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Yglesias

Against Passenger-Miles

To me, one of the most annoying features of the details of transportation policy is the persistent use of passenger-miles as a denominator in various calculations. As Alon Levy argues this is borderline incoherent and senselessly biased on favor of auto-oriented road projects:

Passenger-miles don’t vote. They’re not a unit of deservedness of subsidy. They’re one unit of transportation consumption. They’re like tons of staple as a unit of food production, or calories as a unit of consumption. We don’t subsidize food based on cents per calorie.

Even as a unit of consumption, there are flaws in passenger-miles as a concept, when it comes to intermodal comparisons. The reason: at equal de facto mobility, transit riders travel shorter distances than drivers. It’s very obvious when comparing total passenger-miles in transit cities and car cities (see e.g. page 36 here). Transit is slower than driving on uncongested roads, but has higher capacity than any road. In addition, transit is at its best at high frequency, which requires high intensity of uses, whereas cars are the opposite. The result is that transit cities are denser than car cities – in other words, need less passenger-miles.

The use of passenger-miles as a unit of measures embeds the assumption that the goal of a regional intra-urban transportation system is to have people traveling as far as possible. Now you could imagine a city in which individuals, firms, structures, natural resources, etc. are just strewn about at random. If that was the case, then you probably would want to organize transportation to maximize distance traveled. People would have arbitrary transportation needs, might need to get very far away, etc. But when you’re talking about a real growing city, a focus on passenger-miles just implies a focus on spreading your urban area out as widely as possible. That’s great if you’re in the business of manufacturing and selling automobiles. And because the US spent decades crafting an industrial policy oriented around the automobile manufacturing and oil extraction industries, we’ve embedded these kind of ideas in a lot of our bureaucratic processes.

Yglesias

1491/1493

Based on the titles, it seems like Charles C Mann wants us to view 1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus and 1493: Uncovering the New World Columbus Created as a pair. So I read them back to back, and it’s basically true. In principle 1491 is about pre-Columbian America while 1493 is about the Columbian Exchange. In practice, however, in order to understand why it is that the true state of pre-Columbian America hasn’t always been understood, 1491 needs to take us well into the era of colonization, and for 1493 to explain what changed it has to explain what happened before.

As a pair, their fascinating, entertaining, and informative if a bit frustratingly diffuse at times. 1493, in particular, left me eager to learn the answers to some questions that I imagine other readers will have. What did Italians eat before tomatoes? Why does Szechuan cooking have a particular predilection for hot peppers if they’re not even remotely native to the area?

The story of the potato’s introduction into Europe, which he does pursue, is pretty fascinating. Potatoes are a basically optimal source of calories per acre across huge swathes of Northern Europe, but they’re native to Peru. Europeans were extremely reluctant to grow and eat them, but governments wanted to see potato fields planted to increase their population growth rate. Many efforts had to be made to persuade them, and one of Frederick the Great’s many achievements as ruler of Prussia came in this area.

Yglesias

The Era Of Ever-Falling Inflation Expectations

Perhaps the Federal Reserve is like a charging rhino and it’s just very hard to turn it around:

Certainly it’s striking that during the past thirty years of FOMC statements and speeches by chairmen and Fed governors, not a single sentence starts with the clause “as part of our thirty year drive for ever-lower inflation expectations…” even though it’s hard to believe that inflation expectations have been steadily falling for thirty years by accident. Is there some actual reason to be doing this? I feel like if there were, the people doing it wouldn’t be so hesitant to admit that it’s what they’re doing.

Climate Progress

The Fact Checker Fails: Washington Post Okays McConnell’s Lies, While Dissing Bill Clinton’s Truths

I am awarding the Washington Post fact checker Four Pinocchios, a Pants on Fire, and a Jim Carrey (below) for his inane piece “President Clinton’s overenthusiasm for growth in green jobs.”

The fact checker decided to “fact-check” these two recent “comments about stimulus funding during NBC’s Meet the Press, Sept. 18, 2011″:

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell : “If you look at the stimulus bill, what did we get out of that? Turtle tunnels and Solyndra. More money was lost on Solyndra than came to my state to fix roads and bridges out of the entire stimulus package last year, and now he’s asking us to do it again.”

Former President Bill Clinton: “I heard what Senator McConnell said about that one project, but the hard truth is that in America, in spite of his hostility to it, green technology jobs have grown twice as fast as the overall job-generating capacity of the economy in the last eight years, where all job growth has been anemic. You’re going to have a lot of that.”

Now you might think the WashPost would be all over McConnell’s falsehoods.  After all, it is an outright lie that all we got out of the stimulus was “Turtle tunnels and Solyndra.”  The Washington Post itself reported that according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the stimulus may have generated up to 3.3 millions jobs by mid-2010 alone.

