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Security

Israeli Experts Reject Issuing ‘Red Lines’ On Iran

Two Israeli experts on Friday questioned the necessity of setting “red lines” for the Iranian nuclear program — the point Iran’s nuclear program reaches that would trigger a U.S. military attack.

Meir Javedanfar, a lecturer at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel, and Shlomo Brom, a former high-ranking official in the Israeli army, were responding to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech last month at the U.N. (and some on the American right), in which he called for the international community to set a clear “red line” on the Iranian nuclear program. Both Javedanfar and Brom spoke at a Center for American Progress event on the status of the U.S.-Israel cooperation on Iran.

Brom said that “red lines” are counterproductive, claiming that they “provoke the other party to try and check the limits of his maneuverability…so all they do usually is that they reach the red line and cross it a little bit and see what the direct action is.” In other words, he said, “you cause the other party to try to test you.” Brom also made the point that “red lines” typically tend to be anything but rigid as circumstances and “other considerations” can change. In the long run “red lines,” according to Brom, only serve to make the country that creates them “lose credibility” with the other party.

Javedanfar, an Iranian-Israeli expert, said that the importance of “red lines” is overblown and that President Obama has already stated that he doesn’t support a containment policy for Iran, ruling out the need to publicly discuss additional “red lines.” Besides, he said, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors currently in Iran would make the international community aware if the Iranians push to enrich uranium to higher purity needed for a bomb:

It’s going to be very obvious. They will need that enriched uranium in Fordow to make a bomb and if they want to use it they are going to have to kick out the IAEA inspectors; and there we will all be aware that the Iranian regime has started making a bomb.”

To Javedanfar, the presence of inspectors and President Obama’s rejection of a containment strategy makes any criticism of the administration’s lack of “red lines” a moot point. Instead, Javedanfar says the focus should be elsewhere: “It would serve Israeli and U.S. interests more if we talked about Iran…instead of having this conversation and having diagrams being drawn in the U.N.,” adding that the Iranians are clearly “treading very carefully” and that, “red lines are important but cooperation is far more important.”

The Israeli experts’ assessments echoed that of Former Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff and Air Force Lieutenant General Dan Halutz, who said recently that red-lines are counterproductive.

The Obama administration, along with its European allies, determine that an Iran with a nuclear weapon is a threat and have implemented several rounds of crippling sanctions aimed at finding a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis. The sanctions have resulted in an estimated loss of $48 billion a year in oil revenues, or 10 percent of the economy and $133 million a day in oil money. One oil analyst told Bloomberg that sanctions have “been an unqualified success.” U.S., Israeli and U.N. officials have repeatedly pointed out that Iran has not yet decided to pursue a nuclear weapon.

Climate Progress

Ten Charts That Make Clear The Planet Just Keeps Warming

skeptics v realists v3

Perhaps you thought that the whole “planet isn’t warming” meme was killed by this summer’s bombshell Koch-funded study. After all, it found ”global warming is real,” “on the high end” and “essentially all” due to carbon pollution.

Sadly, denial springs eternal. Long-debunked denier David Rose has an article in the Daily Mail, “Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released … and here is the chart to prove it.”

The piece is so misleading, even the UK Met Office felt a need to instantly debunk it with a blog post that included this chart.

UK Met Office graph showing years ranked in order of global temperature.

Since Rose managed to find one misleading chart to push his myth, I thought I would dig up ten serious ones that show the reverse, including the top chart from Skeptical Science, the great Australian blog, which is derived from the data in the Koch-funded study.

Note: “Skeptics” is an Aussie word for denier or disinformer. The British have their own words — Rose or Mail:

So one has to assume going in that any climate piece in the Mail with Rose’s name on it is somewhere between misinformation and disinformation. The latest piece tends toward the latter. Heck, even Judith Curry complains she was misquoted, as Media Matters notes.

The Met Office, part of the UK Defence Ministry, explained, it’s absurd to look at a cherry-picked “trend from August 1997 (in the middle of an exceptionally strong El Nino) to August 2012 (coming at the tail end of a double-dip La Nina)”:

As we’ve stressed before, choosing a starting or end point on short-term scales can be very misleading. Climate change can only be detected from multi-decadal timescales due to the inherent variability in the climate system. If you use a longer period from HadCRUT4 the trend looks very different. For example, 1979 to 2011 shows 0.16°C/decade (or 0.15°C/decade in the NCDC dataset, 0.16°C/decade in GISS). Looking at successive decades over this period, each decade was warmer than the previous – so the 1990s were warmer than the 1980s, and the 2000s were warmer than both. Eight of the top ten warmest years have occurred in the last decade.

