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NEWS FLASH

BREAKING: Three Bush-Appointed Judges Give Thumbs Up To Voter Disenfranchisement In Ohio | Late last week, a federal district court ordered Ohio to stop disenfranchising voters who are directed to vote at the wrong polling place due to poll worker error. Earlier today, a severely conservative panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit stayed this order, ruling that Ohio may disenfranchise these voters — even when their error is due to false instructions from a poll worker — because they believed allowing these votes to be counted would “absolve[] voters of all responsibility for voting in the correct precinct.” The panel included Judges Julia Smith Gibbons and Deborah Cook, both George W. Bush appointees, and Judge Lee Rosenthal, a George H.W. Bush appointee.

Election

Conservatives Bash Christie For Cooperating With Obama Post-Sandy

A roller coaster in Seaside Heights, NJ sits in the ocean after Sandy

As New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (R) joined President Obama today to survey the devastated shores of the New Jersey coastline, conservative commentators launched into political attacks, calling him “fat and a fool,” and claiming that the tour of the damage was a shared campaign event.

Conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh, who normally reserves his derision for Democrats, went so far as to say of Christie: “He’s fat and a fool. Don’t listen to Governor Christie. He doesn’t know what he’s talking about.” But Limbaugh clinched the quote with his reasoning for being so vicious: “He makes fun of me all the time.”

A writer for the right-wing Daily Caller, Matt Lewis, hopped onto the anti-Christie bandwagon as well, in a post titled “What’s Chris Christie up to?” Lewis called Christie “a prop for Obama’s re-election” and speculated that there must be some kind of “Christie/Romney schism.”

The right wing fodder site Drudge Report also attacked Christie, though it took its usual, more inflammatory tone to do so:

No one can figure out exactly what is going through Christie’s head, but it’s certainly not impossible that the lifelong Jersey boy truly is concerned about his state first, and his party second. Giving warranted praise to a President who does his job well is not exactly treason to his party — especially since Christie was the Republican National Convention speaker, and many Republicans have expressed hope that he runs for national office in the future.

Health

GOP Candidate Opposes Abortion Exception In Cases Of ‘The Rape Thing’

John Koster, a Republican running for Congress in Washington, became the latest candidate to opine on abortion exceptions in cases of rape and incest over the weekend at a fundraiser with Rep. Tom Price (R-GA). Koster said he would support abortion only if the woman’s life was in danger, but would not extend the same right to women who are survivors of incest or “the rape thing,” as he casually termed it. To justify his opposition, Koster insisted that incest is rare and argued that abortion would only further hurt rape survivors:

Incest is so rare, I mean, it’s so rare. But the rape thing…you know, I know a woman who was raped and kept her child, gave it up for adoption, she doesn’t regret it. In fact, she’s a big pro-life proponent. But on the rape thing, it’s like, how does putting more violence onto a woman’s body and taking the life of an innocent child that’s the consequence of this crime, how does that make it better? You know what I mean?

Koster’s comments are similar to those of Senate candidate Richard Mourdock (R-IN), who recently said that rape pregnancies are “a gift from God,” and Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO), who claimed women could not get pregnant from “legitimate rape.” In fact, Koster is very much in the Republican mainstream, as a growing number of Republican candidates call for tighter restrictions on the reproductive rights of rape victims.

Justice

How Much Police Activity Can Be Justified By Drug-Sniffing Dogs?

Drug-sniffing dogs have been a staple of police work for years, particularly because courts have historically given police broad discretion to use the dogs. But two challenges before the U.S. Supreme Court Wednesday are questioning the limits of dog sniffs, arguing that police have gone too far in allowing drug-sniffing dogs to go anywhere — even to private homes — and to justify anything — even a search of someone’s car.

