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Climate Progress

Obama’s Other Climate Messaging Mistake: Trying to Debunk A Myth By Repeating It

I will focus on a “speaking secret” in my Sunday updates on “Language Intelligence“ – which has been the #1 Kindle book on “public speaking” since it came out in mid-August. Award-winning writer Sean Otto said in his review, “If you want to win the argument, in politics, in business, in life, Language Intelligence is an essential, entertaining and inspiring weapon in your arsenal of letters.” This post reviews why you shouldn’t repeat a myth you are trying to debunk.

President Obama’s failure to speak out repeatedly on the urgency of climate action is his biggest communications mistake. If our leaders don’t talk about an issue, it generally won’t become sufficiently salient for either the media or the public.

But Obama’s statement at the Democratic convention — responding to Romney’s mockery of his 2008 pledge of climate action — also contained a classic messaging mistake:

And yes, my plan will continue to reduce the carbon pollution that is heating our planet – because climate change is not a hoax.  More droughts and floods and wildfires are not a joke.  They’re a threat to our children’s future.  And in this election, you can do something about it.

The social science literature is quite clear that repeating a myth is not the best way to debunk it. Indeed, there is evidence that it can actually end up promoting that myth.

It’s why linguist George Lakoff titled his best-selling book, Don’t think of an elephant. If I say that to you, you will think of an elephant. Negatives carry very little rhetorical weight. In this case, the word “hoax” is very strong and memorable and is not one that should be repeated by those who understand the realities of climate science.

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Security

Republican Congressman Says Iraq Withdrawal Brought On Embassy Attacks

Today on NBC’s Meet the Press, Rep. Peter King (R-NY) said that the attacks on U.S. embassies in Egypt and Libya last week were brought on by President Obama’s order to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq:

GREGORY: You’re a supporter of governor Romney, is this American weakness that brought this on. Is that the Republican view, is that what the view of President Romney would be?

KING: Well my view is President Obama’s policy has been confusing it’s been apologetic and it’s been misguided. From the day he started his apology tour back in 2009 , he was no matter what people say, apologizing for America. Somehow suggesting that we’ve been anti Islam until he became the president. Even talking about Iraq. He took our troops out of Iraq without even getting the status of forces agreement. He was given a glide path in Iraq and yet he pulled the troops out, brags about the fact that the troops are out, gives a definite get for getting out in Afghanistan. What he’s doing by that is telling our allies they can’t trust us.

Watch the clip:

Obama did indeed withdraw American forces from Iraq but it wasn’t a unilateral decision, the Iraqis wanted the U.S. military to leave as well.

Climate Progress

Warmer Temperatures Make New USDA Plant Zone Map Obsolete

New Approach to Mapping Plant Hardiness Zones Accounts for Effects of Climate Change

City College of New York news release

A map of warming across the nation showing how much USDA plant hardiness zones will warm, in degrees Farhenheit. (Credit: Nir Krakauer)
Gardeners and landscapers may want to rethink their fall tree plantings. Warming temperatures have already made the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s new cold-weather planting guidelines obsolete, according to Dr. Nir Krakauer, assistant professor of civil engineering in The City College of New York’s Grove School of Engineering.Professor Krakauer developed a new method to map cold-weather zones in the United States that takes rapidly rising temperatures into account. Analyzing recent weather data, he overhauled the Department of Agriculture’s latest plant zone map released in January. 

The new USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map, which predicts which trees and perennials can survive the winter in a given region, was a long time coming. Temperature boundaries shown in the latest version have shifted northward since the last one appeared in 1990. But the true zones have moved even further, according to Professor Krakauer’s calculations.

Over one-third of the country has already shifted half-zones compared to the current release, and over one-fifth has shifted full zones,” Professor Krakauer wrote this summer in the journal “Advances in Meteorology.”

This means that fig trees, once challenged by frosty temperatures above North Carolina, are already weathering New York City winters thanks to changing temperatures and the insulating effect of the metropolis. Camellias, once happiest south of Ohio, may now be able to shrug off Detroit winters.

The USDA divides the country into zones based on their annual minimum temperatures – frigid dips that determine which plants perish overnight or live to flower another day. (Each zone has a minimum temperature range of 10 degrees Fahrenheit; half zones have a 5-degree range.)

Professor Krakauer found a weakness in how the agency came up with the zones, however. The USDA averaged annual minimum temperatures over a 30-year span, from 1976 to 2005, but winters have warmed significantly over that period. Zones now average about 2 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the USDA’s 30-year average.