Over the last 140 years global surface temperatures have risen by about 0.8ºC. However, within this record there have been several periods lasting a decade or more during which temperatures have risen very slowly or cooled. The current period of reduced warming is not unprecedented and 15 year long periods are not unusual.

The warming trend is clear in a chart from an earlier Met Office post “Noughties confirmed as the warmest decade on record“:

Here’s an analogy to the notion it hasn’t warmed from the El-Nino-fueled summer of 1997 through the La-Nina-cooled summer of 2012. Imagine your kid got 11 B’s and 1 A+ in 9th grade science class. Then, in 10th grade science, she gets 9 A’s and 2 A+’s — but her last grade was “just” an A. Would you say she is doing better in science class or worse in science class?

If you prefer your charts from U.S. agencies using the good ‘ole Fahrenheit scale, here’s NOAA’s version of the previous chart, which notes “Every year of 2000s [was] warmer than 1990s average”:

Read more

Election

Michigan Congressional Candidate Thinks He Is Santa Claus

Republican Congressional candidate Kerry Bentivolio.

Christmas revelers better think twice about voting against Republican candidate Kerry Bentivolio in his bid to replace former Rep. Thad McCotter in Michigan’s 11th congressional district; they might end up on his naughty list.

The Detroit Free Press documented Bentivolio’s extensive career as a Santa Claus impersonator, offering up such ornamental details like the names of two of his live reindeer — Rumples and Aurora — that are responsible for pulling his sled. Bentivolio’s Santa fixation crosses over from quirky to troubling, however. A lawsuit he filed against a former client of his bankrupt housing business revealed that Bentivolio has trouble differentiating between himself and his Santa Clause alter ego:

“I have a problem figuring out which one I really am, Santa Claus or Kerry Bentivolio,” he said in his deposition. “All my life I have been told I’m Kerry Bentivolio, and now, I am a Santa Claus, so now I prefer to be Santa Claus.”

His days as Santa almost got off to a promising start when he received an invite to appear as Saint Nick at the White House. But after he called a news conference to announce his good fortune, a former vendor who was owed money by Bentivolio called the White House to complain, and his trip to the nation’s capital was nixed. He sued the vendor, her husband and two newspapers who covered the whole debacle for $1 million, hoping to strike gold.

During the trial, Bentivolio took to referring to himself as “we” instead of “I,” until the court asked him to stop.

His campaign did not return requests for comment, but this may prove to be quite the gift to Bentivolio’s Democratic challenger Syed Taj.

Health

Musician Takes #InsurancePoll On Twitter, Gets 140-Character Stories Of The Uninsured

Amanda Palmer, a musician from the band The Dresden Dolls, was riding the train last night when she tweeted a story about not having insurance.

“most small-to-mid-level musicians i know don’t have health insurance,” she wrote. “some musicians find tricky ways, some pay, most take the risk & pray. when i was in my early twenties, buying my own insurance would have been equal half my rent. it just didn’t seem like an option. my parents had just watched the death of my step-brother (uninsured when stricken with a disease) almost destroy the family bank, and so they DEMANDED i get insurance.”

Her followers responded in droves with tweets about their own stories of not having insurance. And so Palmer followed up:

The message went viral, and Palmer ended up with thousands upon thousands of responses from people around the world explaining how much their insurance cost — if they had any at all:

Tweeters Tell Their Health Care Stories

Storified by ThinkProgress · Mon, Oct 15 2012 11:20:31

@amandapalmer 1. US. 2. Call center/student. 3. No. 4. Premium costs too much, & deductible is prohibitive anyway.Deborah
@amandapalmer I got married when I got pregnant at 18 for insurance. He was abusive but I stayed 17 yearsflowerbudd
@amandapalmer 1)USA 2)NURSE 3) no 4) not offered through my agency and too expensive for private. (and I’m asthmatic) #InsurancePollSwitch65
@amandapalmer 1. USA. 2. Librarian. 3. Yes, but only because I’m still on my parents. After the end of this month I won’t be.S.
. @amandapalmer 1) US 2) artist 3) yes 4) $1800 a month for 2 of us under our small business plan (more than our rent!) #insurancepollarmyoftoys
@amandapalmer Was working as a writer for Wired for 40 hours/week for several months, in an office. No health insurance given #insurancepollGeeta Dayal
@amandapalmer 1) US 2) Web Developer for a non-profit 3) Yes, covered 100% by job (medical, dental, vision)Jose Marquez
.@amandapalmer 1: NZ 2: CEO 3: Don’t need to be 4: Public health FTW!paulbrislen
@amandapalmer US, clerk, no, can’t afford/denied by stateGabe Harrison
@amandapalmer 1) USA 2) independent artist 3) NO 4) Can’t afford it- I’m single Mom in her 40s, daughter in college.Susan Tooker
@amandapalmer 1)US 2)Musician 3) Yes. Because I just married someone with it at her work, After almost 5 years without.John Dahlman
@amandapalmer I got married when I got pregnant at 18 for insurance. He was abusive but I stayed 17 yearsflowerbudd
@amandapalmer 1) US 2) office worker 3) yes 4) $160/mo (job covers half) for catastrophic care policy with a $3000 deductibleGeoffrey Phillips
@amandapalmer 1.Canada 2. Illustrator/Part-Time Comp Tech 3. YES 4. Government SPP + Employer coverage: totals $72/month #InsurancePollMariella Vee
1) USA 2) IT Specialist (Fed) 3) Yes 4) $660/mo through employer (which covers 60% of that cost) #InsurancePollMichael Charboneau
from hamburg, germany RT @nat_worxreading all the #insurancePoll tweets is informative and makes me sad for the people in the USAAmanda Palmer
@amandapalmer #InsurancePoll 1) USA 2) Lost my job 3) No 4) Cost over $500/mnth for COBRA. fUnemployment is only $214/week for me & 2 kids.Wendy Lady

Palmer said that she’s currently working with a Twitter follower to compile all of the data she received, and she plans to post more information when it’s ready. But she did share some preliminary findings from her first 156 respondents, including the fact that about a quarter of the U.S. respondents did not have health insurance due to its high cost. Her findings are about in line with what has been reported about the uninsured: Many cannot afford insurance, or haven’t factored into their budgets spending such a huge amount on health care. On the bright side, the stories of the uninsured could change once Obamacare is fully in place. The landmark health care reform law is expected to decrease the number of people who lack coverage by 33 million.

Election

How Paul Ryan Pretended To Volunteer At A Soup Kitchen

Between Mitt Romney’s claim that 47 percent of the country “believe they are entitled to” government assistance to afford food and Paul Ryan’s assertion that people on food stamps are “takers, the entire Romney campaign has cemented the impression that they are “not concerned about the very poor.”

Ryan might have topped any previous callousness though, when he and his staff apparently “ramrodded their way” into a soup kitchen last week for a photo opportunity without even actually volunteering.

President of the Mahoning County St. Vincent De Paul Society, Brian J. Antal, told the Washington Post that he had no interest in making his organization a political talking point: “we are apolitical because the majority of our funding is from private donations… It’s strictly in our bylaws not to do it. They showed up there and they did not have permission. They got one of the volunteers to open up the doors… The photo-op they did wasn’t even accurate. He did nothing. He just came in here to get his picture taken at the dining hall.”

Security

UPDATED: What Everyone Should Know About The Benghazi Attack

Six weeks following the assault on a U.S. diplomatic outpost in Libya, many questions remain regarding the nature of the attacks, what the Obama administration knew and when, and the way that knowledge was delivered to the public. Adding to that confusion is the GOP’s desire to politicize the issue in the run-up to the presidential election.

Mitt Romney was widely scorned for criticizing Obama in the assault’s immediate aftermath for allegedly sympathizing with the attackers. But days later, Romney, his allies and other pundits found an opening to again criticize the administration. U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice claimed that the attack in Libya was an outgrowth of the protests in Cairo against an anti-Muslim film. But the administration’s story soon changed.

This shift in story — while always likely given the nature of intelligence — launched a new round of condemnation against Obama. Accusations and speculation of administration lies and cover-ups have been the major focus of the narrative since then.