And, of course, this sentence is false: “More money was lost on Solyndra than came to my state to fix roads and bridges out of the entire stimulus package last year, and now he’s asking us to do it again.”  Obama isn’t “asking us to do it again,” in any reasonable reading of the word “it.”  And the WashPost points out “Overall, Kentucky received nearly $3.7 billion overall in stimulus funding between 2009 and 2011, according to the government-run stimulus-tracking Web site Recovery.gov.”

Pants on Fire!But it appears that one small piece of McConnell’s cavalcade of  misinformation is correct “More money was lost on Solyndra than came to my state to fix roads and bridges.”  So, of course, the WashPost fact-checker gives McConnell a clean bell of health, saying nothing more about his falsehoods than, “We find no fault with McConnell’s claim about Solyndra funding versus Kentucky’s stimulus money.”

UPDATE:  CAP’s Bracken Hendricks has sent me a good explanation of why even this one supposedly fault-free part of McConnell’s statement is incredibly misleading, which I reprint below.

President Clinton, however, uttered the truth and even provided the WashPost with a reference to back him up, but the Post gave him two Pinocchios, claiming “He relied on selective data that would support his case while ignoring other relevant numbers.”  Seriously.  Who is being selective here — Clinton or the Washington Post?

Let’s run this one down since it involves accuracy by the former president and hypocritical inaccuracy by the Washington Post of a kind I expect that we will see repeated by bad fact checkers.  The key point President Clinton made that the WashPost contests is:

Read more

Yglesias

Santa Fe Is Not The Future

It sort of seems like falling communication costs should reduce the need for people to crowd together, so I can see why people say things like this:

With broadband, employees no longer need to physically be transported to work. He sees Americans moving to scenic, ideal locations such as the mountains of Montana or the hills of Santa Fe. [Joel] Garreau splits his time between Fauquier County and Arizona.

“What you’re seeing now is what I call the Santa Fe-ing of the world, or the Santa Fe-ing of America,” he said. “The fastest growth you’re seeing is in small urban areas in beautiful places, because now you’ve got e-mail and Web and laptops and iPhones and all that jazz.”

That’s not an insane piece of idle speculation, but like David Frum I don’t understand how it survives contact with an effort to look up actual population growth figures. People are moving in droves to the Houston and Dallas metropolitan areas, neither of which are small or idyllic. Meanwhile, it’s hardly like the invention of the Internet has made it super-cheap to buy a house in Silicon Valley. Quite the reverse, actually. Most of the larger northeastern cities have seen substantial revitalizations of their downtown areas over the past twenty years, and the growth in sunbelt cities has tended to take big cities like Phoenix and make them bigger.

There are two kinds of reasons for this.

One is that online and offline communications aren’t identical. They seem in many ways to be complements rather than supplements. A non-economic way to think about this is that in principle thanks to the Internet I could spend less time socializing with people face-to-face than a past person would do. In practice, that’s not what happens. Organizing face-to-face socializing is one of the primary things I use modern information technology to do. The web has also given me a vast and far-flung network of readers, acquaintances, and contacts who I socialize with face to face from time to time as happenstance puts us in the same city. The Web doesn’t crowd out real life, it enables it. By the same token, it would be wrong to say that the allows ThinkProgress to get away without meetings or in-person interaction. Rather, without the Internet, we wouldn’t have jobs and there’d be nothing for us to hold meetings about.

The other is that lots of services can’t be provided over the internet. The web can’t cut your hair, do your nails, cook you dinner, clean your teeth, operate on your injured wrist, redo your floors, etc. You can of course get these services in small towns if you want. But large cities have more choices, more specialization, more competition, etc.

Security

John Bolton Rejects Proposal For Hotline With Tehran

Former U.N. ambassador John Bolton took to Fox News this morning to blast the idea of a “hotline” between Iran and the United States. Bolton is quick to dismiss the concept as cheap political ploy to heighten Iran’s “prestige”:

Well it’s not always the best course to assume the Ahmadinejad’s being entirely logical in what I will call the “Western” sense of that word. But it’s possible on the hotline, what he has in mind, is a mechanism that he thinks will enhance Iran’s prestige. After all, how many countries does the U.S. have that kind of hotline with. I think this is part of his charm offensive. It’s hard to use that phrase when he’s also accusing us of masterminding the 9/11 attacks but again, in his rather strange way, this is a signal as well to us as inside Iran to try and enhance his position in the political infighting that’s going on there.

Watch it:

While Bolton is dismissive of establishing a hotline, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Michael Mullen, speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace last week, said:

We haven’t had a connection with Iran since 1979. Even in the darkest days of the Cold War, we had links to the Soviet Union. We are not talking to Iran, so we don’t understand each other. If something happens, it’s virtually assured that we won’t get it right — that there will be miscalculation which would be extremely dangerous in that part of the world. [...]