“What is happening is that the winter is warming faster than the summer. Since [my] hardiness temperatures are based on minimum temperatures each year, they are changing faster than the average temperatures,” Professor Krakauer said. He found that these lowest yearly temperatures warmed roughly two and a half times faster than the average temperatures.

His analysis also showed that the country is changing unevenly; more warming is occurring over the eastern interior and less in the Southwest.

Professor Krakauer’s technique will allow gardeners and farmers to reassess more frequently what will survive the next year’s winter. “The idea is that you could use this method to keep updating the zone map year by year instead of waiting for the official map – just keep adding new data and recalculate.”

He noted that similar analyses could distinguish long-lasting climate trends – in wind or rainfall, for example – from year-to-year weather variations to distinguish between what some are calling the recent “weird weather” and the natural variations in global weather.

Reference: Nir Y. Krakauer. Estimating Climate Trends: Application to United States Plant Hardiness Zones. Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2012 (2012), Article ID 404876, doi:10.1155/2012/404876

Security

ABC News Reporter Makes Specious Claim That Iran Is Capable Of Producing Nuclear Weapons In Four Weeks

ABC News Reporter Brian Ross

On ABC’s This Week, ABC News reporter Brian Ross responded to a question from host Jake Tapper about when Iran might be capable of producing a nuclear weapon by claiming that if Iran decides to pursue them, they could acquire a nuclear weapon in as little as four weeks.

Ross was met with incredulity by the rest of the This Week panel, including foreign correspondent Christiane Amanpour:

TAPPER: Brian, very quickly, what are your sources telling you about how far the Iranians are when it comes to building a nuclear device?

ROSS: Four to six weeks away, if they made the decision to do it. That’s some of the intelligence. They haven’t made that decision, that’s the key.

AMANPOUR: That has been so vastly disproved. Others say that it could be a year. So, this is a guessing game that has gone on for years.

Watch it:

Ross’ timeline is way off the mark. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta just last week addressed the potential timeline for an Iranian nuclear device, telling CBS News that it would take at least a year for the Iranians to build any kind of nuclear weapon if they decide to pursue it. “It’s going to take them a while once they make the decision to do it,” he said.

According to U.S. and Israeli intelligence and the International Atomic Energy Agency, there have been no indications as of yet that Iran has even decided to actively pursue a nuclear weapons program.

Panetta also said the U.S. would know if Iran had begun to aggressively pursue a nuclear program. “We have pretty good intelligence on them. We know generally what they’re up to. And so we keep a close track on them,” he said last week. Indeed, apart from what U.S., Israeli and Western intelligence agencies know about Iran’s nuclear program, if Iran decided to pursue nuclear weapons, “it would be very difficult to avoid being detected by IAEA inspectors,” the Los Angeles Times noted, “who regularly visit Iranian nuclear facilities. Detection could spur other countries to try to stop them or simply attack.”

Update

A bipartisan expert report on Iran’s nuclear program released last week says: “Conservatively, it would take Iran a year or more to build a military-grade weapon, with at least two years or more required to create a nuclear warhead that would be reliably deliverable by a missile.”

Media

New York Times Reporter Parrots GOP Talking Points, Suggests Obama’s Middle East Policy Is ‘Naive’ And ‘Quaint’

This morning on Fox News Sunday, New York Times reporter Jeff Zeleny suggested Obama’s foreign policy in the Middle East, as articulated in his 2009 Cairo speech, was “naive” and “quaint.” He also speculated, without any substantiation, that the attacks on the U.S. embassy in Libya could be the result of “a major intelligence failure.” Transcript:

If it turns out a month from now that there was a major intelligence failure I think this is going to look pretty irresponsible and silly right now to say this is all because of a trailer for a video. I was at that speech in Cairo in 2009 and I’m struck how much has changed and how much it almost looks some of those comments sound — I don’t know if naive — but quaint given everything that happened with the Arab Spring and things and certainly not really relevant. I think there is time for a reset of that reset and we haven’t heard the president talk about his policy a lot since then.

Watch it:

 

 

Zeleny’s comments parroted the talking points of the Romney campaign and the Republican party. Two days ago, Rudy Giuliani — a prominent Romney surrogate — called Obama’s foreign policy in the Middle East “naive” on CNBC. This week, Sarah Palin and Pat Buchannan offered the exact same critique, citing the Cairo speech.

You can read Obama’s 2009 Cairo speech here. It’s unclear why the Arab Spring — which liberated millions of people from dictatorship — invalidates Obama’s sentiments.