But the reality is much more nuanced than what the built-up narrative suggests. The following is a timeline of not the attack itself, but the response to it, by the Obama administration, Mitt Romney’s campaign and the right-wing:

THE IMMEDIATE AFTERMATH

September 11, 2012: Protests take place at the U.S. embassy in Cairo. The anger was reportedly sparked by a video, purported to be the trailer of a full-length movie, called “The Innocence of Muslims,” that portrayed Islam in a highly negative and derogatory light. This demonstration will soon spread to other cities throughout the Middle East, including Khartoum, Sanaa and Tunis.

September 11: Dozens of armed militants launch an attack on an American diplomatic outpost in the Libyan city Benghazi.

September 11: Governor Mitt Romney’s campaign issues a statement condemning the Obama administration’s response to the global protests:

ROMNEY: “I’m outraged by the attacks on American diplomatic missions in Libya and Egypt and by the death of an American consulate worker in Benghazi. It’s disgraceful that the Obama administration’s first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks.”

September 12: Initial reports surface that Ambassador Chris Stevens has been killed, along with other American citizens. The story of how continues to shift throughout day as details emerge.

September 12: In the immediate aftermath of news of Ambassador Stevens’ death, Republicans criticized the Romney campaign’s statement. But the campaign stuck to its attack. When asked about the statement, Romney foreign policy advisor Richard Williamson, replied, “It was accurate.”

September 12: The New York Times reports that “[f]ighters involved in the assault…said in interviews during the battle that they were moved to attack the mission by anger over a 14-minute, American-made video that depicted the Prophet Muhammad, Islam’s founder, as a villainous, homosexual and child-molesting buffoon.” The Times continues to stand by its story.

September 12: President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton give remarks on the death of Ambassador Stevens and others. Both pledge justice against the perpetrators of the attacks. In his speech, Obama refers to the attack as an “act of terror”:

OBAMA: No acts of terror will ever shake the resolve of this great nation, alter that character, or eclipse the light of the values that we stand for. Today we mourn four more Americans who represent the very best of the United States of America. We will not waver in our commitment to see that justice is done for this terrible act. And make no mistake, justice will be done.

September 13: White House Press Secretary Jay Carney says during a press briefing and a later press gaggle that the protests around the world were due to reaction to the video. In the gaggle, Carney made clear he didn’t want to speculate in light of the ongoing investigation. His remarks were later taken to mean that the Benghazi attack was based on video.

September 13: President Obama, at a campaign rally in Denver, CO, reiterates the previous day’s statement, referring to the events in Benghazi as an act of terror:

OBAMA: So what I want all of you to know is that we are going to bring those who killed our fellow Americans to justice. I want people around the world to hear me: To all those who would do us harm, no act of terror will go unpunished. It will not dim the light of the values that we proudly present to the rest of the world. No act of violence shakes the resolve of the United States of America.

Read more

Alyssa

‘Mockingbird Lane,’ And Network’s Competition With Cable

Last week, I wrote about four things that network television needed to do to recover its sense of independent identity instead of losing its mojo chasing after cable. I thought of that post again when I saw the trailer for Mockingbird Lane, NBC’s reboot of The Munsters, on which it spent a reported $10 million, and which it is airing as a Halloween special:

Mockingbird Lane looks exactly like the kind of thing that a network shouldn’t be doing: it was probably unsustainably expensive, it was a reboot of a concept no one was dying for, it had a ton of special effects that would have been unsustainable over the long term, it would never have been able to be as frightening or as sexually disturbing as American Horror Story. It’s not yet clear if NBC has given up on turning Mockingbird Lane into a series or if this airing is a test to see what kind of audience would turn out for the show. But it’s probably a good idea not to get into an arms race with cable while you’re still digging yourself out of a ratings hole, and when you don’t have subscription revenue to fall back on.

Economy

GOP Priorities: Raising Taxes On 13 Million Low-Income Households, Cutting Them For 7,000 Wealthy Estates

A mere 7,450 of the wealthiest estates in the country could receive an average tax break of $1.1 million in 2013, while over 13 million low-income families could see their tax burden increase by $1,000 or more, if proposals by the GOP were to go into effect, according to the Center On Budget and Policy Priorities. The legislation, drawn up by Senate Republicans and already passed by House Republicans, would preserve through next year a cut to the estate tax that was enacted in the December 2010 tax deal. Meanwhile, it would allow expansions of the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit passed in that same deal to expire.

