG Tom Miller removed New York AG Eric Schneiderman from the lead negotiating group, claiming that he has “actively worked to undermine” the settlement. This is only the latest in a series of high profile rifts that include AGs from Florida and Massachusetts.

At this point, don’t expect an AG settlement any time soon or with any significant monetary penalty or with serious reforms required beyond what was already in the settlements with Office of the Comptroller of Currency, Office of Thrift Supervision, and FDIC. Of course, there has been no report of any significant changes coming from those settlements either.

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