In one of the two cases before the court, police used the “alert” that a dog gives when it detects drugs as the basis for conducting a warrantless search of a car during a traffic stop. The Supreme Court already held in 2005 that police could use a drug-sniffing dog during a traffic stop without any probable cause. In this case, police seek to take that a step further and allow that sniff alone to justify a subsequent search. Police have typically argued that the risks associated with drug dogs are small, because they are only sniffing for illegal substances, and are not revealing any other private information. But a drug sniff imposes new risks when it justifies a much broader search of a vehicle – particularly when that dog’s findings are not particularly reliable. As Justice David Souter pointed out in his dissent in the 2005 case, the olfactory skills of dogs are not as reliable as they are widely presumed to be:

The infallible dog … is a creature of legal fiction. Although the Supreme Court of Illinois did not get into the sniffing averages of drug dogs, their supposed infallibility is belied by judicial opinions describing well-trained animals sniffing and alerting with less than perfect accuracy, whether owing to errors by their handlers, the limitations of the dogs themselves, or even the pervasive contamination of currency by cocaine. … In practical terms, the evidence is clear that the dog that alerts hundreds of times will be wrong dozens of times.

Souter cites a range of cases showing that the false positive rates for drug dogs can be as high as 60 percent. What’s more, there are no national standards for acceptable success rates nor for what type of training is sufficient, leaving open the possibility that a drug-sniffing dog is sometimes just a cover for widespread searches that could not otherwise be justified by police.

In the second case the justices are considering, the issue is whether any probable cause is needed to justify a dog sniff search at the front door of a person’s private home. Although the dog is not permitted to go inside the home, the defendants argue that the dog sniff is an embarrassing privacy invasion at a particularly sacrosanct location. What’s more, if this type of police activity is justified without any reason for suspicion, what’s to stop police from just walking down streets and through apartment buildings with drug dogs in tow?

Taken together, these two cases demonstrate the magnitude of intervention that can be justified by the presence of drug dogs in the drastically unsuccessful War on Drugs. As a constitutional matter, a practice with such a high error rate should not alone be used to justify searches with no other suspicion requirement. But as a policy matter, what is alarming is that the War on Drugs is still being used to justify increasingly invasive policing.

New FBI statistics show that more people were arrested for drugs in 2011 than for anything else, including a large proportion for mere possession of marijuana. This War on Drugs has played a significant role in earning the United States the title of highest incarceration rate in the world, while exorbitant spending on this so-called war has hardly decreased drug use.

Economy

On Halloween, Candy Manufacturers Try To End Sugar Subsidies

Within the now-expired farm bill that has been stuck in the House due to Republican obstruction is a program to help support the U.S. sugar industry. If the bill comes up during a lame duck congressional session, then critics of the sugar program want it to be struck from the bill.

Now, candy makers are using Halloween to drum up opposition to the sugar subsidies. In a press release, the Coalition for Sugar Reform called the sugar program “one of the last Depression-era ghosts,” according to The Hill:

The colorful flyer argues that the U.S. sugar program is costing consumers $3.5 billion a year through higher prices and puts 600,000 food processing jobs at risk.

The sugar program supports sugar beet and sugarcane growers by restricting imports of sugar. It also limits the amount of domestic sugar that can be sold as long as imports remain low.

The American Sugar Alliance, which represents farmers, has argued that sugar program does not affect the budget and that removing support for sugar farmers could make the U.S. overly dependent on imports.

“It’s surprising that lobbyists for some of the most profitable food companies in the world have instead focused on scoring cheap political points, putting U.S. farmers out of business, importing more subsidized foreign sugar, and boosting their already bloated profits,” said alliance spokesman Phillip Hayes. Regardless of what the sugar industry says about the subsidies, 46 senators voted to end the sugar program when the Senate considered the farm bill earlier this year — up from 29 in 2001.

The U.S. sugar program props up the nation’s sugar industry through import limitations and tariffs. A 2006 Commerce Department study found that three manufacturing jobs are lost for every one sugar-growing job that is saved through the artificially high sugar prices.

Additionally, the U.S. spends $4.9 billion each year in “direct payment” subsidies to farmers of certain crops. But instead of fulfilling the goal of giving small farmers “income stability,” the subsidies go to high-income owners of select croplands who are already enjoying high commodity prices and profits, according to analysis by the Center for American Progress. If Congress gradually phased out the subsidies, then this funding could be used for deficit reduction as well as farm-based clean energy projects, rural home modernizations, biofuel crop cultivation, and agricultural exports.