As the CBPP noted today, the asymmetry in who would and would not benefit from these proposals, and by how much, is striking:

Relative to the 2009 estate-tax parameters, the estate-tax break enacted at the end of 2010 benefits only the heirs of estates that have assets in excess of $3.5 million for an individual and $7 million for a couple. 

For the estates that receive it, the estate-tax break enacted in 2010 is worth an average of $1.1 million per estate, relative to the 2009 parameters, according to the Tax Policy Center. […]

For many lower-income working families, the impact of losing the tax-credit improvements would be substantial. For instance, a married couple with three children that has earnings at the estimated poverty line for 2013 ($27,713 for a family of that size) will receive $1,934 less in combined CTC and EITC benefits next year if policymakers let the improvements expire.  Similarly, a single mother with two children working full time at the minimum wage — and earning about $14,000 — will receive a CTC of just $173 in 2013 instead of $1,725.

The cost of continuing the EITC and CTC through 2013 comes out to $3.4 billion and $7.6 billion respectively, for a total of $11 billion. The cost of the estate tax cut for its original two year period was $23 billion, suggesting an extension for another year would roughly equal the cost of extending the tax credits.

In short, the Republicans are proposing to recoup new revenue by raising taxes on 13 million American families, while losing roughly the same amount of revenue in order to give a minute, rarified group of the wealthiest Americans another year of enormous tax cuts.

NEWS FLASH

Debt Collector Allegedly Tells Disabled Vet ‘You Should Have Died’ After Illegally Seizing Savings | A disabled veteran is suing Gurstel Chargo, a debt collection agency that allegedly illegally seized his savings to pay off a $6,000 defaulted student loan. According to his complaint, Michael Collier was rendered 100 percent disabled from spine and head injuries received during his time in the Army, a condition that exempts him from debt garnishment on Social Security payments. Collier says that when he asked for his money back, a paralegal at the agency told him, “If you would have served our country better you would not be a disabled veteran living off Social Security while the rest of us honest Americans work our ass off. Too bad; you should have died.”

Election

Linda McMahon: Catholic Hospitals Should Be Allowed To Deny Emergency Contraception To Rape Victims

Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon has kept up in the polls with her Democratic opponent, Chris Murphy, largely by trying to paint herself as a pro-choice moderate in blue Connecticut. McMahon eagerly denounced Mitt Romney’s comments that 47 percent of the country will never “take personal responsibility,” claimed Todd Akin’s dismissal of “legitimate rape” pregnancies was “reprehensible,” and reversed herself by suddenly supporting a national law for same-sex marriage. In an editorial board meeting with the Hartford Courant on Friday, however, McMahon undermined her purportedly moderate image with a decidedly anti-choice position.

When presented with a hypothetical in which a rape victim is denied emergency contraception in a Catholic hospital, McMahon asserted that hospital should be allowed to deny the medication, even if it receives federal funds:

COURANT: So a rape victim, in a hospital. And it’s a hospital that is run by a Catholic institution. Emergency contraception, should that be—should she be sent to another hospital in the middle of the night when she’s in dire distress?

MCMAHON: I don’t think that the government should overreach. I mean it’s a separation of church and state in my view, and I think that a religious institution has the right to decide what its policies would be in that, in that case.

COURANT: Yeah and I respect that, I just wonder if that institution, gets a certain, a majority of it’s money from the government, if it’s mostly federally funded, does that play a role in your thinking?

MCMAHON: Well I just think again, that it is an issue of separation of church and state, and that institution should decide what its role would be, and what it’s comfortable with doing in that instance.

Watch it:

McMahon claims she is pro-choice, even though she supported the failed Blunt Amendment, which would have allowed any employer to refuse any kind of health care on moral grounds. The Murphy campaign has also pointed out in attack ads that McMahon built her fortune on the World Wrestling Entertainment network’s sexualized spectacles glorifying violence against women and rape. So far, women continue to favor Murphy over McMahon, and women’s rights advocates have condemned the Republican for her plan to eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood.

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