Climate Progress

A Republican’s Case For Supporting Renewable Energy

As an organization concerned deeply about climate change, we often heavily criticize the “all of the above” approach to energy development. If we’re truly going to address the problem and lower greenhouse gas emissions, a primary focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency, and conservation need to be our number one priority. Digging a deeper carbon hole isn’t an option.

However, we’re also dealing with a very contentious political landscape in which renewable energy has become a political target — something that has been marginalized and detested by Republican politicians and interest groups, even while widely supported by the American people. So today, when a conservative comes out in strong defense of renewable energy, it’s worth highlighting their comments. In the case of the letter below, sent to Republicans in Michigan, we certainly don’t agree with the “drill here, drill now” premise; however, this letter also shows that there are still Republicans who believe strongly in aggressively promoting renewables. We believe they deserve to be recognized because, sadly, their voices are often drowned out by groups that have hijacked the energy conversation.

TO: Michigan Republicans/Conservative Activists and other Interested Parties
FROM: Saul Anuzis, Republican National Committeeman-­-Michigan
RE: A Conservative’s Case For “All of the Above”
DATE: August 17, 2012

Republicans and Conservatives ARE “green” and we ARE committed to preserving the health, economic, and spiritual benefits of our natural world for our children, grandchildren and future generations to come.

In the spirit of Teddy Roosevelt, most conservatives and Republicans are “conservationists” vs. “environmentalists.” We believe in preserving our natural resources for the responsible use of all citizens. As Barry Goldwater said, “While I am a great believer in the free enterprise system and all that it entails, I am an even stronger believer in the right our people to live in a clean and pollution-­- free environment” (The Conscience of a Majority (1970).

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Climate Progress

Jaw-Dropping Shell Filings Undercut Tar Sands Industry Rhetoric On Pollution

by Josh Mogerman, via NRDC’s Switchboard

There is no shortage of messaging from Big Oil trumpeting efforts to green “the Patch,” which is the euphemistic term applied to Alberta’s tar sands mine and melt sites.

They underplay the carbon impacts of what has been termed “the dirtiest oil on the planet” and trot out fancy technologies and plans that have yet to be put into action at industrial scale. And while there is a rosy picture painted for us Stateside, the business pages in Canada tend to lay bare the galling details of tar sands infrastructure pretty openly. There’s a great example of this from the Globe & Mail’s excellent reporter Nathan VanderKlippe.

Alberta has just put new pollution caps in place and despite all the nice talk of cleaning up the tar sands,  industry is bucking up against them. Here’s the assessment that comes out of Shell’s filings for their proposed new Jackpine mine in which they basically say, “our mine isn’t so bad, but if things continue in tar sands land at the current rate, it may get ugly!” A few choice tidbits from the G&M:

“Now, however, the Shell report projects that if the industry continues on its current course, it will run past annual limits on sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide in the area studied. Those substances contribute to acid rain, and the projection suggests Alberta will be forced to confront whether it is willing to act in the name of the environment, or move the yardsticks to preserve its bedrock industry.…

The Shell document suggests the impact of the emissions will be tangible, identifying 23 lakes that will exceed their “critical load” for acidity.

High acidity can deaden a lake over time. With proper monitoring, impacts can be seen inside of a decade, and “as acidification progresses, eventually all fishes and molluscs are eliminated and biodiversity can be reduced considerably,” said David Schindler, a University of Alberta professor who is a leading expert on water in the province.

Though the impact of the Jackpine expansion itself is relatively small against the broad landscape, Shell says between its mine and other projects, some 9e per cent of wetlands and forests in the region will be lost or altered. Animals will also be affected. The Shell document catalogues an expected habitat decline of 34 per cent for barred owls, 13 per cent for beavers, 11 per cent for black bears, 19 per cent for Canada lynx, 49 per cent for Canada warblers, 18 per cent for wolverines and, most strikingly, the potential clearing of woodland caribou, a threatened species, from the area.

“Woodland caribou populations appear to be declining to extirpation,” the document says.

If those impacts aren’t  enough for Albertans to think twice about the current direction, the rule of law might be. I think Simon Dyer at Pembina sums it up nicely in the article when he notes:

Regulators “will need to start turning down projects to stay under the limits, or they’re seriously going to have to ratchet back on the performance of all the existing operators to try to get those pollutants down to levels to enable the industry to grow.”

Even as tar sands boosters in the US downplay the impacts of tar sands, the truth is getting harder and harder to ignore. Lakes rendered incapable of supporting life and extirpated critters undercut the industry’s rhetoric.

Josh Mogerman is Deputy Director of NRDC’s national media program. This piece was originally published at NRDC’s Switchboard and was reprinted with permission.

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