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Yglesias

Intraparty Conflict

I think Neil Sinhababu is right to think that the media’s disproportionate interest in obviously doomed presidential candidates like Jon Huntsman 2012 or Joe Lieberman 2004 has to do with the general fact “that major media outlets tend to take great interest in people who loudly criticize their own parties from the center.”

In general, it’s important to appreciate that intra-party conflict plays a very special role in the American media. Operating in a kind of truth-free zone where there’s no objective reality, the closest thing to a “fact” is when all members of one party and some members of the other party agree on something. Consequently, there’s never a greater media darling than a member of congress from a contested district who’s willing to take time out of his busy day of legislating and winning re-election to go whine about the party leadership to a reporter from Roll Call or Politico. When someone does it in the course of a national political campaign, it’s an even bigger deal!

None of this would be necessary if journalists felt more comfortable running headlines like “Rick Perry Denies Truth Of All Of Modern Biology” absent an added frisson of horse race conflict. Then you could strictly separate the issue of is Perry talking nonsense about biology (yes!) from the issue of which people could plausibly win a presidential election next year.

Security

Cheney Won’t Take Anything Back, Laughs At War Crimes Accusation

Former Vice President Dick Cheney, continuing his “heads exploding” book tour, pushed back against criticisms of his book by former Secretary of State Colin Powell that the book contained, “cheap shots that he’s taking at me and other members of the Administration who served to the best of our ability for President Bush.”

Powell’s former chief of staff retired Col. Lawrence Wilkerson offered even more pointed criticisms of Cheney, telling ABC News that, “[Cheney] was president for all practical purposes for the first term of the Bush administration,” and “fears being tried as a war criminal.”

But today, Cheney appeared in a Fox News interview with Chris Wallace and hit back at his critics from the George W. Bush administration. Read the transcript:

Chris Wallace: When [Colin Powell] says ‘these are cheap shots and you’re wrong’…

Dick Cheney: Obviously I disagree with him.

Wallace: Anything you’d want to take back?

Cheney: No.

Wallace: Powell’s former chief of staff Lawrence Wilkerson, I don’t know if you know this, has also weighed in. He says you’re worried about being tried as war criminal.

Cheney: Well it’s news to me. I don’t pay a lot of attention to Mr. Wilkerson. I don’t know him. As far as I know I’ve never met the gentleman. I know he speaks out from time to time and that strikes me as a cheap shot.

Wallace: Your heads not going to explode?

Cheney: No.

Watch it:

Yglesias

Levels And Rates

Erik Loomis runs down the environmental records of the presidents with the strongest records and finds that LBJ, Jimmy Carter, and even long-ago Teddy Roosevelt have accomplishments that stack up favorably besides President Obama’s.

This is, I think, an excellent encapsulation of the “levels versus rates” problem of intertemporal political comparisons. After all, the big Obama administration initiative that everyone’s upset with now is his decision to interfere with EPA rule-making and keep a Clinton-era ozone standard in place. If Obama were actually to take us back to the environmental policy status quo that existed at the end of the Johnson administration, he’d be one of the worst presidents of all time. That said, taking a pure “levels” look can be absurd. US environmental protections were probably slightly stricter at the end of the George W Bush administration than at the beginning, but it would be pretty perverse to label a president who sided with industry incumbents at basically every turn as more environmentally friendly than the Clinton administration. Still, I don’t think you can really evaluate presidents or congresses purely in terms of rates. I just don’t think it’s possible to imagine anyone living up to the pace of progress on domestic issues that was achieved in the Johnson administration. There’s nothing comparable to creating Medicare, Medicaid, ESEA, the Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act, Wilderness Act, etc. that’s out there to be done.

Economy

Bachmann ‘Open To’ Elimination Of Corporate Income Tax

Yesterday, former half-term governor Sarah Palin continued her will-she, won’t-she flirtation with running for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. During a speech in Iowa, Palin called for the complete elimination of the federal corporate income tax. “This is how we break the back of crony capitalism because it feeds off corporate welfare, which is just socialism for the very rich,” she said.

On CBS’ Face the Nation today, host Bob Scheiffer asked 2012 contender Michele Bachmann if she was open to such a radical move. Bachmann replied that she is “open to having that debate,” suggesting that move to some other tax system could allow for the elimination of the corporate income tax:

SCHEIFFER: Congresswoman, what I asked you was would you go as far as Sarah Palin and eliminate all corporate income taxes?

BACHMANN: Well, of course to do that we’d have to have a fundamental restructuring of the tax code. What we would have to do then is rejigger other elements to define revenue and what revenues would be needed to the economy. We could go that route. If we went that route, we’d have to have a fundamental restructuring of the tax code. I am open to having that debate, and as a former federal tax lawyer, I’ve dealt with whether it’s a national consumption tax, a flat tax, or some variation of the current system. This is what I do know. It needs to be simplified, it needs to be fairer, it needs to be reduced. What we do know is that the current corporate tax rate is killing job creation.

