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NEWS FLASH

BREAKING: Upper Big Branch Disaster Leads To $200 Million Settlement, Prosecutions Still Likely | Alpha Resources, the owner of disgraced coal mine company Massey Energy, will pay a $200 million settlement in fines, safety improvements, and victim restitution for the 29 miners who died in the Upper Big Branch disaster of April 2010. The deal between Alpha and U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin lifts civil penalties and criminal liability for the mining company, but does not prohibit prosecutions of Massey officers and employees, including former Massey CEO Don Blankenship.

Climate Progress

It’s “Extremely Likely That at Least 74% of Observed Warming Since 1950″ Was Manmade; It’s Highly Likely All of It Was

Back in 2009, NASA’s Gavin Schmidt was asked, “what percentage of global warming is due to human causes vs. natural causes?”  His answer:

Over the last 40 or so years, natural drivers would have caused cooling, and so the warming there has been … caused by a combination of human drivers and some degree of internal variability. I would judge the maximum amplitude of the internal variability to be roughly 0.1 deg C over that time period, and so given the warming of ~0.5 deg C, I’d say somewhere between 80% to 120% of the warming. Slightly larger range if you want a large range for the internal stuff.

Turns out he was spot on.

A new study in Nature Geoscience, Anthropogenic and natural warming inferred from changes in Earth’s energy balance” (subs. req’d) finds:

Our results show that it is extremely likely that at least 74% of the observed warming since 1950 was caused by radiative forcings, and less than 26% by unforced internal variability. Of the forced signal during that particular period, 102% (90–116%) is due to anthropogenic and 1% (−10 to 13%) due to natural forcing….  The combination of those results with attribution studies based on optimal fingerprinting, with independent constraints on the magnitude of climate feedbacks, with process understanding, as well as palaeoclimate evidence leads to an even higher confidence about human influence dominating the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times.

Here’s a figure from the study comparing the magnitude of different “forcing agents” or contributors to warming since the 1950s:

Contributions of different forcing agents to the total observed temperature change. Error bars denote the 5–95% uncertainty range. The grey shading shows the estimated 5–95% range for internal variability. Observations are shown as dashed lines.

The Nature News and Scientific American stories have had misleading headlines:

Three-Quarters of Climate Change Is Man-Made

That’s not a good headline.

The 74% or “three quarters” probability is where the 95% confidence level is for this one study.  As climatologist Kevin Trenberth put it in an email, it is “highly likely” that all of the warming since 1950 is due to human activity:

Read more

Economy

Kyl Could Support A Middle Class Tax Cut, But Only If The Rich Get A Massive Tax Break Too

As Democrats continue to push a renewal of the payroll tax cut included in last year’s deal to extend the Bush tax cuts, members of the Republican Party have reportedly grown concerned that if they do not go along with the proposal, they will lose their reputation as anti-tax zealots and get painted as defenders of the richest Americans. Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl (R), apparently, is not one of those Republicans.

Speaking on the Senate floor this afternoon, Kyl blasted the plan put forth today by Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), which would partially pay for the extension by instituting a temporary surtax on Americans whose incomes top $1 million. Despite outlining his perceived problems with the plan, however, Kyl said he could be persuaded to vote for an extension — but only if Democrats agreed to again extend the 2003 Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans:

KYL: It was part of an overall agreement in which we said we will extend all of the existing tax rates — the so-called Bush tax cuts, that is the rates that have been in effect since 2001 and 2003, we would extend this temporary tax holiday from the payroll tax cut, we would extend all of those. And I supported that. That frankly was the right thing to do, to extend all of these existing rates. … Now if we can do that again, I’m all for it. I’ll support the extension of the payroll tax holiday.

Watch it:

The payroll tax cut extension as proposed by Democrats would ensure that, at a time when the middle- and working-classes are still inching toward recovery, the average household would pocket an extra $1,000 a year. Meanwhile, in Kyl’s home state of Arizona, the millionaires’ surtax used to pay for much of the extension would affect just 0.1 percent of all taxpayers — a whopping 3,173 people who bring home an average annual income of $3.5 million, according to a Citizens for Tax Justice analysis. And while proposals exist to pay for the extension, no such plan exists for the Bush tax cuts, despite a 10-year price tag topping $2.5 trillion and no meaningful job creation to show for the cost.

Kyl’s statement is a direct contradiction to comments he made just a year ago during debate about the Bush tax cuts. “My view, and I think most of the people in my party don’t believe that you should ever have to offset a tax cut,” Kyl told reporters in July 2010. Now that it is a Democratic tax cut on the table, however, Kyl not only opposes the Democrats’ attempts to offset the costs, he wants to ensure that the middle class doesn’t get a tax cut unless the wealthiest Americans — whose tax rates are already at historic lows — get one too.