NEWS FLASH

POLL: 69 Percent Of Texans Support Legal Recognition For Gay Couples | A new poll from the University of Texas/Texas Tribune finds that 69 percent of Texans support legal recognition of same-sex couples, either through marriage (36 percent) or civil unions (33 percent), with only 25 percent opposed to any recognition. The Tribune points out that this could also be read as “58 percent are against same-sex marriage,” reflecting a flaw in how the question was asked. While measuring support for civil unions is worthwhile, polls that don’t force respondents to choose between marriage equality and no recognition paint an incomplete picture of public sentiment. Still, the growing support for same-sex couples and their families is encouraging (HT: Dallas Voice).

Health

In Ongoing Assault Against Planned Parenthood, Texas Governor Misleads Women About Their Doctors

Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) convened a press conference today to announce the creation of a fully state-funded Women’s Health Program for Medicaid recipients, but his political theater only served to obscure the truth about women’s health services in Texas.

Earlier this year, Texas announced its intention to fund the Medicaid providers in its Women’s Health Program solely through the state as a method of defunding local Planned Parenthood affiliates. Since states are not allowed to withhold federal Medicaid funds from qualified providers like Planned Parenthood, Texas legislators needed to find a workaround to continue to exclude the national health organization — which they chose to target as an “abortion affiliate,” even though abortion services represent just three percent of its total medical care — from the Women Health’s Program.

But even though Perry claimed his state is “ready” to begin fully funding the Women’s Health Program today — and even rolled out a new logo for the program — the Associated Press confirmed that they will not actually do so until Medicaid providers stop receiving federal funding. Since federal funding is guaranteed through the end of this year, Texas’ Planned Parenthood affiliates will continue to receive their full Medicaid funds until December 31. In a press release, Planned Parenthood officials celebrated the fact that their organization will be able to keep its doors open to the thousands of low-income women it serves:

Despite confusing statements from state officials, today’s announcement means that Planned Parenthood can continue to be a part of the Women’s Health Program as long as the “Affiliate Ban Rule” remains blocked by court order. Planned Parenthood and WHP patients expressed relief upon the announcement that tens of thousands of Texas women will not yet experience a disruption in WHP services, including breast and cervical cancer screenings, birth control, and testing for sexually transmitted infections.

“Today’s announcement is an important victory for every woman who relies on the Women’s Health Program for basic, preventive health care,” said Ken S. Lambrecht, President and CEO of Planned Parenthood of Greater Texas. “Our doors remain open today and always to every Texas woman in need of affordable, high quality health care.”

Planned Parenthood filed a state lawsuit last week that blocks Texas from shutting down the Women’s Health Program altogether and preserves the organization’s federal funding for now. But thanks to the complicated legal battle that the national health organization is currently embroiled in, the future of the funding for its Texas affiliates remains unclear. Planned Parenthood officials say that Texas state law clearly stipulates that the Women’s Health Program needs to be funded federally — not on a state level, as Perry and his HHS Department are pushing for — so Texas lawmakers’ politically-motivated attacks on women’s health clinics will fall flat in court. Planned Parenthood’s next court date is set for November 8.

Ultimately, Perry is only serving to confuse the low-income women in Texas about the health care providers they can access through their Medicaid plans. Planned Parenthood is currently Texas’ largest Medicaid provider, serving tens of thousands of women across the state who often have no other means to access health insurance, and women deserve to know they can continue receiving critical health services at Planned Parenthood clinics in 2012.

Alyssa

ThinkProgress Has A Mobile App!

If you have an iPhone or an iPad, and you like political news and exceedingly dorky writing about Star Wars (which you probably do because come on, you’re reading this), you should totally get our new app! Our awesome development team has been working on this for a while, and because I know the mobile site can be a little finicky, I think you’ll find this a considerable improvement. It’s not quite candy, but Happy Halloween!

Climate Progress

How Does Climate Change Make Superstorms Like Sandy More Destructive?

I am scheduled to be on the PBS Newshour tonight on Sandy.

Satellite image of Superstorm Sandy taken at 10 am EDT Tuesday. Image NASA GSFC via Masters.