SCHEIFFER: So you could see a way to do that? You’re not ready to just say ‘yes, I’ll do that’ but you could see by making other adjustments, a way to eliminate corporate taxes?

BACHMANN: It would be possible if we have a fundamental restructuring of the tax code.

Watch it:

Bachmann has previously called for cutting the 35 percent corporate tax rate down to nine percent, a move that would cost more than $2 trillion over ten years. This call for reducing or even eliminating corporate taxes comes at a time when corporate after tax profits are the highest they’ve been since 1947.

During the interview, Bachmann also repeatedly called for the elimination of taxes on money that corporations bring to the U.S. from overseas, even though such a move has not worked in the past to spur job creation and would cost about $80 billion over ten years.

Climate Progress

Conservative Media Inanely Declare Solar Power ‘Doesn’t Work’

Ah, right wing media.  Can’t live with them.  Can’t stop conservatives from being misled by them.

So President Bush had massive tax cuts for the wealthy and destroyed the economy while ballooning the deficit.  But do conservative media declare the tax cuts for the wealthy obviously don’t work?  Of course not.  In fact they call for deeper tax cuts for the rich.

And, let’s see, a bunch of Wall Street firms and banks go under, spinning the economy into a near total collapse.  But do conservative media declare unregulated capitalism doesn’t work?  Of course not.  In fact, they call  for less regulation.

Oh, but let a solar company fail, and suddenly the whole technology doesn’t work — even though thee U.S. solar industry had $1.8 billion in net exports last year.

Media Matters has the story, which is reposted below.

Read more

Yglesias

Drought In Texas

My colleagues have been writing some about the massive drought afflicting Texas and it really is something to behold. Out in Kerrville where I’m staying, everyone’s lawn is bone dry:

For the town this is not, per se, a giant problem. People just wish their lawns were greener. But in the countryside all around, it really is a huge problem for farmers and ranchers and shows no signs of letting up. It’s a reminder, again, that while human beings can live under all sorts of different climactic conditions we have in practice made large fixed investments in particular places anticipating particular conditions. As climate change renders these previous decisions no longer workable, the costs of adjusting are ubiquitous and large.

Climate Progress

Labor Day 2040: Endless Summer

Who ever would’ve guessed that there would be a Labor Day card for global warming.  But that is what SomeEcards are for:

But “The Onion” of e-card companies makes a serious point:  In the not-too-distant future, people are going to be amazed that anybody ever thought Labor Day signified the unofficial end of summer.  As Climate Progress discussed in “Mother Nature is Just Getting Warmed Up” in June:

Stanford climate scientists forecast permanently hotter summers

The tropics and much of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to experience an irreversible rise in summer temperatures within the next 20 to 60 years if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase, according to a new climate study by Stanford University scientists….

“According to our projections, large areas of the globe are likely to warm up so quickly that, by the middle of this century, even the coolest summers will be hotter than the hottest summers of the past 50 years,” said the study’s lead author, Noah Diffenbaugh.

And this could happen even sooner since, “actual GHG emissions over the early 21st century have exceeded those projected in the SRES scenario used here, suggesting that our results could provide a conservative projection of the timing of permanent emergence of an unprecedented heat regime.”

In a terrific presentation from last year, Climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe has a figure of what staying on the business as usual emissions path (A1FI or 1000 ppm) would mean for the end of this century (derived from the NOAA-led report):

 

Yes, absent a sharp and deep reduction in national and global emissions, by century’s end, Kansas (!) could well be above 100°F for three full months.  Labor Day will mean a return to those pleasant mid-to-upper 90s!

It truly will be an endless summer over much of Texas and Arizona and the Central Valley of California.  Not only will it be hot, but it will be very, very dry very, very soon:

Read more

Yglesias

Ten Year Real Yield Curve Hits Zero

I’ve been talking a fair amount about the negative real interest rates on five-year and seven-year treasury bonds. I see that as of Friday, then ten-year bond has declined to a real yield of zero.

I don’t expect these facts to persuade people who view almost all government spending as consisting of low-return boondoggles to suddenly start loving it. But the fact remains that when it’s cheaper to pay for things by borrowing money than by taxing productive activity, it’s pretty foolish not to step up your borrowing. The issue we ought to be debating is whether we should increase borrowing by cutting taxes or increase borrowing by hiking spending. With the House controlled by Republicans and the White House controlled by Democrats, we’d end up compromising on a mix of the two. Instead we’re talking deficit reduction. Why?

Climate Progress

CO2 is Just a Trace Gas

One of the talking points favored by deniers like Joe Bastardi is “CO2 is just a trace gas.”  It makes up less than less than four 100ths of 1% of the atmosphere — what harm could it really do?

Skeptical Science has the short and long response of “What the science says” (along with the video above).  Here’s the short answer.

Saying that CO2 is “only a trace gas” is like saying that arsenic is “only” a trace water contaminant.  Small amounts of very active substances can cause large effects.

Here’s the long answer:

Read more

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