“Likely …. the most prolific five-day period of tornado activity on record for so early in the year“

NBC: “It’s as if a huge chunk of the country has suffered a deep, deep scar.”

National Weather Service Warnings for Past Week

The unexpectedly fierce and fast tornado outbreak so early in the season has folks asking again about a possible link to climate change. Climatologist Dr. Kevin Trenberth emailed me that, because of climate change, “there is every expectation that the [tornado] season will move up in time.  The warm winter in the US is perhaps an indicator of the nature of the changes to be expected.”

The former head of the Climate Analysis Section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research stands by his 2011 statement, “It is irresponsible not to mention climate change in stories that presume to say something about why all these storms and tornadoes are happening.” Below is some clarification of the context of that quote that he added. Trenberth also said:

Joe, what we can say with confidence is that heavy and extreme precipitation events often associated with thunderstorms and convection are increasing and have been linked to human-induced changes in atmospheric composition.

Insured losses due to thunderstorms and tornadoes in the U.S. in 2011 dollars. Data and image from Property Claims Service, Munich Re.

After April 2011 saw records set for most tornadoes in a month and in 24 hours, I examined the link in great detail here, looking at the data, the literature, and expert analysis.  That piece concluded:

1. When discussing extreme weather and climate, tornadoes should not be conflated with the other extreme weather events for which the connection is considerably more straightforward and better documented, including deluges, droughts, and heat waves.
2. Just because the tornado-warming link is more tenuous doesn’t mean that the subject of global warming should be avoided entirely when talking about tornadoes.

This post will run through the scientific literature along with some analyses from this year and last by leading experts.

First, though, some of the details on this week’s tornado outbreak.

MONDAY UPDATE: USA Today has a good piece, ”Warm winter helped fuel tornado outbreak,” which cites today’s post by Weather Underground meteorologist Dr. Jeff Masters

This year’s unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average–among the top ten warmest values on record for this time of year, going back to the 1800s. (Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 – 30°N, 85 – 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average). Friday’s tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there. This exceptionally warm air set record high temperatures at 28 airports in Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia the afternoon of the tornado outbreak (March 2.) Cold, dry air from Canada moved over the outbreak region at high altitudes. This created a highly unstable atmosphere–warm, low-density air rising in thunderstorm updrafts was able to accelerate rapidly upwards to the top of the lower atmosphere, since the surrounding air was cooler and denser at high altitudes. These vigorous updrafts needed some twisting motion to get them spinning and create tornadoes. Very strong twisting forces were present Friday over the tornado outbreak area, thanks to upper-level jet stream winds that blew in excess of 115 mph. These winds changed speed and direction sharply with height,imparting a shearing motion on the atmosphere (wind shear), causing the air to spin. High instability and a high wind shear are the two key ingredients for tornado formation.

Here’s more from Masters on the record-setting storms:

Read more

Appearing on CNN, Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich bet that oil companies will ruin the economy, getting President Obama out of office. Asked by Candy Crowley why he is so confident of a Republican landslide in the November elections, Gingrich predicted that gasoline prices — already on a rapid rise to the massive benefit of the oil industry — will continue to skyrocket, leading to an economic collapse by August:

The price of gasoline is becoming a genuine crisis for many American families. If it continues to go higher, it will crater the economy by August. Because people will have no discretionary income and as a result, the president’s going to go into the fall with very expensive gasoline, a weakening economy, a disastrously bad policy in the Middle East and a trillion dollar deficit. I think that’s a pretty big burden while he’s waging war on the Catholic Church and apologizing to Islamic extremists. I think that’s a pretty heavy burden for the President of the United States to carry for re-election.

Watch it:

Gasoline prices are rising much faster than oil prices are, because of decisions made by oil companies to increase their profits even as US demand declines. Americans have been shifting to much more fuel-efficient cars from a resurgent American auto industry.

But the oil industry has been shutting down oil refineries, reducing production, and exporting gasoline, putting the squeeze on gasoline prices to ensure continued record profits. Further refinery shutdowns are planned, guaranteeing further gas price spikes in the future. Rampant speculator activity accelerates the flow of wealth from drivers’ pockets at the gas pump to the one percent.

When gas prices go up, Big Oil wins and everyone else loses — except, Newt Gingrich bets, the Republican Party. It would take a conspiracy theorist like Rick Santorum to believe that the oil and Wall Street executives would deliberately hurt the U.S. economy to help Republicans win. But there’s little evidence that given the choice between their own short-term profits and the welfare of the 99 percent, Big Oil would make any sacrifice.

Transcript:

Read more

by Zachary Rybarczyk

Scaling up energy efficiency retrofits around the U.S. could save an estimated $1 trillion over the next 10 years while creating 3.3 million job years for a wide range of skilled workers, according to study released this week from Deutsche Bank and the Rockefeller Foundation.

The study, “United States Building Energy Efficiency Retrofits,” calculates the massive economic impact a $279 billion investment in energy efficiency would have. Along with saving consumers money and boosting economic productivity, the investment would also reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 600 million metric tons — or about 10% of current emissions.

Here’s a run-down of the impact in each sector:The majority of economic savings, GHG reductions, and direct and indirect “job years” would be created in the residential sector. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and the Rockefeller Foundation estimate that residential building stock could be made 30% more efficient by retrofitting all buildings built before 1980.

So how to get there?

Deutsche Bank also explores financing models that could facilitate the expansion of energy efficiency retrofits at such a massive scale. Here’s a great summary of some of the top models currently being used in the U.S. (click on graph to enlarge):

Read more

by Catherine Woodiwiss

For many Christians, the 40-day period of fasting and reflection before Easter known as Lent is a chance to get in mental and spiritual shape.

People give up chocolate; quit drinking or smoking; avoid meat; start reading the Bible regularly; or even give up social media – “fasts” intended to discipline and re-direct one’s mind to the divine. For Catholics, liturgical Protestants, and, increasingly, non-denominational Christians around the country, Lent fasts can often feel like New Year’s Resolutions 2.0: a second attempt at giving up small indulgences for personal betterment.

But this year, thousands of Christians worldwide are making a bigger statement: giving up carbon to help save the planet. (Of course, it’s nearly impossible to “give up” all carbon. But devoted Christians are doing their best to reduce their carbon footprints during this time.)

Faith groups leading the charge have dubbed this practice a “Carbon Fast.” From taking on daily ecological-minded actions like walking to work, to engaging in national advocacy and carbon-reduction campaigns, these groups are determined to bring awareness of human involvement in climate change and promote stewardship of the earth throughout the 40 days of Lent.

Read more