NEWS FLASH

Colorado Supreme Court Hands Democrats Major Redistricting Victory | Democrats scored a major victory in the battle over redistricting today when the Colorado Supreme Court selected their new congressional map over the Republicans’ proposal. Per state law, each party submitted competing redistricting plans to a district court judge after the state legislature was unable to agree on a map. The state Supreme Court today affirmed the previous ruling in favor of the Democrats. The Republican plan would have done little to change the current congressional districts, despite population shifts within the state over the last decade. The Democrats’ map is expected to create more competitive congressional districts than currently exist in the Centennial State.

Politics

Romney Comes Out In Favor Of Payroll Tax Holiday Extension, After Dismissing It As A ‘Band-Aid’

GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney came out today in support of extending the payroll tax holiday, which congressional Republicans are currently blocking. “I would like to see the payroll tax cut extended because I know that working families are really feeling the pinch right now,” Romney told conservative talk radio host Michael Medved, according to NBC News. Republicans — including Romney, until today — have been cool on extending of the middle-class tax cut because they demanded that it be offset so as to not impact the deficit. On Medved’s show today, Romney didn’t say whether he thought the holiday should be offset.

Previously, Romney has been dismissive of the holiday, which affects 95 percent of working families, but will expire at the end of the year if Congress does not act. Asked if he would extend the holiday at a GOP deabte in October, Romney said, “I don’t like temporary little Band-Aids, I want to fundamentally restructure America’s foundation economically.”

Romney, who made a fortune running Bain Capital, has been trying to fight off perceptions that he “represents the 1 percent,” as the conservative publisher of the influential New Hampshire Union Leader, and GOP presidential candidate Buddy Roemer, put it.

Despite their professed opposition to taxes of any kind, Republicans in Congress have already voted down two attempts to extend the payroll tax holiday, with House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) saying behind closed doors that the proposal was “chicken-shit.”

Alyssa

The British In India At The Yale Center For British Art

During my trip to New Haven last week, I was fortunate enough to spend a morning at “Adapting The Eye: An Archive of the British In India, 1770-1830,” a terrific exhibit at the Yale Center for British Art, curated by Holly Shafer, a PhD candidate in the University’s Art History Department, who someone should definitely hire on the basis of this show. It’s a fascinating look at the relationship between art and politics. And “Adapting The Eye” isn’t just about the way the British saw India — it’s about the way they saw themselves in India and what that meant for their colonial project.

In the absence of photography, painting played a critical role in documenting everything from gift-giving rituals to assessing military positioning. Surveyor Robert Mabon made jewel-like portraits of the presents that were part of diplomatic exchanges like the one to the right here and of techniques for saddling horses complete with painstakingly detailed notes. Warren Hastings, the British governor of Bengal, commissioned William Hodges to paint the fortresses controlled by Raja Chait Singh so he could assess the strength of the forces behind a rebellion — the results included both military useful information and an impressionistic sense of Indian landscapes. And art even became part of British and Indian diplomatic traditions. To both meet the requirements of their budgeteers and to avoid the perception that they were being corrupted by establishing the lavish, jeweled gifts that were traditionally exchanged in the Mughal court, British diplomats created a new tradition of exchanging portraits, creating a new Indian market for British painters.

And even when they weren’t creating art for the purpose of cultural exchange in Indian, British artists constantly wrote themselves into the images of India — and some of those portraits may have been more revealing than they were intended to be. In Thomas Danielle’s painting of Sir Charles Ware signing a treaty in 1770 with the Maratha Empire, British officers are seated on the floor of a palace in the style of their hosts, displaying attitudes that range from ease, to extreme dignity, to wondrous excitement at the circumstances. Painter James Wales wrote that Charles Warre Malet told him of his 40-day journey to see the Taj Mahal that “at first sight how well his journey was justified.” It makes sense that the British would want to see their efforts, even a more than a month-long site-seeing schlep, as worth the work, no matter how strenuous. Bathazar Solvyns, a Belgian who wrote a dubious anthropological survey of India, revealed as much about himself and his gaze as he did about his subjects when he wrote of dancing girls he observed that “their movements are confined, being either extremely rapid or solemnly slow, and their attitudes or gestures, which are sometimes graceful, are almost always indecent, there therefore disgusting; their general object is to excite desire, and where they succeed, there are not to be found much to envy.” In Arthur William Devis’ “Portrait of a Gentleman,” lawyer William Hickey both smokes a hookah and handles a letter of business — has he corrupted himself by going native? Or are the temptations of India no match for England’s energy in commerce?

And in Samuel Howitt’s 1807 “The Tiger at Bay,” British men load, aim, and fire at a tiger, while Indian men control the elephants that let the British get close to their quarry, an interesting if unintentional foreshadowing of the Indian Rebellion of 1857, made possible in part by tensions in the military forces made up of Indian soldiers and commanded by British officers. There was only so much that British self-portraits in India, especially those sponsored by British government and commercial organizations, could capture — and only so much that they could see into the future.