And one day before Mullen delivered his remarks, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.S. officials were examining the establishment of a hotline following a series of “near miss” encounters between American and Iranian forces in the Persian Gulf.

Bolton dismisses the hotline as a ploy by Ahmadinejad to increase his “prestige.” But the U.S. military is increasingly voicing concern that a misunderstanding with Tehran could lead to a wider conflict in an already tense region.

Climate Progress

Is Joe Bastardi the Worst Long-Range Forecaster Ever?

Many of the key Arctic sea ice records fell this year (see “Record Low Sea Ice Volume, Area and Extent*).

Records

In short, the Arctic death spiral continues.

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi has always made nonsensical forecasts like “The coming cooling of the planet overall will return it to where it was in the ’60s, ’70s, and ’80s.” No doubt that’s a key reasons he is no longer AccuWeather’s chief long-range forecaster.  But before he left, Bastardi made a prediction that reveals how his anti-scientific views destroy his forecasting credibility.

On September 20, 2010, Bastardi predicted that Arctic Sea Ice extent would return to 2005 levels:  “We are going to recover dramatically here with a cold that is coming over the next 9 to 12 months“!

I know you are wondering where that cold was (see “Third Hottest Summer Globally, Second Warmest for U.S. With Stunning Weather Extremes, Texas Drought Worst in Centuries“).  And for those who find it hard to believe anyone could have made such a ridiculous forecast, let’s go to the videotape [put on those head vises]:

Read more

Economy

Fox Pundit Blasts Senate For Doing ‘Nothing’ On Disaster Aid, 10 Days After It Passes $7 Billion Disaster Aid Bill

This week, after continually claiming that they wouldn’t hold disaster aid hostage for budget cuts, the House GOP did just that, voting down a continuing resolution that included the aid, and only approving it after $100 million more in cuts were added to the package.

House Republicans then turned around and blamed Senate Democrats for holding disaster aid hostage, with a spokesman for Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-OH) saying “any political games from Senate Dems will only delay FEMA money that disaster victims desperately need.” Fox pundit Brit Hume picked up on this theme today on Fox News Sunday:

HUME: Let’s just take look at this latest skirmish. You need a continuing resolution to keep the government open and there’s a need for some relief funding because it’s almost been exhausted. So the Republicans pass a bill that has the disaster relief funding in it, to the tune of several billion dollars and they pay for it with cuts in green jobs funding. Well, green job funding ought to be by now a very low priority given the history of it and the fact that its utterly failed to produce meaningful jobs.

They sent it to the Senate. What does the Senate do? The Senate blocks it and then does, so far, nothing. Now, it may be that with the media coverage and the political statements that will be made about this, that if the government shuts down the Republicans will get the blame. But I ask you in this: who’s being responsible? And who’s playing politics?

Watch it:

The only problem with this storyline developed by the GOP and its friends at Fox News? On September 15, the Senate passed a bill containing $7 billion in disaster aid. The bipartisan 62-37 vote took place days before the House ever got around to advancing its own package.

The government’s funding runs out on Friday, so the prospect of another government shutdown is looming. But at the moment, the right seems more interested in trying to pretend that the Senate has not passed something that it most certainly has.

NEWS FLASH

Graham Suggests U.S. Military Action Inside Pakistan In Response To ISI Aid To Haqqani Network | Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Adm. Mike Mullen said Thursday that Pakistan’s spy agency played a direct role in an attack on the U.S. Embassy and NATO headquarters in Kabul last week. “With ISI support,” Mullen said, referring to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, “Haqqani operatives planned and conducted that truck bomb attack, as well as the assault on our embassy.” Today on Fox News Sunday, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said the United States should “put all options on the table” in response. “That’s a pretty stunning statement,” host Chris Wallace said and repeatedly asked Graham to clarify whether he was referring to military action against Pakistan. “I will leave it up to the experts,” Graham said, adding, “but if the experts believe that we need to elevate our response, they will have a lot of bipartisan support on Capitol Hill.” Watch the clip:

NEWS FLASH

Saudi Arabia Gives Women Right To Vote, Run In Local Elections | Saudi Arabian King Abdullah has granted women the right to vote and run for office in forthcoming local elections, the Guardian reported today. The changes will occur after this week’s election, in which women are barred from voting or standing for office. “We have decided, after deliberation with our senior ulama [clerics] and others … to involve women in the Shura council as members, starting from the next term,” Abdullah announced. “Women will be able to run as candidates in the municipal election and will even have a right to vote.” Saudi Arabian activists hailed the changes as “great news” and vowed to continue fighting for the rights of Saudi women, who cannot travel or have certain medical operations without male consent and are prohibited from driving.

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