Climate science explains how global warming can make a superstorms like Sandy more destructive in several ways:

  1. Warming-driven sea level rise makes storm surges more destructive. In fact, a recent study found “The sea level on a stretch of the US Atlantic coast that features the cities of New York, Norfolk and Boston is rising up to four times faster than the global average.”
  2. “Owing to higher SSTs [sea surface temperatures] from human activities, the increased water vapor in the atmosphere leads to 5 to 10% more rainfall and increases the risk of flooding,” as Kevin Trenberth explained to me in a 2011 email about Hurricane Irene. He elaborates on that point for Sandy here and for all superstorms in this article.
  3. “However, because water vapor and higher ocean temperatures help fuel the storm, it is likely to be more intense and bigger as well,” Trenberth added (see another of his articles here). Relatedly, warming also extends the range of warm SSTs, which can help sustain the strength of a hurricane as it steers on a northerly track into cooler water (much as apparently happened for Irene). September had the second highest global ocean temperatures on record and the Eastern seaboard was 5°F warmer than average (with global warming  responsible for about 1°F of that).
  4. The unusual path of the storm — into the heavily populated east coast rather than out to see — was caused by a very strong blocking high pressure system that recent studies have linked to warming.  Meteorologist and former Hurricane Hunter Jeff Masters has an excellent analysis of this, “Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?

I have put these in order from most scientific certainty to least. The first two — the impact of sea level rise and increased water vapor — are unequivocal. The third is extremely likely. The fourth is more speculative.

Remember, climate scientists and others have for quite some time been warning New York City that climate change was dramatically increasing the odds of a devastating storm surge — see Greg Laden’s post, “Peer Reviewed Research Predicted NYC Subway Flooding by #Sandy.” See also today’s NY Times story, “For Years, Warnings That It Could Happen Here.” Also a brand new study of storm surges since 1923 finds “that Katrina-magnitude events have been twice as frequent in warm years compared with cold years” — so more severe surges are on the way.

And that’s the other key reason we must make the connection to climate change: Scientists worst-case scenarios are already happening — so their latest findings deserve attention so that Sandy doesn’t become just another Cassandra whose warnings are ignored. Now climate scientists project that we risk up to 10 times as much warming this century as in the last 50 years — with many devastating consequences from dramatic sea level rise to Dust-Bowlification (see my review of more than 60 recent studies).

That means the 4 factors described above are going to have a greater and greater impact over time. That’s one of the many, many reasons we must act to reduce emissions ASAP, so we don’t keep getting “new normals” that ultimately make Sandy and Irene seem tame.

The media coverage of the link between Sandy and climate change started (too) slowly, as Climate Progress reported, but has vastly improved. NBC News in particular had a great story with Trenberth that touched on the points above.

Unfortunately, while more of the media are getting the story right, some are still not.

Read more

Economy

How Will Hurricane Sandy Affect Economic Growth?

Early estimates of the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy have ranged from $20 billion up to $50 billion, with about $8 billion covered by insurance and the rest foisted upon governments in the form of destroyed infrastructure. According to an analysis by economists at IHS Global Insights, Hurricane Sandy may knock up to 0.6 percent off of GDP growth in the 4th quarter of this year:

On a national scale, $30 billion to $50 billion in economics losses would represent about 0.2% to 0.3% of nominal GDP. Part of these losses will eventually be made up by reconstruction activity, but it would be naïve to put forward the view that a hurricane is in some sense a stimulus for the economy. There’s no guarantee that reconstruction activity will be extra activity, on top of what would otherwise have occurred, rather than a substitute for that activity. [...]

The effect on growth for the fourth quarter will not be catastrophic but might still be noticeable, especially in an economy with little momentum anyway. Suppose that the affected regions lose just 25% of their overall output for two days that is not recoverable later. That would knock about $25 billion annualized ($6 billion actual) off GDP, and could take as much as 0.6 percentage points off annualized fourth-quarter real GDP growth rate.

Economists at Wells Fargo, meanwhile, estimate that “the storm may reduce gross domestic product by as much as 0.2 percentage points this quarter.” Economists at Moody’s Analytics, said the economic effect will be “noticeable but temporary.” “While natural disasters take a large initial toll on the economy,” Moody’s Ryan Sweet said, “they usually generate some extra activity afterward. We expect any lost output this week from Hurricane Sandy will be made up in subsequent weeks, minimizing the effect on fourth quarter GDP.”

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