NEWS FLASH

Clear Channel Replaces San Fran’s Only Liberal AM Station With Glenn Beck | Radio giant Clear Channel Communications is removing San Francisco’s only progressive AM talk radio station from the band, replacing it with mostly conservative content like Glenn Beck and Fox News Radio. As Brad Blog reports, Green960-KKGN will now move to the “radio ghetto” of FM HD2, which requires listeners to have an HD radio. Clear Channel, which now happens to be owned by Mitt Romney’s Bain Capital, said in a press release announcing the move that they saw an opportunity to “expand our footprint in this crucial arena as we head into an election year.” Clear Channel is the nation’s largest radio network and the vast majority of their talk radio content — 86 percent, according to liberal talk radio host Bill Press — is conservative.

Economy

Gingrich Dismisses Gender Pay Gap, Says In 15 Years We’ll Be Worried About Male Inequality

Gingrich thinks that the real problem is male inequality.

Last week, GOP presidential primary candidate Newt Gingrich appeared at Harvard to talk about his campaign. At the conclusion of his speech, he fielded questions from students that were recorded and uploaded to YouTube. One student asked the former House speaker about the pay gap between men and women. Gingrich completely dismissed this gap, saying that the student will soon be worried about male inequality instead because women are overtaking their counterparts:

STUDENT: Hi, Speaker, I’m Holly Flynn, a freshman at the college. Two details of your film really stood out to me. One was Phyllis Schlafly’s commentary. And the other was the characterization of women winning World War II as a negative image. So I’d like you to clarify your stance on womens’ rights. And I’d like to know what you’d do to ensure gender equality in the United States. Given that even today, women make 77 cents to every man’s dollar.

GINGRICH: Well, the latter is going to change dramatically in the next generation because more women are going to college than men. And they’re doing better than men and entering professions more than men. In fact, if anything, you’ll be here in fifteen years wondering what we’ll do about men inequality and male unemployment. Because the people who had the deepest decline of income are males who don’t go to college.

Watch it:

There is a case to be made that, in some areas, women are now overtaking men — such as in college attendance. However, Gingrich is wrong to completely dismiss the wider issue of inequality that is keeping women from earning similar wages to their male counterparts. For one, college attendance is not the only factor that determines salaries. Women working in the exact same industries with the exact same jobs continue to be paid less than men, and even women working in the highest-paid jobs continue to earn less than men. And although Gingrich seems to point to the recession as lowering the pay gap between sexes, the pay gap has actually staganted during the poor economy. (HT: YouTube account TheAsianRepublican)

Special Topic

Bloomberg’s Girlfriend Was Paid $109,954 In 2009 By The Tax-Dodging Owners Of Zuccotti Park

Bloomberg with girlfriend Diana Taylor.

It has now been almost three weeks since New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg suddenly sent in riot police to evict the Occupy Wall Street encampment of Zuccotti Park. Today, revelations emerged that the owners of Zuccotti Park, Brookfield Properties, owe the city over $139,000 — four times the starting salary of an officer in the New York Police Department — in back taxes.

MichaelMoore.com notes this in the context of a major conflict of interest. Michael Bloomberg’s girlfriend — Diana Taylor — currently serves on the Board of Directors of Brookfield Properties. The site found that Taylor was paid a whopping $109,954 in 2009, having attended meetings only nine days a year, by Brookfield:

The fact that Bloomberg’s girlfriend netted a six-figure salary from a company that dodged a six-figure amount of taxes while it requested the city to crack down on protesters is discomforting, to say the least.

Justice

Former Bush Attorney General Rejects Congressional GOP Witchhunt Against Justice Kagan

In an attempt to rig the Supreme Court and ensure that the Affordable Care Act will be struck down, high ranking members of the House and Senate GOP — including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and House Judiciary Chair Lamar Smith (R-TX) — have made a series of increasingly improbable claims that Justice Elena Kagan must recuse herself from the lawsuit challenging health reform. This morning, however, George W. Bush’s former Attorney General Michael Mukasey puts these ridiculous claims in their place:

The [law] that potentially relates to Justice Kagan requires disqualification “[w]here [the Justice] has served in governmental employment and in such capacity participated as counsel [or] adviser concerning the proceeding or expressed an opinion concerning the merits of the particular case or controversy.” “Proceeding” is defined to include all stages of the relevant litigation.

In order to run afoul of that provision, Justice Kagan herself would have had to participate in her official capacity as counsel or adviser in the case at any stage, or expressed an opinion in her official capacity about the merits. Asked during her confirmation proceedings whether she had done so, she said no. Absent evidence to the contrary, there is no reason not to credit that denial. Statements of opinion to friends or former colleagues do not count here.

Mukasey’s op-ed also rejects calls from several progressive lawmakers for Justice Thomas to recuse himself from this case, and Mukasey is right that there is not currently any public evidence justifying Thomas’ recusal. Despite the many, many ethical issues surrounding Justice Thomas, no one has yet uncovered evidence that Thomas’ family has a current financial stake in the outcome of this litigation — although Justice Thomas’ wife did once solicit lobbying clients that could potentially raise recusal issues for her husband.

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